On US Isolationism, Expectations for the Post-US World Order

[Exarch]

An annual reminder that it wasn't actually Weimar hyperinflation that brought Hitler to power, but the devastating deflation that was incredibly destructive.

americans are already radicalised as we have now seen at least 70mln who will destroy the Republic just to keep their white supremacist cadres in power.

Biden might have a rather milquetoast Hindenburg type presidency but that will simply bandage over the raw wounds for 2024 where the republicans can expect to field utter fascists like tom cotton, christian fundamentalist evangelists like pompeo, or trump again.

With the exception of trump, the US may well embark on wars of conquest (greenland?) to keep the population occupied and away from temptations of Revolution.

This is patently false owing to the fact that the PRC has always had the strength to forcibly invade Taiwan. They haven't, because nobody wants to rule a pile of ashes.

I disagree, the PRC hasn't had the political desire to invade taiwan until Tsai came into power and started actively working against the PRC; previous Presidents wisely kept away from active secessionist and military cooperation against Chinese interests.

Seems having a childless, barren cat lady for President is like having that christian fundamentalist president from The Dead Zone, eager to make history as a parting call for her own sense of existential dread.

Secondly, US policymakers are waking up to the reality that war with china over taiwan is suicidal for US hegemony:
https://www.cato.org/publications/co...-defend-taiwan

As i said before, americans can't tell the difference between taiwanese and thai, let alone mainlanders. THere'll be revolution before a US instigated world war over taiwan.

There's a reason why both Iraq and Afghanistan like having US bases and troops on their soil. We aren't holding either country at gunpoint.

Iraq asked the US to leave and pompeo and trump flat out refused. American troops are in iraq against the will of the iraqi government and people.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...860_story.html

Afghans through the Taliban or Iran will ensure the US leaves sooner or later; just today there was an attack on Bagram and the taliban will come into power one way or the other.

US power is in decline, and will become all the more apparent in the decades to come.

[Ludicus]

As it stands right now, China is desperately trying to sweet talk everyone, rather than threatening anything.

I agree. China agressive's approach is only aimed at the coronavirus.
Ian Morris, the best-selling author of Why the West Rules—for Now (a masterpiece) writes -
Some key points- page 615,

" The West-to-East shift will surely be faster than any in earlier history, but the old western core corrently has a huge lead in per capita enrgy capture, technology, and military capacity, ans will almost certainly mantain its rule in some form through the forst half of this century. So long as the United States is strong enough to act as a globocop, major wars should be rare as they were when Britian was globocop in the nineteenth century. But beggining somewhere between 2025 and 2050, America's lead over the rest of the new world will narrow, as Britain's lead over the rest of the world did about 1870 (*) and the risk of a new world war will increase.

Page 616

(...) It is going to take great statemanship to preserve the peace in the bewildering twenty-first century.
(...) if renewable, clean energy sources replace hydrocarbons across the next fifty years, they should reduce (through certainly not eliminate) the risk of great powers coming to blows over resources ir being drawn into feuds in the arc of instabilty.

Page 621

(...) On the last page of his book Collapse the biologist and geographer Jared Diamond suggested that there are two forces that might save the world from disaster:archeologists ( who uncover the details of earlier societie's mistakes)and television ( which broadcast their findings). As an archeologist who watches a lot of television, I certainly agree, but I also want to add a third savior, history. ONly historians can explain the differences that divide humanity and how we can prevent them from destroyng the world us.

(*) personal note- see Modelsky, The long cycle theory.

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Finally, let me wish you all a merry Christmas and a happy New Year.

[swabian]

The West rules, because it has to. There is no survival anymore for the Western world since long, if it doesn't strive for dominance. If you want democracy to prevail (with all its flaws and weaknesses as well as its glory and COMPARATIVE freedom), you are a Westerner.

If you want to learn Chinese and if you are ready to submit to Chinese dominance, you are something else, but NOT a Westerner.

[Exarch]

The West rules, because it has to. There is no survival anymore for the Western world since long, if it doesn't strive for dominance. If you want democracy to prevail (with all its flaws and weaknesses as well as its glory and COMPARATIVE freedom), you are a Westerner.

