Elon Musk: population collapse biggest threat to humanity

[Gigantus]

I do feel reminded of pyramid schemes reading through the arguments here, be it fertilizer or population: ever greater quantities being required to enabling ever diminishing returns.

But then the 'growth of the economy' is dependent on that, after all the markets (and with it profit) can only expand if the consumer base is expanding right? Which then leads to the thought that economy (at least stock markets) is bound to collapse unless the pyramid keeps on growing.

I reckon that collapse will come way before any population collapse (at overall stagnation already) - if you can't make profit by investing money because the market stagnates would seem a somewhat greater existential threat then a declining replacement rate.

But back to the premise of the OP - I don't think that population collapse in itself will the issue, rather it will be a trigger, on a local scale, that then dominoes. The fragility of the global supply system (and it's interdependence) has been ably demonstrated over the past few years, so I think it's not so far off that a local population collapse will have drastic, global consequences.

[Flinn]

The fragility of the global supply system (and it's interdependence) has been ably demonstrated over the past few years, so I think it's not so far off that a local population collapse will have drastic, global consequences.

That is pretty much my main concern as well. When it will collapse, it will be nothing less than spectacular. As for me, I'm trying to make myself as independent as possible, but that's not easy at all, it takes time and money (and one has to fight against silly rules, such as those that forbid you to directly produce your own electricity).

[Gigantus]

That is pretty much my main concern as well. When it will collapse, it will be nothing less than spectacular. As for me, I'm trying to make myself as independent as possible, but that's not easy at all, it takes time and money (and one has to fight against silly rules, such as those that forbid you to directly produce your own electricity).

Just wait a little - once infra structure deteriorates and power failures become the norm no one is going to stop you to generate your own electricity by whatever means. In the meantime start thinking about water supply.

[Flinn]

Just wait a little - once infra structure deteriorates and power failures become the norm no one is going to stop you to generate your own electricity by whatever means. In the meantime start thinking about water supply.

Luckily, I already have a well, of naturally potable water.

[swabian]

All economic growth within a country or a collective of countries, like the EU, eventually depends on a steady supply of new potential to be employed in various jobs. That means a potential of humans being born and supplying the market with their work force. Virtually all of the problems that Europe has is fundamentally based on that fact. Yes, of course it is a big problem, it's in fact the biggest problem that ever existed in the Western world and in many other places beyond that.

Elon Musk falls prey to the "success delusion", which is, that such enormous succes and wealth brings with it a certain overconfidence or even arrogance, but to say that Musk is an "idiot" is polemic nonsense.

This problem is being discussed everywhere ad infinitum, there is no Elon needed to get clicks and comments for it. It is very real and it is a devastating outlook.

[Heathen Hammer]

One thing that comes to mind is how the one-child policy has screwed China immensely and they are now heavily trying to undo the maoist calamity.
The creepy globalist complaints about "overpopulation" have little to do with forced and insincere "environmental" concerns, and far more to do with rather "pragmatic" fear of family-oriented society being far less easy to control and manipulate, let alone syphon wealth out of.

[AqD]

They adopted that policy because they were already screwed by previous dynasty which saw population grew multiple folds without any increase in productivity. Deforestation, land overuse and widespread poverty as a result.

Overpopulation was and has always been a serious concern. Do you think water and food just come out of nowhere? We have one billion cattle now - how many more billions are we going to keep if every country grow to reach the per-capita consumption level in US? Or are we going to tell children hey you wont have any steak no matter how rich you become because we ruined it?

[Coughdrop addict]

Here, as in most things, Musk has no idea what he's talking about. It's typical doom saying nonsense that has been used throughout history to justify not even trying to change things, or even to stifle innovation that might disrupt the status quo.

I think everyone should read this book to get some real perspective as a counterpoint to the usual doom-and-gloom we are usually drowned in: https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Fut.../dp/1451614217

[swabian]

Here, as in most things, Musk has no idea what he's talking about. It's typical doom saying nonsense that has been used throughout history to justify not even trying to change things, or even to stifle innovation that might disrupt the status quo.

