So Much for the New European Century

[deRougemont]

Here's a thought provoking article written by the great historian, Walter Laqueur. His thesis is that Europe is in an irreversible decline because... well, the details I leave to you guys to read over and think about. I'll attach a poll to see what the reaction is, though reading the article should be a prerequisite to answering the poll.

Get an idea of who Laqueur is here.

[Falconius]

Historians allways see everything as being in the great decline. That's their job ;P

[deRougemont]

Historians allways see everything as being in the great decline. That's their job ;P

In this case, not so. If you had read the article you would have seen that he points out the optimism of many historians -- at the turn of the century -- that Europe would become more powerful than it ever dreamed.

[Falconius]

Doh! My joke has been pwnd!

[Darth Wong]

That article would be a lot more convincing if it included numbers and references to formal studies substantiating his entirely qualitative claims. That's not to say that the dreams of a unified European superpower were real, but the way he makes it sound, Europe is on the road to ruin, which seems just as unrealistic.

[deRougemont]

That article would be a lot more convincing if it included numbers and references to formal studies substantiating his entirely qualitative claims. That's not to say that the dreams of a unified European superpower were real, but the way he makes it sound, Europe is on the road to ruin, which seems just as unrealistic.

There are stats there, but you must read it first to see them. Also, keep in mind that it was taken from his new book, so the footnotes that would be there are not to be found on this particular webpage excerpt. Having been forced to read Laqueur at university, I can vouch for the detail of his research (for whatever that is worth).

[Darth Wong]

There are stats there, but you must read it first to see them. Also, keep in mind that it was taken from his new book, so the footnotes that would be there are not to be found on this particular webpage excerpt. Having been forced to read Laqueur at university, I can vouch for the detail of his research (for whatever that is worth).

There are stats for demographic makeup, but not for all the behavioural claims he is making, and upon which he is basing his argument.

[enoch]

europe was done after WW1 - that ship sailed - remember the Lion

I however voted - too soon too tell

[olvios]

To decline one has to be in high ground.And when was that?(just kidding) Still the noonne knows what the future may bring and humans are the most unpredictable species

[Yorkshireman]

I voted too soon to tell, the pessimist in me leads me to believe we're too far gone down the road, but the optimist hope's that future generations will have the sense and courage to haul us back from the brink.

[deRougemont]

I voted too soon to tell, the pessimist in me leads me to believe we're too far gone down the road, but the optimist hope's that future generations will have the sense and courage to haul us back from the brink.

I hope you are right. Another Renaissance perhaps?

[Erik]

Europe is changing, but change doesn't mean decline IMO.

It seems Laqueur think culture is a steady state, and any change to your culture means it's declining.
But that's not how I see it.

A comparison:
Up until the 1950's Europeans were very rigid and sexuality was something to keep hidden and to be ashamed of. (especially if your secuality happened to deviate from "the norm").
In the 1960's and 1970's this changed dramatically: Europeans, encouraged by American influences, became more open and personal freedom became more important than conforming to the norm.
But does this mean the "old European culture" of pre-1960 has declined? -According to Laqueur's view it has, but I disagree.

Of course immigrants will have their impact on our culture, just like America had their impact after WWII.
We will have to adopt to them like they have to adopt to us.
And I agree with Laqueur that communities that get stuck in the 2007 European culture will eventually become somewhat of an amusement park.
But that's not a bad thing!

Evolution and change is GOOD, it's not something to fear.
It's the only way to improve.
And arch conservatives like Laqueur will either have to learn to live in a changing worls, or in 30 years time we will make his home into an amusement park where, in 2037, we can gaze in amazement on how primitive and uncivilized Europe was back in 2007.

In the meantime I will move forward into the 21st century with my multi-cultural neighbors, and rather than feeling sorry for the culture I might loose I'm looking forward to the new possibilities this new European culture will bring.

I think this video tells it all:

I suppose this video makes conservatives like Laqueur cry, but it made me smile.

[Carach]

the article doesnt take into account possible major political leaders and or/dictators emerging to unite europe and propelling it into a more powerful role - obviously this doesnt have much of a chance of happening, but its a possibility and one which i see as one of the few ways to get Europe out of the trouble its in - Unity has rarely occured through peace; Britain had many wars with scotland before being united eventually, Greece was never united without war, Italy was only united through war, Germany, while having several steps towards unification, only achieved it through Bismark's "blood and iron" (aka war and industry)..

The current form doesnt have a too bright a future tbh - and these things go in circles remember, democracy in its current form wont be around forever Europe needs strong leaders and doers, not talkative and spineless politicians.

Of course soviet and american dominance of the continent since ww2 is what really crippled europe for good (at least for the forseeable future)... neither have particular interest in having Europe become too strong again.

as for the decline in birth rates, i believe thats directly related to the 'equal rights' of women being established throughout most of europe and the decline of religion and family values - we need a war! theres always baby booms after wars!

[Oldgamer]

I think it's too soon to tell.

In all likelihood, the coming century will be another American century. The author said that Americans can only dream of a "35-hour work week", but that's not the point. Americans don't want to work 35 hours per week, if working 40 or 48 gives them a greater chance of success in life.

The 21st Century may well be a time of extraordinary tensions and violence in Europe. The current Muslim invasion of the continent will not continue without an eruption of xenophobia. I hope that this eruption doesn't include an Adolf II, as part of the mix.

If caucasian Europeans can settle their differences with Muslims amicably, and with mutual respect, then there is hope for Europe.

[Carach]

If caucasian Europeans can settle their differences with Muslims amicably, and with mutual respect, then there is hope for Europe.

muslims refuse, not the other way around, oldgamer.

[Oldgamer]

muslims refuse, not the other way around, oldgamer.

That's the problem, my friend. Immigrants should be willing to assimilate into the overall culture of a nation they move to. To their credit, many Muslims do assimilate. But there is a radical portion of the Muslim immigrants that demands the accomodation of their culture, which includes their law.

There will be conflict, at some point in the future, when European governments say, "No more accomodation". A small group of radicals could easily cause a backlash, leading to civil war.

@Erik
What does it all mean?

By 2049 (my 101st birthyear!), Medieval 35 Total War will be totally kick-ass!

[molonthegreat]

I dont think that Europes future is bright with this development and i agree with Carach that strong leaders are needed in this time of change. The worst case scenario of the future would be a Civil war in europe against the immigrants and maybe mass genocide if they dont adopt into the european society.

Btw i almost cried when i looked at that movie.

[Visna]

"The New European Century"?? Is there an old European century? Or is it more like the PNAC in which case I'll actually be quite relieved that the New European Century can be dismissed.

[deRougemont]

I dont think that Europes future is bright with this development and i agree with Carach that strong leaders are needed in this time of change. The worst case scenario of the future would be a Civil war in europe against the immigrants and maybe mass genocide if they dont adopt into the european society.

Btw i almost cried when i looked at that movie.

I found the video disturbing as well. Nothing good can come of statistics like those. This is not a matter of integration of different cultures/groups, it's a matter of the extinction of the Europeans.

[Darth Wong]

I found the video disturbing as well. Nothing good can come of statistics like those. This is not a matter of integration of different cultures/groups, it's a matter of the extinction of the Europeans.

Is European culture a set of ideas, or is it genetic and racial bloodlines?