Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Vanoi]

Ofc, everyone has a reasons to do something. But we speak not about reasons but about consequences. And what about consequences?

What consequences? Unless the Saudis decide to stop selling the US oil nothing changes. Just the Saudis throwing a temper tantrum. Worse yet Saudi behavior is only going to convince Biden further to reverse his positions on energy. These events have only shown the US and much of the West that being energy independent or at least striving to not be reliant on nations like Russia or the Saudis for oil is necessary now.

[StarDreamer]

What consequences? Unless the Saudis decide to stop selling the US oil nothing changes. Just the Saudis throwing a temper tantrum. Worse yet Saudi behavior is only going to convince Biden further to reverse his positions on energy. These events have only shown the US and much of the West that being energy independent or at least striving to not be reliant on nations like Russia or the Saudis for oil is necessary now.

The fact that European leaders now have another reason beyond the "We shall save the earth" reason to work on alternative energy sources is a great help for a united effort on it.

I find it funny how some bring up that the sanctions will impact the EU too, this has always been known and is unlikely to change many minds now. It will hurt Russia way more than it hurts the EU, which is the point. It is why Russian counter-sanctions have also been laughed at, they are so puny and laughable.

[bitterhowl]

IDK if you intentionally missed it or not - "oil sales in yuan instead of dollars". How about this?

Russia need no counter sanctions because Europe will suffer enough from it's own. Let's see how your alternative energy will help you this year. I heard there were some issues in Texas for example. And some conflict about energy traffic in Scandinavia last autumn. Greta bless you.

Some stuff from TV here
https://www.fourals.com/2022/03/15/e...channel-video/

The official Ukrainian Channel 24 announcer, Fakhruddin Sharafmal, launched a fiery statement referring to the famous Nazi Adolf Eichmann live and called for “the extermination of all Russian citizenand Russian children.

“Since Russia classifies us as ‘Nazis’ and ‘Fascists,’ I also quote from Adolf Eichmann, who said that in order to destroy a nation, you have to start by killing its children,” said Scherfmal.

[Alastor]

Just one quick question to "5 full euros" current owners - what about fertilizers in Europe after that sanctions?

(I'm not mentioned here about yesterday's request of European industrialists to European officials to explain sanctions policy).

I have to say that in my own life it will be at least 3-d default in my state since 1991 (not speaking about 2008 crisis and all those sanctions), and here I am, writing here on TWC. And what about you, are you ready for yourself?

As far as I am aware, Russia is already halting fertilizer exports. This has had an impact on farmers in the EU and elsewhere and will likely continue to do so. It's not just Russia or fertilizers. The EU imports lots of potash from Belarus and Ukraine was a crucial exporting country for the food industry. Belarus is also sanctioned and this war means Ukraine can't fulfil its obligations either. Do note, the war, not the sanctions. I have often called the western sanctions on Russia foolhardy, but make no mistake that even without the sanctions there would be pain because of the war.

As for what Europe is going to do about fertilizers, Macron is once again the one leader in the EU with a modicum of vision and speaks of greater strategic autonomy for Europe's food industry in the years to come. There are options, but they will take some time and there are disagreements to mend (as always). Europe has been increasing their internal production of fertilizers in recent years and perhaps we could get something from other producers, ie Canada.

An interesting article discussing this would be this one: https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...rn-fertilizer/

Finally, I will request (not for the first time in this thread) not to make things personal. I'm well aware of the hardship Russia has gone through since the Soviet Union collapsed. Europe indeed has had it better in recent decades and I would be inclined to agree that the population overall would be as such less resilient to hardship. But on a personal level? I have seen enough economic hardship in my life thank you very much. I'm afraid of more, because I know for a fact how unpleasant it is and so should you, but I will live, just like you have.

[Condottiere 40K]

1. Europe can now go organic, whether food or energy.

2. Happy Ides of March!

3. The Russian Senate is invited to celebrate.

4. Speaking of energy, considering the size of the military operation un Ukraine, there should be half a dozen communications, command, control, early warning, electronic surveillance, you get the picture, constantly in the air.

5. I don't know the truth of this, but someone mentioned that these Russian aircraft are all grounded.

6. That would be a huge sign of weakness, if not unpreparedness.

7. You could fill them with a bunch of munchkins, and no one would know the difference.

8. Until there are a lot of friendly fire incidents and shoot downs.

9. But hey, consider it a live fire exercise until Poland gets invaded, again.

A. One explanation that the Russian air force is reluctant to send planes into Ukraine is because they don't trust their own troops not to shoot them down.

