15 British sailors seized by Iran

[Tom Paine]

Generally accurate to within 2ft, but a GPS accurate to within a meter can suddenly get very confused for five minutes for no apparent reason at times; and furthermore, the helicopter gives a good account but we don't know whether or not they did stray into Iranian territorial waters by mistake, and that's rather a problem. All we can do is conjecture. My theory is we need more before condemning anyone.

[the Black Prince]

to quote from the BBCs interview with Admiral Sir Alan West, the former First Sea Lord

The other thing about 2004 was that it was actually quite close to the Shatt al-Arab mouth, going up the river, where you can say, 'Well, it's quite close, where is the median line?', although they were clearly in Iraqi waters. This has taken place further out.

How can you tell which waters you are in?

It is highly complex. A commission is meant to meet to lay down the median line down the Shatt al-Arab and agree where the various lines are. So we have the line we believe is the correct one. We then make allowance the other side of it and make sure our craft operate well clear of that.

What kind of equipment would the navy have to guide them?

They have GPS and they have a system which allows communications. It means they know where the mother ship is and the mother ship knows where they are. GPS means they know their position exactly.

It's not like the old days when you went away in a boat and didn't really have a clue where you were. But all they had were small arms, they don't have heavy weapons. So of course to actually start fighting patrol boats would not be a clever thing.

What are the rules of engagement in this type of situation?

The rules are very much de-escalatory, because we don't want wars starting. The reason we are there is to be a force for good, to make the whole area safe, to look after the Iraqi big oil platforms and also to stop smuggling and terrorism there.

So we try to downplay things. Rather then roaring into action and sinking everything in sight we try to step back and that, of course, is why our chaps were effectively able to be captured and taken away.

If we find this is going to be a standard practice we need to think very carefully about what rules of engagement we want and how we operate. One can't allow as a standard practice nations to capture a nation's servicemen. That is clearly wrong.

the incident seems to have happened off the coast, rather than in a crowded waterway where its easier to make mistakes (like in 2004, where, however much we stuck to our guns, we were never entirely sure if they were in iranian waters or not).

the navy, and the foreign office both say they are in iraqi waters, they are backed up by the US military. the iranians say they were in iran. given that iran claims pretty much the entire gulf to be iranian waters, and certainly claims the entire shartt al-arab as being iranian, then short of an action such as in the film Tomorrow Never Dies, i'm inclined to trust the navies assesment. especially given that they took steps in improving and utilising equipment post 2004 to make sure accidents didn't happen

[the Black Prince]

UPDATE

The Times reports that a website run by associates of the Iranian president states that the 15 will be tried for espionage

Referring to them as “insurgents”, the site concluded: “If it is proven that they deliberately entered Iranian territory, they will be charged with espionage. If that is proven, they can expect a very serious penalty since according to Iranian law, espionage is one of the most serious offences.”

the penalty for espionage in Iran is death. If they go through with this, public opinion for military action, already high, will skyrocket faster than trident. especially as one of the 15 is a woman

[Angmar_nite]

To be tried for espionage do you not have to act outside of your nations uniform? This is terrible.

The british will nto stand for it, the peopel will rally behind their Prime Minister, and the American opinion on the Middle East will lean more towards war if this occurs. While I am all for keeping Iran out of the group of countries with nukes, my aim for the region is finishing the fight. Not Starting a new one.

[RZZZA]

UPDATE

The Times reports that a website run by associates of the Iranian president states that the 15 will be tried for espionage



the penalty for espionage in Iran is death. If they go through with this, public opinion for military action, already high, will skyrocket faster than trident. especially as one of the 15 is a woman

soldiers? Conducting espionage?


Isnt that a little...unlikely and nonsensical?

[danzig]

UPDATE

The Times reports that a website run by associates of the Iranian president states that the 15 will be tried for espionage



the penalty for espionage in Iran is death. If they go through with this, public opinion for military action, already high, will skyrocket faster than trident. especially as one of the 15 is a woman

They made the same threat with the other Brits who were detained no? They cant seriously be considering this, the Iranians want something here imo hence this whole incident. Alot of news rumbling is pointing at the Iranians Revolutionary Guard personal caught in Iraq that are being held by the US and wouldnt suprise me if there is some link between this act and the missing Iranian General...perhaps the Iranians want some exchange which of course is not going to happen if these people are being held by the US. Iran really should walk softly here, its a fine line they are walking here and their biggest strength is in making their disagreement between the US and Israel and avoid bringing other parties like Europe into it.

