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Thread: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

  1. #181
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    As far as I can tell, there were no older cuts:
    Well technically again the 2016 - 2019 is cut because an inflation adjusted constant budget would be ~11,221 not the number on your graph. Every year after 2015 was a cut with more extreme cuts proposed by the current admin.

    -------------

    @BW

    How did you prove your point with a link repeated to one part of the CDC not the whole that given inflation is still a cut? Or have you addressed the fact that aside from congressional push back both the CDC and NIH would have been cut to the bone. You don't just magic science out of your arse. Its a process. You gut programs and it takes years to recover the experience and organization and committed individuals to do the job.
    Last edited by conon394; February 28, 2020 at 11:03 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

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    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  2. #182

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Well technically again the 2016 - 2019 is cut because an inflation adjusted constant budget would be ~11,221 not the number on your graph. Every year after 2015 was a cut with more extreme cuts proposed by the current admin.
    True, but the budget relevant to the overseas prevention discussion went from $45.4 million in 2015 to $98.4 million in the 2019. The 2020 proposal was $99.8 million.

    That's not counting the $597 million in emergency funding to help with Ebola that didn't run out completely until September 2019.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  3. #183

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Well technically again the 2016 - 2019 is cut because an inflation adjusted constant budget would be ~11,221 not the number on your graph. Every year after 2015 was a cut with more extreme cuts proposed by the current admin.
    Are you blaming Obama for these cuts you claim happened?

    And the AP Fact Check I provided above:
    "The National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention aren’t suffering from budget cuts that never took effect."
    "Instead, financing has increased."
    Last edited by Infidel144; February 28, 2020 at 11:20 AM.

  4. #184
    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    Correct, so the comparison is 0.1% to 2.3% as far as we currently know, but as Conon mentioned, 15-20% of cases are serious enough to require intensive treatment. What does the case mortality rate look like when they don't get it?
    I think that would explain the high lethality in Iran as well as in rural regions of China. The lethality based on all known cases would be 6%-7%, btw, so quite close to the rates in Iran.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    A German virologist who was participating in the discovery of SARS lately said that the pandemic is gonna be "bad", but becoming more specific, he compared it to the outbreak of some other virus in the late 60's where a million people died worldwide. So it's not gonna depopulate cities.

    Since the lethality consistently rises with age, i think only people aged above 65 (especially men) need to worry a little. I already checked on my parents and they seem to be well informed and prepared. The only thing one can do anyways is to regularly wash one's hands, avoid crowded events and maybe buy a pack of disposable gloves and breathing masks just in case, because those safety items will be harder to get with every week.
    Last edited by swabian; February 28, 2020 at 12:50 PM.

  5. #185
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Infidel144 View Post
    Are you blaming Obama for these cuts you claim happened?

    And the AP Fact Check I provided above:
    "The National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention aren’t suffering from budget cuts that never took effect."
    "Instead, financing has increased."
    err no. Technically I was responding to post #172 via Sumskilz. Where you can see increasing sending under Obama and flat line to drastic cuts under Trump.

    The problem is if we are judging the administrations in question you have to judge their requested budgets. The point of my graph in #167. That Congress decided not to gut US government science does not mean that you can claim credit for the administration.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  6. #186

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by swabian View Post
    I think that would explain the high lethality in Iran as well as in rural regions of China. The lethality based on all known cases would be 6%-7%, btw, so quite close to the rates in Iran.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    A German virologist who was participating in the discovery of SARS lately said that the pandemic is gonna be "bad", but becoming more specific, he compared it to the outbreak of some other virus in the late 60's where a million people died worldwide. So it's not gonna depopulate cities.

    Since the lethality consistently rises with age, i think only people aged above 65 (especially men) need to worry a little. I already checked on my parents and they seem to be well informed and prepared. The only thing one can do anyways is to regularly wash one's hands, avoid crowded events and maybe buy a pack of disposable gloves and breathing masks just in case, because those safety items will be harder to get with every week.
    Yeah, it's rare that otherwise healthy people under 65 die from it. When it has happened it's usually been medical professionals, so it could be due to the overall viral load. The case of the 23 year old female athlete in Iran is one exception.

    It might be a good idea, especially for older people, to buy an oxygen saturation monitor. At some point it's likely that people will be told to stay home if they're not terribly sick, but then it comes down to how do you know when you're too sick? Probably via a phone consultation with a medical professional, but they may be hard to get on the line in a timely manner if they're really overwhelmed. Like having a thermometer to know your temperature, having an an oxygen saturation monitor would be useful with this particular disease. They're about $20 in the US, so inexpensive.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  7. #187
    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Good ideas, thanks.