If you want to learn Chinese and if you are ready to submit to Chinese dominance, you are something else, but NOT a Westerner.

What is this alt-right malarkey?

A Westerner is someone who comes from the West, sometimes conflated with a caucasoid of european background. A South Korea or Japanese for instance is not a Westerner but they are considered "honorary huwhites" by alt-right hentai aficionados. Not even Asians in the west are considered western enough since they are considered perpetual foreigners and only tolerated if they are outspoken supporters of the white anglo power structure.

Secondly, the Western world will still live even without white privilege and dominating the world, much as it did prior to 1800, like normal countries.

Look at Germany vs Australia; one country maintains an independent foreign policy whilst the other is a slavish member of the anglo white supremacist organisation of the Five Eyes. Naturally, China has targeted one with trade wars and sanctions whilst the other, it offers prime market and investment access.

And throughout the entire time that Australia is being kerb stomped by China, the United States is nowhere to be seen, and is even profiting from Austraian distress!

[swabian]

Of course, i can't get past your inane clownery...

I don't know why Australia succumbed to the crappy treaties offered to them by China. They probably fell for it because they are used to singing kumbaya with non-whites. Who knows. I think they just were all fruitbat drunk and just happy for the Chinese molestation of their embassy to end without too many dead kangaroos.

[Exarch]

Australia will break eventually, not even the natsec die hards who pushed for race war with China are going to be able to do much at a much reduced budget and funding.

Going back to the differecence between the two western nations, germany isn't as committed to white supremacy as australia is- australia lives and breathes white supremacy and requires a white anglo hegemon in order to survive.

In Germany, yes there are 'race realists' but they are impotent in german society, let me illustrate:



And she's a Miss Germany Finalist!

You can expect to see more white blonde aryan females looking to pair up with say, Asian men as China progresses and becomes stronger and more powerful. This is the natural effect of the post US world order. In response to this, we can also expect more incel instigated spasms of violence in white american society.

[swabian]

Yes, if that H2-blond chick turns 15, she might think differently. I've heard a lot of disadvantageous stuff coming from European girls about Asian men. I don't know. I guess you can find out by yourself.

[Exarch]

Yes, if that H2-blond chick turns 15, she might think differently. I've heard a lot of disadvantageous stuff coming from European girls about Asian men. I don't know. I guess you can find out by yourself.

LOL projection much?

The obsession over penis sizes for example is a wholly white anglo insecurity; you don't see this level of insecurity in Asia; in fact, this sort of psychological inadequacy is the reason for why the United States is in such decline today, be it from Trump's screaming for race war against china or american feelings of inadequacy over China's technological and scientific breakthroughs. Just this past week for eg, NASA begged the Chinese space admin. for access to the moon rocks from Chang'e 5.

Whichever way you cut it, the US is going to be mired in infighting and civil war conditions and civil war even, in the years to come.

Expectations from europeans are that Trumpism is here to stay and they'd better detach themselves from such inane stupidity:

Opinion: What now, America?

Donald Trump may be on his way out — but there will be no easy way back to political norms. It remains to be seen how the US will develop, writes Ines Pohl.


...Trump was no coincidence

Donald Trump's corrupt, nationalist and racist policies are no accident. It was borne out of the two-party political system in the US, which is in dire need of reform. This should serve as a wakeup call for anyone who believes democracies can be kept afloat by clinging to outdated structures and privileges. The opposite is true.
...
After all, as US demographics continue to change over the years, some white Americans will increasingly feel they are losing influence.

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-what-n...ica/a-56050640

[AqD]

Whichever way you cut it, the US is going to be mired in infighting and civil war conditions and civil war even, in the years to come.

Expectations from europeans are that Trumpism is here to stay and they'd better detach themselves from such inane stupidity:
Source: https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-what-n...ica/a-56050640

Trumpism is merely a trigger. Did you not notice that outside of China, the whole Internet business from infrastructures to social media are American? Also during both elections, social media was overly on one side though at least 30% or 40% supporting the other?