[zznɟ ǝɥʇ]

...good one Iran.

Right when I saw this I thought that anything that gives us Americans an excuse to attack them is bad...I swear their leaders must be on something?

If they're trying to provoke war, why? Why bring that upon their people?

[Tom Paine]

The UK is already in it...
The problem here being espionage is a stupid thing to try them for. This is pretty patently a simple way to get a prisoner exchange. If the people they want are held by the UK, the PM will be pressured into it. If by the US, then the PM will be forced into delivering an ultimatum to the President, by the people, of withdraw of support unless a prisoner exchange does occur. Iran wins either way, if it wants a prisoner exchange; either fragmenting their foes or getting those they want back, back.

[Caelius]

and avoid bringing other parties like Europe into it.

Funny you say that at a time when a French aircraft carrier just recently arrived in the Persian Gulf.

The UK is already in it...
The problem here being espionage is a stupid thing to try them for. This is pretty patently a simple way to get a prisoner exchange. If the people they want are held by the UK, the PM will be pressured into it. If by the US, then the PM will be forced into delivering an ultimatum to the President, by the people, of withdraw of support unless a prisoner exchange does occur. Iran wins either way, if it wants a prisoner exchange; either fragmenting their foes or getting those they want back, back.

Unfortunately it's never going to work like that. The US and UK will not be handing over Iranian personnel who either defected or clearly were conducting espionage in return for British soldiers who were doing nothing more than normal search operations. I'm afraid if this incident escalates any further and the Iranians actually are crazy enough to try them they could have US and UK ships off their coast ready to sink their entire navy. Not to mention the fact that with two CVBGs in theater the US could conduct 24 hour combat sorties.

[Tom Paine]

Unfortunately it's never going to work like that. The US and UK will not be handing over Iranian personnel who either defected or clearly were conducting espionage in return for British soldiers who were doing nothing more than normal search operations. I'm afraid if this incident escalates any further and the Iranians actually are crazy enough to try them they could have US and UK ships off their coast ready to sink their entire navy. Not to mention the fact that with two CVBGs in theater the US could conduct 24 hour combat sorties.

Don't bet on it; the amount of pressure that will be and is being put on Blair to do anything he can to get them back is large and will increase, nothing else, especially when it becomes common knowledge that they are under the threat of death.

[VALIS]

A UN resolution was going to be passed to put sanctions on Iran,i wonder if this move was done to put pressure on Britain to veto the resolution 'or else' the servicemen may be punished.

[boofhead]

Iran has a history of taking hostages pffffffffffttttttt and releasing them. I believe they have failed to understand that hostage-taking is an old trick which used to apply to the family members of rulers. Now they seem to think that 15 "insignificant" lives will be guaranteed under humanitarian values.

Any harm to those men will be a reason to attack Iran, so Iran I feel will not harm them.

[villain4hire]

Iran can do whatever it wants because the brits today do not have the balls to act on its own without asking permission from their true masters the United States. Brits - U.S. lackeys.

[Yorkshireman]

Iran can do whatever it wants because the brits today do not have the balls to act on its own without asking permission from their true masters the United States. Brits - U.S. lackeys.

Yeah, the last country that thought we would never act were the Argentinians and look what happend to them. No one expects anyone to go to war over this, the US themselves did'nt in the 80's and how long did the Iranians hold their embassy staff hostage?

[Gaius Baltar]

Iran can do whatever it wants because the brits today do not have the balls to act on its own without asking permission from their true masters the United States. Brits - U.S. lackeys.

All this makes me wonder about the Brits "rules of engagement". IF they were in Iraqi waters, as stated, why are they allowing Iranian gunboats to enter said waters and kidnap sailors? Seems very passive to me. And worthy of explanation.

