WHY YOU SHOULD NOT PRE-ORDER (I understand it is long but please read)
I don't understand why anyone would pre-order based on hype. All that you have seen is trailers which in no way reflect the end product either in graphics, animations or scenarios displayed. This we know for certain thanks to the experience of Rome 2 Total War. The only thing that is true of them is that the unit exists in the game (hopefully) but that doesn't necessarily mean it will be in your game since it may be part of a pre-order that comes after release even if the unit belongs to a playable faction, or it may be part of a faction that is unplayable. In essence, a trailer is merely a demonstration of an unrealistic over-the-top representation of the game at its most ideal condition which you will never be able to replicate. The same holds true of "in-game" trailers where developers "play" the game which is really scripted and where graphic levels are beyond what those available in the real game which must later be tweaked to be compatible with laptops and other low-res computers of customers.
Trailers as well as other pre-release content are merely hype, very little of them is true. If someone was selling me milk but asked that I pay for it before I had even seen it, let alone taste it, and to entice me he showed me a video of the product, regardless of how well the video may be made I would not give my money away. Would you? Well that is exactly what the pre-order hype train is about. It’s a promise, nothing more. The only reason someone would pre-order is if they trusted the seller; in other words, trust and pre-order go hand in hand. Yet why are people pre-ordering when CA's history concerning pre-orders is anything but trustworthy? You may say they have changed but at this point you have no proof of this and your claims are mere conjecture. The company would first have to behave in a way that would regain the trust of its customers. You wouldn't keep buying that milk that wasn't exactly milk unless you saw them change their ways first so why would you retrust a company that has yet to fix the mess of R2TW in any suitable way? They say insanity is repeating the same mistakes with the expectation of experiencing a different outcome. Pre-ordering to me fits that definition. However, there must be a psychological reason behind this behavior and there is: trailers and pre-release content are not meant to reveal the true extent of the game just like a politician's pre-election rhetoric is not meant to represent his true beliefs or what he will do once elected. They are merely being used to play or manipulate with your emotions and give you a feeling of excitement that will result in you pre-ordering the game and paying for something you may not be interested in the future or may not meet your expectations. I ask: have you ever done something in the heat of the moment that later turned out to be good and didn't regret? Don't most good things come to those who wait and suppress their craving and yearnings? Persistent pre-order customers will naturally defend their actions because of a tendency to reject assertions that challenge their behavior and beliefs and may be overly optimistic because they want to be overly optimistic that it becomes a self-fufilling prophecy. They tend to look or remember merely the good aspects and reject or downplay the negative ones. In other words, they believe what they want to believe which is reinforced by confirmation bias. Others may pre-order (pre-purchase) based on popularity: most people buy a product because of indirect peer pressure. As their friends talk about the newest trailer that they have seen, etc they fuel the hype train and its popularity making it more likely that more and more people will purchase the product.
However, this post is meant to be more about explaining why pre-ordering is a bad idea, despite what the overly optimistic and gaming industry might say.
One of the ways in which TW, and indeed other games, have managed to get customers to pre-order is by offering free content (which should be part of the core game) to customers. In marketing this is a devious but excellent strategy to get extra money because first of all they are paying for something they have yet to play or even seen in non-scripted action.
