Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

[PointOfViewGun]

Well that's not what I said.

It's what would need to happen if what you said was true. If Democrats are running some kind of scheme then they'd need those people writing those death certificates in their pockets. What you suggested there was hands down ridiculous with no substance to back it up whatsoever. It's only partisan BS.

It also draws out everyone's collective suffering, allows for mutations to occur (which they undeniably have) and prevents the current strains to run through the pool of the uninfected at a high enough rate that it burns itself out. Plus add a devastating global economic depression into the mix.

The lock downs do not contribute to the mutation of the virus. The lack of it does. The more people you introduce the virus to the higher the chances for it to mutate. The lock downs, by eliminating transmission to the vast majority of the public eliminates the gene pool that the virus would come in contact with.

The depression will happen whether you have lock downs or not. Lock downs will not eliminate hurting businesses. In fact, due to businesses incurring operating costs without generating revenues they'd be worse off.

You got all of this backwards.

I doubt the accuracy of that tbh

Do you base that on any scientific knowledge?

[Pontifex Maximus]

It's what would need to happen if what you said was true. If Democrats are running some kind of scheme then they'd need those people writing those death certificates in their pockets. What you suggested there was hands down ridiculous with no substance to back it up whatsoever. It's only partisan BS.

Why does it have to be a conspiracy? Why can't it just be a strategy? Maybe it's malicious, but maybe it's Maybeline. (couldn't help myself, by Maybeline I mean human stupidity or error).

The lock downs do not contribute to the mutation of the virus. The lack of it does. The more people you introduce the virus to the higher the chances for it to mutate. The lock downs, by eliminating transmission to the vast majority of the public eliminates the gene pool that the virus would come in contact with.

The depression will happen whether you have lock downs or not. Lock downs will not eliminate hurting businesses. In fact, due to businesses incurring operating costs without generating revenues they'd be worse off.

You got all of this backwards.

I understand your perspective, I just don't agree.

Do you base that on any scientific knowledge?

Antibody tests in NY indicate a 13-33% of people have had it, which is obviously far outside your estimate even for an urban environment. I don't know why they can't narrow that range down, but there it is. I posted the article a page or so ago.

[PointOfViewGun]

Why does it have to be a conspiracy? Why can't it just be a strategy? Maybe it's malicious, but maybe it's Maybeline. (couldn't help myself, by Maybeline I mean human stupidity or error).

It's a conspiracy since its not their stated strategy nor there is any substance to support the idea.

Not sure what you're trying to say with that link either. It shows correction of an error that only subtracted two cases.

I understand your perspective, I just don't agree.

It's not a matter of opinion. You made a material claim that lock downs allow mutations to occur. There is no sense in that claim.

Antibody tests in NY indicate a 13-33% of people have had it, which is obviously far outside your estimate even for an urban environment. I don't know why they can't narrow that range down, but there it is. I posted the article a page or so ago.

The testing that was done in New York wasn't exactly randomized. They were done in front of grocery stores to volunteers. The pool of tested people were people that were already out. In addition, these tests are not 100% accurate. Depending on the sensitivity of the test you could suddenly see higher numbers than you would in reality. Cuomo didn't provide any sensitivity information on the tests they have used. The tests would also be positive if you just had the flu. Keep in mind that in a normal year even 30% of flu cases are estimated to be caused by corona viruses. None of the antibody tests out there is COVID19 tests.

[Pontifex Maximus]

So let's say it is 13%, that's still pretty big.

[PointOfViewGun]

So let's say it is 13%, that's still pretty big.

14% is actually the percentage for the state overall. If we applied all the factors I mentioned the real number could very well be lower than 5%. With 13%, however, that would mean you'd have 173 thousand deaths from COVID19 in New York alone. That would be the lowest number without any additional factors that would stress the healthcare system of course. With no lock down, you'd have at least that many deaths plus economic depression.

[Pontifex Maximus]

Look I'm just a simple boy from Georgia, but even 5% seems higher than your original contention. In fact almost double.

[Surgeon]

In various lockdown-related shenanigans...

1. Wisconsin's court overruled the extension of their lockdown. So, people being free to do as they please, they of course went to the bars. The governor is on record saying it's like the "wild west" out there now, so I presume we should expect at least 2 train robberies and the extermination of an Indian tribe by the middle of next week.

2. Elon Musk tried to reopen the Tesla plant in CA after the state began easing their lockdown. However, the county told him no, so he sued the county, reopened anyway, and announced his intention to move the plant to Nevada or Texas. The county has since conceded, though Musk is apparently still interested in relocating. Is C19 accelerating capital flight from CA? Maybe, which leads me into...

3. Previously, Cuomo said, "God forbid if the rich leave". Welp... Will they return? NYC better hope so. Seems C19 may be the downfall of big cities. Guess they shouldn't have been so hasty on the lockdowns, perhaps that would've mitigated the damage a bit.

[B. W.]

In various lockdown-related shenanigans...

1. Wisconsin's court overruled the extension of their lockdown. So, people being free to do as they please, they of course went to the bars. The governor is on record saying it's like the "wild west" out there now, so I presume we should expect at least 2 train robberies and the extermination of an Indian tribe by the middle of next week.

