Portuguese elections

[alhoon]

http://news.yahoo.com/mainstream-por...--finance.html

The gist: The moderate, center-right government is expected to win the elections. They follow the plan of austerity and despite tax hikes and cutting benefits they still seem to have the majority. Portugal comes out of a long recession but this year finances seem to be doing better and unemployment dropped. I don't know about other social indexes though.

The Center-left is also pro-EU and pro-EU financial rules too is expected to be second. Euroskeptic communist and left parties are expected to get about 15%. The Portuguese seem to have avoided the mistakes other EU countries made and choose mainstream parties for government. Let's see if it will work or not.

I don't know much about the specific policies and personalities in those parties and I would like to know more.
I don't expect miracles anyway.

[Knight of Heaven]

Well i went to vote this morning, but personaly i was much more inclined to stay at home and watch My Soccer Games. Today its full of european classics, Bayern munich vs Borussia dortmund, Atletic vs Real Madrid, Arsenal vs Man Utd. and then there is the portuguese matches as well, it seemed to me a much better proposition. I was that laizy to go and vote if im being honest.
My will to vote was close to zero, and it is raining with strong winds on top of that....

But i went to vote anyway, knowing is basicaly useless, whoever is goverment Left or right, they are basicaly the same, but ill take anything then the current right wing coalition. Anything is better then Passos Coelho and Paulo Portas.
Antonio Costa the opposition of left mainstream party, while i dont see a drastic change in politics if he gets elected generaly speaking, it is still a far superior figure then those two, at least intelectualy speaking. And he has been knowned to do great work as mayor of Lisbon in previous years, where he actualy was able to reduce the enormous debt of the Portuguese Capital. Thats right he realy did manage to reduce drasticaly the enourmous debt of the Municipal Chamber of Lisbon. Maybe he can do it for the country too who knows.
Paulo Portas the leader of the Christian democratic party, and Vice prime minister, a position he blackmailed into it after he created a Political crisis in 2013, and we all know the international markets love a good political crisis and instability of credibility... yeah , it is that figure, wich was also involved back in 2004 with Corrupt submarine dealings with the German coorporation Ferrostal. In Germany the corruptors already faced trial and are currently jailed. Here in Portugal this theatrical clown is Vice prime minister. Meanwhile the tax payer is still paying for two submarines, in wich we only recieved one, and it isnt working as it should. Good times.

Our Prime minister and leader of the Social democratic party Passos Coelho, he is the typical product of Youth party, and propaganda machine, his first job was at 37, in one of those shady party influenced companies with an educational outlet in the front, and in the back the company was aimed to recieve and manage European comunitary funds. For you know business....

He is that figure, without a real political tought of his own. Just recently he was cought by the fiscal system, with taxes overdue, where he replied he didnt payed them because he didnt knew he had to pay them.
After he helped pass legislation previously on the subject.... ridiculous.
He is also knowned for encoraging portuguese people and yougsters to leave the country to find jobs... it is the level of our politicians.



Well you are mostly correct on what you said safe for a few things concerning the health of the country.
The deficit is not stable at all, it went back to 7% deficit recently, the same as it was back in 2011. And Public debt didnt stop growing during this time.

Im also very sceptical ( as most Portuguese people) on the unemployment numbers. It is true the number of unemployed registered in Jobcenters has lowered, I myself was registed at one time, not long ago and entered in the general unemployment rate, and then there was a long time when i wasnt even registered and was unemployed regardless, and didnt entered in that unemployed rating. And like me there is a lot of people.

But recent survey of INE ( national statistics instituition), conclude that most unemployed in the country are not even registered in job centers. Not counting the ongoing Emmigration waves of people.
The real unemployment is much higher then official numbers sugest.

