the future looks bleak, are you prepared?

[Gelgoog]

ok im getting more and more depressed about the outlook of the future. now maybe im being a worrywort, but these are real problems.

in 15 years, the need for oil will be at an all time peak, china will be using alot more then we are, the available oil resevoirs will already be tapped, and there will be very few if no new locationss, which means the cost of gas will go up 3 or 4 times, to the point where we are paying 10-20 dollars a gallon. this means that current motor vehicles will be much to expensive to fill up, especially with gas rationing on the scale that makes the 70's look pleasent. so either they will have to outlaw anything besides motorcycles and hybrid/electrics. but not only that, shipping costs will go through the roof. it'll be to expensive to import goods and food from other nations, and almost to expensive to even have crosscountry shipping. as in trucking companies will go under. horizontal expansion ( urban areas) will be very unfeesible.

oil is just part of the problem. then you have global warming. now i dont want to get on the debate about it. but just picture this, if they are right about the current melting of the ice caps, the sea level in the next 20-50 years could rise upto 6-10 ft. this means that any city below sea level will be completely flooded displacing millions of citizens. if you look at the economic effect of Katrina, just times that by 20, and you have a very crippled economy. just the massive flood of refugees with hurt local communities trying to give aid, and unemployment will sky rocket, as the lost jobs in those cities hurt the whole nation, meaning massive layoffs plus the millions of refugees needing jobs. now ive only said about the cities below sea level, 6-10 ft of water will easily flood cities close to sea level so the problem could be much worse.

all of this doesnt include the problem we have with china, who currently owns a huge amount of usa bonds. they could cripple our economy if they chose to do so, and if the above happened, they might just have to do that. if we refuse to pay, you could have either war, or huge damage to our economic standing in the world as places refuse to trade with us. this isnt counting the effect that no trade with china means that all those buisness deals and manufacting done there will cease. that cheap labour would have to be found somewhere else, and costs would go up alot, not to mention again the fact of huge job loss.

now there are some solutions to the energy problem, for one we will have to invest in alot of new nuclear power plants ( sorry hippies its going to have to happen). plus we will need to make solar power much more efficient ( gas is currently 50% efficient, and solar power is something like 20%) so you'll start to see huge swaps of land being turned into solar gathering plants, as well as everyone having solar panels all over their roofs, people might even have to start selling excess energy if they have it to companies so they can offset the huge rise in costs of goods.

so i guess anyone else depressed? today after realizing all of this is the first time i really feel the need to start making plans for the future, possible gatherings of supplies, hording of materials, ect. we have grown in world of excess, our society has been structured in a way to accomadate this growth, but if that is ever severely hampered, who knows how bad it could really get ( pondering mad max).

ok critics come bombard me now

[Kscott]

eh, energy crisis isn't too bad. Solar Panel Cloth should be available in the not too distant future. This alone would provide more than enough energy and provide it incredibly cheaply. There are of course plenty of other methods of green energy. All of which should be feasible in the not too distant future.

Global warming, eh it happens. Remember 6-10 ft will not happen in one day, so cities will slowly adjust.(And I'm pretty sure its more like 6-10 inches, which still of course has a profound effect in itself)

And China, they need us too much, we need them too much. I wouldn't count on conflict.

[Felix]

Geothermal plants are a good, reliable and consistent source of renewable energy. People forget about them because:

a) They don't have a charismatic look to them like wind farms and dams do, so the oil lobbies and their puppets don't slag them off as a "blight on the landscape",

b) They don't have a charismatic look to them like wind farms and dams do, so the green politicians who want to reduce oil-dependence can't get pictures taken next to highly recognisable features of the landscape,

c) The French do well off them.

Just for a crackpot theory

[Big War Bird]

Scheuch13,
You are living in the wealthiest, healthiest time in world history and there is no indication that this will not continue. There is no oil crisis, and there never will be. There is no such thing as peak oil. You are being frightened by your lack economic understanding.

[Tom Paine]

BWB, there will be peak oil unless firms adopt an unprecedented forward thinking approach to their policies; oil usage is increasing, oil is not, and oil usage will hit a point where there is not enough oil to supply all that it is wanted for; firms cannot change over quickly enough, really, and nor can governments, to prevent at least some shortterm problems.

[removeduser_426582376423734]

In 15 years, you could be dead. To me the future's pretty bright.

You could call it Orange. (That wasnt advertising, no sir)

[Big War Bird]

BWB, there will be peak oil unless firms adopt an unprecedented forward thinking approach to their policies; oil usage is increasing, oil is not, and oil usage will hit a point where there is not enough oil to supply all that it is wanted for; firms cannot change over quickly enough, really, and nor can governments, to prevent at least some shortterm problems.

In reality, the factors that go into supply and demand only change by small percentages each year. People forget that as prices rise, demand falls, demand falls by decreasing low value trips and turning the thermostat down a few degrees in the short tun.

As oil prices go up ther is a powerful incentive to developing alternatives to oil. Nuclear, wind, solar, coal, hydraulic power can easily replace oil in energy production at the right price.