B. Less about losing the plane, more about losing their diminishing stock of pilots.

C. Someone speculated, when seeing all those large See Three planes grounded, it could be more that they're short of aviation fuel.

D. Again, Russia is an oil producer, how hard could it be to distill fuel?

E. There are pictures of Russian trains transporting pickups to the frontline.

F. That should do great things for that traffic jam.

G. There are also pictures of terminators heading in the direction of Kiev.

H. Kiev is definitely going to become Stalindegraded.

I. I think another Russian general bit the dust.

J. I remember this anecdote about Soviet intelligence assessments.

K. Two sets are prepared, and the one submitted is the one that the head of intelligence thinks that the leadership wants to hear.

L. If things go tits up, the guy who signed that assessment gets blamed.

M. Considering that the Soviets were considered masters of propaganda, they don't seem to be doing that well recently.

N. While the older generation appears to support Putin and believe the State News, there seems to be an old Soviet survival mechanism kicking in.

O. As the proletariat seems mostly cowed.

P. In public, you can belief one thing, and around the kitchen table, you can belief something else.

Q. Though I'd turn off those cell phones, nowadays.

S. Russian propaganda nowadays seems to be disseminated globally by useful idiots and paid shills.

T. And even that has now reached it's limits.

U. As Marie Le Pen ordered destroyed over a millions leaflets with her pictured shaking Putin's hand.

V. Putin cannot declare a state of general war and call up the reservists.

W. Or maybe he's waiting for the Chinese supplies to arrive, so that he can.

X. The Chinese will likely try to evade sanctions by shipping more controversial items through third parties.

Y. I'm thinking North Korea.

[Alastor]

1. Europe can now go organic, whether food or energy.

Go organic and produce much less? I don't see how that will help with expected shortages and increases in prices.

M. Considering that the Soviets were considered masters of propaganda, they don't seem to be doing that well recently.

Well, on the flip side the Ukrainians were also Soviets and their propaganda machine appears to be doing quite fine.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Well, on the flip side the Ukrainians were also Soviets and their propaganda machine appears to be doing quite fine.

You don't have to do much to demonize fascists, they kind of do most of the work for you.

[Janbāru]

From an article written in 2014: East Ukraine crisis and the ‘fascist’ matrix | Opinions | Al Jazeera

Russian TV channels reported the essentially full stamp of approval provided by this “team of international observers”. These included at least two members of the radical right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria: Aymeric Chauprade, adviser on international issues for the French National Front; Belgian Luc Michel, former neo-Nazi FANE member and now member of an extreme right party, as well as two compatriots from the far-right Vlaams Belang; two members of the Bulgarian far-right Ataka Party; Hungarian Bela Kovacs from the far-right Jobbik party, and others.Some of the above-mentioned and others are members of the Alliance of European National Movements which issued a statement on Ukraine that effectively drops its former ally, Ukraine’s VO Svoboda Party and sides with Russia. The statement’s anti-Semitic argumentation is well-worth reading given the constant Kremlin narrative about supposed Ukrainian anti-Semitism.
Shekhovtsov reports that on April 9, Tamas Gaudi Nagy, MP from the far-right Jobbik party gave a three-minute speech against European democracy at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. He was wearing a t-shirt reading: “Crimea belongs to Russia; Transcarpathia [in Ukraine – HC] belongs to Hungary.” It is worth recalling that Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union once signed a collaboration pact which involved a similar carving up of Poland.
Besides Jobbik, Russia is also cultivating relations with Marine Le Pen’s French National Front and other far-right movements. Strong showing by these parties in the upcoming May European Parliament elections will presumably add other voices, like Nagy’s, in support for Moscow’s annexation of a part of Ukraine.
In a recent study, the Political Capital Institute suggests that there are ideological links between some far-right European parties and the current Russian leadership. Russia, it says, has under Vladimir Putin, set its sights on the restoration of the country’s status as a world power. Far-right and other parties seeking to undermine European unity and taking an anti-Western line are presumably to play a role in its fulfilment of Russia’s imperialist aspirations. So, too, are the references to “fascists” used as an attempt to justify Ukraine’s dismemberment. The world has been here before, and the price for collaborating with fascists and for failure to react to clear danger proved tragically high.

