View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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  • I support Ukraine fully.

    103 69.59%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.14%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.70%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    11 7.43%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.73%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.41%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #6781
    StarDreamer's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Septentrionalis View Post
    Exactly. The more countries have nuclear weapons, the greater the chance that somewhere, sometime, someone will use them irrationally. In precisely the kind of scenario you describe or, without any utter loss, in some other kind of "after me the deluge" situation. Such as a deranged dictator who learns that he is terminally ill.

    The worst thing to me now is that in my personal view Putin has a chance, however small, of being that person. He clearly does not care about the lives and human rights of Ukrainians, and he doesn't care about the wellbeing of his own people. He is willing to sacrifice Russian lives and economies, and he has ideas of grandeur and of going into history as the modern equivalent of Peter the Great. Who knows if his folly will increase.

    I recently listened to a podcast interviewing William J. Perry, one of the creators of the US strategic nuclear program. He is an elderly but clear-minded individual who has turned an anti-nuclear activist. As I recall, one of the main points presented was that a nuclear war can start by accident. By a misunderstanding of an impending attack. Or a deliberate attempt to generate a misunderstanding. And the chance of that happening is now great because nuclear weapons are on the table, so to speak. If at this moment either the west or Russia got false information of an attack on the way, the chances of it being taken seriously is greatly elevated over when there is no war and brandishing nuclear weapons.

    The podcast series is a paid one, but I believe this episode is outside the paywall because of the importance of its message. Please anyone listen while doing your chores, if you are interested.

    https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/m...logic-doomsday
    I agree. Unfortunately it saddens me that even this thread has people that think that it is an option for the west to a) back down in front of nuclear threats b) in case of a nuclear attack, do nothing.
    Either of these would utterly shatter non-proliferation and even if the response in b) would be conventional it would still likely lead to a escalation to full nuclear. By threating nukes, even indirectly Russia has forced the west's hand. The west will have to support Ukraine, or face an unprecedented nuclear arms race with a very high probability of it ending in disaster.
    "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." -Albert Einstein
    https://www.politicalcompass.org/ana...2.38&soc=-3.44 <-- "Dangerous far right bigot!" -SJWs

  2. #6782
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    The worst thing to me now is that in my personal view Putin has a chance, however small, of being that person. He clearly does not care about the lives and human rights of Ukrainians, and he doesn't care about the wellbeing of his own people. He is willing to sacrifice Russian lives and economies, and he has ideas of grandeur and of going into history as the modern equivalent of Peter the Great. Who knows if his folly will increase.
    The Peter the Great thing is actually a good thing. Putin may not value any particular Russian life much but he does value Russia and its greatness as an ideal. I rather doubt he want's see that utterly destroyed in a strategic exchange, nor the humiliation of coordinated NATO conventual attack in response to a tactical weapon use (and potentially harm his relationship with China and India). His saber rattling is sufficient to convince enough people in the west he might do so as to tap down western aid. He is playing the long game and figure his people are more apathetic than western ones and he can out last the west and a freezing Ukraine.

    I recently listened to a podcast interviewing William J. Perry, one of the creators of the US strategic nuclear program. He is an elderly but clear-minded individual who has turned an anti-nuclear activist. As I recall, one of the main points presented was that a nuclear war can start by accident. By a misunderstanding of an impending attack. Or a deliberate attempt to generate a misunderstanding. And the chance of that happening is now great because nuclear weapons are on the table, so to speak. If at this moment either the west or Russia got false information of an attack on the way, the chances of it being taken seriously is greatly elevated over when there is no war and brandishing nuclear weapons.
    I tend to think anti -nuke types play up the accident event why to much. The data points such as we have tend to show sate actors and or their personal are rather not inclined to jump without real confidence the other side really means nuclear war. And one story sounds we were always just one accident away... but collectively everyone in fact did not choose to jump on one data point, one event or one accident.

    @Cyclops

    I wish we could put Cheney in the dock
    I agree nice fantasy. But political suicided for either US party to do. Particularly when the War in Iraq has been forgotten so fast in the collective memory. I mean really in the US you likely have more people invested in the effects of agent orange on vets and/or the people of Vietnam, unexploded mines (in the region) and missing POWs than manage to care about Iraq.

