Red Dawn... Rising

[humvee2800]

Well, its that time again, time once more too look back at russia with wonder... and a bit of fear.

What is the cause of this fear you may ask? well it has been always well known that russia is corrupt, but untill recently they had no where near such a large source of income for the government to steal. Now however the Russia economy is starting to explode, Why? , Oil. with the rise of oil prices and increased exploration in Russia , oil sales in russia are starting to skyrocket. The citizens of course see none of this money, it is flowing into the government, and in particular, the military. Russia is starting to update, strengthen, and rearm its military as well as military research. Now I have to wonder where this will lead. At first alot of us though Russia would slowly embrace democracy and one day join the rest of europe but now I have to wonder what road it is one now.

Now if the government was not as corrupt as it is and the citizens were receiving there share i would be applauding the Russians, especially for there decision to make use of some of their old battlecruisers, which i have a particular interest in. The government however is corrupt and conditions suprisingly similar to that of a coming dictatorship.

First

-People please research and think through your arguements rather then one sentence along the lines of "Bah, the russians had their time and now they are on the way out"

Second

- First try and refrain from pulling bush, america, or trying to draw a connection , even in a joking manner, between the oil here or some random America bashing and lets keep this focused on the topic of the future of Russia

[NaptownKnight]

The future of Russia is war with China. China needs those oil fields in Siberia desperately, and they've got the second best army in the world to do this with.

[humvee2800]

Largest, not quite second best, it will be about 10 years before China has a modernized military which is a bit more then the time it will take Russia.

but if your interested in such a scenario is suggest you read the bear and the dragon, its a fictional book but is a interesting read.

[burrek]

Largest, not quite second best, it will be about 10 years before China has a modernized military which is a bit more then the time it will take Russia.

but if your interested in such a scenario is suggest you read the bear and the dragon, its a fictional book but is a interesting read.

Pretty good book (definitely not the best Calncy has done). Although I'm not sure we will ever get in such a situation.

At most we will have a cold war and then a quick dissolution as one of the giants collapses under it's own weight (some sort of populist revolution).

The current re-militarization is mostly to deal with "internal" threats (Chechnya, Tibet, etc.) and not external enemies, not yet anyways. A major war would be a costly affair for both of the states.

In fact, two large empires seldom fight each other if we look at history. Most of the time it is either the large kicking the small or a coalition against a larger threat. The keys words are "balance of power." You never attack an enemy unless you'er sure to win.

[humvee2800]

Well i dont think we should be looking at world wars quite yet, the only fact we kn ow is a less then stable Russia is remilitarizing and try and figure out as best we can where this might lead.

[Freddie]

The future of Russia is war with China. China needs those oil fields in Siberia desperately, and they've got the second best army in the world to do this with.

Largest yes but hardly the most up to date or modern army is it? Even with Russians economic problems you’re military should be more the adequate to squash any expansionists hope China has.

[NaptownKnight]

Largest yes but hardly the most up to date or modern army is it? Even with Russians economic problems you’re military should be more the adequate to squash any expansionists hope China has.

You're millitary? Well I'm sure my millitary ( the U.S.) can crush anyone on this planet, but I'm not Russian .

I hardly see that happening outside the realm of videogames. Two thermonuclear, chemical and biological warhead owning nations fighting for oil? I doubt it.
I don't discard the possibility for covert actions taking place but all out war between two major nations? No.

The first poster asked not to bash the US or Bush but at the same time clearly said: "well it has been always well known that russia is corrupt", which is senseless because all nations are corrupt, the corruption in contemporary Russia and the defunct USSR was more visible exactly because the Western media pushed that corruption into our eyes. I hardly see how China is less corrupt than Russia (I'd even say it is more), the difference between those two is that China, while remaining a "socialist republic" clearly took advantage of it's huge population and capability to floor the world markets with under priced, cheap produced manufactured products. It's a win-win situation for China, the "people" can rebel and at the same time the State keeps cashing in for every businessman who wants to survive and expand.

This is, of course, my opinion.

The possibility of a full scale war happening now, after the invention and spreading of nuclear weapons, is a very slim possibility. The modern way of war, as long as their are nuclear weapons, will only be against countries without nukes. However, like you said, a covert war between spec ops forces and all of that hoopla is possible, as is government sponsored terrorism.

[Manji]

The future of Russia is war with China. China needs those oil fields in Siberia desperately, and they've got the second best army in the world to do this with.

I hardly see that happening outside the realm of videogames. Two thermonuclear, chemical and biological warhead owning nations fighting for oil? I doubt it.
I don't discard the possibility for covert actions taking place but all out war between two major nations? No.