  8. #188

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    err no. Technically I was responding to post #172 via Sumskilz. Where you can see increasing sending under Obama and flat line to drastic cuts under Trump.
    Technically you claimed there were cuts under Obama.
    You said "Every year after 2015 was a cut with more extreme cuts proposed by the current admin."
    2016 and 2017 budgets were under Obama.
    So which is it?
    Are you claiming their were cuts under Obama or not?

    The problem is if we are judging the administrations in question you have to judge their requested budgets. The point of my graph in #167. That Congress decided not to gut US government science does not mean that you can claim credit for the administration.
    BW has addressed your post. You however have claimed there were cuts. In fact you claimed cuts took place under Obama. Now you seem to be back tracking on that. So which is it? Is AP Fact Check lying?

  9. #189
    B. W.'s Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by swabian View Post
    I think that would explain the high lethality in Iran as well as in rural regions of China. The lethality based on all known cases would be 6%-7%, btw, so quite close to the rates in Iran.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    A German virologist who was participating in the discovery of SARS lately said that the pandemic is gonna be "bad", but becoming more specific, he compared it to the outbreak of some other virus in the late 60's where a million people died worldwide. So it's not gonna depopulate cities.

    Since the lethality consistently rises with age, i think only people aged above 65 (especially men) need to worry a little. I already checked on my parents and they seem to be well informed and prepared. The only thing one can do anyways is to regularly wash one's hands, avoid crowded events and maybe buy a pack of disposable gloves and breathing masks just in case, because those safety items will be harder to get with every week.
    Don't forget to stock up on beer and whiskey as well.

    Home cure:

    Fill one glass with water and another with 1/4 whiskey. drink both.

    If you don't feel better the next day, reverse the proportions.

  10. #190

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Infidel144 View Post
    Technically you claimed there were cuts under Obama.
    You said "Every year after 2015 was a cut with more extreme cuts proposed by the current admin."
    2016 and 2017 budgets were under Obama.
    So which is it?
    Are you claiming their were cuts under Obama or not?
    I'll help you.

    "The problem is if we are judging the administrations in question you have to judge their requested budgets. The point of my graph in #167. That Congress decided not to gut US government science does not mean that you can claim credit for the administration. "



    BW has addressed your post. You however have claimed there were cuts. In fact you claimed cuts took place under Obama. Now you seem to be back tracking on that. So which is it? Is AP Fact Check lying?
    The cuts have already been visually provided in a graph. AP Fact Check is not talking about the same thing Conon is. Had you actually read you would've been capable of knowing this.

  11. #191

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    I'll help you.
    I have no need of your help.

    "The problem is if we are judging the administrations in question you have to judge their requested budgets. The point of my graph in #167. That Congress decided not to gut US government science does not mean that you can claim credit for the administration. "
    Utterly irrelevant.

    The cuts have already been visually provided in a graph. AP Fact Check is not talking about the same thing Conon is. Had you actually read you would've been capable of knowing this.
    Conon claimed every year after 2015 was a cut. As I quoted.
    Did you read that part Sukiyama?
    Last edited by Abdülmecid I; February 29, 2020 at 04:45 AM. Reason: Off-topic.

  12. #192

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Infidel144 View Post
    I have no need of your help.


    [/B]Utterly irrelevant.
    Then don't ask dumb questions. If you're going to ask anybody something, ask them about what they were talking about instead of strawmanning them.

    Conon claimed every year after 2015 was a cut. As I quoted.
    Did you read that part Sukiyama?
    Conon was specifically talking about U.S. Global Health Funding in a graph posted by sumskilz in post #172.
    Last edited by Abdülmecid I; February 29, 2020 at 04:45 AM. Reason: Continuity.

  13. #193
    Gigantus's Avatar I am not special - I am a limited edition.
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post
    yes, I did read it. See above. You still haven't selected a single line item from the official CDC budget report that I posted that shows a program cut. That's because there aren't any.
    I think I rather rest my case after demonstrating a reduction in the CDC budget based on the supporting PDF even after allowing for the 480m building expenses you pointed out. Asking me to provide a detailed item list for the remaining difference is ridiculous, simply open the full PDF and see for yourself.
    My question still remains: up to which percentage do you consider negative numbers to be 'no cut'? I called this particular number 'slightly reduced' if memory serves.

    As to the FY2020 budget from the link you give: did you note that the initial CDC page states a reduction in budget authority of roughly 1.280b? Given that there is barely any provision left for buildings from FY2019 I look forward to see a detailed list myself for the FY2020 CDC budget.
    I did address (and quoted from the budget speech) the specially mentioned 49.8(50)m increase in disease surveillance as well: it doesn't take a mathematical genius to deduce that the funds were re-allocated within the global health section when the budget clearly states that this section has been allocated 10m less (quoted that part of the budget speech as well) then the previous year. I have not been able to lay a hand on a detailed FY2020 budget else I would simply post that instead.

