Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[Basil II the B.S]

Did Bojo even need it? His lead is as solid as it can be. A good number of Conservative to BP voters are willing to return and give him a chance. What's more to get?

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Politicians are equally, if not more, damaged by a lack of melodrama than they they are by a few media frenzies. "Maybot" May should be evidence enough that in the social media age, the electorate doesn't warm toward politicians who are viewed as being distant and angular. The trick is to expose your humanity without making a genuine scandal. A politician might achieve this outcome by, for instance, having a public row with a partner or admitting that they snorted cocaine twenty years ago. Secondly, guess who isn't on the front cover of every newspaper today or being talked about on obscure video game forums. Yeah, Jeremy Hunt.

I disagree with the analysis of May, it wasn't that she lacked melodrama, it was more that her own media presentation was wholly reliant on 'Iron Lady mk2', right down to the 'humble origin' story, the trouble is May is not easy-going with the public. The idea too that all publicity is good publicity doesn't wash in British politics. The cocaine by the way did damage Gove and this weakness in combination with a poor pitch saw Hunt take the lead (and arguably some skullduggery too). Also just look at Farage, Corbyn or indeed Abbot- negative drama around these figures from the media is just damaging, any sympathy vote they might gain is tiny. The same is true of this for Boris.

My point might have been missed, but isn't that he's had a row with his partner- that can indeed be mitigated quite easily. But its that Boris has completely mishandled the media imagery of this, he's never been good at media strategy (he's relied on a friendly press, a luxury that his stint at the FO should have been disabused as no longer could he get away on this fact, the media changes the higher you get).

So you are right, this could be spun positively, the point is, and the media coverage is the evidence (as well as complete lack of response from Boris's team, they've been caught on the defensive) that this is not being spun 'in the positive i'm a normal chap' kind of way. Boris failed to seize control (again he didn't even mention this to his team, nor did she, who is it appears his chief spin doctor). That's the self-inflicted wound, its political incompetence that will have a negative impact, or may become even worse if he doesn't take control of the narrative soon/isn't lucky that a fresher story comes forward in the next day or so).

EDIT: Indeed as Basil rightly questions, this isn't good for Boris. The voters he has, will defend him, but the ones he needs to reach, who are not natural supporters will be put off (as again this is the doorway if not handled for a rehash of all his other failings both personally and politically, and lets be fair here, Boris has failed abysmally so far to get a lid on it). Its a self-inflicted and unnecessary wound on the first day of his campaign that exposed A) again his lack of political ability and B) Serious issues in shaping his own image in the face of what could have been a none-issue, but he's allowed to essentially blow up. There is no real positive case for this mess.

Nor in fact Jeremy Corbyn, who can hardly say anything about this incident, least it looks like opportunism. By all accounts his last meeting with Labour MPs wasn't an example of calmness either, but alas no recordings.


As Ep1c_fail says, this might actually work in his favour amongst a British electorate, more touchy feely these days than stiff upper lip, post Diana.

Indeed, Corbyn's essentially been given a lot of cover from Tory events, but from the stuff over the past week, he could be in real trouble particularly as it seems Tom Watson again is trying to seize the driving seat.

In terms of media, i think again its damaging, Corbyn's media strategy has been 'of the last resort' a defense spinning most media as hostile to disassociate the impact of negative press- his supporters will look at this and go 'damn Blairites and their Tory media', his detractors 'Can't lead, falling apart' and the middle-ground appeal Corbyn needs to ensure a GE victory (and don't get me wrong, he's a great campaigner, but essentially he has to work very hard at a GE to rebuild the support he needs, as opposed to the normal way in which parties can increase support by merely being effective opposition, also the Tories being in such a mess is a huge help- essentially Labour is positioned well at a GE, not because as in the past, they have a true lead, but because the Tories have fractured and the brexit party is going to take vote share from them to a greater extent) is beyond grasp.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

I was right about this being damaging-

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9354739/boris-johnson-fight-carrie-symonds-poll-prime-minister/

But the row put Hunt three points ahead with voters - with Johnson's lead among Tories collapsing to just 11 per cent.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8970806.html

The favourite’s lead among Conservative voters has more than halved since the incident on Thursday night – and rival Jeremy Hunt has snatched the lead among the wider public.More than half of voters said Mr Johnson's private life was relevant to his ability to be prime minister and three-quarters said a candidate's character was relevant to the contest.

“It is unusual to see a politician's private life having this level of salience among voters,” said Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of pollsters Survation.