Denazification of Ukraine? Really?

Another interesting article explaining how Putin has dispensed a large amount of russian passports in Donbas and why: Passports as Pretext: How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Could Start - War on the Rocks

Article 61(2) of the Russian constitution guarantees citizens “protection and patronage” even “beyond the borders” of Russian territory. As “guarantor of the Russian constitution,” former president Dmitry Medvedev invoked this clause during an emergency meeting of Russia’s Security Council on Aug. 8, 2008, to justify Russia’s military intervention in South Ossetia, Georgia.

The structural conditions are now increasingly conducive for Russia to exploit its extraterritorial citizens: According to figures provided by the separatist governments of Donetsk and Luhansk, 635,000 residents received Russian passports by the end of January 2022, amounting to as much as 35 percent of the local population.

History seems to repeat again, isn't it?

Finally, according to a survey made in 2019: Attitudes and identities across the Donbas front line: What has changed from 2016 to 2019? (zois-berlin.de)

Mobility across the front line continues to be, by and large, unidirectional.
The vast majority of the population of the gouvernement controlled Donbas has not crossed the line. Movement from the DNR/LNR is higher, as expected. There, monthly crossings increased significantly from 2016 to 2019, reflecting people's need to travel for socio-economic reasons and perhaps a sense of normalisation amid a continued low level fighting.

For info, the russian ambassador in France said yesterday during a press conference that 2.5 millions of Ukrainians have moved to Russia since 2014. I can't help myself thinking: where are they? Why no russian offical media is interviewing them to justify Putin's current war?

[Lord Thesaurian]

From an article written in 2014: East Ukraine crisis and the ‘fascist’ matrix | Opinions | Al Jazeera

Denazification of Ukraine? Really?

Another interesting article explaining how Putin has dispensed a large amount of russian passports in Donbas and why: Passports as Pretext: How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Could Start - War on the Rocks




History seems to repeat again, isn't it?

Finally, according to a survey made in 2019: Attitudes and identities across the Donbas front line: What has changed from 2016 to 2019? (zois-berlin.de)

For info, the russian ambassador in France said yesterday during a press conference that 2.5 millions of Ukrainians have moved to Russia since 2014. I can't help myself thinking: where are they? Why no russian offical media is interviewing them to justify Putin's current war?

I say the world takes the ambassador at his word and all the separatists in Ukraine can just move to Russia then. Somehow I suspect Putin wouldn’t go for that.

[Ludicus]

According to Intercept, Putin Decided Last-Minute to Invade, Intelligence Officials Say
---

The hypocritical comments I hear make me want to laugh. Very few people were really expecting the invasion in the days before it happened, on March 24th.Why in the hell should I have believed something that the Ukrainians themselves did not believe? published on 21 Feb 2022, three days before the invasion Why most Ukrainians don't believe Biden's warnings, distrust west

Disbelief in war goes hand in hand with mistrust in the West, an observer said.Some observers say that Washington’s ominous warnings and the geopolitical tug-of-war around Ukraine are beneficial to the West – and Russia. “Each side achieves its goals at Ukraine’s expense”

----
Two-thirds of Ukrainians don't think an invasion is imminent
-----

On March 1, just a few days after the invasion, nothing stopped Mearsheimer from keeping on saying ”If there had been no decision to move NATO eastward to include Ukraine there would be no war in Ukraine”

It takes a great deal of nerve to say that I have no moral authority to quote Mearsheimer. It also takes a good deal of intellectually dishonesty to claim that Meirsheimer does not say what he says.In the Ukrainian case, the moral dimension of the conflict and what can/should be done in the real world are arrows pointing in opposite directions, as Meirsheimer explains very well, in a reply to this question:

"You were talking about the Palestinian issue, and you said something that I very much agree with, which is: “There is a moral dimension here as well. Thanks to the lobby of the United States it has become the de facto enabler of Israeli occupation in the occupied territories, making it complicit in the crimes perpetrated against the Palestinians”. I’m curious what you think, if any, of the moral dimension to what’s going on in Ukraine right now".

"In an ideal world" he answered, “it would be wonderful if the Ukrainians were free to choose their own political system and to choose their own foreign policy. But in the real world, that is not feasible. The Ukrainians have a vested interest in paying serious attention to what the Russians want from them".

