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Thread: Armenia - Azerbaijan

  1. #1
    alhoon's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default Armenia - Azerbaijan

    I would like to open a discussion about the recent events between Armenia / Azerbaijan about Nagorno Karabakh.

    https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-...abakh-conflict

    The gist:
    Following Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive and occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19, separatist authorities announced that the ethnic Armenian enclave would dissolve on January 1, 2024. By September 30rd, over 100K Armenians have fled for Armenia (80% or so of the population).

    In my opinion what happens there is a crime of great proportions. Armenians are (again) ethnically cleansed. Azerbaijan should face strong sanctions and be pressured to accept Armenian police and local officials there and the return of the Armenians to their homes and stop any plans to absorb N-K. It should be autonomous.

    What do you think? What should the international response be?


    EDIT: A thread about the previous war from 3 years ago can be found here.

    EDIT2: For a very different side of this debate, please check this post.
    While I don't agree with everything there, there's apparently some hard evidence that the Armenians were not exactly chivalrous in 1992.
    Last edited by alhoon; October 02, 2023 at 07:54 AM.
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  2. #2

    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Of course we need another Thread in that Issue one is not enough:

    https://www.twcenter.net/forums/showthread.php?807424-Azerbaijan-Armenia-war-over-Nagorno-Karabakh

  3. #3

    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    What do you think?
    I think Western leaders will go as far as expressing “deep concern” regarding “the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh”.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by Nebaki View Post
    Of course we need another Thread in that Issue one is not enough:

    https://www.twcenter.net/forums/showthread.php?807424-Azerbaijan-Armenia-war-over-Nagorno-Karabakh
    Well, I was looking for that specific thread and I didn't find it. Also, since it is 3 years old thread, I will keep this one, but I will put that thread in the OP
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    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Empires dissolving are a mess. Purely logical its clear Armenia screwed up. It got free ride as Russia's friend back in the day and never settled affairs back when Putin was not distracted with shall we say his own ill conceived plans of the now. It also failed to notice or plan for what was pretty obvious Azerbaijan had more people, more money via oil and picked a better friend in Turkey. Compare the US which should have had it butt handed to it in the war of 1812 but Britain was just a bit too tired and the US won on the Great Lakes. Armenia walked into this with eyes wide open shut and thought Russia was a sugar daddy. Its hard to have too much wailing and sympathy. Armenia had more or less most of the cards after the first war they should have seen to a proper settlement. North and South Korea can sit on frozen conflict because each has a solid great power in the game at their back - Amermnia failed to notice it did not.

    In my opinion what happens there is a crime of great proportions.
    You do realize Azerbaijanis were expelled in larger numbers when Armenia won round one back in the day?

    Also N-K is recognized as part of
    Azerbaijan so it kinda in it rights to take control and control of bit Armenia was squatting outside of the N-K.

    Realistically given how easily Azerbaijan has been handing Armenia their A$$ on a plater one wonders if they adjust the border to connect both their whole country its clear Armenia has no ability to stop them and nobody cares. Russia is busy. The US and Europe have zero interest in disrupting oil and gas from Azerbaijan... call it a necessary humanitarian corridor w/o annexing it today and nobody will care.
    Last edited by conon394; October 01, 2023 at 01:54 PM.
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  6. #6

    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    I would like to open a discussion about the recent events between Armenia / Azerbaijan about Nagorno Karabakh.
    https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-...abakh-conflict
    The gist:
    Following Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive and occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19, separatist authorities announced that the ethnic Armenian enclave would dissolve on January 1, 2024. By September 30rd, over 100K Armenians have fled for Armenia (80% or so of the population).
    In my opinion what happens there is a crime of great proportions. Armenians are (again) ethnically cleansed. Azerbaijan should face strong sanctions and be pressured to accept Armenian police and local officials there and the return of the Armenians to their homes and stop any plans to absorb N-K. It should be autonomous.
    What do you think? What should the international response be?
    EDIT: A thread about the previous war from 3 years ago can be found here.
    What an amazingly ignorant, biased and false take on the matter. Your post is an intellectual crime of great proportions.

    The real gist is that Azerbaijan just ended a conflict that saw Armenians illegally occupying over a great chunk of Azerbaijani lands through massacres and forced expulsion of almost up to a million Azerbaijanis. The way Azerbaijanis treated them today in return is much more humane. Armenians of NKR are not leaving because Azerbaijan is forcing them out but because their own Armenian leaders are calling them to leave. If there is an ethnic cleansing of Armenians in the region its done by Armenians themselves.
    Last edited by PointOfViewGun; October 01, 2023 at 03:11 PM.
    The Armenian Issue

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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post

    You do realize [COLOR=#202122]Azerbaijanis were expelled in larger numbers when Armenia won round one back in the day?
    No, I didn't realize that actually. Do you have sources?