The first poster asked not to bash the US or Bush but at the same time clearly said: "well it has been always well known that russia is corrupt", which is senseless because all nations are corrupt, the corruption in contemporary Russia and the defunct USSR was more visible exactly because the Western media pushed that corruption into our eyes. I hardly see how China is less corrupt than Russia (I'd even say it is more), the difference between those two is that China, while remaining a "socialist republic" clearly took advantage of it's huge population and capability to floor the world markets with under priced, cheap produced manufactured products. It's a win-win situation for China, the "people" can rebel and at the same time the State keeps cashing in for every businessman who wants to survive and expand.

This is, of course, my opinion.

[antares24]

oh c'mon, how you can say that today russia is scary?
yes they're reforming their army but at what level they can get it?
Enough to threath Nato? I really don't think so.
The millions of men of the red army and the thousands of tanks ready to invade europe now don't exist.
In the last years russia is starting to have cash again but only thanks to oil and gas, and the oil price in the last months has even droppen.
And yes europe is dependent on their gas but with a very different degree between the various countries. And after the recents russian bad moves (that have been really stupid and have backfired), every state is busy working on differentiate energy sources, spain is building regassificator to import liquified gas from north africa, the same is happening in italy that has signed deals with algeria and lybia, france is full of nuclear plants and germany too will work to cut it's energy dependance.
This without considering that stop gas shipment would create an energy crisis in europe but will make gazprom (and it's government master) lose billions.
yes, putin now seems more a dictator than a president, the russian government is starting againg to use repressive methods and the press freedom now is a fairy tale, but if the russian are happy with this.....and if i was a russian i will be happier with a strongman than a failed state, as was russia some years ago.
However, the average russian is still poor, there's a widespread alcohol problem that is killing a lot of people every year, they have a huge demographic problem, lot of corruption, the eastern part of russia is being colonized by chinese and the country is so big that is difficult to effectively govern it....i think that if russia will manage to not lose territories or have deep internal crisis in the next 50 years they will be lucky, surely they're not a threat to us in Europe anymore, and even less to the U.S.

[humvee2800]

Once more people are using stereotypical geussess to try and answer questions never raised in this arguement. Nowehere did anyone say they felt Russia might have intentions on Nato and most people here believe that would be unlikely. If Russia did take a more aggressive policy it would probably have a harder hand in chechnya and maybe take back a few states from the old Soviet Union

[Gumpfendorfer]

The scary thing about russia is not its military, which has always been overestimated by intelligence services and goverments. The scary thing about Russia is now its money. The way Russia is being ruled now is in principle no different from when the Czar or Communist ran the country. It has always been the secret service deciding the big things. The only real exception was Stalin, but he killed his head of KGB almost every two years, before he could became a threat. The czars had their clique, and little did they actually know what was going on, the communist had theirs, Jeltsin had his family and boduguards for instance, now Putin is in power. Russia has always been ruled of the principle of clans.

Now that it will become one of the wealthiest states, the only thing you need of fear is the corruption they will spread around. That will damage our Western society and others big time. For instance in Beijing Russian maffia is buying real estate with such spreed that soon they will control large part of the city.

In Europe they play the same game, Marbella with its former mayor Gil-y-Gil, who now faces prison because of corruption, is another example. A pool of corruption is that town.

Russia only needs its military for crisis on its borders and as a strategic balance with the US and China. You can't blame them for that since the latter are playing the same game.

The money/maffia however you cannot stop from pouring in. And Russians I am afraid to say, can be ruthless. I've visited the country many times, I really like it, but for the state, people are just instrumental whoever rules the country. Always has been, always will be tragically.

[bigfootedfred]

I see it more along the lines of
China: We want oil!
Russia: we want to sell oil..

Why fight for what you can buy?
Chinas economy is more than adequate to buy all the Russian oil they need.

Not only that, it would be madness for either country to go to war with the other. There is far too much to lose, and in the end so little to gain.

from yesterdays financial express

China, Russia to sign accords, boost ties

China and Russia plan to sign agreements on resources, technology and aviation next month, underscoring closer economic ties as the neighboring states adopt freer markets. The accords including energy and mining will be concluded in Moscow on March 27 and March 28 during a trade fair, Chinese vice commerce minister Yu Guangzhou told reporters in Beijing on Wednesday. Trade between the countries rose 15% to $33.4 billion last year, Yu said. The nations that led global communism are increasing mutual dependence, tapping the world's largest deposits of oil and natural gas in Russia to fuel the fastest-growing major economy in China. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin is using soaring income from near-record energy prices to project his increased global influence.

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_f...tent_id=154918

Oh and to the Op.

Yes, it seems many 'forgot' about Russia.
Putin being the kind of man he is, wishes to remind us all,
Never forget about Russia. Putin was KGB. he knows what he wants, and he knows how to play hardball.
Just imagine the guy playing poker.

Remember The Bush admin saying 'we are worried about democracy in Russia'
Interesting absolutley nothing bad about Russia has been said since.