In fact, for Zelensky, NATO is already a mirage, Ukraine will not join Nato, says Zelenskiy

-----
Lord T. claims: "Meirsheimer tells me what I already think". Lord T. cannot fully understand what Meirsheimer's political position is, it it goes far beyond the containment of China.

Lord T. is an apologist for American interventions in foreign countries. Meirsheimer is a non-interventionist patriot : "Liberal hegemony leads to a super ambitious and heavily militarized foreign policy” he said.Even worse, for Mearsheimer, liberal hegemony is doomed because social engineering in foreign countries is an impossible exercise.He condemns the US policy of liberal hegemony,which calls for the US to dominate the entire globe,the US failed attempts to spread democracy by force in the countries they invade. "Liberal hegemony is a bankrupt strategy", he said **

Lord T. justifies the US "necessary" wars on terror with intense propaganda about the US devotion to democracy and human rights. Lord T. is a staunch supporter of the US."benevolent hegemony", which Meirsheimer totally condemns. Meirsheimer states that the US should have a good relationship with Iran; Lord T. would be happy if Iran were annihilated and reduced to ashes.
When it comes to making strategic and moral judgments,Meirsheimer condemns Israel ,and condemns the US American foreign policy towards Israel, (read below, *)
I advise everyone to read this long,detailed, exhaustive article in its entirety, which is a strategic and a devastating moral condemnation of American foreign policy towards Israel.Go ahead and say that Mearsheimer is an anti-semite, anti-zionist and an enemy of Israel. Mearsheimer responds to Goldberg's latest smear.

* John Mearsheimer The Israel Lobby


Or, if you prefer,keep saying that Mearsheimer doesn't say what he says,

..So if neither strategic nor moral arguments can account for America’s support for Israel, how are we to explain it? The explanation is the unmatched power of the Israel Lobby.

** Why Liberal Hegemony?

And for nearly 30 years, US foreign policy has been oriented around the idea, known as liberal hegemony, that it is in America’s interest to turn as many countries as possible into liberal democracies, and to spread, in the words of Max Boot, “the rule of law, property rights and other guarantees, at gunpoint if need be.”
As Mearsheimer observes: “militarized liberal states must rely on secrecy and must even deceive their own people when the country’s interest require it, which turns out to be surprisingly often…and it is from these secrets that flow the lies that are used to sell America’s endless military interventions to the American people.

There's No Such Thing as Good Liberal Hegemony - Foreign

The United States is very powerful, wealthy, and secure, but some tasks may simply be beyond its means and outside the limits of its understanding. Trying to use military to transform deeply divided societies into liberal democracies seems to be one of them.

The most recent example is the case of Afghanistan.
---

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I remind those who are getting ready to say, "Here he comes mentioning Israel again": keep in mind that the interviewer’ s name is Isaac Chotiner, not Ludicus, and I haven't wrote “The Israel Lobby”

[Bande Nere]

As far as I am aware, Russia is already halting fertilizer exports. This has had an impact on farmers in the EU and elsewhere and will likely continue to do so. It's not just Russia or fertilizers. The EU imports lots of potash from Belarus and Ukraine was a crucial exporting country for the food industry. Belarus is also sanctioned and this war means Ukraine can't fulfil its obligations either. Do note, the war, not the sanctions. I have often called the western sanctions on Russia foolhardy, but make no mistake that even without the sanctions there would be pain because of the war.

As for what Europe is going to do about fertilizers, Macron is once again the one leader in the EU with a modicum of vision and speaks of greater strategic autonomy for Europe's food industry in the years to come. There are options, but they will take some time and there are disagreements to mend (as always). Europe has been increasing their internal production of fertilizers in recent years and perhaps we could get something from other producers, ie Canada.

An interesting article discussing this would be this one: https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...rn-fertilizer/

Finally, I will request (not for the first time in this thread) not to make things personal. I'm well aware of the hardship Russia has gone through since the Soviet Union collapsed. Europe indeed has had it better in recent decades and I would be inclined to agree that the population overall would be as such less resilient to hardship. But on a personal level? I have seen enough economic hardship in my life thank you very much. I'm afraid of more, because I know for a fact how unpleasant it is and so should you, but I will live, just like you have.