I think everyone should read this book to get some real perspective as a counterpoint to the usual doom-and-gloom we are usually drowned in: https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Fut.../dp/1451614217

As much as I respect your opinion, I have to insist that there are too many snarky journalists out there that have falsely debunked 'many doom and gloom' scenarious, especially in the more recent past. Too often have I seen "experts" denying that the world is drifting towards a serious economical crisis, which Is tightly intertwined with this problematic because the financial bubble has vastly outgrown actual production.

It is also all too easy to dismiss long known problems based on fancy new suggestions, as it sells well because it's well recieved in younger generations who understandably, but foolishly, don't want to hear anything about problems looming in their future, especially with the climate crisis overshadowing everything.

The problem of overpopulation is global, but not locally present in the Western world. This is not even close to an appropriate level of differentiation. In the West we should strive to achieve stability or near stability. This current rate of decline is poison for our economies. We absolutely can't compensate that with immigration (which is needed regardless to slow down the process).

The topic is very complex and we probably can't really get into the details here, so I don't mind a book recommendation, but, I'm sure you're aware, normally this isn't a good style of discussion

[Heathen Hammer]

Deforestation and other related things are merely consequences of industrial revolution, the book advertised by CA seems to be very divorced from reality, given the opposite of what it has described currently happening.
Another major factor is inefficiency of supply chains, caused by corporate oligopolies and their "marriage" with Western political establishments.
So overpopulation isn't the bottleneck here, economy strictly designed to favor a small groups of corporate elites is.

[AqD]

Deforestation and other related things are merely consequences of industrial revolution, the book advertised by CA seems to be very divorced from reality, given the opposite of what it has described currently happening.

That's not true at all.

Man-made climate change has been quite obvious in ME and China where there have been concentrated populations, long before industrial revolution.

Jerusalem was nothing like today when Jesus was alive. Syria was green, lion hunting was a big sport, and the heart of Iraq was endless farmland, and in three kingdoms you can find impassable mountains and dense forests that all ceased centuries later.

[Pontifex Maximus]

Deforestation and other related things are merely consequences of industrial revolution, the book advertised by CA seems to be very divorced from reality, given the opposite of what it has described currently happening.
Another major factor is inefficiency of supply chains, caused by corporate oligopolies and their "marriage" with Western political establishments.
So overpopulation isn't the bottleneck here, economy strictly designed to favor a small groups of corporate elites is.

Welcome to one of my favorite green nazi cope topics. "REEEE WE HAVE MORE TREES THAN EVER BEFORE, THIS IS WHY THE WORLD WILL END IN 3 YEARS!!111!!"

Yeah, but trust muh science I guess.

[Coughdrop addict]

That's not true at all.

Man-made climate change has been quite obvious in ME and China where there have been concentrated populations, long before industrial revolution.

Jerusalem was nothing like today when Jesus was alive. Syria was green, lion hunting was a big sport, and the heart of Iraq was endless farmland, and in three kingdoms you can find impassable mountains and dense forests that all ceased centuries later.

And they'll tell you that's all fake and human actions have absolutely no effects on the environment. The coal and oil oligarchs said so, so that makes it true.

[Heathen Hammer]

Welcome to one of my favorite green nazi cope topics. "REEEE WE HAVE MORE TREES THAN EVER BEFORE, THIS IS WHY THE WORLD WILL END IN 3 YEARS!!111!!"

Yeah, but trust muh science I guess.

Its the same cultists that oppose safe and effective nuclear power tooth and nail, because "muh Chernobyl" almost 4 decades ago.
Also the same people that promote "veganism" despite the fact that deforestation is literally caused by growing demand for more vegan gruel, that requires waaaaay more land then for cattle grazing.
That whole movement is more similar to Jonestown or Heaven's Gate then to legitimate environmentalist activism.

