When approaching a complex topic I prefer to break things down into what I know, what I do not know and what this information may indicate. My own knowledge on Turkish politics are rather limited so I have mostly been listening and learning so far but this is my compilation so far.
What we do know about the timeline
- 9 PM. The coupists invited and seized Chief of the General Staff Hulusi Akar, commander of the Turkish Land Forces Salih Zeko Colak. Commander of the air force Abidin Ünal was also seized by a small force carried by helicopter who seized him at a wedding.
- 11 PM The "official" coup started at 11 PM, Helicopters bombed special forces headquarters and police air force headquarters in Golbasi outside Ankara with 42 dead. The Türksat (state televsion) head quarters was also bombed).
- 11 PM fighter jets where flying over Ankara and two bridges in Istanbul were occupied.
- 1147 PM Edogan left Marmaris but did not land at Atatürk airport until 2:50AM
- 1150 PM Soldiers occupy Taksim square
- 12 PM Four soldiers seize the state television to broadcast a message and evauates the Justice and Development partys office in Istanbul.
- 1 AM Gunfire at Atatürk airport and tanks open fire at the parliament and is also attacked from the air. One coupist helicopter is shot down.
- 3 AM the army state that they are in control over the air space.
- 4 AM two or three helicopters attack the hotel at Marmaris and 15 heavily armed men land to attack it. Soldiers also fire at a crowd that have responded to the occupation of the Bosphorous birdge.
- 4 AM Erdogan makes a speech blaming the Gülen movement for the coup attempt.
- 12:40 AM a Blackhawk helicopter arrives in Greece with soldiers applying for asylum.
What we know about the involved parties
- The military immediately responded to the coup and supported Erdogan.
- All political partiers immediately declared themselves negative to the coup.
- The Gülenists also declared themselves negative to the coup.
- The Gülenists are estimated to make up almost a third of the armed forces
- No general supported the coup after being seized by the coupists.
- There were 50 soliders occupying the Bosphous bridge, an unknown number of soliders were at the airport and an unknown number of soliders were used to seize important people. There were also 700 unarmed soliders surrendering at the headquarters along with 150 armed soldiers.
- 45 000 military officials, police officers, governors and civil servants have been arrested or suspended. This includes at least one prosecutor who have been dead for several months, 2700 judges, 15 000 teachers and all university deans.
- The coup has been used to declare a 3 month state of emergency that give Erdogan extraordinary power.
- Backlash against the coup mean that even people who did not previously support AKP and Erdogan support many of the extraordinary decisions made by Erdogan and AKP.
What we do not know
- What political faction did the coup makers actually support?
- What happened to the 14 naval vessels that were reported missing. Have they ever been missing and where is the commander of the navy admiral Veysel Kosele?
It is obvious that Erdogan and his followers where prepared for the coup and knew exactly what political opponents to strike out against after the coup. It is also clear that his political opponents were unprepared for the coup but immediately were sure that the coup was made by people they themselves would not support.
This does however no give us any sure knowledge of whatever the persons behind the coup considered themselves loyal to the AKP, any of the above mentioned parties or someone else entirely. Right now we simply lack the knowledge the to determine if this people where highly dedicated Erdogan supporters, really stupid Erdogan haters or a mixture of the two. What I would like to see would therefore be if some of our Turkish speaking members could take the time to start looking up the names of the dead coup-makers and their background.
From this we could draw some serious conclusions about what actually happened.
- If the identities of the dead are highly secret --> An indication that the authorities are hiding something.
- If the soldiers involved are conscripts with a diverse background and higher officers lean in a particular direction --> A poorly executed coup by people who seriously misjudged the situation and hoped that the coup would snowball if they got it started. We would however still be uncertain who was feeding the higher officers the information that encouraged them to make the attempt.
- Everyone is a Gülenist --> Gülenists did it.