Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[conon394]

On the actual war. Seems like the Russians are going all in on Avdiivka and willing to accept pretty appalling losses to do so. Unless one is the force negotiations camp now I do hope the Biden admin is sending cluster munitions ASAP and valuing them at zero dollars or just their weight as scrap. Right now Avdiivka has a fair amount of political symbolism for both sides. When that happened at Backmut I think Ukraine lost sight of how long to cling on to the place. For the moment Russia is clearly paying a high cost if it evens out Ukraine should displace orderly.

[PointOfViewGun]

Places like Bakhmut or Avdiivka are priceless for Ukraine primarily because of Russia's willingness to waste resources. The price Russia pays there takes away from their ability to defend against Ukraine elsewhere.

[Ludicus]

'Tiredness on all sides' over war in Ukraine, Italian PM tells

The Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, told a prank caller posing as an African leader there was “a lot of tiredness” over the war in Ukraine
“There is a lot of tiredness on all sides,” Meloni is heard saying regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine. “The moment is approaching when everyone will understand that we need a way out.
“Ukraine’s counteroffensive is not going as expected … It has not changed the fate of the conflict, and everyone understands that [the conflict] could last many years if we don’t find a solution. The Ukrainians are doing what they have to do and we are trying to help them.”
The problem, Meloni said, was “finding a way out that is acceptable for both sides without destroying international law”.
Publicly, Meloni has always been staunch in her support of Ukraine.

[Cyclops]

I know what the word means yes, but I also know how it is misrepresented by a lot of people. I don't agree with your observation that I use humanity and realpolitik based on whether it benefits Putin or not. I use humanity generally when discussing what I would like to see and realpolitik when trying to explain what it is I see, especially at my more cynical. At the very least, that is the intention.

Fair enough, but it does seem to tip that way. Realpolitik is Ukraine is a tool being abused by two great powers. I don't think they are equivalent, Russia is insane to take on the US (but then again so is Ukraine to take on Russia). Even allowing some equivalence in Great Power Naughtiness then we split the tie with humanity. Russia started both wars, the onus is on them to humanely end it.

"Oh Russia had to invade" not for humanitarian reasons. If we play realpolitik, NATO/EU/US interests are at least as valid. I don't see wriggle room here. This is Russia's war, and they are still lying about even that basic fact. Morally and pragmatically the West is right to support Ukraine.

I think this is wishful thinking. To a large extent this is enabled by the collapse of the "Russia stronk" narrative. People think now: "well they weren't that strong to begin with" and end up underestimating them instead.

Yes and its happened before. its also happened that great Powers have vanished from the face of the earth, and Russia's conduct seems based on an assumption of their invincible strength. Wasteful attacks, intransigent "diplomacy". Reminds me of the Spanish in the 80 Years War a little bit. The Ottomans in the 1680s too.

Here is some facts from the front though. The assault near Robotyne has been halted with minimal gains for Ukraine, that is the "fabled" Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive. On the other hand the Russians are in the process of encircling the important fortress of Avdiivka and are even pressuring Ukraine's positions in the Kupyansk region. The only thing that the Ukrainians have to show are attempted crosses of the Dnieper near Kherson, some more successful than others but so far without anything concrete to show. That's not what Ukraine having the advantage looks like.

Then you say Ukraine is scaling up its fighting ability... how? Because it receives on occasion some new toy from the west that they can't possibly replace? If you mean their war industrial capacity I don't consider that to be even extant anymore. The Russians, for all the accusations of "blind bombings" are certainly degrading whatever it is the Ukrainians have. Yet, what you see is Russia's capability as eroded, even though Russia is meeting their recruitment goals with relative ease according to all reports I've seen and so far at least, haven't displayed any real shortage in materiel, even if they had to use old equipment to make up for it. Again, this is not what Ukraine having the upper hand looks like.

Then you mentioned the black sea fleet. Which I didn't consider as much of a strategic asset as the US or even a UK fleet could be, because that's not how Russia fights. A fleet is just a floating missile platform basically and that's how it was used mostly. Does Russia even need it for that? Not too much. Likewise if Ukraine had deployed their fleet to fill the vacuum left by the retreating Russian fleet that would be perhaps sth. But here the question becomes... what fleet? Again, not what an advantageous situation for Ukraine would look like.

