Brainstorming AI changes in RPGs

[chriscase]

I spent a while trying to figure out where this should go, and this seems like the best place (though I don't see any other threads like this here in the TD).

For some time I have had a few peeves about the way NPC AI and world-building dynamics work in my most beloved games. I know that recent advances in AI are likely to bring about (mostly incremental) changes in new titles, but it also seems to me we should be on the cusp of the proverbial paradigm shift. I mean a totally new gaming experience.

Here's an example of what I mean:
If you've played enough Elder Scrolls (or pretty much any RPG/MMO for that matter), the mechanics of a camp, spawn, and aggro range are certainly going to be familiar. Suppose, for example, you are a low level character adventuring based from a human settlement. A typical quest line suited to your level may point you to a bandit camp a modest jog from town where some bothersome villains are causing trouble. Your quest giver instructs you to go out there and "take care of the problem".

Now if you are in a solo game, you pretty much have a couple options open to you - you can try to be scrappy and sneak around this camp and pull individual enemies one at a time - assuming you are just powerful enough to defeat exactly one of them in a given combat. Or you could wait until you are much more powerful and can basically power through the entire camp in one go. There is a middle ground too where you may be able to handle, say, two enemies at once.

In the usual Elder Scrolls style gameplay, this turns into a repetitive exploit of aggro range. Every NPC has an aggro range; You sit just outside of it until you are ready to pull that enemy, then step forward just a bit and maybe do a ranged attack, see the enemy become aggressive and start running out to attack you, then pull back to a safe spot to fight that one enemy (or two if the hostile brought a friend based on range). Mop those up and creep a bit further in, finding the next apparently oblivious enemy, repeat. Defeating the camp becomes a bit like a game of Operation. Control exactly who sees you at a given time, path your way carefully in and out of the puzzle, dismantling each interlocking piece, until the entire structure has fallen apart.

As satisfying as this can be at first, after a while it starts to feel hollow. Especially when you can repeat it night after night. I mean, imagine if this were a camp inhabited by real people. You have guards up patrolling your perimeter and one morning you wake up and every guard has been murdered. OK maybe you would spend a day or two trying to figure out what happened and maybe post some guards in more protected areas. But those new guards would certainly be aware of what had befallen their predecessors - literally the night before. Now suppose you wake up on day two and the entire second string of guards has also been killed. At this point there is a very high probability that one of two things will happen on night three when the player shows up, hoping to stealthily take down more guards: Either there will be absolutely nobody there, or every person in that camp will be setting their own trap, expecting to do battle.

Of course this type of mechanic exists not only because it enables game designers to make a reasonable approximation of a bandit camp that players can repeatedly take down, but because in the absence of a consistent way for players to perform these types of exploits, it's not really clear how players can grind their way through the trappings of an RPG - more kills, more xp, more loot. If we want a more realistic, immersive, and ultimately rewarding experience (I do), we have to envision a much different set of activities and strategies the player can employ.

This is why I think we are due for a real paradigm shift in RPGs when something approaching modern AI is embraced fully by the RPG genre.

Thoughts?