No summer ice in the Arctic by 2020

[Mythos]

http://www.reuters.com/article/envir...22477020070501

Very worrying...especially given the fact that if you get too much ice melting in the north, the Gulf stream might be severely affected, which may lead to a new ice age in Europe.

[Simetrical]

This is according to climate models, presumably. Which were tested . . . when? Why should we believe them on things they've never been tested on? Global warming as a whole you can argue on, but specific stuff like this is ridiculous. And notice that it's virtually always negative, too. I guess climatologists are so optimistic that they always assume something better than reality until the evidence comes in, hmm? Or more likely, they realize that the public isn't going to be impressed as much by "Oh, yeah, it's about as bad as we've been saying all along" as by "Oh, well, you don't care so much now, but it's even worse than we told you! No, worse than that! Worse than that! Do you care enough yet? It's worse than that!"

Sensationalist (pseudo-)science at its worst. Not that it's by any means confined to climatology (I'm thinking health-related hysteria in particular), although that's almost certainly the field of science that's currently asking for the most money by far to be staked on its predictions.

[Sheep]

This is according to climate models, presumably. Which were tested . . . when?

Um, actually it was based on satellite pictures. Visual evidence in the real world.

The satellite pictues showed an Arctic icecap which has actually melted to a far greater degree than previously supposed even in the IPCC report of only a few months ago.

In fact, a major point of the paper was that the climate models DIDN'T match up with reality... only that instead of the models exaggerating the situation, they actually didn't go far enough.

[TheKwas]

This is according to climate models, presumably. Which were tested . . . when? Why should we believe them on things they've never been tested on? Global warming as a whole you can argue on, but specific stuff like this is ridiculous. And notice that it's virtually always negative, too. I guess climatologists are so optimistic that they always assume something better than reality until the evidence comes in, hmm? Or more likely, they realize that the public isn't going to be impressed as much by "Oh, yeah, it's about as bad as we've been saying all along" as by "Oh, well, you don't care so much now, but it's even worse than we told you! No, worse than that! Worse than that! Do you care enough yet? It's worse than that!"

Are you suggesting that the current models for the future are actually more optimistic than the reality?

[Simetrical]

Um, actually it was based on satellite pictures. Visual evidence in the real world.

No, the reduction in ice is known based on satellite pictures. The extrapolation to 2020 is a model, or guesswork or whatever. That's what I'm objecting to. I have no reason to doubt the satellite evidence itself.

Are you suggesting that the current models for the future are actually more optimistic than the reality?

I don't see how my post could have been interpreted that way?

[Sheep]

No, the reduction in ice is known based on satellite pictures. The extrapolation to 2020 is a model, or guesswork or whatever. That's what I'm objecting to. I have no reason to doubt the satellite evidence itself.

The satellite pictures are compared with older ones showing a much larger extent of sea ice. This leads to being able to calculate a new melt rate, greater than the one predicted in the IPCC report. This new paper states that if ice continues to melt at the rate it has now been observed melting at, that Arctic sea ice will be gone in the summer of 2020. It's not a complicated computer model or anything, just mathematical extrapolation.

oh great more global warming crap if there is no summer ice in the arctic i will go out and see that Al Gore movie on global warming. As you can tell i think this global warming stuff is a load of crap. Well i do think that the Earth is in a warming faze, but i think humans have nothing to do with it. period.

I wonder in what format you will be watching the movie in 2020?

A warming phase unlike any seen since the Arctic ice sheet formed 3 million years ago? In 200 years we are going from a relatively cool interglacial period to an Oligocene glacier-free world?

[Simetrical]

The satellite pictures are compared with older ones showing a much larger extent of sea ice. This leads to being able to calculate a new melt rate, greater than the one predicted in the IPCC report. This new paper states that if ice continues to melt at the rate it has now been observed melting at, that Arctic sea ice will be gone in the summer of 2020. It's not a complicated computer model or anything, just mathematical extrapolation.

Right, but not necessarily a founded one. If the warming of the northern hemisphere that's happened since February or so were to continue for the next 50 years, average surface temperature would be somewhere above the melting point of lead. But I suspect we'll find that it will mysteriously peak in a couple of months and start decreasing again during the fall and winter.

A warming phase unlike any seen since the Arctic ice sheet formed 3 million years ago? In 200 years we are going from a relatively cool interglacial period to an Oligocene glacier-free world?