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post

    Also N-K is recognized as part of Azerbaijan so it kinda in it rights to take control and control of bit Armenia was squatting outside of the N-K.
    That N-K is part of Azerbaijan doesn't give it the right to attack the corridors they had agreed on in 2020. Azerbaijan broke the truce and conquered more land. Nor it gives it the right to take punitive action on the Armenian people that lives there.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    What an amazingly ignorant, biased and false take on the matter. Your post is an intellectual crime of great proportions.

    The real gist is that Azerbaijan just ended a conflict that saw Armenians illegally occupying over a great chunk of Azerbaijani lands through massacres and forced expulsion of almost up to a million Azerbaijanis. The way Azerbaijanis treated them today in return is much more humane. Armenians of NKR are not leaving because Azerbaijan is forcing them out but because their own Armenian leaders are calling them to leave. If there is an ethnic cleansing of Armenians in the region its done by Armenians themselves.
    I am inclined to disagree but not completely. Indeed the Armenian leaders told the Armenians to leave. But for 80% of the Armenian population to leave part of their ancestral land simply because their leaders told them so, quite clearly implies the average Armenian is very concerned about his or her wellbeing.

    You also mention massacres and expulsion of up to a million Azerbaijanis.
    1. When? How?
    2. Two wrongs don't make a right. Perhaps, if you are correct (source?) the Azeris are treating the Armenians less badly than how the Armenians treated the Azeris. That doesn't mean they treat them properly.
    Last edited by alhoon; October 01, 2023 at 04:58 PM.
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  8. #8

    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    That N-K is part of Azerbaijan doesn't give it the right to attack the corridors they had agreed on in 2020. Azerbaijan broke the truce and conquered more land. Nor it gives it the right to take punitive action on the Armenian people that lives there.

    I am inclined to disagree but not completely. Indeed the Armenian leaders told the Armenians to leave. But for 80% of the Armenian population to leave part of their ancestral land simply because their leaders told them so, quite clearly implies the average Armenian is very concerned about his or her wellbeing.

    You also mention massacres and expulsion of up to a million Azerbaijanis.
    1. When? How?
    2. Two wrongs don't make a right. Perhaps, if you are correct (source?) the Azeris are treating the Armenians less badly than how the Armenians treated the Azeris. That doesn't mean they treat them properly.
    You clearly come to this discussion with claims that has zero knowledge in them. It's often paralyzing to even consider responding to such level of lack of accuracy. Azerbaijan didn't attack a corridor. The truce wasn't even honoured by the Armenians. The NKR Armenians didn't yield their heavy weaponry and Armenia did nothing to open the corridor between Nakhichevan and Azerbaijan. Back in 1992, Armenians won. NKR was established with Armenia occupying seven other Azerbaijani districts neighbouring Karabakh. With massacres like that in Khojaly up to a million Azerbaijanis fled Karabakh and the surrounding regions occupied by Armenia. Back then Armenians gave 10 hours to Azerbaijanis to leave for good. After their leave much of Azerbaijani presence in the occupied regions were completely erased. The funny part is that Azerbaijan will start to move back a portion of those Azerbaijanis native to the liberated regions and the Armenians will start to accuse Azerbaijan of resettlement to change the ethnic make up of the land. France24 will make an article on Armenian feelings and you'll open a thread on how evil Azerbaijanis are.

    From what we have seen so far Azerbaijanis are treating them very properly. During the operation itself even Pashinyan was pointing out how civilian Armenians were not being targeted by Azerbaijan. UNHCR reports that there have been no recorded incidents so far. Interviews made with NKR Armenians in Armenia show them testifying that Azerbaijanis were even nice to them. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan called on for all Armenians to stay, but that they won't hold anyone by force. They opened registration portals online and offline for Armenians to get their Azerbaijani passports. They even talked about establishing a new system so that they can have more local rule. This is worlds apart from what Azerbaijanis had to live through after Armenians took over the land. If it wasn't for the NKR leaders scaring people a lot more people would choose to stay. This was not Azerbaijanis conducting an ethnic cleansing. It was Armenians doing it.

    From the start you see this as Azerbaijan occupying some land which shows the clear bias. It's likely a product of the propaganda you're fed in your country's media.
    The Armenian Issue

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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Armenians were hoping and praying the Russians would save them. Instead they were abandoned. Russian influence continues to die. Armenia unfortunately doesn't have any neighbors or benefactors willing to support them. The issue of NKR has been solved for the time being. Unless the Russians start helping, I don't care the Armenians ever getting this territory back.

