Donald Trump's presidential campaign has officially started

[alhoon]

As many of you would be aware, Donald Trump is again running for PotUS.

However, the campaign took off today. <== please stay with me, I will give my reasoning why I say that.

Trump today, following the steps and tactics that catapulted him to the front of a crowded field of Republicans in 2015 and to the presidency in 2016, opened up with a controversy to take the airwaves (thus, I say the campaign took off today). In a rant on tweeter about the "stolen elections" Trump suggests a number of things, including suspending some articles of the constitution.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Now, aside of Trump being a sore loser which is not a secret, we have what we were used to: strange rants coming at 4 am, that stir controversy that will be followed by more and more and more controversy.
Trump again will be everywhere, getting billions of free air time.

Sure, posting THIS while you are investigated for inciting a coup / attack on the capitol is certainly not wise. One accused for murder should not be going about on how it was the right thing to do to kill the victim.
But Trump is not exactly known for his temperance and wisdom. And this WILL give him a lot of hours of coverage. It follows on the wings of the Kayne West / Fuentes scandal and will soon make those "bygones". If things go as I expect, this controversy will be followed by a different one in a week or two. All the way to ... well, at least 2025. Whether he wins or loses.


So, I would like to discuss a few things:

- Trump's not flirting with authoritarianism anymore. He is towards the end of the 3rd date.
If he is elected he will openly try to subvert the democratic institutions by rewriting them and you can be sure that if elected he will try to legalize a 3rd term for him because he deserves it and the first one was stolen etc.

- Trump will successfully get hours and hours of free airwave, sucking the oxygen from the room and making everything about him. Not the best strategy against an unpopular president like Biden, but Trump is not the best tactician. The whole thing is an ego trip anyway.

- Part of the reason he stoked this controversy (and others) is intentional: better to be talked badly than forgotten. With other people making controversy, Kayne West in the example above but I am sure more people will make unhinged actions and comments, Trump wants to dominate.


And remember: A ton of people from those accusing him in 2015 and pretending to be Never-trumpers were quick to jump into the Trump train once he won. Graham, Romney, Cruz and more. What do you think?

[Coughdrop addict]

It's no surprise Trump supporters love the idea of a Trump dictatorship since they prefer criminality to law & order.

The government should offer every Trump supporter $10K tax free to renounce their citizenship and leave the country. We'd still come out ahead in taxpayer dollars with much less spent on ER visits for overdoses and gun accidents, STI's and unplanned pregnancies, disability fraud, prisons, and much much more. The massive reduction in violent crime alone would easily be worth it.

[swabian]

- Part of the reason he stoked this controversy (and others) is intentional: better to be talked badly than forgotten. With other people making controversy, Kayne West in the example above but I am sure more people will make unhinged actions and comments, Trump wants to dominate.

He absoultely wants to, but the democratic institutions in the US are powerful and no potential despot can rise from this system, unless the majority of the population really wants it. The mid term elections have shown that this is not the case. He is now the black sheep loser among Republicans. They repeat with deserved pleasure the word "loser" that he has so often implemented, like he was still a dimwhitted college bully that got bought into Ivy by dad's grace. Someone like this can be an a-hole in private or at worst in a company, but a country as important as the USA really has to have representatives who are actually dignified and competent enough so as to be not a complete burden to their advisors.

Prediction: He's obviously going to candidate no matter the rejections from all sides. He's the biggest loser, even for GOP's. Do not fear, he has little charisma and no intellectually redeeming characteristic at all. The US can shrug this clown of with ease.

[alhoon]

Prediction: He's obviously going to candidate no matter the rejections from all sides. He's the biggest loser, even for GOP's. Do not fear, he has little charisma and no intellectually redeeming characteristic at all. The US can shrug this clown of with ease.

We said the same in 2016.
Biden's popularity is lockstep with Trump's. If Trump died in a car accident, ANY other Republican would have quite an easy time becoming PotUS in 2024. The way things go for Biden, only Trump has a good chance to lose against him in 2024.

HOWEVER, if the Republicans don't nominate Trump, he will make a 3rd party and lead them to an easy defeat.

The best possible outcome for the Republicans is if Trump is unable to run for the next few years without them taking actions to oppose him. If Trump suffers a stroke that leaves him completely unable to run, or dies, the chances that whomever succeeds him becomes PotUS are high.