I'll try to be concise as my writing hand is ed up.
While the west is obviously unprepared to fully counter the effects of these sanctions, I suspect it also has enough capital and demographics to heavily invest on clean energy and internal production, if they act quickly and in concert.
I'm also of the opinion many of the companies involved in skyrocketing prices should be forced to keep them at reasonable levels. If we are all giving up something on account of this war, it's immoral that our own western oligarchs and shareholders shouldn't go through some minor hardships as well. I doubt this will happen, unfortunately.

The US DoD have been stressing the importance of a switch to clean energy and internal production for years now. Sadly Trump knew "more than all his generals" about military affairs, and now we see the results. Supporting the Green New Deal is effectively an act of Patriotism, now more than ever.

I have no ill will towards BH or any other every day Russian. I've got friends over there and just thinking about what these sanctions are causing them and their loved ones makes my heart ache. I find it hard even to hate the russian soldiers currently in Ukraine. Where I come from a lot of my friends joined our armed forces to be able to feed their families rather than a lust to kill foreigners, and I'm pretty sure the same goes for the overwhelming majority of russian troops.
In fact I'm convinced the Russian populace is a victim of this conflict as well, even thought none of them is at risk of getting their homes destroyed by UAF.

In Italy we've had constant propaganda from Berlusconi's televisions(and National TV whenever he was in power) since before I was born(I'm 37), and a lot of my friends still believe Berlusconi somehow saved Italy from a communist takeover(all while the Italian Communist Party had gone full US friendly and was as left wing as Tony Blair's Labour) and made us all richer(groans). The kind of propaganda used by Mediaset at the time was not only political but multilayered, combining so-called family values while progressively objectifying women; creating or amplifying internal frictions to develop an Us Vs. Them mentality on a growing number of issues; Outchurching the Church on conservative issues
to create a moral aura around some of the most immoral politicians in Italy's history(and that's no small feat), constantly denigrating our National Health and Education sistems in favor of Corporate, basically creating the climate to make folks accept their growing cuts of funds for these intitutions. The US are an example of how wrong these policies are, and yet they have been constantly championed by mediaset programs, not only through their News arm, but most importantly through their entertainment programs.

These same tactics would be further weaponized by the Murdoch Family in Countries like Australia, the UK and the US.

In Russia, Putin's propaganda machine has been working tirelessly and with almost zero internal opposing views for a few decades now, so I find hard to blame a people that have been forcefed lies to such a degree and for such a long period of time.

In light of this, I can somewhat understand how BH ca be so sure about his convictions, though I find it rather unnerving that he consistenly dismisses or skips any and every point that goes contrary to his side without even glancing at the evergrowing evidence against it.

And yes, I would happily offer him a couple pivos(those are beers, nothing violent, don't ban me plz). He is a fellow TW homie after all.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Very few people were really expecting the invasion in the days before it happened

Kremlin-tier lie.

It takes a great deal of nerve to say that I have no moral authority to quote Mearsheimer.

Selectively quoting any source in order to misrepresent them is poor form. It was your decision to do so.

It also takes a good deal of intellectually dishonesty to claim that Meirsheimer does not say what he says.

Then why are you?

Lord T. claims: "Meirsheimer tells me what I already think". Lord T. cannot fully understand what Meirsheimer's political position is, it it goes far beyond the containment of China.

More projection.

Lord T. is an apologist for American interventions in foreign countries. Meirsheimer is a non-interventionist patriot :

Lmao. To reiterate from my last post:

Realists believe that the U.S. should run as much of the world as possible, while being mindful that there are limits to American power and remember other countries (in particular, “great powers” like Russia and China) have their own interests. For realists, morality, democracy, the sovereignty of small countries, etc., are nice in theory — but it’s naïve to think they can ever play much role in great power politics.

For instance, in Mearsheimer’s 2014 article, he wrote that “it is the Russians, not the West, who ultimately get to decide what counts as a threat to them.” But of course the same thing could have been written about the U.S. before the invasion of Iraq. From a realist perspective, the only question about that war was whether it was wise or foolish for U.S. power, not whether it was right or wrong.

Likewise, in a recent interview with Mearsheimer in the New Yorker, Isaac Chotiner brought up the long history of ugly U.S. actions in the Western Hemisphere, and remarked, “We’re essentially saying that we have some sort of say over how democratic countries run their business.” Mearsheimer replied with equanimity, “We do have that say, and, in fact, we overthrew democratically elected leaders in the Western hemisphere during the Cold War because we were unhappy with their policies. This is the way great powers behave.”

https://theintercept.com/2022/03/06/...er-propaganda/

Or, if you prefer,keep saying that Mearsheimer doesn't say what he says,

>Cue gratuitous, off-topic reference to Israel.

