View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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  • I support Ukraine fully.

    103 69.59%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.14%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.70%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    11 7.43%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.73%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.41%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #7461
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    @alastor. Why did you dodge all the questions about the Hersh Story and his general recent track record for not credibility? In any case will have to table this getting ready to hit the road for a long drive to a funeral a state away so will not be about to chat.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

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    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  2. #7462
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    Somehow the image of the US dragging a reluctant Poland away from Russian dominance does not quite ring true.
    Do reread the point I was making, I think that in your haste to make a flippant joke out of it you may have entirely missed it.
    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    @alastor. Why did you dodge all the questions about the Hersh Story and his general recent track record for not credibility? In any case will have to table this getting ready to hit the road for a long drive to a funeral a state away so will not be about to chat.
    Because I don't currently care to address that topic. I told you before you wrote all these questions that it's not about Hersh as far as I am concerned. As I mentioned I did not start believing that the US is likely responsible for the pipes blowing up because Hersh said so. I thought that was likely the case from the get-go simply because it's a far more rational scenario than the promoted alternative, ie that Russia for whatever reason blew up their own pipes.

    My condolences for your loss.
    Last edited by Alastor; February 17, 2023 at 02:43 AM.

  3. #7463
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    There's nothing here that seems relevant to the question I asked of Ludicus, but most of all, you're not Ludicus, so what good does this do other than distract?
    Apologies for the distraction. Your post was interesting and raised points that bubbled out of me, so I blame you . I especially like the point about rational actors. Putin's actions seem less and more rational viewed through various lenses. I think the macro lens of China vs US is an interesting one to see Putin's actions through.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    What does that have to do at all with Conon's post about mobilization being supposedly incompatible with wanting a peace deal? You can't will a peace deal alone, the other side has to be open to it and propose something you are likely to accept (not "leave all areas, and also Crimea, and we have peace" - such won't happen).
    Further to Muizers point about rational actors: Putin is an illegal actor through many lenses, not the least importantly in that I strongly feel he breaks Russian law in pursuing his invasion. The invasion weakened Russia, its poor conduct has accelerated NATO's spread and caused a demographic crisis in Russia, as well as revealing Putin's military incompetence. What it does do is attract some US resources. Not enough to draw cover away from Taiwan though.

    Putin kicked off an armed conflict he lacks the power to conclude rapidly: he should like Stalin have read his Machiavelli. Perhaps he is content with being China's proxy?

    So the "Russia will never surrender" crowd might be right in way, in that its up to Beijing to dictate Russia's surrender in Ukraine. Putin cannot afford to negotiate, not because "Bear Stronk" but because "Dragon says no".

    Materially Ukrainian striking power is being hardened to the point they may (as inconceivable as this seemed a year ago) be able to end the "Special Operation" be actually ejecting Russian forces from Crimea. While this will cost Ukraine immeasurable sacrifice, if Putin sees this as a fight with the US, then he has already lost heavily and stands to lose more.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  4. #7464
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Materially Ukrainian striking power is being hardened to the point they may (as inconceivable as this seemed a year ago) be able to end the "Special Operation" be actually ejecting Russian forces from Crimea. While this will cost Ukraine immeasurable sacrifice, if Putin sees this as a fight with the US, then he has already lost heavily and stands to lose more.
    I wouldn't be holding my breath here. Even Blinken is washing his hands off Crimea. If Putin sees this as a fight with the US, well he is correct. That's exactly what this is. So I'm not sure why the doubt. Without NATO's support Ukraine wouldn't be able to fight this war. So there is no question this is a fight with the US. With Ukraine as the proxy.

    I would also argue there is no question that Ukraine has already lost. Even if they were to push Russia out of the Crimea (which is extremely unlikely) they will still be in ruins. But the US, well the US might still win indeed, on some level or other. In that case it will all end well, another win for the good guys, in their Washington ivory towers toasting to the Ukrainians that died for their victory while counting their dollars.
    Last edited by Alastor; February 16, 2023 at 05:59 PM.

