USA midterm elections and the path to the future elections in USA

[Coughdrop addict]

Any surprises in the midterm results so far?

Personally: One of the clowns with R by his name, that senator that is against abortion and has paid for several ones, is ... so far winning?! What the... I mean... what?!?!

You didn't really think Republican voters actually cared about any of their culture war issues did you? As long as you pledge to punish the other for existing they will ignore anything you do. Case in point: https://www.newsweek.com/gop-republi...rizona-1757817

But in some good news the red wave has become a tiny ripple: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...tion-rcna54935

[alhoon]

But in some good news the red wave has become a tiny ripple: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...tion-rcna54935

Not news for those of us that were aware of the procedure behind the numbers.
As predicted by yours truly, the Republicans are making some modest gains in the house, will probably NOT win the senate, it actually seems as they will actually lose a seat and they are taking some modest loses in governors.
And I remind you all that I have correctly predicted that the 2020 elections would close despite Democrats having more votes.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Although the Midterms are not my business, i really hope that this disgusting hypocritical Herschel Walker guy doesn't win the Senate in Georgia.

[alhoon]

Although the Midterms are not my business, i really hope that this disgusting hypocritical Herschel Walker guy doesn't win the Senate in Georgia.

That is the clown with the R I meant. I cannot believe he got nearly as many votes as the other guy. How bad can the other guy be to be neck-to-neck with someone as clearly unfit for office?

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

I don't know. He's progressive?

That's Herrschels opponent:

Raphael Warnock - Wikipedia

Although he's progressive no one with pink hairs aka not militant extreme.

[Vanoi]

Well so far this hasn't been much of a red wave. Republicans likely gain the house but the Democrats keep the Senate and might even gain a seat

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

The red wave.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

On a more serious note:

I read an article, that this time party loyalty was more important for vote decisions.

[alhoon]

I don't know. He's progressive?

That's Herrschels opponent:

Raphael Warnock - Wikipedia

Although he's progressive no one with pink hairs aka not militant extreme.

I would disagree with some of these political positions, but they are political positions. The guy is not a clown. It's a serious person that you may agree or disagree with, but you can have a discussion with him.
Not to mention that the important issue, voting rights, he is for expansion of voting rights and protection. I also like that he's not against ID laws, he's just against ID laws that target minorities!
All in all, a sensible person that I disagree with, but head and shoulders above the Republican clown.

Well so far this hasn't been much of a red wave. Republicans likely gain the house but the Democrats keep the Senate and might even gain a seat

The Democrats probably keep the senate. If Georgia senate goes to a runoff, the weird Republican (Herrschel) may actually win.
At least, Loeb-something, the gun-nut woman, seems to have a tough time getting re-elected.
And the dangerous Arizona governor wannabe, Lake or something, seems to lose with such a great difference that screams and tantrums about tampering are unlikely to get much traction

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

I don't now well informed the public german broadcaster ARD is, but it seems, that Warnock is a nose in front.

Senate election in Georgia
In Georgia, a Senate seat will be up for re-election at the 2022 Midterms. The count is 98%

Candidate Percent Percentage bar
Herschel Walker (Republican) 48.5%
Raphael Warnock (Democrats) 49.4%

[conon394]

Loeb-something, the gun-nut woman, seems to have a tough time getting re-elected.
And the dangerous Arizona governor wannabe, Lake or something, seems to lose with such a great difference that screams and tantrums about tampering are unlikely to get much traction

Lauren Boebert and she down a point with 90% vote tally.

Couple takeaways of my own Ohio and Florida are effectively red states. The dems should bother making policy based on thinking they swing. Thus stop worrying about the Cuban vote. Lift the embargo on Cuba its pointless silly and shameful relic of the cold war long dead. If we don't have an embargo on vastly more odious regime of the House of Saud than the Cuban embargo cannot stand as rational policy.

[Roma_Victrix]

Lauren Boebert and she down a point with 90% vote tally.

Couple takeaways of my own Ohio and Florida are effectively red states. The dems should bother making policy based on thinking they swing. Thus stop worrying about the Cuban vote. Lift the embargo on Cuba its pointless silly and shameful relic of the cold war long dead. If we don't have an embargo on vastly more odious regime of the House of Saud than the Cuban embargo cannot stand as rational policy.

Honestly, yeah. The Cuban Americans in Florida are always going to be a conservative bloc, it seems. Hispanics overall are not a monolith. Plus it's Florida we're talking about, where Republican DeSantis just crushed his Democrat opponent Demings. Cuba doesn't deserve the embargo considering some of the nasty countries with which we maintain not just a trade partnership but even a strategic alliance, i.e. Saudi Arabia. It's not like we embargoed the Philippines under Duterte.

