Elon Musk: population collapse biggest threat to humanity

[paleologos]

I'd love to see the source of that fact.
Never mind that most cattle destined for slaughter aren't grazing anymore, aka grain feeding.

I second Gig's objections, as I have training and professional experience in the meat industry.
Here is some reading:
Feed conversion ratio (from wikipedia)
Feed Conversion Ratios Help Explain Meat’s Outsized Climate Impact
Feed-to-Meat – Conversion Inefficiency Ratios
The Ultimate Guide to FCR (Feed Conversion Ratio)


However this is not all gloom and doom:
Elon Musk is quite knowledgeable on matters of untapped potential.
Quite frankly that's how he made his fortune.

Here is some more reading for those who want to see how many more people can be sustained with the agricultural potential of our little planet:
Urban farms have huge untapped potential to fight hunger
Cropland’s untapped potential
The hidden gem: Exploring the untapped potential of food investments
Africa: Untapped potential for agriculture

[Pontifex Maximus]

This is an issue that has been analyzed in a lens of over-complification (as opposed to over-simplification, TM). Pretermitting the cause for lower birth rates, we are feeling the effects. We have been in a steep labor shortage for about three years now, which seems to have been spurred by Covid-19. We lost people to the disease through death, yes, but we also lost people in the work force due to early retirement incentives, etc during the lockdowns as cost saving measures. I can only speak for the US, but our boomer population is our most populous group, followed by millenials. Gen X and zoomers are considerably smaller by comparison. Xers arei n their peak economic earning years, and millenials are close behind. Zoomers appear to be rebelling against the traditional economy which is why "help wanted" signs have been in restaurants, retails stores, and any other conventional industry traditionally staffed by "young adult/teen" workers. I am less concerned about Elon Musk's views on the issue, but I have found Peter Zeihan has some pretty good insights. In particular one of his analytic insights that:

1. Demography. The book examines age pyramids, a country's population aging over time and into the future. This gives him a view of a country's prospect for its labor force growth or contraction over time. In turn, this informs him on the overall economic prospects of a country in terms of economic growth, rising living standards, and other indices.

[paleologos]

...
I am less concerned about Elon Musk's views on the issue, but I have found Peter Zeihan has some pretty good insights. In particular one of his analytic insights that:

1. Demography. The book examines age pyramids, a country's population aging over time and into the future. This gives him a view of a country's prospect for its labor force growth or contraction over time. In turn, this informs him on the overall economic prospects of a country in terms of economic growth, rising living standards, and other indices.

Yes, well, Elon Musk does not think everything himself, he couldn't possibly have the time.
I believe Musk's thoughts on the issue are greatly informed by Zeihan's work.
Quite frankly, had I not been aware of Zeihan's work, I would not have attributed any gravitas to Musk's opinions on the matter, on the ground that it is not his specialty.

Let me restate one more time, Musk's concern is not that a low birth rate will result in the elimination of humanity.
His concern is that civilization as we know it will regress to an earlier stage because of inevitable downsizing.

[Cyclops]

Musk makes noises sometimes at random, and sometimes to manipulate stock prices. Not a scientist or an academic AFAIK (Wiki says he has a BA in physics and a BSC in Econ, which is...weird) but he does laugh at dead deer.

Zeihan has some interesting things to say. He even publishes his mistakes, eg in "End of the World is just the Beginning" he mentions that the Ukraine conflict isn't going the way he predicted, with the US engaging effectively on the periphery instead of letting it unfold on its own. Its persuasive stuff, and I didn't finish the book because it was anxiety fuel.

I'm struck by his intensely materialist viewpoint, which I share. He misuses the word Socialism but he does that for the benefit of US readers. His predictions are sensible economics but I feel his methods might not have predicted some past events eg WWI was deemed impossible for economic reasons (Keegan's history of the First world War outlines this thinking) and it use similar argumentation. Personal beliefs often impact world events, as does magical thinking, and economics doesn't describe that well.

[Pontifex Maximus]

Yes, well, Elon Musk does not think everything himself, he couldn't possibly have the time.
I believe Musk's thoughts on the issue are greatly informed by Zeihan's work.
Quite frankly, had I not been aware of Zeihan's work, I would not have attributed any gravitas to Musk's opinions on the matter, on the ground that it is not his specialty.

Let me restate one more time, Musk's concern is not that a low birth rate will result in the elimination of humanity.
His concern is that civilization as we know it will regress to an earlier stage because of inevitable downsizing.

Yeah ok, I don't care what Elon Musk says. So. Are you more concerned with addressing the tenets of Zeihan directly, or are you relying on Elon's supposed adoption of same to discredit them. You basically seem to accept Zeihan's hypothesis and you're just mad because Elon has an opinion.

[paleologos]

Well, I don't understand why you think I am "mad", I am not.

It just so happens I think both of them are right because my education includes economics.
If one is to learn anything about economics (aka Economics 101) they learn about the Factors of Production and Economies of Scale among a few other things.

If the population of the "rich" countries diminishes we will not only lose human labor, we also lose economies of scale as it is meaningless to produce what you cannot sell for the lack of consumers.
Everything becomes more expensive as a result, the sum total brainpower of humanity regresses to an earlier level and the speculation is that the sum total standard of living will also regress.

There are those who fear a cyberpunk future, with high tech available to a few and "low life" conditions being the best case scenario for the many.
Films like Bladerunner, Cloud Atlas, Elysium and Alita: Battle Angel showcase such speculations.

My only disagreement is I find the title of this thread misleading as neither Elon Musk nor Peter Zeihan have speculated that humanity will end due to a reduced birth rate in the developed world.
What they both speculate is a regression of our civilizational sophistication to an earlier stage.
I too, fear this will be the fate of humanity as an increasing occurrence of borderline narcissism will result in more and more of the educated feeling about themselves as "too good to birth or raise children".