  5. #7465
    Peresvet's Avatar Civis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I agree. As history teaches, that's what happens, in the long term, to any empire. But you see, democracies also have empires- formal and informal empires, and some are both simultaneously. After ww2, the U.S. developed an "informal empire" through a global network of military bases and alliances. Biden rejected the Russian push for a sphere of influence over former Soviet nations, and informed Moscow that "spheres of influence should be relegated to the dustbin of history." So Ukraine can’t possibly lie lie within Russia’s security and influence sphere. And yet, the entire history of American foreign policy is nothing if not an exercise in exerting its own spheres of influence, from 1823 ( Monroe doctrine) until today.So, can you imagine how the US would respond if Russia or China sought to establish zones of military power or influence near the US?
    Putin destroyed the Russian empire, brought Ukraine out of Russian influence. With military aggression, he turned against Russia most of the neighboring peoples, Georgians, Baltic states, Ukrainians, Kazakhs. They no longer want to be part of the Russian world, which brings destruction and death, in Eastern Ukraine, Mariupol, other cities were wiped off the face of the earth. There is no greater harm to Russia and its international relations than Putin and his henchmen have done. In addition, he caused enormous damage to Russia itself, isolating it and destroying its economy, forcing the most intelligent and talented people to other countries.
    I am Russian and I hate putin and war. Stop war in Ukraine.

  6. #7466

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    I wouldn't be holding my breath here. Even Blinken is washing his hands off Crimea. If Putin sees this as a fight with the US, well he is correct. That's exactly what this is. So I'm not sure why the doubt. Without NATO's support Ukraine wouldn't be able to fight this war. So there is no question this is a fight with the US. With Ukraine as the proxy.
    The people of Ukraine could lay down their arms and march straight into the mass graves and gulags Putin has prepared for them if they so chose. You simply don't like it that they choose to defy Putin, and cannot imagine why anyone wouldn't want to be Putin's slave, so decide it must be some evil plot the evil United evil States of evil is evilly doing to evilly trick Ukraine into rejecting Dear Leader Putin.

    I would also argue there is no question that Ukraine has already lost. Even if they were to push Russia out of the Crimea (which is extremely unlikely) they will still be in ruins. But the US, well the US might still win indeed, on some level or other. In that case it will all end well, another win for the good guys, in their Washington ivory towers toasting to the Ukrainians that died for their victory while counting their dollars.
    Russia's military is modern, efficient, and highly motivated.

    Russian will take Kiev in three days.

    It's a not a rout, it's 4D chess.

    The Moskva didn't sink.

    The Moskva wasn't sunk by Ukraine.

    The mobilization will crush Ukraine.

    Unarmed conscripts are not being forced forward at gunpoint.

    Conscripts are not freezing to death from lack of even basic winter gear.

    The next offensive will be the one.

    Russia won't lose Crimea. You are here.

    Russia won't lose Donetsk.

    Russia won't lose Luhansk.

    Russia won't pay reparations.

    The Russian economy won't collapse.

    There won't be a civil war in Russia.

    Putin won't flee to Venezuela.

    The former territory of Russia won't be split between the EU and China.

  7. #7467
    Peresvet's Avatar Civis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    The former territory of Russia won't be split between the EU and China.
    I think that it your mistake of prognose. Russia like nazi Germany will be denazified and demilitarized, after this it will be democratic and peacefull country, like Canada, with fast development and open economy, with parlaiment republic and in NATO and EU.
    I am Russian and I hate putin and war. Stop war in Ukraine.

  8. #7468
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    The people of Ukraine could lay down their arms and march straight into the mass graves and gulags Putin has prepared for them if they so chose. You simply don't like it that they choose to defy Putin, and cannot imagine why anyone wouldn't want to be Putin's slave, so decide it must be some evil plot the evil United evil States of evil is evilly doing to evilly trick Ukraine into rejecting Dear Leader Putin.
    Sure they did. With our weapons and our money of course. Enough for a trick or two I'd say.

    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    Russia won't lose Crimea. You are here.

    Russia won't lose Donetsk.

    Russia won't lose Luhansk.
    Personally, I would put losing Donetsk and Luhansk above Crimea, but have it your way. Either way it's wrong. My opinion on this hasn't changed since last spring and the collapse of the Kiev offensive. I said then Russia will still win some kind of victory and I still believe that is the case. The US may also win some kind of victory too, that's also in the cards. The only certainty is that Ukraine (and the EU btw which is what personally bothers me the most) has lost.
    Last edited by Alastor; February 17, 2023 at 03:45 AM.