Is that so? I'm not seeing that.



Notice that while the bold black line that extends back only to the late nineteenth century was placed on top of the longer colored lines and obscures them, it can be seen that according to some metrics (red, light green; see description page for sources) we seem to be no warmer than the Medieval Warm Period a thousand years back. Add in the uncertainties in all of these measurements, not shown in the figure, and it seems hardly clear that the warming phase is unlike any in the past ten thousand years, let alone three million years. Indeed, apparently EPICA and the Vostok cores show much warmer temperatures 120,000 years or so back:



(Once more, you can check the image description page for the exact sources.)

I observe once more that if millennial climatologists had noted the rising temperature and extrapolated it two centuries into the future, they would have had reason to worry as well. I remain unconvinced of the clarity of any threat facing us. And even if there is one, I haven't seen any good reason for why cutting back on our use of fossil fuels, liquid gold, is the most economical or reasonable way of facing it.

[chris_uk_83]

Hooray, a white Christmas! I like snow and we never get any Go global warming!

[Niles Crane]

I guess this means that I'll have to cancel my trip to the Arctic in 2020.

[Skyler]

I guess this means that I'll have to cancel my trip to the Arctic in 2020.

You can still go there on your yacht silly.

[zznɟ ǝɥʇ]

I wonder in Canada and whoever will go to war over the dispute over islands up there...

[DisgruntledGoat]

I wonder in Canada and whoever will go to war over the dispute over islands up there...

Theres only one island, and its with Denmark. And Canada has been in control of said Island for some time. The bigger issue for Canada would be defending its sovereignty in the artic if its open and free of ice. We don't have the ships etc to patrol those waters as they are now and our possession of them have already been questioned. If the ice melts away enough to let a lot of ships pass easily it could be bad news for Canada.

[C.M.]

I wonder in Canada and whoever will go to war over the dispute over islands up there...

I will

Nobody takes our natural ressources of rocks, ice and cold weather.

[Ummon]

It is also possible that the amount of sweet water coming from polar ice melting ends the gulf current, therefore causing an ice age. In that case, a lot of summer ice is to be expected...

[Primvs Sextvs Loverlord]

When I become really old, I'll tell my grandchildren that the 50's were marked by the Cold War, the 70's were about Disco, the 80's was about bad fashion and the early 2000's were about global warming and climate change. I'd tell them how fashionable and "in" it was to talk about it. In fact, everyone on TV was talking about it as well. Hybrid cars were the ultimate fashion statement.

Now some of you might say that I'd probably be knee-deep in water by that time if I'm lucky but I wouldn't believe you.

[Templar Knight]

oh great more global warming crap if there is no summer ice in the arctic i will go out and see that Al Gore movie on global warming. As you can tell i think this global warming stuff is a load of crap. Well i do think that the Earth is in a warming faze, but i think humans have nothing to do with it. period.

[Ummon]

How much experience do you have in analysis of chaotic systems?

[Diogenes_of_Sinope]

I agree with Simetrical --> IMO extrapolation is a half-wit analysis practice and pretty much a lame assumption... and like the military say: "when U ASSUME, you make an ASS of both U and ME".
Is there something wrong with current weather patterns? probably.
Can we estimate what the repercusions will be by 2020? certainly not.
I read somewhere that chaotic systems seem to follow a certain pattern (the butterfly thingy) but I'm sure that pattern involves huge margins of error, so what exactly do you mean, Ummon?
If you have something to share, I'm all ears and I'll be quite grateful to you for it (not that I assume you'd care ).

[Simetrical]

How much experience do you have in analysis of chaotic systems?

I read a popular book by Lorenz, that's about it. But the scientific method I know when I see it, it's not terribly complicated, and I don't see it here. I've been meaning to read the IPCC's latest Assessment Report, incidentally . . . maybe I'll do that now.

[Ummon]

I read a popular book by Lorenz, that's about it. But the scientific method I know when I see it, it's not terribly complicated, and I don't see it here. I've been meaning to read the IPCC's latest Assessment Report, incidentally . . . maybe I'll do that now.

If you raise the energy level of the system, the number of semi-stable metastates increases. The system infact jumps from metastate to metastate, according to a simple quasi-scale law.

The more you raise the energy, the more metastates, the wider jumps, you get.

When I saw the graph you posted, my instinct was to worry. Infact, we see a new metastate emerging. Disorder is increasing.