If you look at it from country's perspective, it is a monopoly of multiple key industries that are growing, not shrinking. And the power provided by their monopoly position is extremely dangerous even to their own people, who benefit nothing from such development.

the best thing it can do for us is to die

But of course, it'd be best the other two superpowers are neutralized together.

[Exarch]

Trumpism is merely a trigger. Did you not notice that outside of China, the whole Internet business from infrastructures to social media are American? Also during both elections, social media was overly on one side though at least 30% or 40% supporting the other?

True, the social media platforms outside of China are mainly American- a mistake which is currently being corrected given the EU's antitrust anti-google and anti-Facebook policies and agenda currently working their way through EU parliament. Facebook for instance had an outsized role in influencing elections and coups eg ukraine and QAnon in europe, so naturally the EU is going to address this, at the expense of US power and influence.

If you look at it from country's perspective, it is a monopoly of multiple key industries that are growing, not shrinking. And the power provided by their monopoly position is extremely dangerous even to their own people, who benefit nothing from such development.

the best thing it can do for us is to die

But of course, it'd be best the other two superpowers are neutralized together.

Europe already knows what happens when they compete against US firms, look up Alstom.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1196774.shtml

On that matter, why do you think Trump tried to steal TikTok when it became too popular, and why Facebook's Zuck wanted to ban it? It's obvious, the Anglos have lost the edge and can't compete against China.

For people who want to know what the post american future holds, better start learning Chinese:



EDIT:

China is projected to overtake the US economy by as soon as 2028:

China to leapfrog U.S. as world's biggest economy by 2028: think tank

Source :https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN29000C

[AqD]

For people who want to know what the post american future holds, better start learning Chinese:

China is projected to overtake the US economy by as soon as 2028:

Source :https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN29000C

Hopefully its broken political structure will end the growth soon. You're not seriously expecting such a government leap into developed status are you? Last time I checked, that guy on top was still publishing books and teaching ideas like Jesus reborn.

[Exarch]

Hopefully its broken political structure will end the growth soon. You're not seriously expecting such a government leap into developed status are you? Last time I checked, that guy on top was still publishing books and teaching ideas like Jesus reborn.

Why not? China is the only nation capable of leading us into a Star Trek future.

It is only the anglo led West which desperately needs China to "democratise" so as to shore up their own domestic power base, since their power rests on the fiction of only democracies being able to deliver on development and infrastructure. We can see already from COVID, from the governance and societal failures of the anglo led west that this is not the case.

When all people had to do was wear a mask and self isolate to flatten the curve, the people in the anglosphere went out and irresponsibly spat in each others' mouths.

When the anglo led governments were expected to lead, they covered up their failures and used the secret police to silence dissidents:



When local governments in China tried to cover up their failures, the Central Government indicted them and fired them. Thus far, no US Government official has been fired or indicted for the hundreds of thousands of americans dead from COVID.

And other countries, other nations aren't blind to this; they see that China is roaring back with a vengeance and that the US will be crippled by COVID for years to come.

[AqD]

Why not? China is the only nation capable of leading us into a Star Trek future.

It is only the anglo led West which desperately needs China to "democratise" so as to shore up their own domestic power base, since their power rests on the fiction of only democracies being able to deliver on development and infrastructure. We can see already from COVID, from the governance and societal failures of the anglo led west that this is not the case.

Three decades ago maybe? not so bright now.

That government has grown extremely incompetent, as shown by the interruption of succession plans and re-introduction of old commie programs. Their racial policies and international propaganda as a whole have failed miserably, and rather than transitioning to a pseudo democracy which could ensure their power and stability, they're moving further and further away.

How will the current leader, for instance, even be able to step down peacefully when he's old and weak?

When all people had to do was wear a mask and self isolate to flatten the curve, the people in the anglosphere went out and irresponsibly spat in each others' mouths.

Are you sure those who follow are actually being responsible, or maybe they're just institutionalized?

[Exarch]

Three decades ago maybe? not so bright now.

That government has grown extremely incompetent, as shown by the interruption of succession plans and re-introduction of old commie programs. Their racial policies and international propaganda as a whole have failed miserably, and rather than transitioning to a pseudo democracy which could ensure their power and stability, they're moving further and further away.

How will the current leader, for instance, even be able to step down peacefully when he's old and weak?

