Thread: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

  1. #3621

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    Orthodox Jews are the Haredi I already mentioned. Their fertility rate isn't 3. It's 7. Mormons and Amish people have similar rates.
    One thing I'm interested in is whether they'll be able to mantain these rates once their group is large enough. If they do, then liberals are completely ed and considering at this point many of them have reached the status of religious fanatics, having them face equivalent zealots can be fun.

    For the rest, having a 2.1 for conservative Christians isn't enough, because liberals swell their numbers by importing third world migrants and promising them handouts. That works a lot quicker than generational change. I personally think at a certain point the slave will revolt against the master, but so long they can make a common cause against whites, conservatives and Christians, it's going to work out for them. Indeed part of the reason I think Mormons and Amish are the bastion of Western values is that they are just as intolerant as liberals. If you do not adhere to the former's lifestyle, you face social banishment.

    More from Orwellian liberals:
    A group of liberal billionaires wrote an open letter to call for an increase of taxes on the rich.
    https://www.ft.com/content/2d643444-...b-30c211dcd229

    The group includes George Soros, who transferred nothing short of $18 bn to his foundation last year, so that it can't be touched by the tax man.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/george-...ant-1508252926

    Why are the heros of liberals such hypocritical scumbags?
    Last edited by Basil II the B.S; June 25, 2019 at 03:02 AM. Reason: correct data

  2. #3622

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Basil II the B.S View Post
    Orthodox Jews are the Haredi I already mentioned. Their fertility rate isn't 3. It's between 9 and 12. Mormons and Amish people have similar rates.
    I imagine it is similar elsewhere, maybe higher where there is a better economy and/or more state benefits, but in Israel, Haredi Jews have a fertility rate of 7.1. For Modern Orthodox it's 4.2. Modern Orthodox are obviously functional in a modern society and fully integrated into the broader culture wherever they live. For Haredi Jews, that's not always the case, but at least they have extremely low crime rates.

    In New York, there is a small town that is almost entirely Haredi, it has one of the highest poverty rates in country and one of the lowest crime rates in the country. So much for poverty being the main cause of crime. Although the one type of crime that does exist is harassing dissidents within their group and throwing rocks at the cars of Jews who drive on shabbat.

    As far as I know, Europe doesn't really have any group like traditional Jews in Israel. These are people who aren't religious or are only moderately religious, but believe the traditions and ethics of traditional Judaism should be culturally normative. By moderately religious, I mean something analogous to Christians who go to church on Christmas and Easter or when someone dies or gets married.

    That also effects fertility rates. For secular Jews it's 2.1, for traditional Jews it's 2.6, for moderately religious traditional Jews it's 3.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  3. #3623

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    I don't know how accurate this is, and it's from 14 years ago.

    Jews and the Jewish Birthrate

    But this brings us to the one major exception to the general rule ― namely, Orthodox Jews. Not only do the Orthodox suffer many fewer losses from intermarriage, but their fertility rate is far above the Jewish norm. As against the overall average of 1.86 children per Jewish woman, an informed estimate gives figures ranging upward from 3.3 children in "modern Orthodox" families to 6.6 in Haredi or "ultra-Orthodox" families to a whopping 7.9 in families of Hasidim. These numbers are, of course, difficult to pin down definitively, but anecdotal evidence is compelling. In a single year, according to a nurse at one hospital in the Lakewood, New Jersey area serving a right-wing Orthodox population, 1,700 babies were born to 5,500 local families, yielding a rate of 358 births per thousand women. (The overall American rate is 65 births per thousand women.)
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  4. #3624

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    My memory must be mixing data, but yeah Haredi have 7.1, Mormons something like 3.4 and Amish have something like 6-7.
    Afaik for Israel that means Haredi will be half of the population by 2050, which is not exactly deprived of consequences.

    Hungary is implementing measures similar to that of Russia to increase rates, we'll see how that works out.

  5. #3625

    Default Latest anti-Trump smear backfires spectacularly. Accuser calls rape sexy, CNN ends interview

    Alright, a great day for all of us that are fed up with the stupidity, dishonesty and lies of the corporate media. I get another field day hammering these despicable cretins, who are a cancer for our society.