Russia does not seem to need the break, certainly not more so than Ukraine does. This can be clearly illustrated by reading some of the more staunchly pro-Russian think tanks and advocates online. I mean if you can still find their articles in your region. They are not asking for peace. As such I don't believe they really need it, they'd like it sure, but they don't need it. My argument is Ukraine does. Hence why I say, that it is not the pro-Putin move to be asking for peace.

Russia getting pushed off the Black Sea is an epochal event. "What Fleet" Peter the Great would slap you if he were here.

ATACMS have changed the exchange rate on forces. This munitions pipeline is persuasively described by Conon as a game changer, he has the runs on the board predicting many outcomes ITT. Like me you've solemnly seen Russia's likely victory but it keeps getting pushed back. Russia is getting an extended arse whipping, allowing for the force imbalance.

A capitulation is a surrender. Not a negotiated settlement. Why would I say what I don't mean so that you can feel validated?

Russia says its not a war, which is how far from reality their offer is. Positioning his ambit claim in absurdity demonstrates how lacking in good faith Putin is.

Dude come on. I'm seriously beginning to doubt you can read here and with your level of education this is rather embarrassing. This Russia Derangement Syndrome (RDS)* of yours has gone far enough.

*Yes it is similar to TDS. No, immunisation for one doesn't cover the other.

Russia is the one claiming they are not fighting a war, and its against a Jewish Nazi, who has bioweapons and radioactive clouds.

UDS. Symptoms include "trust Russia bro" and "Russia stronk". No known cure, and for Russians, potentially fatal.

[conon394]

'Tiredness on all sides' over war in Ukraine, Italian PM tells

Sudan is an interesting study for those demanding magic negotiations now when neither side thinks they are loosing. The power sharing deal between the SAF and RSF was negotiated by the UN and variousies external parties putting pressure on each side and look at that it collapsed. And how many cease fires since negotiated by the US And the House of Saud have been DOA. The RSF is running the table in western Sudan right now and it support from Wagner and UAE is solid talking is going to amount to well nothing.

[PointOfViewGun]

If you wanna see how good Ukrainians are succeeding in destroying Russian armor in Avdiivka watch this:

[conon394]

The assaults on Avdiivka are baffling. I understand the Russian air force has intensified their use of their large stand off glide bombs to composite for far less artillery fires than in the first year of the war. But given russia expenditure of men and material they seem to really want to take the salaent... so even if SEAD and DEAD are not the Russian thing if you will it seems to me they should at least be trying locally over the area. And then use air power to force the Ukrainian artillery to withdrawal.

[Stario]

UKraine invaded Russia in 2014 - I missed that.

Never said Ukraine "invaded Russia in 2014." I said Ukraine "started the war in 2014."

[reavertm]

Never said Ukraine "invaded Russia in 2014." I said Ukraine "started the war in 2014."

Hey Stalin, care to elaborate how Ukraine did it? Offended Putin by giving him angry look?
Never knew that deposing democratically elected president by democratically elected parliament in Ukraine is a declaration of war against Russia. Damn, countries around Russia should be really careful. Russia is this terribly insecure, emotionally unstable girl, attention "wh**e" with lack of self reflection and distance to herself who needs to manifest her presence on every occasion and takes any disagreement with her as attack on all of her fundamental values.
Really strong character 😂

[Stario]

Hey Stalin, care to elaborate how Ukraine did it? Offended Putin by giving him angry look?
Never knew that deposing democratically elected president by democratically elected parliament in Ukraine is a declaration of war against Russia. Damn, countries around Russia should be really careful. Russia is this terribly insecure, emotionally unstable girl, attention "wh**e" with lack of self reflection and distance to herself who needs to manifest her presence on every occasion and takes any disagreement with her as attack on all of her fundamental values.
Really strong character 😂

To say Ukraine is a democracy fighting for its survival is a misnomer. Ukraine is NOT a democracy, but an American “Deep State” project, with a regime installed by a 2014 coup that was led by Ukrainian far-right extremists and backed, and perhaps even engineered by US.