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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Empires dissolving are a mess. Purely logical its clear Armenia screwed up. It got free ride as Russia's friend back in the day and never settled affairs back when Putin was not distracted with shall we say his own ill conceived plans of the now. It also failed to notice or plan for what was pretty obvious Azerbaijan had more people, more money via oil and picked a better friend in Turkey. Compare the US which should have had it butt handed to it in the war of 1812 but Britain was just a bit too tired and the US won on the Great Lakes. Armenia walked into this with eyes wide open shut and thought Russia was a sugar daddy. Its hard to have too much wailing and sympathy. Armenia had more or less most of the cards after the first war they should have seen to a proper settlement. North and South Korea can sit on frozen conflict because each has a solid great power in the game at their back - Amermnia failed to notice it did not.



    You do realize Azerbaijanis were expelled in larger numbers when Armenia won round one back in the day?

    Also N-K is recognized as part of
    Azerbaijan so it kinda in it rights to take control and control of bit Armenia was squatting outside of the N-K.

    Realistically given how easily Azerbaijan has been handing Armenia their A$$ on a plater one wonders if they adjust the border to connect both their whole country its clear Armenia has no ability to stop them and nobody cares. Russia is busy. The US and Europe have zero interest in disrupting oil and gas from Azerbaijan... call it a necessary humanitarian corridor w/o annexing it today and nobody will care.
    Wow. I guess invasion is fine after all. Unless it is Russia doing the invasion.
    Armenians, of course, being the victims in arguably the second worst genocide ever, should just sit and take it since "US/Europe doesn't care".
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Wow. I guess invasion is fine after all. Unless it is Russia doing the invasion.
    Armenians, of course, being the victims in arguably the second worst genocide ever, should just sit and take it since "US/Europe doesn't care".
    What can they reasonably do? Are sanctions going to stop Azerbaijan from continuing to occupy NKR?

    You can blame the West all you want. At the end of the day the nation who could help the Armenians is Russia. Yet they get no blame for abandoning their own ally.

  12. #12

    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Wow. I guess invasion is fine after all. Unless it is Russia doing the invasion.
    Armenians, of course, being the victims in arguably the second worst genocide ever, should just sit and take it since "US/Europe doesn't care".
    Azerbaijan getting back Karabakh is like Ukraine getting back Donbas. Can you invade your own land?


    Quote Originally Posted by Vanoi View Post
    What can they reasonably do? Are sanctions going to stop Azerbaijan from continuing to occupy NKR?
    You can blame the West all you want. At the end of the day the nation who could help the Armenians is Russia. Yet they get no blame for abandoning their own ally.
    Who in their right mind would sanction a state for exerting authority over its own land?
    The Armenian Issue

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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Who in their right mind would sanction a state for exerting authority over its own land?
    Plenty of countries who literally do it all the time in the name of human rights. Venezuela , North Korea, Syria, ect are examples of countries sanctioned due to the very way the exert authority over their territory.It may be Azeri land but that doesn't mean other countries are going to accept the way Azerbaijan re-took it's land or the results of it. Don't be mistaken. Plenty of Western politicians from the EU to the US don't approve of Azerbaijan's actions.

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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Wow. I guess invasion is fine after all. Unless it is Russia doing the invasion.
    Armenians, of course, being the victims in arguably the second worst genocide ever, should just sit and take it since "US/Europe doesn't care".
    You are twisting my point. As noted already Azerbaijan is simply restore its control of its internationally recognized territory. Armenia was the original aggressor in this situation and simply planned poorly of keeping what they took. I don't why the Armenian geocide matters in this context.
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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    What do you think? What should the international response be?
    I don't know what it should be, but I can tell you what it will be. Nothing.

    Azerbaijan is absolutely essential to the EU right now as an energy source, since we removed Russia from the picture. In other words, we are too busy caring for what happens to Ukrainians, because that's perpetrated by the evil empire of evil (Russia), to worry about what happens to Armenians, because that's perpetrated by our good and dependable partner (Azerbaijan). Which demonstrates decisively that it is who commits an act that matters rather than the act itself.

    To summarise:
    - Armenians are screwed... not that anyone cares
    - The hypocrisy of the west is exposed yet again for all to see... not that anyone cares

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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    - The hypocrisy of the west is exposed yet again for all to see... not that anyone cares
    Almost all of us worry or are embarrassed by the pragmatic/realpolitik of the West at one time or another, and lately many are concerned only with criticizing the evil West.

    On topic: a matter that is too complex for "the West" to now declare itself a defender of any of the parties.
    Last edited by mishkin; October 02, 2023 at 07:01 AM.

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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by mishkin View Post
    Almost all of us worry or are embarrassed by the pragmatic/realpolitik of the West at one time or another, and lately many are concerned only with criticizing the evil West.
    I think you are giving people too much credit here. Almost all? Really?