Boris ratings have taken a major and rather dangerous slump among Tory voters because of this altercation. Most believe that how a politician conduct themselves in their private life is extremely important. As we all said i think, Boris is his own worse enemy, and while i don't think this alone is critical damage yet, it has taken (Through his own actions, not necessarily just having said fight, but more in his completely incompetent political response) what was until a few days ago merely a 'crowning', into an action race potentially (If Hunt is any good that is, its waiting to be seen ), the key short-term is the membership, but longer term this has damaged his wider electoral appeal, which given the Conservative parties current weakness is quite bad.

Here is the Westminster voting intention from yesterday:

LAB: 26% (+4)BREX: 23% (-3)CON: 20% (+3)LDEM: 16% (-)

https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...68466513010688

That is significant, the Tories are up, but because of the potential for a Boris/Hunt PMship, the Lib-dems vote i suspect is coalescing to Labour, we're now looking at Labour majority. The Brexit party has taken a hit due to Boris potentially being the next Tory leader, but it hasn't yet shifted enough, and its questionable if it will. If the conservatives do not totally regain their brexit party vote share as well as those they lost to the lib-dems, it'll be a Labour government at the next GE. Again evidence that ultimately, a Tory leadership battle is worse for the party, particularly as it puts them in the GE danger zone as a snap-election is currently very hard to put off- the Next PM (Probably still Boris) will not just have to deal with brexit, but also pass legislation that shapes the country for a post-brexit structure (A lot of legislation is indeed needed), the current arithmetic means that essentially every single piece is going to be a grueling battle, or indeed impossible as the former factions within the leave and remain camps further disintegrate on the post-brexit UK vision. So a snap GE is essentially the only way forward if Boris (or maybe Hunt) doesn't want to just sit on his hands until 2022 and get 0 passed (rather like May).

The other threat of course is the continuing promises from Conservative factions who threaten to crash their own government if things happen they don't like (No-deal brexit or attempting to side-line parliament), the Tory majority is now 5 (due to a Wales by-election) and that is with the DUP who are not exactly stable allies for the government. So its extremely likely this may also happen prior to the 31st October.

[Basil II the B.S]

Hunt would kill the party because he's too much at odds with the social conservative working class segment. Let's see.

[Cope]

I was right about this being damaging-

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9354739/boris-johnson-fight-carrie-symonds-poll-prime-minister/



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8970806.html



Boris ratings have taken a major and rather dangerous slump among Tory voters because of this altercation. Most believe that how a politician conduct themselves in their private life is extremely important. As we all said i think, Boris is his own worse enemy, and while i don't think this alone is critical damage yet, it has taken (Through his own actions, not necessarily just having said fight, but more in his completely incompetent political response) what was until a few days ago merely a 'crowning', into an action race potentially (If Hunt is any good that is, its waiting to be seen ), the key short-term is the membership, but longer term this has damaged his wider electoral appeal, which given the Conservative parties current weakness is quite bad.

Reactionary national polling - even of prospective Tory voters - isn't relevant. The outcome of the leadership competition is determined by Conservative Party members - almost non of whom will be influenced by this incident. By the time that a general election comes around, no one will be voting on the basis that Boris Johnson (assuming he is Prime Minister) had an inconsequential argument with Carrie Symonds years ago. The actual and immediate danger that Johnson faces is that Jeremy Hunt is a competent opponent who's been grossly underrated because of Johnson's celebrity status and Gove's superior media exposure. No one serious ever thought that Johnson was going to walk the final round, whoever it was against.

[Alastor]

I find it quite funny how so many Brits have complained about how undemocratic the EU is because it allows elected leaders to select Commissioners, when now Britain is about to get a new Prime Minister selected by a tiny fraction of Brits.

[Cope]

I find it quite funny how so many Brits have complained about how undemocratic the EU is because it allows elected leaders to select Commissioners, when now Britain is about to get a new Prime Minister selected by a tiny fraction of Brits.

You seem to be implying that British people haven't been complaining about that for years or that they aren't particularly sceptical of the legitimacy of Prime Ministers who are determined by internal leadership contests rather than general elections. The difference between the Commission and Westminster in this regard is that it's actually quite rare for a sitting Prime Minster not to have won a general election whilst a party leader. In the European Union, Commission members are always chosen by a handful of people.

[Exarch]

Brexit is such a major up to the interests of the UK, to the people of the UK that it would be to the good of the UK to just cancel Brexit and go, cap in hand and beg forgiveness from Bruxelles. Maybe they'll take you back, maybe they'll let you keep the British pound, but it's gonna take a major dose of contrition on the part of Britons to get this to work.