Ignorant post based on reading too much breitbart or OANN.

President Xi is not President for life, unlike the gerontocracy of the US. China removed term limits so Xi could continue serving during China's transition to become the world's largest economy and the US hellbent on regime change.

Secondly, why must China be the one to change when according to surveys, Chinese are much more satisfied with their government's performance compared to the anglo white supremcaist regime in the us?

Levels of government and public opinion
The survey team found that compared to public opinion patterns in the U.S., in China there was very high satisfaction with the central government. In 2016, the last year the survey was conducted, 95.5 percent of respondents were either “relatively satisfied” or “highly satisfied” with Beijing. In contrast to these findings, Gallup reported in January of this year that their latest polling on U.S. citizen satisfaction with the American federal government revealed only 38 percent of respondents were satisfied with the federal government.

Source: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/sto...-satisfaction/

Are you sure those who follow are actually being responsible, or maybe they're just institutionalized?

Ah yes, the QAnon fear that simply following basic health regulations is the equivalent of having government soldiers come into your house to rape your wife and eat your food.

See, this is why the US is in decline: the people have been much reduced in quality, where basic science is considered an attack on their self esteem. When citizens have such low confidence in their own sense of self, that they'll die on such a stupid hill, you know they've gone past peak Nero and headed straight to Dark Ages.

[Ludicus]

An interesting discussion,May 2020.
From Center of Independent Studies. Interview with John J. Mearsheimer,Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, and Kishore Mahbubani, to ask Has China Won?
Mearsheimer is the author of "The Great Delusion". In this book, Mearsheimer explains why a policy of liberal hegemony is doomed to fail. Mearsheimer is also author of the "Tragedy of Great Power Politics", which Foreign Affairs Magazine rated as one of the three most influential thesis of the cold post war era.
John J. Mearsheimer Receives the 2020 James Madison Award

The Future of the American Pacifier | Foreign Affairs

An important Pentagon planning document stated in 1992, "Our first objective is to prevent the reemergence of a new rival ... that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. ... Our strategy must now refocus on precluding the emergence of any potential future global competitor."

Excerpts,
Kishore- minute 5,

It is important to work with China instead of provoking China...can China win?.. clearly if you mean in terms of of can China become the world’s largest economy I can say confidently yes...if you mean China can step in and take over the role of the US and try and dominate the world, I dont think China wants... America fought a lot of unecessary wars in the middle east and elsewhere. This is something China is not interested in doing

Mearsheimer-minute 8,

I have very different views on these two questions... whether China can rise peacefully I think the answer is no. China is going to translate that economic might into military might and its going to try to dominate Asia the way the US dominates the western hemisphere.
Of course the US does not tolerate pure competitors, wants to remain the only hegemon in the world...there is a serious chance of war.
With the regard to the second question (economic dominant power) we are very early in this competition, so its hard to predict who’s ultimately going to prevail...If I had to bet I bet in the US.

---
Minute 11: an interesting conversation about about Covid, the world economic recession- and the politization of the COV-19 debate,
Kishore and Mearsheimer both agree that Trump’s administration was incompetent, feeding conspiracy theories. Mearsheimer adds that the US in this day and age oftentimes behaves in an inept way, and this is a good example of the US doing something that makes no sense. Something that its not its strategic interest.


Kishore- minute 34,

I agree that China will try to become the dominant power but without using military means. China as it it rising as a great power it hasn’t fought a major war in 40 years.

Kishore - minute 50,

My goal is to see wheter or not we can create the world were the fundamental interests of the US in taking care of the well being of 330 million people and the fundamental interest of China in taking care 1.4 billion people dores not not come to a clash and that they can actually live with each other and that I think is the key point of difference that I have with John Mearsheimer. John assumes that there has to be a clash.

What can we say, we the humble pawns in the chessboard of power and politics? If you want to live a peaceful life, let others live in peace.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Beijing has no intention of peaceful coexistence with her neighbors, and the export of her authoritarian model which accompanies her growing influence will not be halted except by resolute resistance from the US and allies. Fifty years of peace and deference has only created the very crisis facing the US and the world today. Through expansionism, ethnic cleansing, brutal repression, militaristic threats, state sanctioned espionage and theft in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and naked attempts to restrict and prevent freedom of navigation in adjacent waters by military means, the Politburo has made it clear peace is only possible through surrender to their designs. If war is inevitable, Beijing will have chosen that course for herself.