There are few recent scandals during the coalition administration that didnt helped the issue, most of all, recently the BES, and GES bankrupcy scandal. And how they are still dealing with it.
There have been a number of dubious privatizations , among one this proceedings, is the New Bank ( supposedly non toxic remants of BES "Banco Espirito Santo", wich we found out recently that it has toxic assets, and it is costing loads of money to the state ) .
Aparently the tax payer is paying milions, and will continue to pay milions to get the bank afloat so they can eventualy sell the bank to the Chinese for a bargain price after the elections. Its the world we have after all Private Banks get bailout, only people never get any bailouts.... but this is another story.
The privatizations made during the coalition administration, wich were quite a few, have been everything but nicely handled, or clear for that matter. And always end up with people fired, and the rise of prices in the services, like the CTT ( Portuguese Post office company) where tons of balconies were closed and people fired. Not a big deal in Lisbon, or in the big cities, but a big deal in the interior of the country in places of not so higher population, or isolated locations.

And above all very litle was done to reform the state, and the economy, besides austere fiscal measures ( The raising of taxes, cuting pensions and such).

Exports were raised, mostly due to projects that were begun previously in early 00s, like the The Port of Sines, wich is the first largest artificial port of Portugal, and a deep water port one of the few in Europe.
Also the internal demand as risen as well, wich is fueling even more the private debt wich is even bigger that of Greece.
Auto europa manufacturer is curretly in risk more likely because of the WV scandal... wich would be a great hit in our export industry.. we will see how that develops.

All in all, i belive It doesnt matter much who is goverment left or right mainstream parties, allthough i think it would be prefarable to have Antonio Costa (PS) then those two.
I would also be very cautious of the polls, it might not be very representative of the actualy voting tendency. everything sugest that in this elections they are certainly not accurate. And the International observer already stated it is impossible to predict this particular elections. Specialy when you have tons of polls that contradicting each others right now.
from my personal experience take it as you will. the "word on the Street", majority of the electorate votes against the coalition, only the vote tendency is currently strongly spread out between the left parties. PS, BE, Livre, CDU, and Green party. One of the long lived issues has been of the inability of the left wing parties to form coalitions and reach a consensus, even the parties that are more closer to the center. This elections might be different we will see how it goes. I wouldnt be surpised either result to be honest.


And now back to my soccer games, it is going to be a hell of a sunday.. ill keep track of the election results during half times.

Btw an interesting note tomorow, October the 5th, is Republic day here in Portugal, celebrating the end of Monarchy and the beginning of the Portuguese Republic. It used to be national holiday, that was revoked in 2013 due to austerity. But is pending debate in 2018 thankfully.

Silly and useless measure the 4 holidays days they revoked.

[alhoon]

Well, by your account the socialists seem a far better choice. I agree that 4 holidays banned won't improve productivity but will lower morale. I also agree that corruptocrats should stay out of government coalitions.

[Knight of Heaven]

Well, by your account the socialists seem a far better choice. I agree that 4 holidays banned won't improve productivity but will lower morale. I also agree that corruptocrats should stay out of government coalitions.

Well not that the Socialists here dont have glass foundations and skeletons on the closet, or even out of the closet. One of Antonio Costa Mistakes, was to tag along close to Syriza on some issues rethoricaly speaking anyway, because was the Popular thing to do, and that turned out not so well.
But looking at the Political figures, Antonio Costa currently looks a better choice. But it is hard to tell what will be the results of this elections. There seems to be large number of parties, to vote for, more then usual and not seen in decades.

[DaVinci]

Paulo Portas the leader of the Christian democratic party, and Vice prime minister, a position he blackmailed into it after he created a Political crisis in 2013, and we all know the international markets love a good political crisis and instability of credibility...

Well, hm. That claim is controverse to the principles of international markets, where political stability is rather the aim, so businesses can run as planned, aka ie. long-term expansion-strategies, except for certain branches like ie. the weapon industry (and traders), which naturally profit from all types of political instability. Nonetheless, it is true, that certain economy-lobbyists aim for discrediting certain political developments including its politicians, where and when they can, to improving/evening for certain long-term market-strategies. The item is pretty complex to say the least.

[Stavroforos]

Which Portuguese parties correspond to which Greek ones, roughly?

[Knight of Heaven]

Which Portuguese parties correspond to which Greek ones, roughly?

