Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[StarDreamer]

In September 2017, Finnish power company Fortum announced it would buy E.ON's remaining 47% stake in Uniper and make a bid for the other 53% held by other shareholders, valuing Uniper at €8 billion.
In July 2022, the German government and Fortum agreed to bailout Uniper a €15 billion rescue deal after being severely affected by reduced supplies and high prices following the energy standoff with Russia.^[21] Germany agreed to pay €267 million for a stake in the ownership of Uniper, while also offering the firm up to €7.7 billion in financing.^[22] Under the bailout, a record in German corporate history, the government will take a 30% stake in Uniper, reducing the ownership of Fortum to 56%.^[23]
Finland's Minister of Ownership Steering Tytti Tuppurainen stated that Finland would not accept the nationalisation of Uniper without a level of compensation being paid.^[25] The German government's intention to nationalize the company was formalized the next day.^[26] Germany will spend $8 billion to acquire a 99% stake in the company.^[27] Uniper published a €40b loss for the first 3 quarters of 2022.[2]

So Fortum paid 8 billion in 2017 + 7 Billion (eventually) in July 2022 and got 7,97 Billions in July 2022 + 8 Billion € at the end of 22.

And we haven't even talk about the annual revenue as stakehholder.

Yeah a big loss for poor poor Fins.

Your article is quite skewed. Fortum had to loan billions of euros to Uniper already before the crisis hit peak, this was made worse when the German goverment refused it the ability to declare force majoure during the crisis. This lead to Uniper essentially being used as a way to subsidize gas to German purchasers and bringing the company to insolvency. Included in this "purchase price" is the repayment of this loan. Essentially in the end the whole thing lead to Fortum losing billions for their whole Uniper adventure. Also the first round of financing wasn't money to Fortum, but to Uniper to keep it from bankruptcy and causing a lack of gas to those it supplied. So that was Germany subsidizing the consumers of Uniper's gas, not paying money to Fortum.

Poor, poor Germs subsidizing the gas to their industry and population.

[Peresvet]

With the beginning of the war in February in both countries, both in Russia and in Ukraine, the states of these countries completely forgot about the human right to life and non-participation in hostilities. The military catch people on the streets during mobilization, grab and drag them to their deaths in the trenches. It seems to me that this is the worst thing in this war, that many people who are peaceful are not left with a choice if they do not want to fight. Therefore, Western countries should undoubtedly give asylum to those who are not ready to die for the interests of the rulers and the preservation of their power. And it doesn't matter who gives whom and how many tanks or drones, all this just drags out the process of war and death. It is important to enable people to save themselves from war.

[conon394]

^Imo, that's pretty dangerous. I wonder if Germany has its own foreign policy on this, or now is pretty much (implicitly, if you prefer) doing as US would want.

Dangerous how? To whom? Russian soldiers perhaps? Russia is not in a position to threaten Germany with anything but harsh language.

[Ludicus]

For those who don’t know,
Bundestag fails to vote for supply of Leopard tanks to Ukraine

The majority of German Bundestag factions opposed the CDU/CSU conservatives' proposal to put the issue of providing Ukraine with Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 battle tanks to a vote.

From the Guardian, fresh news,

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock’s comment on Sunday, that her country would not “stand in the way” of Poland sending Leopard tanks to Ukraine, is causing some confusion in Berlin. Baerbock did not repeat her comment when pressed on the matter on Monday morning.

Polish PM remains defiant. Guardian,

Poland's PM restates willingness to re-export tanks without German permission. Morawiecki described Germany’s attitude as unacceptable. “I try to weigh my words but I’ll say it bluntly: Ukraine and Europe will win this war – with or without Germany,

To put an end once and for all to the myth of NATO as a purely defensive organization, all that is needed is to send Polish troops into Ukrainian territory. If the goal is an independent Ukraine, one must also ask what a European order that includes Russia should look like. Russia will not simply disappear from the map.

[conon394]

one must also ask what a European order that includes Russia should look like. Russia will not simply disappear from the map.

An order with a lot more corruption, wealth inequality and one that approves of Russian imperialism - OK Ludicus I guess if that floats your boat.

If the goal is an independent Ukraine

Last I checked Ukraine is independent. I did not realize that was a question for Russia to arbitrarily decided on.

to put an end once and for all to the myth of NATO as a purely defensive organization

Did NATO invade the Ukraine or Russia or Belarus - um I missed that.