2. Elon Musk tried to reopen the Tesla plant in CA after the state began easing their lockdown. However, the county told him no, so he sued the county, reopened anyway, and announced his intention to move the plant to Nevada or Texas. The county has since conceded, though Musk is apparently still interested in relocating. Is C19 accelerating capital flight from CA? Maybe, which leads me into...

3. Previously, Cuomo said, "God forbid if the rich leave". Welp... Will they return? NYC better hope so. Seems C19 may be the downfall of big cities. Guess they shouldn't have been so hasty on the lockdowns, perhaps that would've mitigated the damage a bit.

City life ain't what it used to be.

[antaeus]

As far as I'm concerned, we haven't seen a realistic figure. So long as they are counting as a covid death a death by heart attack while you have covid, I can't trust any figure.

You're setting up some sort of nirvana fallacy where you know that you're never going to get the perfect criteria or evidence so you don't have to answer. I call that cowardice.

The number of Covid-19 related deaths is 87,568 as of the 16th of May. Is this number high enough to change your mind yet? If not, what is your number?

[PointOfViewGun]

Look I'm just a simple boy from Georgia, but even 5% seems higher than your original contention. In fact almost double.

Focusing on that number being higher than my earlier estimate is a convenient argument to make. 5% is a high estimate. Meanwhile, taking it at face value, it still means that at least 1.8 million people would die if the disease was left to go through the entire public within months. That's a number that ignores collapse of the healthcare system, of course. Is that a number you're OK with?

[Pontifex Maximus]

To avoid Great Depression 2.0, yes. Balanced on a whole, Great Depression 2.0 is worse.

[PointOfViewGun]

To avoid Great Depression 2.0, yes. Balanced on a whole, Great Depression 2.0 is worse.

Except the alternative does not avoid Great Depression 2.0 either. In fact, the alternative creates a bigger depression since it simply prolongs the downturn.

[Pontifex Maximus]

What can I say? I disagree

[PointOfViewGun]

What can I say? I disagree

Well, one would attempt to substantiate what you disagree with. Multiple people pointed out how not having lock downs would lead to the same or worse economic downturn as people react to deaths. I haven't seen a single person, you or others that follow the same opinion as you, address any of those points.

[Pontifex Maximus]

Well, one would attempt to substantiate what you disagree with. Multiple people pointed out how not having lock downs would lead to the same or worse economic downturn as people react to deaths. I haven't seen a single person, you or others that follow the same opinion as you, address any of those points.

I understand your frustration that you've been unconvincing, and that there are people that disagree with your opinion. Yet I am unmoved. May I offer you a cigar?

[PointOfViewGun]

I understand your frustration that you've been unconvincing, and that there are people that disagree with your opinion. Yet I am unmoved. May I offer you a cigar?

It's not really frustration, nor that I have been unconvincing. That would require an actual discussion on the matter. When you're simply exhibiting disregard for the holes in your claims it would be an invalid thought to consider whether I've been convincing. For you to be unmoved we'd have to be appealing to your emotions as well. In reality, we're, well, pointing at the reality. Meanwhile, disregard for that, whether its done under partisanship or any other reason, if it founds shape in the leadership we face, costs lives.

[Genava]

I understand your frustration that you've been unconvincing, and that there are people that disagree with your opinion. Yet I am unmoved. May I offer you a cigar?

An economic crisis can happen from supply or demand shocks. I doubt that letting a pandemic swamping freely the health system would let the consumers unaffected. They would probably just consume less.

[antaeus]

An economic crisis can happen from supply or demand shocks. I doubt that letting a pandemic swamping freely the health system would let the consumers unaffected. They would probably just consume less.

(At least in the demand side...) This seems to be borne out according to this collection of Danish economists at the University of Copenhagen after surveying sales data across Scandinavia, they found after consumers stopped spending no matter whether they were in tight lockdown or not.

We estimate a massive reduction in consumer spending in both Denmark and Sweden around the date of the Danish lockdown.

This drop consists of a common component to both countries of around 25 per cent, and an additional drop in Denmark of just under 4 percentage points as a result of the shutdown.

This finding suggests that the vast majority of the fall in economic activity in the Covid-19 crisis can be attributed to perceived disease risks influencing behaviour, rather than government restrictions

[Infidel144]

They have no good answer for why more Americans have contracted the virus and why America has more deaths than any other country in the world. Trump and his supporters will say and do anything and everything to deflect away from these damning facts.

Coughdrop addict is correct. As reported by https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ The US has the most (reported) cases, 1.528 million. And the most (reported) deaths, 91,000.

Hmmm... I wonder if any of that could have something to do with:
The US having the most tests, 12 million.

And the US having a much larger population than (almost all) other countries:
Cases per million population, the US ranks at #12, and deaths per million US is #13 (and tests is #39).

I nearly wonder what Coughdrop addict's thoughts on New York are, seeing as how NY is #1 both in total cases and deaths and per million.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[PointOfViewGun]

Cases per million population, the US ranks at #12, and deaths per million US is #13 (and tests is #39).

That kinda puts USA at a worse position, does it not? USA seems to be behind on testing, yet it's one of the leading countries on case and death numbers.