[Alastor]

You seem to be implying that British people haven't been complaining about that for years or that they aren't particularly sceptical of the legitimacy of Prime Ministers who are determined by internal leadership contests rather than general elections. The difference between the Commission and Westminster in this regard is that it's actually quite rare for a sitting Prime Minster not to have won a general election whilst a party leader. In the European Union, Commission members are always chosen by a handful of people.

What I implied is that Brexiteers seem to pretend this is an EU-only issue. And that is hypocritical to say the least. Even the sitting Prime Minister of the UK became one without winning a general election. And if not for her foolish gambit to call for one after becoming PM that led to her losing her majority, she wouldn't have participated in any general elections as a party leader at all.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Reactionary national polling - even of prospective Tory voters - isn't relevant. The outcome of the leadership competition is determined by Conservative Party members - almost non of whom will be influenced by this incident. By the time that a general election comes around, no one will be voting on the basis that Boris Johnson (assuming he is Prime Minister) had an inconsequential argument with Carrie Symonds years ago. The actual and immediate danger that Johnson faces is that Jeremy Hunt is a competent opponent who's been grossly underrated because of Johnson's celebrity status and Gove's superior media exposure. No one serious ever thought that Johnson was going to walk the final round, whoever it was against.

I'd disagree here. Its key because its likely that a snap-election is far more likely give the current political context than any soldering on for more than a year, let alone 2022. Also Tory voters are also likely to include Tory members, and the leadership election, while decided by the membership is also about convincing the wider electorate of a candidates suitability (hence why the hustings are televised) especially because of the likelihood of an rather immediate GE. Boris suffers in this area being polarizing anyway, its very unlikely he'll be able to win a GE for as long as the brexit party exists (and even then, the Tory voters who went lib-dem need to be courted back) screw-ups like this do not help, and sure this will not at all be a 'defining event', but i've never painted it as thus, i'm more pointing out that firstly, those arguing their would be no public impact of this from yesterday where seeing things far too positively about British politics and secondly that character counts for a lot, particularly to Conservative voters (and more aptly the spin that crafts that character and protects it), and also that Boris is not a savvy political operator, the incident highlights both how he blunders when there should be none, and worse how he is now unable to properly clear those blunders up. Hunt being a good political operator indeed, the fact is though he hasn't needed to do anything for this drop to happen, This is just how damaging Boris is to Boris .

[Cope]

What I implied is that Brexiteers seem to pretend this is an EU-only issue. And that is hypocritical to say the least. Even the sitting Prime Minister of the UK became one without winning a general election. And if not for her foolish gambit to call for one after becoming PM that led to her losing her majority, she wouldn't have participated in any general elections as a party leader at all.

This is almost certainly a lie. I have never seen any verifiable correlation between the belief that the United Kingdom should leave the European Union and the belief that Westminster is without democratic deficits in some areas.

[Alastor]

This is almost certainly a lie. I have never seen any verifiable correlation between the belief that the United Kingdom should leave the European Union and the belief that Westminster is without democratic deficits in some areas.

So not a lie then. And considering the extensive discussion over how undemocratic the EU is that has taken place in this very thread, clearly this is a factor for Brexit. I wonder with what legitimacy they could speak out against the EU and call it undemocratic, if they acknowledge the UK has a similar democratic deficit also. I would assume a good number doesn't. That's enough evidence to allow me to make my statement.

[Cope]

I'd disagree here. Its key because its likely that a snap-election is far more likely give the current political context than any soldering on for more than a year, let alone 2022. Also Tory voters are also likely to include Tory members, and the leadership election, while decided by the membership is also about convincing the wider electorate of a candidates suitability (hence why the hustings are televised) especially because of the likelihood of an rather immediate GE.

I know you disagree, I'm just saying that your source material doesn't support the conclusion that Johnson's chances of winning the leadership election have been damaged by this latest incident. For that you'd need a poll comprised exclusively of Conservative Party members who hadn't been affected by the hustings.

Boris suffers in this area being polarizing anyway, its very unlikely he'll be able to win a GE for as long as the brexit party exists (and even then, the Tory voters who went lib-dem need to be courted back) screw-ups like this do not help, and sure this will not at all be a 'defining event', but i've never painted it as thus, i'm more pointing out that firstly, those arguing their would be no public impact of this from yesterday where seeing things far too positively about British politics and secondly that character counts for a lot, particularly to Conservative voters (and more aptly the spin that crafts that character and protects it), and also that Boris is not a savvy political operator, the incident highlights both how he blunders when there should be none, and worse how he is now unable to properly clear those blunders up. Hunt being a good political operator indeed, the fact is though he hasn't needed to do anything for this drop to happen, This is just how damaging Boris is to Boris .