[Peresvet]

To put an end once and for all to the myth of NATO as a purely defensive organization, all that is needed is to send Polish troops into Ukrainian territory. If the goal is an independent Ukraine, one must also ask what a European order that includes Russia should look like. Russia will not simply disappear from the map.

Do you think that Ukraine does not defend itself? NATO is afraid to enter the war and will never enter into it, it is even afraid to fully help. Ukraine is defending itself mainly with its own forces and the forces of those tanks that it took from the Russian army.

[conon394]

Do you think that Ukraine does not defend itself?

You going off message man. Putin says Ukraine is not really a country. Putin's feeling matter. Ergo Ukraine does not have the right to defend itself.

[Kyriakos]

(Reminds me of the intro to a Ionesco play, where two critics of Ionesco are at some point arguing between themselves, so the third critic tells them to not do that in front of him, because it lessens their authority as critics of him )
Happens in all such systems, inevitably.

[Septentrionalis]

It seems to me that this is the worst thing in this war, that many people who are peaceful are not left with a choice if they do not want to fight. Therefore, Western countries should undoubtedly give asylum to those who are not ready to die for the interests of the rulers and the preservation of their power.

While in principle I would agree with you, the unfortunate fact is that a growing Russian minority regardless of the reasons they moved west is a huge risk to a western nation bordering Russia. The Russian state, as it is managed now, is dead set to "protect" ethnic Russians outside its borders, regardless of those Russians' own opinion on whether they need protection. And we cannot vet out who really support Putin's regime and who do not.

In Finland, a large poll (1,600 ethnic Russian individuals) was conducted, and only 64 % of those polled opposed the war. There have been pro-war demonstrations by Russians living in Finland, albeit quite small. Ukrainian refugees in Finland complained that pro-Putin Russians were housed in the same refugee centers with them. Allegedly, they were not opposed to the war but had fled just to escape being sent to the front themselves. They have since been separated into different facilities.

I do not disagree with you on an individual person's right to avoid being sent into an unjust war, and I can tell you that I would not agree to fight in one either. But sadly things have gone so far as to ethic Russians being a threat to their host nations just by being there because of the actions of the present dictatorship. I really wish that the future Russia will be run by people like you, but it looks like you are facing a daunting task in turning it all around .

But not all hope is lost. There may be a time when we exchange ideas, products, and students in our universities instead of threats and artillery fire. In expectation of that, please try to deal with our anti-Russian sentiments without turning against the west. We really are just scared and appalled at the violence, because we have lived for so long under the impression that the age of destructive invasions was over when the likes of Hitler were defeated and we built mechanisms for mutual dependence and diplomacy in Europe.

[Peresvet]

While in principle I would agree with you, the unfortunate fact is that a growing Russian minority regardless of the reasons they moved west is a huge risk to a western nation bordering Russia. The Russian state, as it is managed now, is dead set to "protect" ethnic Russians outside its borders, regardless of those Russians' own opinion on whether they need protection. And we cannot vet out who really support Putin's regime and who do not.

In Finland, a large poll (1,600 ethnic Russian individuals) was conducted, and only 64 % of those polled opposed the war. There have been pro-war demonstrations by Russians living in Finland, albeit quite small. Ukrainian refugees in Finland complained that pro-Putin Russians were housed in the same refugee centers with them. Allegedly, they were not opposed to the war but had fled just to escape being sent to the front themselves. They have since been separated into different facilities.

I do not disagree with you on an individual person's right to avoid being sent into an unjust war, and I can tell you that I would not agree to fight in one either. But sadly things have gone so far as to ethic Russians being a threat to their host nations just by being there because of the actions of the present dictatorship. I really wish that the future Russia will be run by people like you, but it looks like you are facing a daunting task in turning it all around .

But not all hope is lost. There may be a time when we exchange ideas, products, and students in our universities instead of threats and artillery fire. In expectation of that, please try to deal with our anti-Russian sentiments without turning against the west. We really are just scared and appalled at the violence, because we have lived for so long under the impression that the age of destructive invasions was over when the likes of Hitler were defeated and we built mechanisms for mutual dependence and diplomacy in Europe.