I have had a slightly different prediction than everyone else here, that we would gain a seat or two in the Senate, but that we would also barely retain the House of Representatives. I still think that's very possible given how much the polling has been wrong and all over the place. If Boebert is losing her seat during a Dem midterm with wild inflation that means the GOP is in serious trouble. They clearly have three forces working against them at once: Independents and swing voters being repulsed by Trump's MAGA election deniers, the SCOTUS's overturning of Roe v. Wade earlier this year (considering the success of securing abortion rights on the ballots in red states even like Missouri and Kentucky let alone blue ones like California, Vermont, and Michigan), and COVID-19 killing off a lot of older conservative voters while a record number of younger people registered to vote. Younger people under age 30 make up a smaller slice of the pie of voters but a solid majority of them vote Democrat.

My prediction even at this stage is that the House will have a razor thin margin in favor of the Democrats retaining their majority, a slight one this time. A total of 218 seats are needed for a majority and the GOP presently have won 199, so they still need 19 more seats. We'll see how that goes. The fact that they lost a chunk of state governorships and even state legislations tells me they won't make it past that finish line even with all the gerrymandering shenanigans.

[alhoon]

I hate the progressives, but man, was it satisfying seeing far-rights and election deniers getting their butt kicked.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

I was surprised, that Trump publicly threatened De Santis, he would make things about him public, if he would dare to candidate for presidentship, that maybe only De Santis wife knows...

Isn't that a criminal behaviour threatening someone to do something, else,,,?

[Coughdrop addict]

I was surprised, that Trump publicly threatened De Santis, he would make things about him public, if he would dare to candidate for presidentship, that maybe only De Santis wife knows...

Isn't that a criminal behaviour threatening someone to do something, else,,,?

You assume laws apply to Donald Trump. He is the right's golden God.

[Roma_Victrix]

I hate the progressives, but man, was it satisfying seeing far-rights and election deniers getting their butt kicked.

It's an understatement to say that I've gleaned that from your many posts given our arguments in the past, but candidates like John Fetterman prove that progressives with populist economic messages and unflinching support for unions and labor, higher minimum wages, universal healthcare reform, etc. perform better with Independents and swing voters than the corporate suit-and-tie guys, centrist Dems, and conservative "Reagan Democrat" "Blue Dog" Dems who campaign as virtual Republican Lite choices. He even outperformed Biden 2020 numbers in rural Pennsylvania counties because, surprise, voters from lower and middle income brackets like the idea of improving their dismal financial situation while billionaires rake in record profits and rich carpetbaggers like Oz whine about the cost of crudite while failing to correctly say the names of their supermarkets or know virtually anything about their state's sports teams like the Steelers. Meanwhile, Fetterman is a dude in a hoodie and shorts who looks like an average Joe at the local grocery store.

There's a lesson to be learned in all of this for the Dems, but rest assured, the Dems will learn all the wrong lessons. They will also continue to spend exorbitant amounts of money on Florida candidates who are not going to win while ignoring Dem Senate candidates who almost won in North Carolina and Wisconsin by razor thin margins. Fetterman had a damn stroke and could hardly speak during his debate and still won, because he was personable, his policies were clearly presented, he exposed Oz as the fraud he is, and came off as more genuine and in tune with blue collar working class people, even blue collar white men. Bout time the Dems got the latter back on their side instead of surrendering a majority of them to Republicans.

[Love Mountain]

There's a lesson to be learned in all of this for the Dems, but rest assured, the Dems will learn all the wrong lessons. They will also continue to spend exorbitant amounts of money on Florida candidates who are not going to win while ignoring Dem Senate candidates who almost won in North Carolina and Wisconsin by razor thin margins. Fetterman had a damn stroke and could hardly speak during his debate and still won, because he was personable, his policies were clearly presented, he exposed Oz as the fraud he is, and came off as more genuine and in tune with blue collar working class people, even blue collar white men. Bout time the Dems got the latter back on their side instead of surrendering a majority of them to Republicans.

The problem with Florida is the incompetence of the DNC branch in that State. They are out of touch with the locals, did not develop outreach and activist networks necessary to rally voters. Literally everybody who's been involved with the Florida Dem Party has only horrible things to say about the leadership there. It's an embarrassment. Florida isn't Alabama or Missouri. There are lots of potential blue voters there, and the DNC is ready to provide multi-million level funding. The issue is a dearth of human capital that's native to Florida and has election experience.

Democrats need to write Florida off and completely rebuild their organization there. It'll take a decade if not more to seriously contest Republicans for control there. Stacey Abrams and Beto lost in their respective states, but they built powerful Democratic bases of power there. They have something to work off of and perhaps even flip the state in the next 4 years. Florida has to start at the very bottom.



Georgia started out small, and now they are on the cusp of having Two Democrat Senators. Florida can rebuild, but the current leadership needs to be purged.

[Laser101]

Honestly, yeah. The Cuban Americans in Florida are always going to be a conservative bloc, it seems. Hispanics overall are not a monolith. Plus it's Florida we're talking about, where Republican DeSantis just crushed his Democrat opponent Demings. Cuba doesn't deserve the embargo considering some of the nasty countries with which we maintain not just a trade partnership but even a strategic alliance, i.e. Saudi Arabia. It's not like we embargoed the Philippines under Duterte.