Also, unless Biden reverses his unpopularity, Trump has a decent chance to win in 2024.

[mishkin]

the democratic party does not consider presenting another candidate?

[alhoon]

the democratic party does not consider presenting another candidate?

Some fresh person that people haven't been bored to death with, a vanilla democrat if you want, would have a better chance than Biden, but Biden's popularity will help to drug such a person down. But if it is someone else vs Trump, I expect Trump to lose.

Honestly, take a look at the democratic governors and big-city mayors that are below 55. Find a good and popular one without significant baggage. Nominate that one. Win.
Same for the Republicans, actually. Which would lead to Ron DeSantis.

Looking at this: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...rnor-rankings/

Steve Bullock or John Bel Edwards would be well placed to take on Trump. They are not unpopular with conservatives in their states either.

Personally, I don't agree with everything they have done or promote but I am not a citizen and I would vote for such a person in Greece because I disagree with them less than most others.
Honestly, they seem people the Republican party could live with, while the majority of democrats would approve. Not 100% approve but approve.

[Coughdrop addict]

Trump now selling trading cards of himself as a superhero. Only $99! What a deal!

https://archive.vn/LGIiu

[Roma_Victrix]

If he is elected he will openly try to subvert the democratic institutions by rewriting them and you can be sure that if elected he will try to legalize a 3rd term for him because he deserves it and the first one was stolen etc.

I don't think he would win a second term, but let's say that he did. Simply being president would not allow him to run for a third term, unless he successfully pulled a military coup, which quite frankly isn't going to happen. The amended US Constitution is very clear about the two term limit for presidents after FDR. Just because someone would want to pull a Mussolini does no mean they operate in reality, and that's simply not how things work. There's no way even a slight Republican majority in the House and Senate combined with Democrats would amend the Constitution just for Trump, that's a complete fantasy. LOL. You need a two thirds majority in both the House and Senate simply to pass a new constitutional amendment. We haven't done that in decades.

[The spartan]

The best possible outcome for the Republicans is if Trump is unable to run for the next few years without them taking actions to oppose him. If Trump suffers a stroke that leaves him completely unable to run, or dies, the chances that whomever succeeds him becomes PotUS are high.

I have a certain doomsday scenario I have thought up where Trump gets convicted of illegal things he's done and is sent to prison, so Desantis can run on a 2024 platform of pardoning Trump, sweeping up the MAGA republicans as well as the more moderate ones.

[alhoon]

I don't think he would win a second term, but let's say that he did. Simply being president would not allow him to run for a third term, unless he successfully pulled a military coup, which quite frankly isn't going to happen. The amended US Constitution is very clear about the two term limit for presidents after FDR. Just because someone would want to pull a Mussolini does no mean they operate in reality, and that's simply not how things work. There's no way even a slight Republican majority in the House and Senate combined with Democrats would amend the Constitution just for Trump, that's a complete fantasy. LOL. You need a two thirds majority in both the House and Senate simply to pass a new constitutional amendment. We haven't done that in decades.

Roma, I never said or implied Trump has a working relationship with reality. I said what he would try to do.

I have a certain doomsday scenario I have though up where Trump gets convicted of illegal things he's done and is sent to prison, so Desantis can run on a 2024 platform of pardoning Trump, sweeping up the MAGA republicans as well as the more moderate ones.

I really, really wouldn't say that Republicans that would support someone saying "We will release the Emperor from prison!!!!!111 Crimes committed in the Orange One's name are NOT crimes and should be pardoned!"
are "moderates".

[Kyriakos]

One has to be really dumb or out of touch to think it's a non-disastrous idea to sell NFT cards - let alone when you are planning to run for potus.

Really, a parody couldn't be more ridiculous than the reality.

[alhoon]

One has to be really dumb or out of touch to think it's a non-disastrous idea to sell NFT cards - let alone when you are planning to run for potus.

Really, a parody couldn't be more ridiculous than the reality.

I thought that too, but then...
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-nft...143902988.html

Over 1M$, 45000 NFTs sold out in a single day.

[Coughdrop addict]

If true, it kind of makes me wonder how Trump supporters have all this money to throw away on useless memorabilia while constantly whining about inflation and food prices.

My guess is it's a money laundering scheme for Russian mob/Putin's money. NFTs are perfect for it.