I find it extremely improbable that anyone will be voting against the Conservative Party at the next general election (which will probably be at least six months away) because Johnson once had an argument with his partner.

[Cope]

So not a lie then.

Er, no?

And considering the extensive discussion over how undemocratic the EU is that has taken place in this very thread, clearly this is a factor for Brexit. I wonder with what legitimacy they could speak out against the EU and call it undemocratic, if they acknowledge the UK has a similar democratic deficit also. I would assume a good number doesn't. That's enough evidence to allow me to make my statement.

I don't know why you think that opposing the EU's democratic deficit is contingent upon not opposing Westminster's. Even if I was going to pretend that the deficit was equal in both instances (which it isn't), there would still be no hypocrisy in focusing on removing the top layer of deficit caused by the European Union. Secondly, and I have no idea how you haven't noticed this, but the Brexit Party is explicitly angry at the existing democratic gaps within in the United Kingdom. They've been pretty clear about their desire to overhaul, not only the UK's relationship with the European Union, but also various aspects of its domestic constitutional settlement.

[Alastor]

You are trying to tell me that Brexiteers are as eager to denounce those perceived democratic deficits of the UK's as they are of the EU's? I think not. The Brexit party afterall is called the Brexit party, not the fix UK's democracy party. At this stage this is just navel-gazing. The fact remains that Brexiteers in this thread and elsewhere have consistently accused the EU of being undemocratic for doing things that happen in some form or the other in virtually all western democracies, including the UK. And that, yes, is hypocrisy.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

I know you disagree, I'm just saying that your source material doesn't support the conclusion that Johnson's chances of winning the leadership election have been damaged by this latest incident. For that you'd need a poll comprised exclusively of Conservative Party members who hadn't been affected by the hustings.



I find it extremely improbable that anyone will be voting against the Conservative Party at the next general election (which will probably be at least six months away) because Johnson once had an argument with his partner.

Tis a fair enough view then, though i'd say that a poll of Tory voters will include some members, and they will have similar attitudes (Also the wider electorate is the important thing here considering the political context that PM will be in). I do agree there, its not looking great generally for the Conservatives, but that's not at all what i'm saying there mate, throughout this i haven't said once that his single incident will be the end of his career (Indeed i've been sure to consistently point out that on its own, it likely won't). I said that it highlights another issue as to why (I.e. Boris's lack of political skill and how incapable he is when he doesn't have friendly press coverage to shield him) Boris is going to struggle, the contest is very much his to lose from polls going into this, and from his mishandling of this, its actually quite a high chance he will screw up. What's worse is it doesn't speak well to his future handling of a GE in which he as PM is going into this handicapped anyway. In regards to this specific event, its clear that Tory voters (of which some will be members or share similar attitudes to members) care a lot about a candidates character, Boris isn't on safe footing here as he again, lacks the political spin to protect that it appears. His handling of this incident speaks volumes to the difficulties he's going to face both in the leadership contest and then as PM trying to navigate a GE.

[Cope]

You are trying to tell me that Brexiteers are as eager to denounce those perceived democratic deficits of the UK's as they are of the EU's? I think not. The Brexit party afterall is called the Brexit party, not the fix UK's democracy party. At this stage this is just navel-gazing. The fact remains that Brexiteers in this thread and elsewhere have consistently accused the EU of being undemocratic for doing things that happen in some form or the other in virtually all western democracies, including the UK. And that, yes, is hypocrisy.

Westminster's democratic deficit is not equal in measure to that of the European Union and so there is no logical obligation for both to be opposed in equal measure. Rather amusingly, I further notice that you haven't even considered how easily your argument could be reversed: I might just as well highlight that parties such as the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP who are ardent proponents of the United Kingdom remaining in the European Union are all committed to domestic constitutional reform but have nothing to say on the issue of the European Union's democratic deficit. Am I to assume that you consider them to be "navel-gazing" hypocrites too, and if so, does that mean you favour parties which, like Labour, effectively ignore the deficit in both cases?