[Cassy]

Putin is a horrific man. Does anyone actually doubt who killed Litvinenko? The Bush administration is to blame for bogging down the West in a losing war in Iraq and allowing Iran, North Korea and Russia to be oppotunistic and take the upper hand.

[Betepok]

Putin is a horrific man.

Scary him? Nightmares? Wanna tell about this?

Does anyone actually doubt who killed Litvinenko?

Berezovskiy? Aren"t you afraid you may be the next target?

[Cassy]

Scary him? Nightmares? Wanna tell about this?
Berezovskiy? Aren"t you afraid you may be the next target?

Oh, yes, Berezovsky wanted to kill a critic of Putin. And of course he was able to do this with an extremely rare radioactive agent produced almost exclusively in Russia. Nice propaganda there, keep it up. War is peace!

[Khan Kong]

However, the average russian is still poor, there's a widespread alcohol problem that is killing a lot of people every year, they have a huge demographic problem, lot of corruption, the eastern part of russia is being colonized by chinese and the country is so big that is difficult to effectively govern it

Right. We have a lot of internal problems that Eltsin left to Putin. He has many more things to solve, than to start war.

If Russia did take a more aggressive policy it would probably have a harder hand in chechnya and maybe take back a few states from the old Soviet Union

Right again. Would have Russian been listening to insulting speeches from Georgian president, if they plannned to start war? No. Nobody would. But Russia did. Besides, Georgia prisoned Russian peacemakers regardless of all agreements. So how West can blame us that we made a little sanctions to this country? Even Russian tolerance and patience has its limits.

Now that it will become one of the wealthiest states, the only thing you need of fear is the corruption they will spread around. That will damage our Western society and others big time. For instance in Beijing Russian maffia is buying real estate with such spreed that soon they will control large part of the city.

It was Eltsin who made favourable conditions to raise criminals. West made him president, he was a lapdog of US. Western community didn't criticise him, of course - he was "democratic and liberal"!.. Now you happy to have mafia? Maybe not enough? If you want more mafia, go on! continue to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries!
Chinese mafia controls prostitution in our Far East.

[humvee2800]

Right. We have a lot of internal problems that Eltsin left to Putin. He has many more things to solve, than to start war.

interestingly War sometimes does solve those problems. Think about it, A reason for russians to stand up, a enemy to fight, perhaps a chance to weaken the russian mafia, more people, resources. On the world scale even a slightly corrupt Russia would be something to balance things out.

Right again. Would have Russian been listening to insulting speeches from Georgian president, if they plannned to start war? No. Nobody would. But Russia did. Besides, Georgia prisoned Russian peacemakers regardless of all agreements. So how West can blame us that we made a little sanctions to this country? Even Russian tolerance and patience has its limits.

Hard to understand what you are saying but I agree that a few nations need to know their place... which is inside Russia

It was Eltsin who made favourable conditions to raise criminals. West made him president, he was a lapdog of US. Western community didn't criticise him, of course - he was "democratic and liberal"!.. Now you happy to have mafia? Maybe not enough? If you want more mafia, go on! continue to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries!
Chinese mafia controls prostitution in our Far East.

Well standing corruption across Russia is also to blame but perhaps a war can fix that.

A pan-slavic federation (of sort) would benefit everyone, providing that all members would have equal voice and profit sharing not the facade known as EU.

If set up and named properly it could be immensely powerful, a name that brings forward a memory of the ideological power of the old soviet union and carefully made to look unbeauracratic but at the same time not to reminiscent of the iron curtain would be perfect

[bigfootedfred]

how West can blame us that we made a little sanctions to this country? Even Russian tolerance and patience has its limits.

We can do so, as we hypocritical in our very nature.
Whats popular in one time, is totally different in another.
But we also criticize our own governments for their failings as well.
Something Russian media cannot do.
Putin has played his part, that of Komnenos.

[Khan Kong]

Hard to understand what you are saying but I agree that a few nations need to know their place... which is inside Russia

Georgia isn't inside Russia! It's independent state like Canada for example.

interestingly War sometimes does solve those problems. Think about it, A reason for russians to stand up, a enemy to fight, perhaps a chance to weaken the russian mafia, more people, resources. On the world scale even a slightly corrupt Russia would be something to balance things out.

Not for Russia, not now. We had many casualities during wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya. We can't afford a new war. We have enough resources to use iside and to trade, so it's not an option.

Well standing corruption across Russia is also to blame but perhaps a war can fix that.

We had already war in Chechnya. And what's the result? Criminals only had a good chance to steal and sell weapons.

[burrek]

Georgia isn't inside Russia! It's independent state like Canada for example.

lol

Yeah, if I were living in one of the old soviet republics I'd be afraid. With the &^$% Russia pulled on Yushchenko one has to wonder what other stuff goes on behinds the scenes.

Seems like Russia is taking the US approach and instead of trying to take their lands it tries to control their governments.