    -----------------------


    @Ludicus

    Really Ludicus please do not cite Kissinger a war criminal and man who helped create some of the worst US decisions of the 20th century and who still alive presumably because he had a good lawyer read his contract with Satan to inflict his opinions on the world is not going to help your argument.
    Last edited by conon394; December 20, 2022 at 08:44 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  3. #6783
    Mithradates's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    As the Russian offensive gains momentum...


    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Before the war, far right Ukrainian nationalist groups like the Azov Brigade...
    Lies.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    February finds General Surovikin at the gates of Kiev...


    About Bakhmut.
    Unlike Bunker Boy, Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits troops near Donbas frontline.


  4. #6784
    Stario's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Something the CNN viewers are unlikely to be aware of here on TWC, but the Russian offensive said to begin within days.
    The Russian's said to be deploying 1.2 million troops (probably this is overblown and actual # closer to 800k, while Ukraine is said to have about 250k but they could boast this number to 500k by utilising all the reservists/ basically untrained fresh meat going to the grinder...)
    This is beginning of the end for Ukraine. Ukrainian defeat is all but inevitable; unfortunately there's going to be alot of dying between now and then. 😢
    The defeat of Ukraine will also be very embarrassing for US/NATO...
    Last edited by Stario; December 21, 2022 at 05:22 AM.

  5. #6785

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Something the CNN viewers are unlikely to be aware of here on TWC, but the Russian offensive said to begin within days.
    The Russian's said to be deploying 1.2 million troops (probably this is overblown and actual # closer to 800k, while Ukraine is said to have about 250k but they could boast this number to 500k by utilising all the reservists/ basically untrained fresh meat going to the grinder...)
    This is beginning of the end for Ukraine. Ukrainian defeat is all but inevitable; unfortunately there's going to be alot of dying between now and then. 
    The defeat of Ukraine will also be very embarrassing for US/NATO...
    You are hilarious. You might want to rethink from where you get your information though...

    1.2M. That's about the sum of all military personnel Russia had on the start of invasion+conscripts and mobilized troops since then. Consider the losses, amount of personnel in support roles, troops that can't participate because they're manning the necessary garrisons, serving in the navy outside Black Sea or other services that don't participate in the invasion, or are deployed in others military commitments, and you'll see that Russia doesn't have the numbers. Not even close to 800k. Best I can tell, if they really scrape the bottom of the barrel with mobiks in training and the fresh conscripts, they could send additional 200k cannon fodder to the frontline. Their capacity to raise specialists, even if they had the time, is now virtually non-existent, because they sent them all to the front, pushing for quick victory.
    Those poor mobiks would freeze to death though. The early stages of the war showed clearly that Russia does not have capacity, even with full Belarusian support, to field more than ~200-300k troops in Ukraine. The logistics just can't handle it.

    As for AFU...even with pessimistic estimate for casualties, their number is well above 500k. Many of those are troops mobilized on the start of the invasion....but that was 9 months ago. They've already gone through full training, combat deployment, and many are receiving additional training in allied countries. They're not mobiks who were dragged off the street one day and ended in Ukraine within a week.

  6. #6786
    Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Maybe these 800,000-1,200,000 troops being trained outside Russia, hence the maskirovka exodus.



    Back in the real world, Putin barely scratched together 300,000 bodies from his illegal mobilisation before it died of cringe and sadly some of them hit the mud last month.

    However Russia will be massively boosted by their creative brigades.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64016599

    Learn the balalaika they said. It'll be fun they said.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  7. #6787
    EmperorBatman999's Avatar I say, what, what?
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Maybe these 800,000-1,200,000 troops being trained outside Russia, hence the maskirovka exodus.



    Back in the real world, Putin barely scratched together 300,000 bodies from his illegal mobilisation before it died of cringe and sadly some of them hit the mud last month.

    However Russia will be massively boosted by their creative brigades.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64016599

    Learn the balalaika they said. It'll be fun they said.
    Russia has certainly had a tough time during this whole war, they reverted from 21st century tactics, to Cold War tactics, to World War II tactics, down to World War I trench warfare, and now, finally Napoleonic warfare with frontline marching bands!