[Freddie]

now there are some solutions to the energy problem, for one we will have to invest in alot of new nuclear power plants ( sorry hippies its going to have to happen). plus we will need to make solar power much more efficient ( gas is currently 50% efficient, and solar power is something like 20%) so you'll start to see huge swaps of land being turned into solar gathering plants, as well as everyone having solar panels all over their roofs, people might even have to start selling excess energy if they have it to companies so they can offset the huge rise in costs of goods.

I posted an article about our future energy needs about 18 months ago, basically we might be saved by new technology in the form of Nuclear fusion generators. The first one has already been given funding and is being built in France I believe. If this project is successful we can roll out Nuclear fusion reactors across the globe.

The advantages of this technology are as follows,

Abundant Fuel Supply
The major fuel, deuterium, may be readily extracted from ordinary water, which is available to all nations.

No Risk of a Nuclear Accident
The amounts of deuterium and tritium in the fusion reaction zone will be so small that a large uncontrolled release of energy would be impossible. In the event of a malfunction, the plasma would strike the walls of its containment vessel and cool.

No Air Pollution
Since no fossil fuels are used, there will be no release of chemical combustion products because they will not be produced.

No High-level Nuclear Waste
Similarly, there will be no fission products formed to present a handling and disposal problem. Radioactivity will be produced by neutrons interacting with the reactor structure, but careful materials selection is expected to minimize the handling and ultimate disposal of activated materials.

No Generation of Weapons Material
Another significant advantage is that the materials and by-products of fusion are not suitable for use in the production of nuclear weapons.

Summary
The abundance of raw materials, their wide distribution, and the environmental acceptability of fusion are augmented by the expectation that fusion energy will be an economical source of electricity generation.

[Tom Paine]

Of course, we still need to make sure it works; thus, the French tests.

[Roy Batty]

Nyup, nyup! I got dem dere cans 'o corn in my cellar fer moonshine and ten thousand rounds er thirty-odd so I can hyunt! I'm all set fer da post-apocoleeps.

But in all honesty, I do believe that change is coming and not for the better. The world is becoming more and more sociopathic and energy is being wasted on all the wrong things. There is no such thing as "free energy" and we need to seriously look at how we waste what we have.

In reality, the factors that go into supply and demand only change by small percentages each year. People forget that as prices rise, demand falls, demand falls by decreasing low value trips and turning the thermostat down a few degrees in the short tun.

As oil prices go up ther is a powerful incentive to developing alternatives to oil. Nuclear, wind, solar, coal, hydraulic power can easily replace oil in energy production at the right price.

That sounds like an American or European demographic you've looked at. The biggest increase in oil consumption is in the form of China, who are expected to surpass the United States in consumption by the year 2015. I assume you've read this article. Don't worry, I won't try and convince you there is such a thing as peak oil.

Oil prices aren't going up and won't go up til very close to when we run out, really, since governments like the Saudis can break open their reserves and start selling...

Unless Saudi Arabia has falsified the amount of oil they have in their reserve to improve their economic standing and value to the U.S.

Anyway, I'll see you after Judgement Day! Watch out fer zombies!

[General Dissaray]

You first problem is some thing I am counting on it a way. I am looking at entering the Equine industry, that is horses for those of you that don't konw your Latin so well. Silly I know to think that no oil could be good for me, but if your car wont go for lack of gass a horse works well with out it. Can we say job security? But I am sure some one will **** that up by coming up with some inginous and supper cool thing to make it so we don't need oil any more, but only time can tell.

As for this global worming biseness, well I have been feeling a chill as of late may be turning up the thremostat would be a good thing.

Then there is that China problem. Hard to say realy, they might sink us. But they stand to louse more if they do. A lot of the bissenes is durived from the US as I understand it. Manufacturing and what not. So sinking our boat would efectively kill most of there biseness power. Not to say they can't look elcewhere for manufacturing orders.

I have always liked nucular power, it sounds neet and futuristic you know? and I don't think you will see land being eaten up for solar farms. Firstly the curant tech dose not produce enuf power for the size the whole thing is to make it economical. They are working on these neat little gizmos called nanocristals that have the potental to get 80% eficiantcy out of the sun's rays so that could solve that. Puting them on the land is a silly idea at best. That land can be used for better things I asure you. Sence the oil industry will be dead by the time you see this being seriously addresed they will have all of those off shore oil rigs. If you have seen one of those you know they are basicaly big tables sitting in the ocian. They all ready have the conduits for the powerlines to the land, just refit the pipelines and youre done, and they won't be good for much elce so why not stick merors and panels on them?

If there is one thing history has tought me it is this: Man kind has an extremly large capacity for adaptation, it just takes a major kick in the ass to get him going. We will get by and then we will thrive. It may be uncomftroble for a time, or at least less comftroble than most of us are now, but we will do what we allways do; keep on keepin' on. Eather that or we all die and there is nothing to worry about. IF that is the cais, and we all die, know this: We will leave one hell of a mark on this planet.