[Cope]

Tis a fair enough view then, though i'd say that a poll of Tory voters will include some members, and they will have similar attitudes (Also the wider electorate is the important thing here considering the political context that PM will be in). I do agree there, its not looking great generally for the Conservatives, but that's not at all what i'm saying there mate, throughout this i haven't said once that his single incident will be the end of his career (Indeed i've been sure to consistently point out that on its own, it likely won't). I said that it highlights another issue as to why (I.e. Boris's lack of political skill and how incapable he is when he doesn't have friendly press coverage to shield him) Boris is going to struggle, the contest is very much his to lose from polls going into this, and from his mishandling of this, its actually quite a high chance he will screw up. What's worse is it doesn't speak well to his future handling of a GE in which he as PM is going into this handicapped anyway. In regards to this specific event, its clear that Tory voters (of which some will be members or share similar attitudes to members) care a lot about a candidates character, Boris isn't on safe footing here as he again, lacks the political spin to protect that it appears. His handling of this incident speaks volumes to the difficulties he's going to face both in the leadership contest and then as PM trying to navigate a GE.

I don't disagree that whoever wins the Conservative Party leadership election is almost certain to have a difficult time in any forthcoming general election if the Brexit issue is not settled (or at least on the road toward being settled) prior to then. That said, it isn't definitive that Parliament will fail to reach any sort of consensus minus a general election. The dynamics are complicated, but its perfectly possible that Labour moderates in safe Brexit voting seats will push a Hunt/Johnson deal over the line in the hopes of disarming both the Corbynites and the external threat posed to Parliamentary stability by UKIP and the Liberal Democrats.

[caratacus]

Tis a fair enough view then, though i'd say that a poll of Tory voters will include some members, and they will have similar attitudes (Also the wider electorate is the important thing here considering the political context that PM will be in). I do agree there, its not looking great generally for the Conservatives, but that's not at all what i'm saying there mate, throughout this i haven't said once that his single incident will be the end of his career (Indeed i've been sure to consistently point out that on its own, it likely won't). I said that it highlights another issue as to why (I.e. Boris's lack of political skill and how incapable he is when he doesn't have friendly press coverage to shield him) Boris is going to struggle, the contest is very much his to lose from polls going into this, and from his mishandling of this, its actually quite a high chance he will screw up. What's worse is it doesn't speak well to his future handling of a GE in which he as PM is going into this handicapped anyway. In regards to this specific event, its clear that Tory voters (of which some will be members or share similar attitudes to members) care a lot about a candidates character, Boris isn't on safe footing here as he again, lacks the political spin to protect that it appears. His handling of this incident speaks volumes to the difficulties he's going to face both in the leadership contest and then as PM trying to navigate a GE.

But there are at least three involved in this incident not just Boris Johnson. Himself, his partner (it takes two to create an argument) and the politically motivated neighbour. I cannot see there is enough mud here to stick, at least as far as we know. What happened to the recordings? Could there be more embarrassing incidents recorded? It seems to me that the neighbour probably had been eavesdropping well before he called the police, maybe over the course of months. Could that be the reason Johnson is so reluctant to admit to something that most couples experience at some time. The timing of this all seems very suspicious given this stage in the leadership contest. As far as I am aware fits of rage are not something associated with Boris Johnson. The interview with Ian Dale however, certainly didn't do him any favours and resulted in another days bad headlines. Unless anything else comes out, this probably won't cause long lasting damage.

Boris Johnson row: The couple next door passionate about their opposition to Tories
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ndation-widget
At the height of the Conservative leadership battle, Eve Leigh posted a ‘tweet’ about her small contribution to the debate over who will be the next British prime minister. “Just gave Boris Johnson the finger,” she wrote, referring to her greeting for the prospective Tory leader staying at his girlfriend’s flat in the same block as Ms Leigh’s apartment in south east London. Ms Leigh, an American theatre producer, director and writer, has now deleted her Twitter account - possibly because the influence she and her husband, Tom Penn, have had over the leadership race.

[Alastor]

Westminster's democratic deficit is not equal in measure to that of the European Union and so there is no logical obligation for both to be opposed in equal measure. Rather amusingly, I further notice that you haven't even considered how easily your argument could be reversed: I might just as well highlight that parties such as the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP who are ardent proponents of the United Kingdom remaining in the European Union are all committed to domestic constitutional reform but have nothing to say on the issue of the European Union's democratic deficit. Am I to assume that you consider them to be "navel-gazing" hypocrites too, and if so, does that mean you favour parties which, like Labour, effectively ignore the deficit in both cases?

That is debatable. But hardly the point. And I really don't see how you reversed my argument there. Which was that I consider hypocritical the Brexiteer outrage over perceived democratic deficiencies in the EU, for things that happen in virtually all western democracies. Using as an example the PM election in the UK. Then, you brought the Brexit party up to back up your claim that in fact the Brexiteers are more even-handed in their criticism of democratic deficiencies. At which point I reminded you that it's called the Brexit party. Then you start bringing up other parties. You want to expose more hypocrisy in British politics? By all means go ahead. But my argument still stands.