[Lord Thesaurian]

China has entered a particularly perilous period as a rising power: it has gained the capability to disrupt the existing order, but its window to act may be narrowing. The balance of power has been shifting in Beijing’s favor in important areas of U.S.-Chinese competition, such as the Taiwan Strait and the struggle over global telecommunications networks. Yet China is also facing a pronounced economic slowdown and a growing international backlash.

The good news for the United States is that over the long term, competition with China may prove more manageable than many pessimists believe. Americans may one day look back on China the way they now view the Soviet Union—as a dangerous rival whose evident strengths concealed stagnation and vulnerability. The bad news is that over the next five to ten years, the pace of Sino-American rivalry will be torrid, and the prospect of war frighteningly real, as Beijing becomes tempted to lunge for geopolitical gain. The United States still needs a long-term strategy for protracted competition. But first it needs a near-term strategy for navigating the danger zone.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...hort-and-sharp

Good read. I think the key factor addressing the issue here is communication. In order to avoid miscalculation, the US must make it absolutely clear to the Politburo that expansion by military force will not be tolerated, and that includes arming China’s neighbors. At the same time, working out a coherent and enforceable national security policy in tech and capital markets will be a much more difficult and longer term battle.

[Lord Thesaurian]

I was admittedly skeptical that Beckley’s Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower would add much to contemporary debates over whether the United States is in decline and China is poised to succeed it—because, while the author is a distinguished scholar of international relations, the sheer volume of analysis on those judgments would almost seem to preclude the possibility of original thinking. Most debates offer some variant of a familiar exchange: anti-declinists cite the durability of U.S. power and the history of declinist predictions that proved premature; declinists contend that the present confluence of domestic dysfunction and external challenges is uniquely challenging. Beckley’s book is doubly surprising against this backdrop: a concise but detailed provocation, it breaks methodological ground to offer a novel assessment of America’s position in world affairs. One hopes that it finds a high-level audience in both Washington and Beijing: the United States would be less likely to succumb to fatalism were it to understand more thoroughly its bases of power and China’s corresponding points of weakness; China, in turn, would be less likely to succumb to hubris.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature...er-china-52992

I’ve been reading this book since it is nearly the complete opposite of my views on the subject. It’s a reasonable overview with a thorough academic rationale. Its thesis is grounded primarily in a unique methodology the author also outlined in a separate publication:

Accounting for even a fraction of these production, welfare, and security costs substantially reduces the signiacance of China’s rise. As shown in ag- ure 5, if power is measured in terms of GDP or CINC, China already appears to be the most powerful country in the world; by contrast, if power is mea sured with my proxy for net resources or the UN or World Bank’s measures of net resources (or other measures of net stocks of economic and military re- sources not shown here), then China lags far behind the United States and looks set to do so for the foreseeable future.146

Clearly, a great deal hangs in the balance with regard to how scholars meas- ure power. The most important point to be made, therefore, is that the measurement of power needs to receive the same kind of sustained and rigor- ous study that has been given to the effects of power. Power is the central vari- able in the aeld of international politics, yet scholars still lack a sound means of measuring it. With so many policy decisions and academic theories relying on accurate assessments of relative power, it is imperative that scholars get those assessments right.

https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi...2/isec_a_00328

I’m only halfway through the book, and while it has its merits, I don’t think its sunny outlook measures up to reality. Beckley is correct in principle, regardless of whether or not his central analytical theory is perfectly applicable. The flaw in his assessment, I believe, is to neglect the fact perception creates reality. China’s inflated statistics, waste, fraud, corruption, slave labor, ethnic cleansing, concentration camps, forced organ harvesting, military expansionism, and vast, coordinated corporate espionage haven’t stemmed the flow of capital into the country, as the world more or less decides the US is no longer the horse to bet on. So long as that’s the case, China will remain “the bubble that never pops,” no matter how high its debt-to-GDP rises, and how many ghost cities SOEs have to crank out to fudge growth statistics and burn off wasted industrial production.