Hum... in a basic kinda way, i would say:
-PSD ( Social Democrat Party/ CDS-PP ( Christian Democrat Party) The Coalition now knowned as simply as PaF ( Just dont, every joke every pun done to death seriously roughly translated means "Portugal in Front"... ) , that would be ND i guess.
-PS, Its the socialist party same family as Hollande PS same Symbology, core ideals and shared history etc, they are socialist in name only just like the French and Spanish PS but i guess PASOK would be the equivalent, now probably POTAMI to be more accurate i guess?!
-CDU or PCP the comunist party basicaly, and its currently the third largest party in parlament it would correspond to the KKE wouldnt it be? In Portugal is the only party to defend an exit to the euro. And probably of the EU and NATO ( im not sure of that one, as you need to take some stuff they say with a quite grain of salt.)
-BE ( left block) would probably be Syriza. But still Pro Euro and EU.
-Livre is a recent party somewhat like BE ( an offshoot of sorts actualy, but to me seems much less radical, and level headed personaly a good alternative to be a second Center left party, as it seems aimed to be more part of the solution then simply be an "protest party" Aparently anyway) dont know what corresponds in Greece political spectrum. As it is a quite recent party, created in midle of this crisis.
- Then there is the Green Party wich is tied to the Comunist party in a way, but it is still Green Party, same as it is in other countries like Germany and such.

At anycase the big Players are PaF, PS, CDU and BE usualy.

[Stavroforos]

PS would still be either PASOK or SYRIZA depending on how socialist you can consider either of those two parties, I guess. Livre sounds more like Potami. Are there no far right parties in your parliament?

[Victor Restes]

For Greeks curious about Portuguese.

-CDU or PCP the comunist party basicaly, and its currently the third largest party in parlament it would correspond to the KKE wouldnt it be? In Portugal is the only party to defend an exit to the euro. And probably of the EU and NATO ( im not sure of that one, as you need to take some stuff they say with a quite grain of salt.)

Obviously, the coalition is not even to close to CPG (Communist Party of Greece), considering that there's a Green party (Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes" ). But even the Portuguese Communist Party is closer to Laphazanes and not CPG, being given that their utopic programme is in favour of a mixed economy and a regegotiation of the debt.
Basically, clowns, CORAL in her innocent years.

Hint: Every communist party that is named like "French", "Italian" and not "of France", "of Italy" is not in good terms with the CPG, because their name implies that the special social situation in their countries means that a special application of the communist ideas is needed. In other words, eurocommies, revisionists, pest.

[Ludicus]

http://news.yahoo.com/mainstream-por...--finance.html

The gist: The moderate, center-right the ultraliberal government, more Papist than Merkel, is expected to win the elections.

Fixed that for you
Even if they win, a minority government is unstable.
----
Knight of Heaven

-PS they are socialist in name..
-BE ( left block) would probably be Syriza. But still Pro Euro and EU.

This.

[Knight of Heaven]

PS would still be either PASOK or SYRIZA depending on how socialist you can consider either of those two parties, I guess. Livre sounds more like Potami. Are there no far right parties in your parliament?

No. The most far right we got in parlament is the Christian Democrat Party, wich isnt far right obviously, only conservative socialy speaking, but not different then the usual Christian Democratic parties in europe, so again take conservative with a Grain of salt, it is the EU after all.
There was PPM wich is the Monarchic party, but i dont think it has seats in the parlament, and again they arent Far right either, they often form coalitions with Christian Democratic Party wich already has a wing of monarchic elements in it. Basicaly the PPM has same ideials of free market and individual property, and christian values, but belive the state should get a hold on strategic economic areas ( energy and such) ]
Also while they arent against EU, they are against the realization of an european federal state. And of course primary, obviously they want to have a monarchic model system implemented in Portugal similar that of England, Denmark and other Monarchic developed european countries. Not a bad party at all, when you look at it, but irrelevant in the end of the day in modern day. However i think they have parlamentary seats in Azores, autonomous region of Portugal.