  8. #6788
    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Russia is suffering like never before since world war 2. They will see Ukraine becoming a part of the European Union show, and Putin will struggle to be in power like never before. If he fails he will hopefully be sunk on his superyaht in the Black Sea. Russia is bound to fail, they always were. Nothing has fundamentally changed. I'm happy to be young enough to watch Putin struggle, fail, suffer and die. This truly is a pleasure.

  9. #6789

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    The Peter the Great thing is actually a good thing. Putin may not value any particular Russian life much but he does value Russia and its greatness as an ideal.
    I'm pretty sure it's not the case, or he'd care more about economic state of his country. He may value his own "greatness", and see strong country as instrument to achieve that. But after irrevercibly staining his reputation will he really care about any positive legacy? I bet nothing matters to him outside his ambitions.

  10. #6790

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    While we wait for the sudden and decisive Russian victory any minute now... any minute... now? No? OK. As we wait for that... their recent offense towards Bakhmut failed as the Russians had to stop trying with no attempts for days. Wagner have been waging an existential struggle to take over Bakhmut for the past few months without much success.
    Last edited by PointOfViewGun; December 22, 2022 at 07:46 AM.
    The Armenian Issue

  11. #6791
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    @Ludicus

    Other international relations experts rather disagree.

    "Lies, damned lies, and stupidity:Gfoeller & Rundell in Newsweek"

    https://slantchev.wordpress.com/2022...l-in-newsweek/

    "While the authors are quite nebulous about what “victory” Putin expected to achieve, their assertion about “autonomy for the Russian population in Donbas” is a bald-faced lie. Putin recognized Donbas independence before the attack even began “


    This a key point you like to ignore Putin clearly moved past the autonomy thing before the invasion.
    Last edited by conon394; December 22, 2022 at 08:45 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  12. #6792
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    That's hilarious, what possible comparison is there between Putins invasion and the slave owners revolt?

    The Russian Anaconda is dead, they dont control the principle north south river system, they havent diplomatically isolated Ukraine and they dont enjoy a massive industrial advantage.

    What idiocy.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  13. #6793
    Peresvet's Avatar Civis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Hi all. I am from Russia and I confront putinism and war , I visited protest action in february 2022 against war with antimilitary banner for support Ukraine and get criminal repression against me, criminal investigation. Now I go away from Russia, but I hope for destroing putinist regime and i hope return. Thanks for all people, who think that not all russians are putinists and supporters of war. I am fight with regime before war, but now it very risky. In our country now many people think that I am a traitor and many of people, who zombied by putinist propaganda hate me. But I save hope for finish war and changing regime for return in my home, because i hate state and putinist regime, but I love beauty of Russia and my home near sea.
    Last edited by Peresvet; December 23, 2022 at 05:08 AM.

  14. #6794
    saamohod's Avatar Tiro
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    A fresh investigation of Bucha killings by NYT:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qm7skZhsHVU



    @Peresvet
    People of your kind are the minority in today's Russia, which makes you even more valuable.
    Last edited by saamohod; December 23, 2022 at 05:49 AM.
    "Orcs were mustering, and far to the east and the south the wild peoples were arming."
    J.R.R.Tolkien.

  15. #6795
    Peresvet's Avatar Civis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by saamohod View Post

    @Peresvet
    People of your kind are the minority in today's Russia, which makes you even more valuable.
    Thanks. Many of russian nationalists and national-democrats, liberals like Navalny, Tesak, Demushkin, Nemtsov, Yashin, thousands, killed by putinist regime or situated in prisons, or located with permanent pression and censorship of regime. But in Russia and in other countries live many people, millions, who hated this regime and save hope for freedom of Russia.
    Last edited by Peresvet; December 23, 2022 at 05:18 AM.

  16. #6796
    mishkin's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by saamohod View Post
    A fresh investigation of Bucha killings by NYT:
    video only available on youtube due to age restriction
    Last edited by mishkin; December 23, 2022 at 05:19 AM.

  17. #6797
    saamohod's Avatar Tiro
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    True.
    Russia has long been doing lots of age-restricted things to my people.
    Last edited by saamohod; December 23, 2022 at 06:08 AM.
    "Orcs were mustering, and far to the east and the south the wild peoples were arming."
    J.R.R.Tolkien.

  18. #6798
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    That's hilarious, what possible comparison is there between Putins invasion and the slave owners revolt?