[the Black Prince]

unlikely. in this case blair will have massive public opinion on his side to take military action should any of the hostages come to harm


as for bringing europe into, the german presidency of the EU has already demanded the immediate release of the british personnel. Given that in the past, french german spanish and italian warships have served in the task group thats currently made up of british american and australian warships under british command, i think the europeans military countries are going to be rather inclined to support britain here, as it could well be their sailors six months down the line who are in the same situation.

[Holger Danske]

unlikely. in this case blair will have massive public opinion on his side to take military action should any of the hostages come to harm


as for bringing europe into, the german presidency of the EU has already demanded the immediate release of the british personnel. Given that in the past, french german spanish and italian warships have served in the task group thats currently made up of british american and australian warships under british command, i think the europeans military countries are going to be rather inclined to support britain here, as it could well be their sailors six months down the line who are in the same situation.

Yeah who knows, maybe it's time for Europe to finally flex it's military muscle and prove that we can wage war without America doing all the work for us...
Even though you can bet on that the American carriers stationed in the Gulf is going to participate in a bombing frenzy of Tehran.

[Carach]

Even though you can bet on that the American carriers stationed in the Gulf is going to participate in a bombing frenzy of Tehran.

that would be essential, europe has a pitiful air-power projection capability consisting of what, a few carriers (british ones can have like a dozen harriers each, de gualle has 20-40?.. spain has one small carrier if they were to get involved, and italy too (or did they decommision theirs?)

Whatever way you look at it Europe cant do jack without american aid - as much as it hurts to admit.

It seems to me as if the RN really mucked things up here this time. Don't get me wrong - Iran is way out of line and I hope Europe will take the necessary actions to prevent any harm coming to the captured (kidnapped?) sailors. Perhaps I just don't know the facts, but in the articles I've been reading it is said that the sailors were searching merchant vessels for contraband when the Iranian forces surrounded them at gunpoint. My only question: where was the gunboat that the sailors were serving on?

I would think that standard procedure in a war zone would be to provide the sailors with backup in the form of their gunboat whenever they were searching other ships. Hell, even the US Coast Guard does this and their cutters don't even come close to having the firepower of a RN frigate. Why were these sailors being sent aboard other ships with no more backup than the launches they were travelling on?

the RN are extremely restricted as to what they can and cant do by political Rules of Engagement - Check out the Falklands war for an example, we were in a war and had ships on "4 days notice to engage the enemy" (ie they had to ask permission to fire on a hostile ship and in 4 days if that hostile was still around being tracked by this ship it could be fired upon.. something like that)

Politics getting in the way of action as usual; not the RN's fualt (as i seriously doubt the cornwall was far from the scene certainly not over the horizon)

as for the Iranian confidence in kidnapping these guys, Iranian gunboats have been 'lingering' around offshore iraqi oilrigs like chavs outside tesco - they were only disuaded(sp) from pulling any funny business by (i think) a t23 frigate looming over the horizon.

This isnt the first time the iranians have come over the boundries they so aggressively 'defend'

to quote one ofthose articles

Iranian student groups called yesterday for the 15 detainees to be held until US forces released five Revolutionary Guards captured in Iraq earlier this year.

Didnt people claim here the students were the ones most opposed to our friend the President in iran?

oh and another btw: http://www.imdb.com/gallery/ss/01331...=0133152&seq=2

does the evil ape from the movie (planet of the apes, 2001) look a bit like our friendly iranian president? The resembalence is uncanny! :/

[Yorkshireman]

I'm still inclined to believe the Royal Navy's reliance on sattelite GPS over the reports of Iraqi fishermen. We've made enough blunders over the years not to admit another one. The Iranians only had to order the British boats to turn about if they thought they were infringing on their waters, thats normal maritime courtesy. The Iranians are just playing a game.

[the Black Prince]

really?

An Iraqi fisherman who said he saw Iranian forces detain them, said on Saturday the ship British forces were searching was anchored in Iraqi waters.

the british were in iranian waters by irans definition of whats its territory is... after what happened in 2004, we went to extra lengths to ensure there was no chance our sailors could ever stray into what the international community recognises as iranian waters