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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    - Armenians are screwed... not that anyone cares
    Yes but they more or less screwed themselves in this case

    - The hypocrisy of the west is exposed yet again for all to see... not that anyone cares
    I don't see any hypocrisy.
    Last edited by conon394; October 02, 2023 at 07:52 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  19. #19
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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    From the start you see this as Azerbaijan occupying some land which shows the clear bias. It's likely a product of the propaganda you're fed in your country's media.
    I do, because I think Armenia should have kept that place because of history etc. etc.

    That said:


    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Back in 1992, Armenians won. NKR was established with Armenia occupying seven other Azerbaijani districts neighbouring Karabakh. With massacres like that in Khojaly up to a million Azerbaijanis fled Karabakh and the surrounding regions occupied by Armenia. Back then Armenians gave 10 hours to Azerbaijanis to leave for good. After their leave much of Azerbaijani presence in the occupied regions were completely erased.

    [...]
    From what we have seen so far Azerbaijanis are treating them very properly. During the operation itself even Pashinyan was pointing out how civilian Armenians were not being targeted by Azerbaijan. UNHCR reports that there have been no recorded incidents so far. Interviews made with NKR Armenians in Armenia show them testifying that Azerbaijanis were even nice to them. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan called on for all Armenians to stay, but that they won't hold anyone by force. They opened registration portals online and offline for Armenians to get their Azerbaijani passports. They even talked about establishing a new system so that they can have more local rule. This is worlds apart from what Azerbaijanis had to live through after Armenians took over the land. If it wasn't for the NKR leaders scaring people a lot more people would choose to stay. This was not Azerbaijanis conducting an ethnic cleansing. It was Armenians doing it.
    I dispute much of what you say here (see below) but not the BBC links of the massacre, which I was not aware of. Yes, the Armenians apparently have been buttholes.

    What I dispute:
    - 1 million refugees in 1992. Source? How did 1 million people even live in that small area? It is not big.

    - The UNHCR reports: "Just the previous day, the ICRC [=red cross] had transferred nearly 200 bodies – people who had died from either the accident this week or recent fighting." So... no, there has been deaths by fighting. Pashinyan is an Armenian politician but he may want to prevent panic. That he says "At the moment we don't think there's threat" certainly carries weight but I am not 100% convinced. If I was the brother of one of the 169 women or children killed 10-11 years ago or father of one of the 440 men, perhaps I would be out for blood and in that case, I wouldn't be telling my government. <=== I do not condone nor support honor-killings and revenge. But they happen.

    - A twitter interview doesn't count. (Pashinyan does though, even though I don't think he's 100% certain as said before).

    That said, as you seem much more knowledgable on the situation and it is frankly eye-opening to speak with someone that hasn't been in the same echo chamber as we are (nobody here knows about massacres in the 90s or expulsions of Azeris):
    Do you think the Armenians will return to NKR later when things calm down? I.e. do you think that the "come take your passports, we won't hurt you" will remain in place for some time?

    I still don't think the Azeris are the most humane invaders ever and I DO see that as an invasion after Armenia reclaimed part of its land... but it is certainly not as bad as I expected and you are right that Azeris have also been in the area for centuries (not as many centuries as the Armenians, obvi) so for NKR to have ... 90% or so Armenians is suspect as hell. You don't get that much homogeneity in an enclave in Caucasus without some... drastic measures.


    EDIT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_...o-Karabakh_War
    The Azeris and the Armenians have been massacring one another. Hundreds of thousands Azeris and Armenias have been expelled. The numbers of dead civilians are in the 10s of thousands.
    It has been, literally, a poop-show. Bush1 has major responsibilities for this (USA was the sole Superpower and he had happily took credit for the "non-violent" collapse of the USSR - so equivalently he should be held responsible for the poop-shows).
    According to wikipedia, with neither country yet signatory to treaties, torture, mutilation and medieval war practices were perpetrated by both sides.

    "An estimated 400,000 Armenians living in Azerbaijan fled to Armenia or Russia and a further 30,000 came from Karabakh.[160] Many of those who left Karabakh returned after the war ended.[161] An estimated 655,000 Azerbaijanis were displaced from the fighting including those from both Armenia and Karabakh. Various other ethnic groups living in Karabakh were also forced to live in refugee camps built by both the Azerbaijani and Iranian governments."
    Last edited by alhoon; October 02, 2023 at 08:03 AM.
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
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  20. #20
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    Default Re: Armenia - Azerbaijan

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Yes but they more or less screwed themselves in this case
    Oh really? How come? For daring to exercise their right of self-determination? While going against the wishes of a "valuable partner" rather than... let's say Serbia?

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    I don't see any hypocrisy.
    I can't say I'm surprised. We all have our blind spots. It is there though and boy is it massive.

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