[Saladin45]

I'm not really that worried about that.

I'll always be ready to pick up a sword and go MT2W on someone if modernerity starts going downhill.

[Tom Paine]

Oil prices aren't going up and won't go up til very close to when we run out, really, since governments like the Saudis can break open their reserves and start selling...

[Freddie]

Oil prices aren't going up and won't go up til very close to when we run out, really, since governments like the Saudis can break open their reserves and start selling...

So you don’t believe we will have found an alternative by that time? Personally I believe we will always have oil (it’s not like the world has stopped producing oil it’s just that we extract it faster then it’s being replenished), it's just that our dependency on it will become less and less as new technology such as nuclear fusion becomes available.

[Big War Bird]

Oil prices aren't going up and won't go up til very close to when we run out, really, since governments like the Saudis can break open their reserves and start selling...

Annual Average
Crude Oil Prices
1946-Present
U.S. Average
(in $/bbl.)
Year Average Nominal Inflation Adjusted
1946 $1.63 $16.68
1947 $2.16 $19.60
1948 $2.77 $23.38
1949 $2.77 $23.61
1950 $2.77 $23.36
1951 $2.77 $21.65
1952 $2.77 $21.17
1953 $2.92 $22.10
1954 $2.99 $22.59
1955 $2.93 $22.17
1956 $2.94 $21.96
1957 $3.00 $22.66
1958 $3.01 $21.09
1959 $3.00 $20.88
1960 $2.91 $19.98
1961 $2.85 $19.35
1962 $2.85 $19.12
1963 $3.00 $19.29
1964 $2.88 $19.63
1965 $3.01 $19.37
1966 $3.10 $19.38
1967 $3.12 $18.98
1968 $3.18 $18.52
1969 $3.32 $18.37
1970 $3.39 $17.72
1971 $3.60 $18.04
1972 $3.60 $17.47
1973 $4.75 $21.53
1974 $9.35 $38.42
1975 $7.67 $46.01
1976 $13.10 $46.72
1977 $14.40 $48.19
1978 $14.95 $46.53
1979 $25.10 $69.51
1980 $37.42 $92.26
1981 $35.75 $79.89
1982 $31.83 $66.97
1983 $29.08 $59.26
1984 $28.75 $56.17
1985 $26.92 $50.77
1986 $14.44 $26.72
1987 $17.75 $31.69
1988 $14.87 $25.55
1989 $18.33 $29.99
1990 $23.19 $35.91
1991 $20.20 $30.10
1992 $19.25 $27.84
1993 $16.75 $23.54
1994 $15.66 $21.43
1995 $16.75 $22.31
1996 $20.46 $26.45
1997 $18.64 $23.57
1998 $11.91 $14.83
1999 $16.56 $20.12
2000 $27.39 $32.26
2001 $23.00 $26.37
2002 $22.81 $25.71
2003 $27.69 $30.55
2004 $37.66 $40.42
2005 $50.04 $51.94
2006 $60.40 $60.78

From 1946 to its high in 1980 the price of oil increased 550%. This rise in prices spurred interest and development of alternative fuels. Since that time oil prices, even accounting for recent highs overall have decreased slightly. We have already been working on alternatives to oil for a quarter century.

[Elric von Rabenfels]

I just say:

"You can be dead tommorow, so enjoy today!"

[Gelgoog]

even if just one of those events above happened it would hurt the economy badly, together it would cripple it. and yes oil prices will skyrocket long before we are totally out. you have those nations who have the last stock either being threatened by military invasion, or hording their supply and throwing prices way up. not to mention that once most of the major resevoirs dry up, the remaining oil must first be located. this costs tons of money, and is usually only marginally successful. also there is the problem that once supply starts dwindling you will have to force people to change their lifestyles which is very hard. when i lived in spain when i was younger it wasnt uncommon for people to siffon out your gas when you were asleep or away from you vehicle for a while, just imagine this when prices get high. plus when you consider dwindling supply you have to look at who has control of it. the major resevoirs are in russia, alaska, venezuella, and the middle east. in the first two especially russia , its fairly difficult to get at the oil and the climate sucks.

im sure we will find some alternate sources of energy, but the problem is how readily they are available and adopted in a major sense. if we run out of oil and 10 years later have fusion, that wont help us much as the world economy will already be trashed, and if you havent forgotten, lack of jobs, food, and security = massive headache in the form of societal anarchy. running out of oil without any kind of equal substitute would be just as damaging as an biological epidemic like the super small pox, or enfluenza.

[Anachronist]

Am i prepared, no i am not.

[Elric von Rabenfels]

You can´t be fully prepared for the future, we will never know for sure what will happen next.

[humvee2800]

America and Canada don't need to worry as much, Canada has oil sands which, although more expensive then taking it right out of the ground, are still quite reasonable, and can support ourselves and america for literally hundreds of years. Also with the use of hybrid cars and other such vehicles our need of oil will slowly decline... hopefully