    Their hate-filled agenda against the President this time leads them straight into the wall and exposes their side's women as people who fantasize about being raped. I think this is possibly because their men tend to be beta males hence their women require other forms of sexual satisfaction, sometimes by importing more masculine third world migrants, or simply by having sex with superior Trump supporters.
    Indeed the same channel promoted cuckoldry as a healthy lifestyle for its viewers.




    The passage:

    Cooper asked Carroll, "you don't feel like a victim?" after she suggested that was the case, and things went downhill fast.

    The seemingly unstable Carroll replied, "I was not flung to the floor."
    Cooper retorted, "I think most people think of rape as a violent assault..."
    To which Carrol replied, stunning the CNN anchor, "I think most people think of rape as being sexy..."
    Cooper stuttered, stumbled, and quickly cut the interview straight to a commercial break, but not before Carroll could add "...think of the fantasies."


    Will they ever learn?
    Here the best way to get away with it would be to simply declare Carroll mentally ill, but unfortunately that would end up demolishing the credibility of accusations against Trump and CNN needs that to lie to its viewers, make them angry and cash in the ratings.

    So, let's discuss the plausible scenarios:
    -the woman is mentally ill/Trump accusers really aren't credible;
    -she's perfectly sane, it's normal for women with certain political beliefs to fantasize about being raped;

    Which one is it?


    Merged with the Discussion and Debate thread, as the OP lacked a sufficient basis for discussion. ~Abdülmecid I
    Last edited by Abdülmecid I; June 25, 2019 at 05:01 AM. Reason: Clarification added.

  6. #3626
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    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    “The penetration, no matter how slight, of the vagina or anus with any body part or object, or oral penetration by a sex organ of another person, without the consent of the victim.”
    The closest to 'official' I can draw for the term 'rape' as per a US government site.

    There's two senses that the term 'rape' applies to, the technical definition above that I can gurantee that most people with 'rape fantasies' will not find so appetizing in practice unless they 'come to like it' (certainly not something I'd bank on) that doesn't necessarily include but does not exclude the act being sexy for the people involved, and the 'rape fantasy', where rape is indeed sexualized and generally interpreted through the more primal form of a domineering person taking someone for themselves. Yes, there's women who find that arousing.

    CNN found a case where someone went into the latter definition, and the host was not comfortable going down that path. I see superficial to no evidence that the video linked and the scenario posed has anything to do with the credibility of people accusing Donald Trump of sexual assault, or of her being considered mentally ill. For the former this means nothing, for the latter I dispute the idea that it has much to do with political beliefs and assert that it has everything to do with how a person approaches sex despite their beliefs, since people on either side are not homogeneous clones of their beliefs, outlook and behavior, despite the memes. Perhaps what you assert is indeed a trend in the left wing, but I think it's unsupported bollocks to assume it is standard that left wing women are overwhelmingly or even majority hold the kind of fantasies you're making a case for.

  7. #3627
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    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    She was raped but not sexually... How does that make any sense?
    She actually looks mentally insane in my opinion. Look at her eyes. Same as that Blasey Ford woman... who also had a history of mental instability.

    "Famous general without peer in any age, most superior in valor and inspired by the Way of Heaven; since the provinces are now subject to your will it is certain that you will increasingly mount in victory." - Ōgimachi-tennō

  8. #3628

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    I wonder how much Cooper reamed his producer(s) after that.

  9. #3629

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    German leftists trying to destabilize Italy BTFO.
    ECHR rules their ''NGOs'' aka no borders activists can't dump illegal immigrants at will in Italy after taking them from Lybia, no matter how many lies they say.
    http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2019...acd55f218.html

    Similar sentence to one in January, same fraudolent NGO ''Sea Watch''.

    Trial for another German activist starting soon, she risks 20 years. Justice will be served.

  10. #3630

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    Video about Assad's use of rape in the civil war.