Other than that, the far right Crazies and "Loonies" in Portugal are the PNR, wich no one takes them seriously thankfully. But they dont have Seats in parlament.
That would be closest to Golden dawn i guess. It is knowned as the Skinhead party, its comon of them to defend Salazar regime and such.
They are often the subject of mockery of humorists here in Portugal.

Originally Posted by alhoon
http://news.yahoo.com/mainstream-por...--finance.html

The gist: The moderate, center-right the ultraliberal government, more Papist than Merkel, is expected to win the elections."


Fixed that for you

Well yeah...

[Ludicus]

utopic programme

1) The renogotiation of the debt is necessary, the debt is unplayable.
2) A mixed economy is a reality.You see, there are market, planned, and mixed economies.
In a mixed economy, there are elements of both public and private enterprise.It's not an utopia,countries with mixed economies include Iceland, Sweden, France, the U.S, the U.K, Australia, and others.

.....

This is a country where the rigth-wing President of the Republic refuses to commemorate the Republic implantation, October 5.

[Stavroforos]

For Greeks curious about Portuguese.

Anything that isn't trash that can explain Portugal to Greeks?

Obviously, the coalition is not even to close to CPG (Communist Party of Greece), considering that there's a Green party (Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes" ). But even the Portuguese Communist Party is closer to Laphazanes and not CPG, being given that their utopic programme is in favour of a mixed economy and a regegotiation of the debt.
Basically, clowns, CORAL in her innocent years.

Hint: Every communist party that is named like "French", "Italian" and not "of France", "of Italy" is not in good terms with the CPG, because their name implies that the special social situation in their countries means that a special application of the communist ideas is needed. In other words, eurocommies, revisionists, pest.

Indeed, "Communist Party of Greece" is much more suited to "Moscow's mouthpiece" in its name.

[Victor Restes]

1) The renogotiation of the debt is necessary, the debt is unplayable.
2) A mixed economy is a reality.You see, there are market, planned, and mixed economies.
In a mixed economy, there are elements of both public and private enterprise.It's not an utopia,countries with mixed economies include Iceland, Sweden, France, the U.S, the U.K, Australia, and others.

Their claim that a mixed economy and a renegotiation of the debt will benefit the Portuguese people is utopic. Don't you see how well France and Denmark are doing?
Kerensky brought neither peace nor land to the Russian people and if the Portuguese people are clever enough, then Jerónimo de Sousa will share his fate.

Anything that isn't trash that can explain Portugal to Greeks?

Read before you judge. The article is a small summary of the recent Portuguese politics, no need to read or endorse the last propagandistic paragraph. You can then reach your own conclusions.

[Stavroforos]

I can't trust a communist source being neutral.

[Knight of Heaven]

BTW early projections. On the left projected percentage of votes, and on the right projected number of MPs ( member of parlament)

[Timoleon of Korinthos]

So did Tsipras' humiliation up the prospects of the Portuguese Left or were they non-entities in the first place? I mean, I see in the chart that only BE made it to the parliament.

[Knight of Heaven]

So did Tsipras' humiliation up the prospects of the Portuguese Left or were they non-entities in the first place? I mean, I see in the chart that only BE made it to the parliament.

Considering BE is the equivalent of Syriza im not sure if that is 100% accurate. You see PS didnt lost votes to PaF they did lose it to the other left wing parties. BE ( Letf block) being the bigest winner of this elections. ( They were already in parlament btw, now they are the third political force)
The right wing coalition actualy had a worst result then the previous elections of 2011. They did win this 2015 elections, but they are minoritary if they form goverment. I wonder how they will govern that way though. In theory If PS and BE could reach an agreement, they would govern without issue. But i dont know if that will happen. Not likely, i think.
There is nothing to brag about, besides uncertainty, at first case of unabilaty to pass a budget, political chaos is instaled, they cant govern as they want anymore that is for certain. It all depends of the status of PS and its leadership imo.
Wouldnt be suprised of snap elections sometime in the future.

This is the final results btw:

[Border Patrol]

Your country is shaped funny

[Basil II the B.S]

how much is abstentionism?