    The Russian Anaconda is dead, they dont control the principle north south river system, they havent diplomatically isolated Ukraine and they dont enjoy a massive industrial advantage.

    What idiocy.
    It is a pretty bad around as an attempt at a historical analogy. Maybe that's why they ended up in Newsweek and not a top tier paper.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  19. #6799
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Zelensky, on his visit to Washington, failed to get the offensive weapons he wanted, to hit Russia in depth. The promised Patriot battery will not arrive in Ukraine for another few months. This offer is mostly symbolic. What is very significant is the huge offer of financial aid. “U.S. assistance to Ukraine in its war against Russia will top out at more than $100 billion for the year'About $45 billion' in new Ukraine aid tucked into omnibus bill
    ... and weapons, Keeping track of the single largest arms transfer in US history

    ----
    What Zelensky wanted and what Biden is willing to give. Biden says,
    Remarks by President Biden

    Why don’t we just give Ukraine everything there is to give?” …the idea that we would give Ukraine material that is fundamentally different than is already going there would have a prospect of breaking up NATO and breaking up the European Union... I’ve spent several hundred hours face-to-face with our European allies and the heads of state of those countries…They’re not looking to go to war with Russia. They’re not looking for a third World War”.
    Reading between the lines, one sees that Biden's perspective is not the same as Zelensky's, who only accepts a crushing and total victory, while Biden ambiguously refers to a "just peace."
    This is the interpretation of some political commentators that I heard on the night of December 21, on CNN Portugal prime time, and who understand that sooner or later a treaty for security in Europe must be reached that includes Russia, and Ukraine will have to accommodate some territorial losses to achieve peace.

    I find the statements of some American Democrats to be unwise. Chuck Schumer says that the new ambassador to Russia, Lynne Tracy, " will be tasked with standing up to Putin,” and Bob Menendez says “Tracy will not shy away from confronting Putin's abuses”, in counterpoint to the article I have already mentioned Looking back at a 'Golden Age' of US-Russia diplomacy

    In fact, not all European countries agree that the new American ambassador should speak for Europe*, nor do many Americans accept that Lynne Tracy should represent Ukraine, unlike Bob Menendez, who assured that “America needs her in her post, Europe needs her in her post, Ukraine needs her in her post”

    Some members of the Republican majority that takes office in January have already made it known that "Ukraine is important, but at the same time it cannot be the only issue on our agenda" said in October the likely future leader Kevin McCarthy.

    * France's Macron Calls on Europe to Reduce Reliance on U.S. ...
    An alliance isn’t something I should depend on…” Mr. Macron said. “We must rethink our strategic autonomy.

    Macron ″delays″ Kiev's entry into NATO so as not to anger Russia...

    Macron believes that Ukraine’s entry into NATO would be seen by Russia as a direct confrontation, so he argues that this will not be the “most likely scenario” in the near future.
    “Ukraine’s entry into NATO would be perceived by Russia as a confrontation. It is not this Russia that we want” to deal with.
    Regarding Ukraine's entry into the EU, Macron said last May that, Ukraine bid to join EU will take decades says Macron - BBC

    Tell me, for this is what it's all about: is it really necessary to fight to the last Ukrainian, and renounce a territorial compromise, which is essential for peace?
    ---

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post
    I wonder, if Ukraine manages to drive Russia out of Crimea.
    The overwhelming majority of international commentators know that this is almost impossible.

    --
    As in any country in the world, there are always supporters of the respective governments and those who are not.
    Russia, public opinion.
    Once again, the poll that the Washington Post mentioned, Most Russians
    Seventy-eight percent of Russians said it would be unacceptable to return Crimea to Ukraine, while 66 percent said the same of the eastern Donbas region, which remains occupied by Russian forces and their Ukrainian allies



    Last edited by Ludicus; December 23, 2022 at 08:17 AM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  20. #6800
    Peresvet's Avatar Civis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by saamohod View Post
    True.
    Russia has long been doing lots of age-restricted things to my people.
    I would like on my knees to ask for forgiveness from Ukraine and Ukrainians for all the crimes of my country, although I am not personally involved in them, I, as an activist, could not stop Putin and overthrow him. He created a tyrannical police system in a country where any resistance is burned out very quickly.

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