[antaeus]

I always figured the solution to demographic decline was to keep a majority of people poor and uneducated, and keep the management of society limited to a few talented smart individuals who can look after the heaving, sweating, breeding masses for their own good.

That way that if those poor breeding masses did eventually fall foul of some non-wealth based fertility loss, there's always the elite smart folk to science it and enforce any solution required on society.

Now where might we get that smart talented individual to manage the world for us while we focus on being poor and stupid breeders...

[Heathen Hammer]

I always figured the solution to demographic decline was to keep a majority of people poor and uneducated, and keep the management of society limited to a few talented smart individuals who can look after the heaving, sweating, breeding masses for their own good.

That way that if those poor breeding masses did eventually fall foul of some non-wealth based fertility loss, there's always the elite smart folk to science it and enforce any solution required on society.

Now where might we get that smart talented individual to manage the world for us while we focus on being poor and stupid breeders...

You are being sarcastic (I hope), but this is what "people" in Western elites really think, where coked-out litter of once-accomplished political dynasties thinks of themselves as enlightened progressive demigods, where the rest of population is dumb cattle which should have its rights and freedoms limited for "its own good".

[Axland]

I suppose it depends on how one defines "population collapse". In absolute numbers, projections are the population will continue to grow into the 3rd quarter of this century, reaching a peak of between 10 and 11 billion. The change in demographic make-up, with a narrowing bottom and a widening top is problematic, but unavoidable sooner or later. Humanity can't continue to run the economy like some demographic pyramid scheme.

P.S. I wasn't just referring to climate change but the general impoverishment of the ecosystems a lot of people seem to have forgotten (or rather never realized in the first place) we depend on for our survival and, I might add, for geopolitical stability. It's all coming to a head. The coming half century or so will be crucial. The only question is whether civilization is headed for a dead-end or a bottleneck. If the population does not stabilize or decline soon it's going to be a dead end. So what is even the point of entertaining any kind of policy, for anything, that involves boosting population growth?

100% agree. I think the period 2050-2100 will be crucial for our civilization.

The population growth will eventually stop at some point and the policies must change accordingly. The only alternative scenarios are an epidemic designed to erase +60 years population o a global war, both with dangerous implications.

[paleologos]

Guys, I just began watching the video and Elon Musk says "...this is the single biggest threat to civilization".
He did not say "...this is the single biggest threat to humanity".
His choice of words matters.

Let me watch the rest of the video before rushing to answer.
I suspect he will argue thusly:

"Humanity will continue to exist at a reduced level.
However a lower population will not be able to sustain our current level of economic and technological sophistication."

Ergo, he suspects, civilization will regress to a lower stage.
Let me see if I'm right.

[paleologos]

Turns out I was right.
Elon Musk did not suggest that birth decline is a threat to our species.
It is only a threat to civilization as our generation has come to know it.

Feel free to check out Peter Zeihan's Demographics Series.

Personally, I predict that in the absolute worse case scenario, we will regress to a subsistence economy that can no longer produce any more contraceptives because of how primitive everything will become.
And from there our population will begin to recover slowly (very slowly).

In the meanwhile we keep living longer and longer.
We are about to become an economy with lots of consumers and very few workers.
The demand for workforce will drive wages up very steeply and in combination with the lower numbers of workers the outcome will be quite inflationary.

Needless to say, the transition will be particularly painful for the elderly.
At least the people who will live to reach retirement without having produced any offspring.
In that time they will find out that the money they've been saving no longer has any value because there are not enough people to work in exchange for that money to produce what the elderly need to buy in order to keep living.

[Gigantus]

Also the same people that promote "veganism" despite the fact that deforestation is literally caused by growing demand for more vegan gruel, that requires waaaaay more land then for cattle grazing.

I'd love to see the source of that fact. Never mind that most cattle destined for slaughter aren't grazing anymore, aka grain feeding.