Thank you for your opinion, I support you and share your concerns about russian migrants. Although I believe that putin only attacks countries that are weaker than Russia and, in his opinion, cannot resist his military machine. Finland now can not be afraid, since your country is already in NATO and putin does not dare to attack. Sooner or later, the power in Russia will change, we, pro-European activists, I hope, will take power into our own hands and we will get the opportunity to change relations with Europe for the better. By the way, I love Finland and the Finnish people very much, for your hard work, pride and development of your country. As well as the beauty of the nature of the Finnish north and forests.



This video is from Soledar, this is the landscape, as if, after a nuclear strike, maniacs-putinists destroy the city
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_urknEyhfJo

[Mithradates]

Why the world needs Ukrainian victory
Fifteen reasons

by Timothy Snyder

Why does the world need a Ukrainian victory?

1. To halt atrocity. Russia's occupation is genocidal. Wherever the Ukrainians recover territory, they save lives, and re-establish the principle that people have a right not to be tortured, deported, and murdered.

2. To preserve the international legal order. Its basis is that one country may not invade another and annex its territory, as Russia seeks to do. Russia's war of aggression is obviously illegal, but the legal order does not defend itself.

3. To end an era of empire. This could be the last war fought on the colonial logic that another state and people do not exist. But this turning point is reached only if Russia loses.

4. To defend the peace project of the European Union. Russia's war is not directed only against Ukraine, but against the larger idea that European states can peacefully cooperate. If empire prevails, integration fails.

5. To give the rule of law a chance in Russia. So long as Russia fights imperial wars, it is trapped in repressive domestic politics. Coming generations of Russians could live better and freer lives, but only if Russia loses this war.

6. To weaken the prestige of tyrants. In this century, the trend has been towards authoritarianism, with Putinism as a force and a model. Its defeat by a democracy reverses that trend. Fascism is about force, and is discredited by defeat.

7. To remind us that democracy is the better system. Ukrainians have internalized the idea that they choose their own leaders. In taking risks to protect their democracy, they remind us that we all must act to protect ours.

8. To lift the threat of major war in Europe. For decades, a confrontation with the USSR and then Russia was the scenario for regional war. A Ukrainian victory removes this scenario by making another Russian offensive implausible.

9. To lift the threat of major war in Asia. In recent years, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has been the leading scenario for a global war. A Ukrainian victory teaches Beijing that such an offensive operation is costly and likely to fail.

10. To prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons. Russia, a nuclear power, then invaded. If Ukraine loses, countries that can build nuclear weapons will feel that they need to do so to protect themselves.

11. To reduce the risk of nuclear war. A Ukrainian victory makes two major war scenarios involving nuclear powers less likely, and works against nuclear proliferation generally. Nothing would reduce the risk of nuclear war more than Ukrainian victory.

12. To head off future resource wars. Aside from being a consistent perpetrator of war crimes, Russia's Wagner group seizes mineral resources by violence wherever it can. This is why it is fighting in Bakhmut.

13. To guarantee food supplies and prevent future starvation. Ukraine feeds much of the world. Russia threatens to use that food as a weapon. As one Russian propagandist put it, "starvation is our only hope."

14. To accelerate the shift from fossil fuels. Putin shows the threat that hydrocarbon oligarchy poses to the future. His weaponization of energy supplies has accelerated the turn towards renewables. This will continue, if Russia loses.

15. To affirm the value of freedom. Even as they have every reason to define freedom as against something -- Russian occupation --, Ukrainians remind us that freedom is actually for something, the right to be the people they wish to be, in a future they can help shape.


...This is a once-in-lifetime conjuncture, not to be wasted. The Ukrainians have given us a chance to turn this century around, a chance for freedom and security that we could not have achieved by our own efforts, no matter who we happen to be. All we have to do is help them win.

Oh, and by the way, there is a Russian offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region, its just not top news because, well...

Another absolutely insane Russian banzai attack.

This time not around Bakhmut but somewhere in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the south. Russian troops without any armor support running in totally open field. For Ukrainian infantry and snipers just target practice.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Coughdrop addict]

Oh, and by the way, there is a Russian offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region, its just not top news because, well...

Another absolutely insane Russian banzai attack.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

You can tell how bad it went because only a few days ago pro-Putin social media was excitedly telling everyone about how this offensive would be the end of Ukraine, but since then they've been awfully quiet about it.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Meanwhile the polnish PIS government has sent a request to the German department of Defense to export 14 Leopard II into Ukraine. It will high likely be granted.