I have had a slightly different prediction than everyone else here, that we would gain a seat or two in the Senate, but that we would also barely retain the House of Representatives. I still think that's very possible given how much the polling has been wrong and all over the place. If Boebert is losing her seat during a Dem midterm with wild inflation that means the GOP is in serious trouble. They clearly have three forces working against them at once: Independents and swing voters being repulsed by Trump's MAGA election deniers, the SCOTUS's overturning of Roe v. Wade earlier this year (considering the success of securing abortion rights on the ballots in red states even like Missouri and Kentucky let alone blue ones like California, Vermont, and Michigan), and COVID-19 killing off a lot of older conservative voters while a record number of younger people registered to vote. Younger people under age 30 make up a smaller slice of the pie of voters but a solid majority of them vote Democrat.

My prediction even at this stage is that the House will have a razor thin margin in favor of the Democrats retaining their majority, a slight one this time. A total of 218 seats are needed for a majority and the GOP presently have won 199, so they still need 19 more seats. We'll see how that goes. The fact that they lost a chunk of state governorships and even state legislations tells me they won't make it past that finish line even with all the gerrymandering shenanigans.

It seems like DeSantis has been gaining popularity among Republicans and, more interestingly, has been locking horns with Trump. Given that DeSantis is younger than Trump and clearly popular, what happens if Republican delegates decide he would stand a better chance in 2024?

According to the NYT, the Republicans currently have 207 House seats confirmed to the Democrats 183 while the Senate is tied. So the Republicans may get a House majority.

[Love Mountain]

GOP will win the House. That's almost guaranteed. Today was a lot weaker than the GOP expected. If they want to win, they need to emulate the Florida model. Embrace minorities and pander to them with culture warrior issues that matter to them.

Dumb GOP take: Demonizing immigrants.
5head GOP take: Illegal immigrants are breaking the law. We want to protect and encourage hard-working legal immigrants.

America is a multi-ethnic country, and GOP voters emphatically refuse to be characterized as racist. "Law and Order" broadly appeals to all Americans and the GOP should make that message the core of their platform. GOP already has significant structural advantages. Imagine what would happen if they were actually intelligent about their messaging. I think the public is eager to move on from both Trump-ism and Progressive-ism. The party that manages that transition the best, is going to be able to secure dominance the way that Post WW2 Democrats did.

[Laser101]

GOP will win the House. That's almost guaranteed. Today was a lot weaker than the GOP expected. If they want to win, they need to emulate the Florida model. Embrace minorities and pander to them with culture warrior issues that matter to them.

Dumb GOP take: Demonizing immigrants.
5head GOP take: Illegal immigrants are breaking the law. We want to protect and encourage hard-working legal immigrants.

America is a multi-ethnic country, and GOP voters emphatically refuse to be characterized as racist. "Law and Order" broadly appeals to all Americans and the GOP should make that message the core of their platform. GOP already has significant structural advantages. Imagine what would happen if they were actually intelligent about their messaging. I think the public is eager to move on from both Trump-ism and Progressive-ism. The party that manages that transition the best, is going to be able to secure dominance the way that Post WW2 Democrats did.

The other issue is that Hispanics are often a) anti-socialist (Cubans especially) and b) strongly Catholic (and hence anti-abortion). Incidentally, AFAIK black Americans are often more socially conservative (mainly a product of religion) than white liberals. Also established or legal immigrants often take a harder line against newer or illegal immigration.

[Love Mountain]

Indeed. There are a number of issues where the GOP and Latinos are naturally aligned. Unfortunately, because the GOP regularly demonizes immigrants (all of them, not just illegal ones), is dismissive towards legitimate minority concerns (police violence, voter suppression, and family separation), and more focused on being anti-Dem than on promoting traditional Republican values?

It doesn't matter if people think Republicans aren't actually racist, or if Republicans themselves constantly repeat they are not racist. What matters is that the GOP is tone-deaf and does not address minority concerns, which leads to the vast majority of minorities into voting Democrat. Fear tactics work, and I'm sure that the Florida RNC worked overtime to produce as many "Biden is a Socialist" ads as they could, but 60% of Latinos voted Dem, 70% of Asians, and over 90% African Americans did so as well. Imagine how much of the vote they could've peeled if they actively campaigned on getting African American Voter ID cards to help them vote and prevent voter fraud. Or if they lambasted the border family separation done by Trump and pledged to help Biden to re-unite as many families as they could. These are things that cost the GOP nothing, but the extra 1-2% of voters they might win through such messaging could tip critical races. Kari Lake is behind by half a percentage point at this very moment. Warnock and Walker are a percentage apart. These margins make a difference.

The current social media campaign regarding Asians and Affirmative Action (positive discrimination) is a much more effective way of attacking Democrats. Of course, the GOP is not really pushing this angle.


A more intelligent, more conciliatory, and a more compassionate approach from the GOP would benefit everyone. It would focus on "culture warrior" issues that actually matter, they would help temper extremism from both parties (Radical progressivism and Trumpism), and it would force Democrats to be more nuances and focused on issues beyond surface-level tactics like "Republicans are trying to stop you from voting". Even if you're a Democrat (like me), you would benefit.