One of the reasons to be against pre-ordering is that it provides an industry with profits without having to do any real work. By the time the game is released they have already acquired a large percentage of their overall sales. This allows them to cut features, do less work or invest less in the development of the game knowing that they have already reached the margins they were aiming for. Consequently, the game is inevitably worse than it would otherwise have been. If they only became aware of their profits after the game had been released companies would leave no rock unturned to make sure their game would be as good as possible in order to sell as many games as possible. Thus, profits depended largely upon the product rather than the hype. Now there is no incentive to make the game any good, so long as it is not extremely bad they can get away with it and so the target becomes mediocrity and the funds are diverted towards advertising and marketing instead of development. In the 1970s, psychologists Mark R. Lepper and David Greene from Stanford and the University of Michigan chose to determine the effects of expected rewards on humans. Children who knew that they would be rewarded for their drawings spent less time drawing and placed less energy towards making creative and sophisticated drawings. [1] Other studies confirmed it applied to adults too. One famous experiment includes Skinner’s operant conditioning experiment where a rat would be rewarded with food pellets by pressing a lever. Skinner discovered that if the pellets were given only at certain time intervals (say every 10 minutes) – in other words they expected the reward – the rat would naturally not press the lever until the ten minutes neared but if pellets were given based on the number of times the lever was pulled (say 1 every 10 pulls) then they would put more of an effort, and even more for variable-ratio schedules – if the rewards were given unexpectedly. [2] We can apply this to the gaming industry in a similar way: if the company staff already know they have large sales they are unlikely to put much effort into developing the game; if they realize that sales depend on how much they work they are likely to put more effort, but if the number of sales varies and cannot be predicted they will work even harder to ensure they get the highest possible sales. Yet this is exactly what pre-ordering does: it incentivizes the developers and the gaming company to put less effort into their work and be less creative because they already know what the reward will be before the work is completed. This is also the reason companies do not invest large resources after the game has been released to fixing it in any significant way - they already have your money and they know sales more than 3 months after release diminish to a whimper and any good patch take more than 3 months to release. The patches are simply there to make it seem that they are doing something about it, minimizing the loss of face and reputation and preventing you from returning it and getting a refund, sorry it’s the truth.
Another reason why pre-ordering is bad is because it encourages the company to pursue the strategy of artificial scarcity that force us to pre-order in fear that we will lose or miss out on the offer or content. While CA does not say the "free" pre-order content will be excluded to those who have not pre-ordered it, it becomes quite reasonable to assume this is exactly what would happen or there would be no reason to pre-order it in the first place. The effect can be summarizes as follows:
"Psychologist Stephen Worchel illustrated [artificial scarcity] with a study involving cookies unlike those that Steam’s website deals in. Posing as a consumer products survey, the experimenters offered subjects a chocolate chip cookie from one of two jars. One of the jars had many cookies in it. The other had only a few. People reported the cookies from the mostly empty jars as more delicious, more desirable, and more expensive. This despite that the cookies in both jars WERE THE SAME COOKIES." [3]
Because the psychology behind artificial scarcity is most effective when the "free" or "limited time only" product is a core element it is only natural that companies gradually move towards limiting core aspects for those who pre-order or pay extra only. In fact, we just saw this with Total War: Warhammer with the Chaos faction. The threat exists, and is entirely plausible, that customers may get used to such activity and accept it years down as the norm, especially the earlier generations. At this point companies may move to simply charge players for core content - this is the road we are heading. I know apologists will claim there is nothing wrong with this since they are adding content but the truth is they are not. This content would already be in the game regardless! The only thing it does is convince the gullible that it is new or additional content when it is not, just like they convince them that it is free when it is not.
Pre-ordering is also bad because it relies on the concept of 'sunk cost' whereby you have already invested your money in something. While pre-ordering these days is getting more digital and you don't necessarily have to invest $10 on the pre-order that you know you will never be able to redeem, you still have a sense of sunk cost in terms of time spent. You do not want to have to waste your time returning the game when you can merely play it here and now. Nevertheless, the concept of sunk cost has really taken a new meaning with the invention of DLC (Downloadable Content) so that you have already invested a substantial amount of money on purchasing the game and paying that extra $5 feels necessary to get the “complete” game. Then they release a “new” DLC a month later and so on so that in the end the real game has cost twice the original yet, unless you’re keeping count, you won’t realize it.
Note, there is nothing wrong with pre-ordering if 1. you trust the seller; or 2. you have seen or experienced the game in a demo (coincidentally, nobody does demos now - guess why!). Let’s get back to rewarding games based on content and the gaming experience not on popularity and hype.
[1] http://www.spring.org.uk/2009/10/how...motivation.php
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operant_conditioning
[3] http://www.psychologyofgames.com/201...s-summer-sale/