Pistorius in an interview today:

Germany has still not made a decision to allow countries operating its Leopard 2 main battle tanks to transfer them to Kyiv, but they can train Ukrainian tank crews, Berlin’s new defense minister, Boris Pistorius, said on Tuesday, January 24. In a press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Pistorius said: "There is no new information here. The situation has not changed. We are preparing our decision, which will come very soon…We are encouraging our partners if they want to, and if they have the possibility, to start training [Ukrainians] on these Leopard vehicles if they wish to do so. We are not stopping anyone. “We are looking into the matter, what the current status is, regarding our Leopard tanks…We need to look at the potential we have, that industry has, the stocks that they have, and of course, compatibility [among the vehicles],” he said. Germany has come under fire from countries like Poland for not allowing Leopard 2 operators to give their tanks to Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said recently that Poland would consider transferring the tanks without Germany’s assent. Pistorius, who was appointed defense minister to take over from Christine Lambrecht on January 19, recently indicated that he could visit Ukraine in the coming weeks.

Countries With Germany’s Leopard Tanks Can Train Ukrainian Tank Crews, Defense Minister Says | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site

Edit:

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said at a press conference: "We will apply to the European Union for a refund. It will be another goodwill test."

I guess the EU will pay the refund and probably the maintenance of the tanks.

[conon394]

Another absolutely insane Russian banzai attack.

OK for that kind of advance in the open are you not suppose to be behind a rolling artillery barrage?

[Kyriakos]

It's taking awfully long to defeat Russia's conventional army, with it being so useless at everything.

[conon394]

It's taking awfully long to defeat Russia's conventional army, with it being so useless at everything.

They have a bigger endowment of manpower and equipment and an apathetic public and Ukraine has very little to no means to say destroy the power and water systems of Moscow what's your point. They are demonstrably "useless at everything" this was clearly supposed to play out like the Gulf War or maybe Serbia but over 100,000 dead and wounded Russians says err not such a decent military (checks notes what 600 wounded or dead in action Gulf war)

[Kyriakos]

That's my point, since Russia is so useless, it's a great wonder that they still hold around 1/5 of Ukraine's territory.
It is brushed aside, of course, that Russia is using (essentially) only its own military, unlike Ukraine.
Hitting civilian infrastructure isn't new either, happened in both those other equally noble wars you referred to.

[Vanoi]

That's my point, since Russia is so useless, it's a great wonder that they still hold around 1/5 of Ukraine's territory.
It is brushed aside, of course, that Russia is using (essentially) only its own military, unlike Ukraine.
Hitting civilian infrastructure isn't new either, happened in both those other equally noble wars you referred to.

Russia's army is performing badly. However the Ukrainian army itself it's not exactly one of the top 10 armies in the world. The fact a nation that spends significantly less, has significantly less equipment, aircraft, ships, ect. and has managed to hold of one of the "supposed" best armies in the world and even take ground from them?

You can be snide all you want. Russia's army is still in piss poor shape and it should not be having the trouble it has been having in Ukraine.

[antaeus]

OK for that kind of advance in the open are you not suppose to be behind a rolling artillery barrage?

The point of it is to encourage Ukraine to open fire so they can be identified. The meat shield is part of the trade... low quality Russian prisoner canon fodder exchanged for high quality experienced Ukrainian defenders.

[Peresvet]

Russia's army is performing badly. However the Ukrainian army itself it's not exactly one of the top 10 armies in the world. The fact a nation that spends significantly less, has significantly less equipment, aircraft, ships, ect. and has managed to hold of one of the "supposed" best armies in the world and even take ground from them?

You can be snide all you want. Russia's army is still in piss poor shape and it should not be having the trouble it has been having in Ukraine.

The Russian army is not as weak as we would like. It has a large supply of weapons from the Soviet era, a lot of artillery and obsolete tanks, and even high-precision weapons are still there. They would not have been able to take Soledar and conduct a further offensive if they were weak. But the Russian army is still a formidable force, replenished with supplies and reserves throughout Russia. And the Ukrainian army is also not strong enough, it suffered heavy losses and now consists of many unmotivated and poorly trained mobilized soldiers, therefore, in principle, in many respects the forces of these armies are equivalent.