  9. #7469
    StarDreamer's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Personally, I would put losing Donetsk and Luhansk above Crimea, but have it your way. Either way it's wrong. My opinion on this hasn't changed since last spring and the collapse of the Kiev offensive. I said then Russia will still win some kind of victory and I still believe that is the case. The US may also win some kind of victory too, that's also in the cards. The only certainty is that Ukraine (and the EU btw which is what personally bothers me the most) has lost.
    I don't see how the EU has lost, it might finally be able to shake the toxic dependance on Russian energy, that in itself is a huge win.
    "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." -Albert Einstein
    https://www.politicalcompass.org/ana...2.38&soc=-3.44 <-- "Dangerous far right bigot!" -SJWs

  10. #7470
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by StarDreamer View Post
    I don't see how the EU has lost, it might finally be able to shake the toxic dependance on Russian energy, that in itself is a huge win.
    That was access to cheap energy, as well as access to tons of cheap resources for our industries. You know who profited from all this cheap stuff? The EU did. If the EU blundered in sth it was not taking adequate measures to secure alternatives for a rainy day when things were good, it blundered because it didn't diversify enough before turning on its supplier, not because it utilized Russian resources in the first place. Now we have lost access to basically a continent's worth of cheap resources right next door. As well as decades of investments in pipes and so on. Tell me, how exactly is that a win? That's without even taking into account the painful weaning off the EU had to endure from this toxic as you put it dependence. Which could have happened with minimal pain and on our own terms, if the EU wasn't led by blind idiots and US drones.
    Last edited by Alastor; February 17, 2023 at 04:30 AM.

  11. #7471
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Apologies for the distraction. Your post was interesting and raised points that bubbled out of me, so I blame you . I especially like the point about rational actors.
    Well no matter. I guess it was too optimistic to expect an answer from Ludicus anyway. I expect we will see him repeat the argument how prolonging the war only benefits the US and the military industrial complex at the expense of the prosperity of western people and Ukrainian lives. And I also expect him to remain silent on the Russian cost in lives and prosperity. Perhaps he believes they aren't worth anything. Because acknowledging that they are would nullify his argument that the onus is on the US lead West to end the suffering. It implies Russia is like a wild beast, an entity without human morality and reason. It should be obvious right?

    "Oh people of the West, you must end this needless suffering!"

    "What about Russia then?"

    "Uh, well that's just Russia being Russia, what can you do...."

    " "
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

  12. #7472
    Peresvet's Avatar Civis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Personally, I would put losing Donetsk and Luhansk above Crimea, but have it your way. Either way it's wrong. My opinion on this hasn't changed since last spring and the collapse of the Kiev offensive. I said then Russia will still win some kind of victory and I still believe that is the case. The US may also win some kind of victory too, that's also in the cards. The only certainty is that Ukraine (and the EU btw which is what personally bothers me the most) has lost.
    Wishing the victory of Russia, you apparently wish the victory to the same monster that symbolizes your nickname, since I myself am a Russian and I know a lot about what a people-hating and unjust regime exists in Russia at the present time.
    I am Russian and I hate putin and war. Stop war in Ukraine.

  13. #7473
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Peresvet View Post
    Wishing the victory of Russia, you apparently wish the victory to the same monster that symbolizes your nickname, since I myself am a Russian and I know a lot about what a people-hating and unjust regime exists in Russia at the present time.
    Learn to tell the difference between wishing for sth and acknowledging its likelihood.

    And enough with the self-flagellation already. I get it, you are one of the good Russians, not like all those bad ones back home. Congrats, here is your brownie badge. But if you think I'm going to applaud someone who wishes for the defeat and suffering of his own people, no matter who they are, you are talking to the wrong European.

  14. #7474
    Peresvet's Avatar Civis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Learn to tell the difference between wishing for sth and acknowledging its likelihood.

    And enough with the self-flagellation already. I get it, you are one of the good Russians, not like all those bad ones back home. Congrats, here is your brownie badge. But if you think I'm going to applaud someone who wishes for the defeat and suffering of his own people, no matter who they are, you are talking to the wrong European.
    Wishing the defeat of Russia today is the same as wishing the defeat of Hitler and Nazi Germany. At the same time, the current Putin regime is even more dangerous, since it holds nuclear weapons in its hands and uses the resource dependence of many countries. And so all signs are the same.
    I am Russian and I hate putin and war. Stop war in Ukraine.

