I wanted to start this thread as more of a guided community thought exercise than as a debate thread. However, if disagreements on matters of fact become apparent, then let the chips fall where they may. I certainly have my own opinions as I’ll detail below, but I want to foster as much meaningful discussion as a speculative topic might allow.
With talk of a US in decline becoming increasingly mainstream, I thought the best way to capture opinions on a variety of timely subjects might be in relation to that theme. On paper, there is little to suggest the US is in danger of forfeiting its status as the world’s sole superpower. Its military might is supreme, the dollar is the common currency of international commerce, and the economy shows little sign of risking a major catastrophe in the foreseeable future. I would argue, however, that it doesn’t take much digging to question those assumptions in the near term.
I don’t necessarily expect China to be able to “out-‘Merica America” and literally take our place at the head of nations, regardless of whatever her ultimate ambition may be. I do, however, believe a convergence of factors has already begun a major shift that few, if any in US leadership, seem to fully consider. I’ll sort these factors as follows:
Military
Victory in the Cold War left the US military with unquestionable power and global reach. Political and world events led to a new mandate in which the US ostensibly committed to stamping out Islamic terror, with unclear objectives and mixed results.
30 years after the fall of the USSR, the US military is not as omnipotent as it once was. The lack of a clear mandate from the federal government has left the military ill equipped to face a new generation of consequently asymmetrical threats. Aging tech and hardware, combined with sprawling commitments in the Middle East, has produced a crisis of military readiness against peer competitors like China. Increasingly isolationist, domestically focused politics at home, coupled with alliances strained by “America First,” have amplified this risk. There is no longer any guarantee that the US could emerge victorious if forced to sustain an open conflict against a determined coalition of ambitious enemies, especially if the latter has first strike advantage.
Will decades of sustained cyber warfare and espionage against the US and its allies eventually reveal a global shift in the balance of power?
Will new or asymmetrical tactics allow US adversaries to expand and consolidate regional ambitions on a permanent basis?
Will a major conflagration of great powers bring down US supremacy and lead to the rise of a new superpower?
Will the US’ gradual decline allow for the development of a multipolar, decentralized balance of power in the world?
Politics
Following the Cold War, the US increasingly took its status for granted. By the time China, Russia, and various Islamist regimes firmly disproved the theory that economic globalization would gradually ensure worldwide political liberalization, US leaders seemed to have no Plan B for foreign policy.
Political turmoil in the US has compounded a lack of cohesion with its traditional allies in the face of increasing coordination between ascendant authoritarian powers. Neither Democrats nor Republicans seem to be interested in shoring up the traditional world order. If anything, Trump’s “America First” mantra and the Democrats’ singular focus on placating the isolationist plank in their voting base appear likely to accelerate this trend. This doesn’t seem like good news for Pax Americana.
Will “America First” and leftward US political trends toward isolationism eventually break apart the post-WW2 network of US allies?
Will declining US influence allow Europe to play a more global role, as its increasing divergence from US policy suggests?
Will individual nation states be able to chart their own path, or will aggressive US adversaries like China, Russia and Iran exert growing hegemony?
Putin famously declared that “liberalism is dead.” Will a post-US world order fit such a prediction, or will the legacy of Anglo-American democratic norms persist?
Economy
The US is in the midst of its longest sustained economic expansion in history. Yet, a growing political consensus that the real gains of this expansion were captured disproportionately by Capital relative to Labor threatens to unleash unprecedented political changes to the US economy. At a time when China’s economic ascension is reasonably assured, and US adversaries are leading a trend of divestment from USD, these potential changes could accelerate a shift in the global economic order.
Diversification away from the US’ economic dominance is not necessarily a threat in and of itself. However, Democrats and Republicans seem to be increasingly united behind historically high levels of public spending, mercantilism and trade protectionism. This threatens the US’ ability to maintain its traditional commitment to globalization.
A convergence of these trends will not only open windows of opportunity for US adversaries to dislodge her singular leverage over the global economy, it may also play into the decline of King Dollar. The latter may, in turn, undermine the US’ privileged status as the world’s financial safe haven, which traditionally shields it from global instability and allows it to finance unlimited public debt. If the engine of US power falters, there’s little to suggest it could avoid a permanent decline if not a crisis.
Will advances in financial tech, global trends, and the coordinated efforts of US adversaries gradually succeed in convincing banks and markets to abandon the dollar?
If yes, will this trend, coupled with low-tax, high-spend US domestic policies, turn ballooning public deficits into an economic “Achilles heel?”
Will China succeed in its ambitions to harness the lessons of western capitalism and power its authoritarian economic model to global supremacy?
Will globalization necessitate a re-concentration of economic dominance elsewhere, or foster multi-polarization?
Thanks for reading. Feel free to comment on any of the above, or introduce your own related topics.