    We'll get him next time. Hopefully soon.

    https://twitter.com/renaisssancian/s...79867706138624
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  11. #3631

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    https://spectator.org/the-existentia...ocratic-texas/
    ''Arguing over Biden’s numbers also threatens to obscure the bigger picture. Reagan won Texas by 27 points. Bush Jr. defeated Gore by over 20 points, and Romney beat Obama by 16. Trump, running against a historically weak candidate like Clinton, won by fewer than 10. Recent statewide contests, such as Beto O’Rourke’s run against Senator Ted Cruz in 2018, suggest that a significant infusion of Democratic resources may be enough to reduce the margin to as little as two points. The dramatic erosion of the GOP’s advantage must be treated as an existential threat regardless of the specifics of any individual election. '''

    The more the state becomes Hispanic, the more the Republican lead shrinks. Texas is gone and so is America. Trump was the last chance and he wasted it.

  12. #3632

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    It doesn't have anything to do with Hispanics or liberals, it's just no one likes Trump. He's losing independents by 22 points and women by 15, while just last year Abbott won independents by 15 points and women by 3. This guy will destroy the GOP if he's not kicked out of the White House next year.
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  13. #3633

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    Sorry but just no. That's ridiculous. The shrinkage of 7 points from Reagan to Bush Jr. has nothing to do with Trump. Just like Bush Jr to Romney shrinking another 4 points has nothing to do with it.
    You can't tell me: ''it's just Trump that's unpopular'' when there is a clear downward pattern and the lead was shrinking fast before he even entered politics. How do you explain that?

    We went through this before anyway. California has a rapid demographic change, goes from red to deep blue. You tell me ''it's not demographics''. Here, same voting pattern and same demographic pattern, both happened long before Trump and you tell me ''it's Trump's fault''.

    Ok.


    You can't play empire if you lose your home to the enemy within. You can kick out Trump because at this point he's worthless. You know who's worse than worthless? GOP politicians that went with Koch immigration policies. Losers like McCain and Romney. You can go with them and there will be never another Republican president again. That's guaranteed.
    Last edited by Basil II the B.S; June 26, 2019 at 10:16 AM.

  14. #3634

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    We have this discussion basically every week, Basil.

    Despite high expectations for 2016, no surge in Texas Hispanic voter turnout | The Texas Tribune

    Facts:

    1,890,000 Hispanics voted in 2012; Romney won the state by 16 points.

    1,938,000 Hispanics voted in 2016; Trump won by 7 points. That's 9 points lower.

    Do you really think 50,000 people account for a 9-point drop in the GOP share of the vote?

    And Trump is currently polling 9 points lower than in 2016. Where is the evidence that the 2020 electorate will be 9 points more Hispanic than in 2016? That's absurd. The Hispanic turnout rate barely increases by 1 or 2 points every presidential election.

    Fact is, if Trump is losing or barely winning Texas, it's not because of Hispanics. It's because he's completely toxic to the general population, especially independents (-22), women (-15) and young people (-29).
    Last edited by Prodromos; June 26, 2019 at 11:01 AM.
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  15. #3635

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    Why do you refuse to acknowledge that from Reagan to Romney Republicans lost 11 points in Texas? How do you explain that?

  16. #3636
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    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    News in murder of Walter Lübcke:

    The suspect Stephen E. confessed, he murdered Lübcke because of his pro migrant speech 2015:

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    The suspect in the killing of local German CDU politician Walter Lübcke has confessed. Stephan E. is believed to have far-right sympathies, though he also said he acted alone and was not part of a network.

    Suspect Stephan E. has admitted to the killing of conservative politician Walter Lübcke, Federal Prosecutor General Peter Frank told members of Germany's parliament on Wednesday morning.
    Head of a regional government in the city of Kassel, Lübcke was found dead outside his home with a gunshot wound to the head on June 2. The 65-year-old was a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
    Stephan E. said he acted alone, according to Bundestag member Ulla Jelpke. She spoke to DW after a special hearing of the parliamentary interior affairs committee, at which the heads of various security forces and Interior Minister Horst Seehofer briefed Bundestag members.
    But despite Stephan E.'s claims, Frank said investigations into possible accomplices are ongoing. Stephan E. is believed to have had connections with a number of far-right organizations, including the militant Combat 18, the National Democratic Party (NPD), and the neo-Nazi group the Autonome Nationalisten (Autonomous Nationalists).
    "Of course we're assuming he wants to cover others," Jelpke, of the socialist Left party, told DW. "As you can imagine, investigations are taking place." Last week, the taz newspaper reported that a neighbor told police he had seen two cars speeding from the scene of the crime.
    Irene Mihalic, who represented the Green party on the committee, told reporters after the hearing that the authorities now had to "turn over every stone" to investigate the killing, and uncover any potential network out of which the suspect acted.