  15. #7475
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Peresvet View Post
    Wishing the defeat of Russia today is the same as wishing the defeat of Hitler and Nazi Germany. At the same time, the current Putin regime is even more dangerous, since it holds nuclear weapons in its hands and uses the resource dependence of many countries. And so all signs are the same.
    People nowadays really need to decide who Hitler is. Way too many candidates. Anyone we don't like basically. This is a pathetic dodge for your lack of filial empathy. If you lamented the suffering of your people, but acknowledged that sth good may come out of it, that would be one thing. But to actually throw your lot with those who consider you orcs and want you destroyed... is quite another.

  16. #7476
    Peresvet's Avatar Civis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    People nowadays really need to decide who Hitler is. Way too many candidates. Anyone we don't like basically. This is a pathetic dodge for your lack of filial empathy. If you lamented the suffering of your people, but acknowledged that sth good may come out of it, that would be one thing. But to actually throw your lot with those who consider you orcs and want you destroyed... is quite another.
    I wish the Russians and Russia only kindness, peace and prosperity, and my empathy is at a high level, only I understand that this is possible only after the collapse of the Putin regime. Now I could already be lying dead in the fields of Ukraine, if I had not left. And tens of thousands of Russians lie dead. You do not feel sorry for them if you support the Putin regime.
    I am Russian and I hate putin and war. Stop war in Ukraine.

  17. #7477
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Peresvet View Post
    I wish the Russians and Russia only kindness, peace and prosperity, and my empathy is at a high level, only I understand that this is possible only after the collapse of the Putin regime. Now I could already be lying dead in the fields of Ukraine, if I had not left. And tens of thousands of Russians lie dead. You do not feel sorry for them if you support the Putin regime.
    Uhuh, you feel sorry for them while supporting the regime that got them shot dead and the governments that provided them the means to do so. Right. The old saying goes: "My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right." What you are doing though is more akin to desertion, followed by treason in an attempt to justify it. Like I said, some in the anti-Russian west may applaud you for that. I will not.

    Now let's move on.

  18. #7478
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post


    Further to Muizers point about rational actors: Putin is an illegal actor through many lenses, not the least importantly in that I strongly feel he breaks Russian law in pursuing his invasion. The invasion weakened Russia, its poor conduct has accelerated NATO's spread and caused a demographic crisis in Russia, as well as revealing Putin's military incompetence. What it does do is attract some US resources. Not enough to draw cover away from Taiwan though.

    Putin kicked off an armed conflict he lacks the power to conclude rapidly: he should like Stalin have read his Machiavelli. Perhaps he is content with being China's proxy?

    So the "Russia will never surrender" crowd might be right in way, in that its up to Beijing to dictate Russia's surrender in Ukraine. Putin cannot afford to negotiate, not because "Bear Stronk" but because "Dragon says no".

    Materially Ukrainian striking power is being hardened to the point they may (as inconceivable as this seemed a year ago) be able to end the "Special Operation" be actually ejecting Russian forces from Crimea. While this will cost Ukraine immeasurable sacrifice, if Putin sees this as a fight with the US, then he has already lost heavily and stands to lose more.
    I don't agree with any of that. Not because I care about Russia, but given how dangerous it is to think this sums up how things are. Yes, Russia botched the war and its conventional arm forces are not looking good when faced with similar numbers with western modern weapons. But Ukraine isn't producing its own weapons and can't maintain or boost production if it needs to. Doesn't matter much that they hold the line currently, no one will remember that if the front collapses due to lack or inability to provide them with more ammunition/weapons.
    As for China, it is a dream, based on nothing, that it will either annex parts of Russia or that it will turn on Russia. Their border with Russia is a continent itself.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  19. #7479
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    The old saying goes: "My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."
    Another old saying goes "might makes right".

    Combine the two and you get "The only way to do what is right for your country is to do what the rulers of your country tell you is right for your country"
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

  20. #7480
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    Another old saying goes "might makes right".

    Combine the two and you get "The only way to do what is right for your country is to do what the rulers of your country tell you is right for your country"
    Nobody said being a hero is easy.

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