[StarDreamer]

To say Ukraine is a democracy fighting for its survival is a misnomer. Ukraine is NOT a democracy, but an American “Deep State” project, with a regime installed by a 2014 coup that was led by Ukrainian far-right extremists and backed, and perhaps even engineered by US.

All the talking points, ing hilarious!

[reavertm]

To say Ukraine is a democracy fighting for its survival is a misnomer. Ukraine is NOT a democracy, but an American “Deep State” project, with a regime installed by a 2014 coup that was led by Ukrainian far-right extremists and backed, and perhaps even engineered by US.

Let's be charitable for a second and take your interpretation of events, affairs.
How is deposing Russian puppet president of Ukraine - let's take this to extremes - even by CIA - a declaration of war against Russia? We are talking about Ukraine not Russia.
Do you simply deny there is such a thing as sovereign Ukraine and instead Russia is .. boundless? 😂
But.. doesn't that... uhm ... make Russia much worse than US according to your own logic? 😂
It's Russia who started murdering Ukrainians when they showed them middle finger after all.

[conon394]

Never said Ukraine "invaded Russia in 2014." I said Ukraine "started the war in 2014."

You still have not elaborated how exactly.

[Stario]

Do you simply deny there is such a thing as sovereign Ukraine and instead Russia is .. boundless? 😂

Sovereign Ukraine =/= Crimea + the independent regions of Donbas.

But.. doesn't that... uhm ... make Russia much worse than US according to your own logic? 😂

If the Biden, Putin and Zelensky regimes were to disappear today for something much better I would be all for it.

It's Russia who started murdering Ukrainians when they showed them middle finger after all.

Look up the so-called Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO), run by Ukraine’s security forces.

[Papay]

West is in talks with Kiev to try to find a way for peace talks with Moscow. Basically Kiev has lost and the best thing you can say for the whole situation is that western help forbid Russia from capturing half of Ukraine. But then again a frozen conflict doesnt guarantee Kiev that Russia wont try to capture the rest of Ukraine in a future war...

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1720607177180688865

[conon394]

Ah yes deep reporting quite talks according unnamed officials and in a twitter feed.

-------------

Look up the so-called Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO), run by Ukraine’s security forces.

Ukrainian security efforts to restore control over its own territory is an attack on Russia?

[reavertm]

Ukrainian security efforts to restore control over its own territory is an attack on Russia?

Stalin thought Soviet Union is boundless. Why his Super Mario inspired fanboy wouldn't think the same? 😂
It's all about Russian soul[1], wherever it is (even if in very minority), Russia is there 😂
It's pan-Ruscism[2], Russian fascism. It respects no borders.

1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_soul
2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruscism

[conon394]

Stalin thought Soviet Union is boundless. Why his Super Mario inspired fanboy wouldn't think the same?

Well sure but at least Stalin was fighting for world wide communism - he had a ideological trans national agenda (nominally)

[conon394]

Interesting note since I am now hooked on artillery shells and their cost. As I posted for 155mmm the US seemed to pay in a range of 400 - 800 dollars (adjusted) up to as late as 2021. First few unclassified documents are dribbling out for orders for 2022-2024. And tables for units ordered / total cost now strike out the units. That is the unit cost is no longer being provided. I guess the Pentagon wants Russia to work for it to figure out how much its paying for shells now.

[Stario]

Ukrainian security efforts to restore control over its own territory is an attack on Russia?

This is my opinion, but the invasion of any sovereign state is justified by it's neighbours if that sovereign is killing tens of thousands of it's own civilians (result of ATO), and in light of the repeated warnings by its neighbours (in this case Russia) not to take such actions/steps against own citizens (and to add in this case the majority were Russian speaking that also wanted independence; which a referendum showed).
Ukraine’s govt made a massive blunder w it's ATO (should have pursued diplomatic means), and basically gave Putin a casus belli to invade (and elleviate the other bigger problem of NATO's intrusion on Russia - two flies w one swat so to speak).
Lastly, the ATO was ordered by an democratically un-elected "acting" President Turchynov.