    Last edited by Gigantus; February 28, 2020 at 09:43 PM.










  14. #194
    Akar's Avatar I am not a clever man
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/trum...-new-hoax.html

    That's right folks, the President of the United States claims the corona virus (which has killed ~3000 people so far), is a Democratic hoax to help them win the election.

    Great.

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  15. #195
    Gigantus's Avatar I am not special - I am a limited edition.
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    I am rather more concerned about this 'cover your ass' artistry:
    Quote Originally Posted by linked article
    We will do everything in our power to keep the infection and those carrying the infection from entering our country. We have no choice,” Trump said. “Whether it’s the virus we’re talking about or many other public health threats, the Democrat policy of open borders is a direct threat to the health and well being of all Americans.
    Well, that power won't be enough and it has already failed. Apart from totally ignoring the way the virus spreads (see the spread from Italy to elsewhere) wouldn't the red part be a bit more correct by saying: "Damn Mexico for not paying for the wall"?
    Last edited by Gigantus; February 28, 2020 at 09:50 PM.










  16. #196

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gigantus View Post
    I think I rather rest my case after demonstrating a mild reduction in the CDC budget based on the supporting PDF even after allowing for the 480m building expenses. Asking me to provide a detailed item list for the remaining difference is ridiculous, simply open the full PDF and see for yourself.
    My question still remains: up to which percentage do you consider the negative number to be 'no cut'?

    As to the new\present budget: did you note that the initial CDC page states a reduction in budget allocation of roughly 1.280b? Given that there is no provision left for buildings from FY2019 I look forward to see a detailed list myself for the FY2020 CDC budget.


    There was no cut. Your graph is about a request. Congress did not accede to the request.
    The AP fact check article I provided notes this. CDC funding has increased.
    Here, even the the 'fact checkers' at Politifact acknowledge this:
    "It’s not accurate to say that Trump has been "defunding" the CDC, but he has tried to make cuts in key programs. It’s just that Congress didn’t listen."
    "Every year since Trump has been president, lawmakers have passed bills — bills signed by Trump — that not only exceeded what Trump requested on emerging infections but also exceeded what had been spent the previous year."
    https://www.politifact.com/factcheck...als-defund-cd/

  17. #197
    Gigantus's Avatar I am not special - I am a limited edition.
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Infidel144 View Post
    There was no cut. Your graph is about a request. Congress did not accede to the request.
    The AP fact check article I provided notes this. CDC funding has increased.
    Here, even the the 'fact checkers' at Politifact acknowledge this:
    "It’s not accurate to say that Trump has been "defunding" the CDC, but he has tried to make cuts in key programs. It’s just that Congress didn’t listen."
    "Every year since Trump has been president, lawmakers have passed bills — bills signed by Trump — that not only exceeded what Trump requested on emerging infections but also exceeded what had been spent the previous year."
    https://www.politifact.com/factcheck...als-defund-cd/
    Appreciated, that makes matters clear - which would seem to make it pointless to discuss comparative changes in the FY2020 budget speech and any material based on it (like that page in general and the highlighted 50m increase), right? Be it positive or negative. Or use any budget figures to start with.

    Do I take it that the numbers in the PDF (that I used) for FY19 are actual figures or is it just a request? It does say 'Final'....
    Last edited by Gigantus; February 28, 2020 at 10:10 PM.










  18. #198

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Akar View Post
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/trum...-new-hoax.html

    That's right folks, the President of the United States claims the corona virus (which has killed ~3000 people so far), is a Democratic hoax to help them win the election.

    Great.
    You are being disingenuous in my opinion.


    • President Trump says that Democrats are using the virulent coronavirus as a “hoax” to damage him and his administration.
    • “The Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus,” he said from a campaign rally in North Charleston, South Carolina. “This is their new hoax.”


    True, they are using this against him though now they are using it because he didn't do enough blah blah instead of this..




    Hoax isn't the best choice of words but its not like he is claiming its not a real thing. You know this I believe.
    "When I die, I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like Fidel Castro, not screaming in terror, like his victims."

    My shameful truth.

  19. #199
    Akar's Avatar I am not a clever man
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Regardless of reading between the lines why do you think it's appropriate for the president to say something like that?

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  20. #200
    Gigantus's Avatar I am not special - I am a limited edition.
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Phier View Post
    .../....

    Hoax isn't the best choice of words but its not like he is claiming its not a real thing. You know this I believe.
    I looked up 'hoax' and came up in general with this: "a humorous or malicious deception." If something else was meant then it's perhaps time POTUS45 updated his vocabulary instead of using his stock in trade comment for anything he considers against his opinion.

    I rather not comment on this attempt to put the corona virus issue on the same level as collusion and global warming.
    Last edited by Gigantus; February 28, 2020 at 11:17 PM.










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