[Kyriakos]

Hm, maybe.
Then again (@Alhoon) I read it was something like (at most) 1000 dollars for 1 NFT, which landed Trump a rather insignificant (for a multi-millionaire; unless he is about to go bankrupt again) amount. I heard 4.5 million, but if closer to 1 million then it is even less worth doing?
Usually those NFT scams have a smaller number of cards (a few hundreds), which sell for a bit more each. Still, no one who is poor would pay 1000 dollars for a card, so on that front too I assume that (even if it was legit, and not money laundering) not many would care if the NFT loses most of its value pretty fast.

[alhoon]

Hm, maybe.
Then again (@Alhoon) I read it was something like (at most) 1000 dollars for 1 NFT, which landed Trump a rather insignificant (for a multi-millionaire; unless he is about to go bankrupt again) amount. I heard 4.5 million, but if closer to 1 million then it is even less worth doing?
Usually those NFT scams have a smaller number of cards (a few hundreds), which sell for a bit more each. Still, no one who is poor would pay 1000 dollars for a card, so on that front too I assume that (even if it was legit, and not money laundering) not many would care if the NFT loses most of its value pretty fast.

The basic price was 99$ per card. Then it went up because NFTs can go up. 1000$ for one such card is beyond ridiculous, but some of those cards DID sell for such excessive amounts.

[Pontifex Maximus]

It's no surprise Trump supporters love the idea of a Trump dictatorship since they prefer criminality to law & order.

Someone isn't reading the twitter file drops it seems. I can't imagine being so wrong about everything that the shoe is literally on the other foot.

The government should offer every Trump supporter $10K tax free to renounce their citizenship and leave the country.

We all know what happens every time the Biden admin offers people free money. Why you think another unmitigated failure of the Biden admin would be good policy baffles me, but then again unmitigated failure seems to be a cornerstone of most leftist policy.

We'd still come out ahead in taxpayer dollars with much less spent on ER visits for overdoses and gun accidents, STI's and unplanned pregnancies, disability fraud, prisons, and much much more. The massive reduction in violent crime alone would easily be worth it.

Yeah, if only Democrat controlled cities and states weren't so violently criminal, we'd be way better off. If only democrats didn't riot for six months straight every time a drug addict died from an overdose while in police custody, we'd be way better off.

[The spartan]

I really, really wouldn't say that Republicans that would support someone saying "We will release the Emperor from prison!!!!!111 Crimes committed in the Orange One's name are NOT crimes and should be pardoned!"
are "moderates".

They would reject Trump did any wrong doing and say he was convicted in a rigged court, obviously. It would be a way for DeSantis to tap into the hardcore of MAGA, which any Republican candidate is going to need in 2024.

Someone isn't reading the twitter file drops it seems. I can't imagine being so wrong about everything that the shoe is literally on the other foot.

That's weird, because the Rights seems to be claiming things in direct contradiction to the Twitter Files:

22. Although several sources recalled hearing about a “general” warning from federal law enforcement that summer about possible foreign hacks, there’s no evidence - that I've seen - of any government involvement in the laptop story. In fact, that might have been the problem...

And yet I have had multiple Rightist tell me the Twitter Files proved the government (or more specifically, FBI) directly told Twitter to ax the laptop story.

[Coughdrop addict]

The MAGAs get really mad when you point out Taibbi's direct quote, "There is no evidence - that I’ve seen - of any government involvement in the laptop story.” Contrary to the nonsense claims of MAGA and Space Karen.

The twitter dump also revealed that officials from both political parties routinely asked Twitter to remove tweets. Which again runs contrary to MAGA persecution fantasies about twitter working secretly with Democrats to take over the world and force them to be trans or whatever deranged accusations their damaged minds are projecting today.

[Ludicus]

As you all know, I have no sympathy for Trump.On December 10, Elon Musk posted on twitter,

Twitter is both a social media company and a crime scene

What is he referring to? I'm not really up to date with this story.
Sanders, of course, is always my preferred candidate. The US should have a candidate who makes a real difference (in the US and in the world).For "vanilla" I prefer ice cream.
Sanders will give 2024 'a hard look' if Biden doesn't run: adviser

[swabian]

"Real difference"? We live in then BEST TIMES humanity has experienced, worldwide. Only due to western capitalism have we gotten where we are now. You need to forget the riches of the richest and focus on the standard of living of the poorest, which has consistently risen during the last 100 years. Socialism would get us nowhere for sure!