    Lübcke: A far-right target



    News magazine Der Spiegel reported that Stephan E. told police the killing was triggered by remarks made by Lübcke during a townhall meeting in October 2015, on the creation of a new refugee reception center.

    Facing hecklers during the meeting, Lübcke said: "It is worth living in our country. Here you must stand up for values, and whoever doesn't stand up for these values can leave this country any time if they don't agree with them." Some media reports also said Stephan E. attended the meeting himself, but that has not been confirmed.
    A video of Lübcke's remarks quickly spread in far-right circles, and was referred to in speeches at anti-immigration PEGIDA demos in 2015 and 2016. Lübcke subsequently received a number of death threats, and during the hearing Frank described Lübcke as a "provocative figure" for the far right.

    Read more
    : Opinion: German politician's murder is an attack on democracy


    DNA evidence and confession
    In the weeks following Lübcke's killing, authorities concluded that it was motivated by right-wing extremism and arrested Stephan E. after finding DNA evidence linking him to the scene.
    Frank also told the committee that the 45-year-old's flat had been searched again, and more evidence was collected, though the murder weapon, believed to be a 9 mm handgun, has not yet been found.
    Since his arrest over a week ago, various news outlets have uncovered evidence of Stephan E.'s connections to the neo-Nazi scene and his own far-right sympathies. Photos have surfaced of him with members of the militant neo-Nazi group Combat 18, taken in March, though the identification has since been cast into doubt by Spiegel TV.
    Stephan E. has previously been convicted for violent attacks on migrants and left-wing sympathizers. These included the stabbing of a migrant in 1992, and the attempted pipe bombing of a refugee shelter in Hesse in 1993. He was also involved in a neo-Nazi attack on a trade union demo in 2009.
    At Wednesday's hearing, Thomas Haldenwang, head of Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the BfV, said Stephen E. had not appeared on the agency's watchlist in the past decade.


    Terror network and NSU connections
    Jelpke was critical of the BfV, saying it was inexplicable that the agency, which tracks extremists, had had no active file on the suspect. "It couldn't even be confirmed whether [the agency's] office in Hesse had a file," she said. "[Haldenwang] didn't know if there was a file ... Stephan E. appears to have gone out of sight, out of mind, so to speak."
    "I get the impression they're trying to investigate with some urgency, but at the same time they're hitting their own boundaries, because for years they didn't acknowledge the phenomenon of terrorism in far-right extremism," she added. "And they've admitted that now, more or less."
    Jelpke and Mihalic also called on authorities to investigate any possible connection to the National Socialist Underground (NSU) murders. The neo-Nazi cell, uncovered in 2011, killed the last of its nine victims of migrant background, Halit Yozgat, in an internet cafe in Kassel in 2006 — also, as in Lübcke's case, with a close-range shot to the head.
    One of the initial suspects in Yozgat's murder was Andreas Temme, an agent of the state intelligence agency in Hesse, who was present in the internet cafe at the time of the killing. As Jelpke pointed out, the state intelligence agency in Hesse answered to Lübcke's office.
    "If Stephan E. was active at a time when the NSU was murdering people, there must be further connections, which will be brought to light now," said Mihalic. "Maybe the story of the NSU will have to be written again."
    Interior Minister Seehofer, who expressed his shock at Lübcke's killing, promised that the murder would be investigated fully. He added that the ministry would assess whether to ban Combat 18.
    Hundreds of people gathered in Lübcke's home town of Wolfhagen on Saturday for a vigil honoring his life. Thousands of people also joined protests against right-wing violence in Kassel and other German cities over the weekend.

    https://www.dw.com/en/suspect-in-ger...ses/a-49357904
    Cause tomorrow is a brand-new day
    And tomorrow you'll be on your way
    Don't give a damn about what other people say
    Because tomorrow is a brand-new day


  17. #3637

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Basil II the B.S View Post
    Why do you refuse to acknowledge that from Reagan to Romney Republicans lost 11 points in Texas? How do you explain that?
    1984 was a very different time. Reagan won almost every single state. He won Vermont (a traditional Republican stronghold) by 18 points, while nowadays Democrats win the state by 25-36 points. Vermont is 94% white, so its slide toward the Democratic party doesn't have anything to do with minorities.