[Mithradates]

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 15 March 2022



Now that Russia is on the brink of economic and military collapse, Lavrov says there is hope for compromise at talks with Ukraine, i.e. they are losing and they know it.

[bitterhowl]

Let's just refresh our memories.

And this sanction is just like a nuke rocket

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

As for refugees - interesting situation in Moldova. Their Ministry of education says there are about 600 requests for Ukrainian children to schooling. Guess amount of requests to learn in Russian language. For refugees from a country where Russian language is officially banned.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Let's just refresh our memories.

Yes, Russia invaded Ukraine to defend the LGBT there.

[bitterhowl]

Yes, Russia invaded Ukraine to defend the LGBT there.

I respect your worries about LGBT in Ukraine but I doubt it is a reason of what happened.

Italian's LaStampa last number about terrors of Russian invasion to Ukraine illustrated with footage from Donetsk.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

A version of what's happening with Ukrainian armed forces near Gorlovka.
https://t.me/informdefense/255

And here's an answer about schooling refugees. 37 requests to schooling in Romanian, 40 to schooling in Ukrainian and 554 to schooling in Russian. Nuff said.

[ggggtotalwarrior]

Despite what the trolls may think, bitter howl is fully correct in their interpretation of this situation. Russia was fully justified in its intervention expedition into the lands claimed to be Eastern the Ukraine. After Zelensky refused to give those poor Russian folks their god given right to freedom from their Nazi oppression, it was only right that Russia invade the entire country to remove their Fascist government and ensure Russian security from NATO incursions. This whole situation is clear proof of why NATO’s growth is an unnecessary act of aggression towards the Russian state. Look at how countries like Poland and Estonia continue to threaten Russian sovereignty and you have all the evidence you need.

[AqD]

Doesn't matter how many troops or tanks you have when they can be vaporized by tactical nukes and chokepoints established thru nuclear bomb fallout and radiation. A war with Russia would be a war with nukes. The positions of the cold war are reversed, contemporary Soviet forces had an overwhelming conventional advantage (like the West today) however USA had the advantage with nukes.

If we are afraid of nukes, the NATO could just disband and sanctions should also stop as Russia could fire nukes for whatever reason they see fit, especially since they're not winning.

I call that bs and NATO should eliminate all forces outside of Russia. That way we show the world we're in control and not afraid of them holding the entire planet as hostage for their purposes. They can choose to lose the war or annihilation.

Also the war taught us that every nuke owning nations who are not our friends need to be dealt with before they become bigger threats. All food aid to NK should stop e.g.

[Mithradates]

A version of what's happening with Ukrainian armed forces near Gorlovka.
https://t.me/informdefense/255

And here's an answer about schooling refugees. 37 requests to schooling in Romanian, 40 to schooling in Ukrainian and 554 to schooling in Russian. Nuff said.

That link doesnt work for me...

Anyways. So, why are they fleeing to Moldova instead of Russia?

[Lord Thesaurian]

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor.

Article:

Even if the Russian army were to occupy Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and set up a puppet government at a high cost, this would not mean final victory. At this point, Putin’s best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake.

The power of the West will grow significantly, NATO will continue to expand, and U.S. influence in the non-Western world will increase. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, no matter how Russia achieves its political transformation, it will greatly weaken the anti-Western forces in the world.

China will become more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take proactive measures to respond, it will encounter further containment from the US and the West.

China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible. In the sense that an escalation of conflict between Russia and the West helps divert U.S. attention from China, China should rejoice with and even support Putin, but only if Russia does not fall. Being in the same boat with Putin will impact China should he lose power. Unless Putin can secure victory with China’s backing, a prospect which looks bleak at the moment, China does not have the clout to back Russia.

China should avoid playing both sides in the same boat, give up being neutral, and choose the mainstream position in the world China should achieve the greatest possible strategic breakthrough and not be further isolated by the West. Cutting off from Putin and giving up neutrality will help build China’s international image and ease its relations with the U.S. and the West. Though difficult and requiring great wisdom, it is the best option for the future.

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei...-china-choice/

Tankies on suicide watch.