For instance, consider the giant “ you” the EU decided to send to the US as a holiday gift this week, with Merkel and Xi rushing to conclude a comprehensive investment agreement before Biden takes office, Merkel’s term winds down, and Germany rotates out of the EU presidency.

Negotiations had repeatedly stalled since they began in 2013. But after Biden won the U.S. presidential election, Chinese negotiators went into overdrive, offering various concessions on market access for European companies to help push the deal through before the end of the year. Among other things, the investment agreement promises that China will no longer force European companies to transfer their technology to local joint-venture partner companies.

The deal is a diplomatic victory for Beijing and a domestic one for Xi. In Washington, it will be seen as a snub to the incoming Biden administration, which last week urged the EU to wait.

"Before President Biden has even taken the oath of office, the well has been a bit poisoned in transatlantic relations," said Theresa Fallon, director of the Centre for Russia Europe Asia Studies, a think tank in Brussels.

"After four years of the Trump administration, which characterized the EU as 'worse than China,' there is a growing anti-American sentiment" among EU leadership, Fallon said, "meaning 'we don't want to do what the U.S. says.' "

https://www.npr.org/2020/12/30/95140...y-snubbing-u-s

Beyond rhetoric, the US must accept the reality Europe is too economically stagnant and politically unstable to present the united front against tyranny which the transatlantic alliance has maintained for decades. As the CAI proves, European leaders are willing to prop up their virus-battered, mercantilist trade bloc by any means necessary, and playing off both sides of the US-China rivalry is a logical solution.

Biden is living in the past, talking about forming a Cold-War style partnership against Beijing together with the EU. This year I was also briefly hopeful about that. Unfortunately, the latest reality check isn’t going to alter 80 years of conventional thinking in Washington, pinned on that hope. I’ve become increasingly convinced in recent years that US economic and security interests would be better served deepening ties with genuine allies in the Anglosphere, rather than trying to woo Continental leaders who have consistently and deliberately undermined US interests, even against their own.

The agreement – sound as it may seem – has exposed the EU, ravaged by the pandemic, as a weaker economic and geopolitical actor.

Had the EU waited for US President-elect Joe Biden to consolidate his administration first, the strength of transatlantic relations would have served as a counterweight to the emergence of transpacific ties, which China seems to want to dominate and control.

However, having signed the agreement, the EU must now pressure China to comply with ILO provisions. This might lead to an EU-China confrontation or dialogue over the treatment of Tibetans, Uygurs and other Muslim minorities.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion...opean-weakness

Throwing Washington’s economic and diplomatic weight behind Canzuk could make the long shot concept more viable, and help form a reliable US partner constituting the third largest economy and potential military superpower. Barring that, the US should be prepared to deepen ties and strategic cooperation. With Biden’s Cold War mindset towards the transatlantic alliance with the EU, I don’t see that happening, which is unfortunate given how crucial this early post-Brexit phase would be.

[Ludicus]

the US must accept the reality Europe is too economically stagnant and politically unstable to present the united front against tyranny which the transatlantic alliance has maintained for decades...

The US must accept the reality that the level of democracy in Europe is still firmly above that of the US, currently a flawed democracy, since 2017.

I’ve become increasingly convinced in recent years that US economic and security interests would be better served deepening ties with genuine allies in the Anglosphere

I wonder what that is supposed to mean, a "genuine ally".
In case you havent noticed, Australia is an independent country: Australia-European Union Free Trade Agreement fact sheet
What they say,

Australia and the European Union (EU) are natural partners, with a shared commitment to the rule of law, global norms and free and open markets. As articulated in the Foreign Policy White Paper, a strong EU is vital to Australian interests in protecting and promoting a rules-based international order.

On a side note, talking about political instability, judging by the fragile state of the UK union, the fragmentation of the UK is far more likely than the fragmentation of the EU.
---
For the EU, China is simultaneously -in different policy areas- a cooperation partner, a negotiation partner, an economic competitor and a systemic rival. On last 30 December, EU and China reach agreement in principle on investment.