    Likewise in Texas, if Democrats are winning an increasing share of the vote, it's not because of Hispanics (at least not primarily), it's more due to white people, especially centrists. For example, last year's Senate race:

    Hispanics represent the (elusive) upside for Democrats, but it’s a shift in white voters that is making the biggest difference.

    So how did Mr. O’Rourke fare so well? He did it through old-fashioned persuasion, by winning voters who had voted for Republicans and for minor-party candidates.

    The results themselves make it clear that he won a lot of voters who supported Republicans in other races. He ran three points ahead of the overall Democratic state vote for the U.S. House in 2018 (adjusted for uncontested races), and ahead of every down-ballot Democrat running statewide.

    Mr. O’Rourke’s personal appeal was probably a factor, and there’s no guarantee a different Democrat can replicate it. His strong favorability rating (plus-10 in the exit polls, 52 percent to 42 percent) is consistent with that possibility, though he might have also had the benefit of a relatively unpopular incumbent in Mr. Cruz. Only 50 percent of voters had a favorable impression of Mr. Cruz in the exit polls (48 percent had an unfavorable one).

    But Mr. O’Rourke’s personal appeal is not the whole story. After all, many Democrats running for the U.S. House or other statewide offices posted noteworthy performances.

    The tide lifting all Democratic boats in Texas was an anti-Trump rebellion.

    Over all, President Trump’s approval rating was at 49 percent in the exit poll and 50 percent in the large AP/Fox Votecast poll. This is consistent with a variety of other survey data, including a recent Quinnipiac poll that put the president’s approval rating at minus-3 among registered voters in the state, 47-50. Gallup, measuring the much more diverse pool of Texan adults, put the president’s approval rating at just 41 percent in 2018. ...

    Mr. O’Rourke’s strong showing had essentially nothing to do with the initial vision of a Blue Texas powered by mobilizing the state’s growing Hispanic population. The Texas electorate was only two points more Hispanic in 2018 than it was in 2012, but President Obama lost the state by 16 points in 2012, compared with Mr. O’Rourke’s 2.6-point loss.

    At the same time, Mr. O’Rourke fared worse than Mr. Obama or Hillary Clinton in many of the state’s heavily Hispanic areas, particularly in more conservative South Texas. This could reflect Mr. Cruz’s relative strength among Hispanic voters compared with a typical Republican.

    Instead, Mr. O’Rourke’s improvement came almost exclusively from white voters, and particularly college-educated white voters. Whites probably gave him around 33 percent of their votes, up from a mere 22 percent for Mr. Obama in 2012.
    Last edited by Prodromos; June 26, 2019 at 12:42 PM.
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  18. #3638

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    So, let's assume you are correct, do you really think that Neocon foreign policy is somehow less toxic than Trump?

  19. #3639

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    I doubt that the people who decide US elections (swing voters) care much about foreign policy. I also get the impression that people in other countries (especially Europeans) typically take more of an interest in US foreign policy than the average American does. It's pretty easy to go your whole life in the US without ever thinking much about other countries. Of course there are some Americans who care a lot about foreign policy and take a serious interest in it, but they also tend to be fairly partisan voters, so they aren't really the people who decide elections.

    That's my impression anyway, and I have at least never noticed polls that would suggest otherwise
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  20. #3640

    Default Re: Discussion and Debate Community Thread

    Well I agree that's secondary, unless the President is stupid enough to make it primary. Eg, when Bush invaded Iraq, I'm fairly sure it spiked in terms of importance. So long that foreign policy doesn't affect people at home directly, nobody cares. Once too many body bags start arriving, then people get mad.

    What do you think would happen if Trump decided to invade Iran?

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