Portugal's Presidency: Time to deliver a fair, green and digital ...

Economic and social recovery based on the engines of the climate and digital transitions is the first of the three fundamental priorities of the Presidency during its semester.
On its list of major tasks is also developing the European Union Social Pillar as a basis of trust that allows the EU to lead digital and climate transitions without leaving anyone behind. This will be the central topic of the Social Summit that will be held in Porto in May.
Reinforcing the strategic autonomy of a European Union open to the world by strengthening relationships with our transatlantic partners, both with the new American administration and with Latin America, with Africa, with the Indo-Pacific area, and with the neighbours in the east and in the south.
Portugal's Presidency will support the creation of a European Health Union, which strengthens the capacity to respond to public health crises

An important theme will be strengthening the EU’s link to India and will include a meeting with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a focus on cooperation between the EU and India in the development of AI and Data Sciences.There will be a meeting of European leaders with the African Union while trade agreements will be signed with Australia (read above) and New Zealand and Morocco.

To sum up, we are open to the world. The EU in the multilateral system - European Union External ...
(speech, Borrel)

(...) multilateralism is needed to guarantee protection of global public goods, against the risk of pure market-driven or national approaches...you were questioning which are the structural causes of this crisis. Well, clearly one is the emergence of a multipolar world. More and more players and less and less consensus among them...It is what is called multipolarity without multilateralism. Many players, less consensus. Several actors willing to be hegemonic, naturally they tend to disagree and they have the temptation to get free from multilateral disciplines and look for bilateral deals in which they have more leverage. That is why the United States is leaving the multilateralism approach and trying to do it alone, one by one. Because then its power is bigger.

(...)This deep crisis is reflected in many ways. First, blocking multilateral decisions in very important fora. Second, unilateral withdrawal from institutions and agreements – such as the Americans withdrawing from the Paris Accord, the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action], the Open Skies Agreement, and the World Health Organisation.

Third, refusing to accept international arbitration - China and the South China Sea or Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean. Forth, practicing selective multilateralism - China defends the World Trade Organization, but on human rights it seeks on the contrary to change the body language of United Nations institutions. And fifth, to go to bilateralism when it is good for them - China and American trade agreement poses a problem for Europeans, because it excludes us from the benefits of the agreement.

There is a second structural source of a retreat from multilateralism is the return of empires. The return of the political sovereignism advocated by a growing number of states – the United States, but also China, Russia and Turkey. They want to revise the multilateral system in one way or another but retreating from the liberal vision of the world as it developed after the Second World War. This is the expression of populism and it is clear that all populist leaders are anti multilateralists.

(...) There are three competing visions in the world today: an American vision that is basically in favour of regulation by the market, so it will push for international regulation to be as light as possible – ‘Let the market do it.’ A Chinese vision that wants regulation by the State. China will push for global regulation where everyone remains in control at home, and we know how dangerous it can be. And, finally, a European vision that wants data to be protected for the benefit of citizens in Europe and around the world. This brings us to a battle of standards that has only just begun. Multilateralism is a good instrument to protect our humanist and liberal vision. We, Europeans, we have been norm setters because we have been technological leaders. If we lose the leadership of technologies, we will not be able to continue being the norm setters.

We, Europeans, we have to work in two tracks. We have to develop our leadership, developing new partnerships and at the same time to increase our strategic autonomy. To project the most effective role in the world we need to promote multilateralism and at the same time to strengthen our strategic autonomy. These are the two sides of the same coin. We have to be in a cooperative approach, the best guarantee for a peaceful and safe future for all, but at the same time we have to assess a good understanding of what is our interest, which does not always coincide with the US’ interest. We share with them the same political system, the same economic system, but in the big confrontation that is coming between the US and China we have to look for our own way.

As simple as that.

[Lord Thesaurian]

The US must accept the reality that the level of democracy in Europe is still firmly above that of the US, currently a flawed democracy, since 2017.

An odd and subjective tangent juxtaposed to the rationalization of Germany’s push, as de facto leader of the EU, to cozy up to and bolster an expansionist totalitarian state in order to save her pet project from economic stagnation amid political fragmentation.