Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Cope]

This is what I am talking about. Numbers don't tell the full story. Having more equipment doesn't mean anything. China has far more men, ships, vehicles, and tanks than the US but you'd be hard-pressed to claim the Chinese have a better or superior military.

How many of those Eastern and Central European nations actually have modern armies. Old legacy Soviet aircraft, arms, tanks, and weapons won't touch the Russians.

No way the entire EU would agree to go to war.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Europe

Maybe you need to read up on your geography? Even the United Nations counts Poland and the Baltics as Eastern Europe.

By who? The French who don't have the capability? The Germans who can't even maintain their own air force?

A European telling me to step out of my nationalist bubble. The irony.

You act as if the EU would unite it's militaries overnight with no problem and 26 nations could effectively coordinate their militaries to beat the Russians. This is just hilarious

I could simply point to Libya and the French intervention in Mali to prove my point. In both cases Europeans require American logistics to support their forces.

Sure if you leave out the US developed better logistics in the interwar while European militaries haven't done anything except in many cases like the Germans and British who have actually cut the size of their military.

The US. It's not the Germans flying in supplies from the United States. Do you honestly think the Germans, British, Poles, and other American allies are footing the entire bill for the American military presence on their lands?

He's making the point that the EU nations (collectively) have more than enough potential to defend themselves against Russia without external support. As above, Europe has the capacity to mobilize and cooperate, it just doesn't need to. There is nothing to be gained from occupying a role that the US is already doing.

[Ludicus]

Call it a war neurosis,living in a hostile foreign country where they were under constant surveillance.
Challenging the diagnosis of 'Havana Syndrome' as a novel clinical entity - Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine

Voilà

Havana syndrome: Most cases not caused by foreign power

Since 2016, US diplomats around the world have reported symptoms - sparking suggestions Russia, China or another adversary could be responsible.
But a majority of 1,000 cases looked at by the CIA can be explained by stress or natural causes, officials say.
it had not found evidence of a worldwide campaign by a foreign state.
Instead, it had found that most of what are formally known as anomalous health incidents could be explained by medical conditions like undiagnosed illness or environmental factors.

[conon394]

The Baltics would fall within a day actually, Warsaw would fall within a week, and that's just about how far the Russians would get before being pushed back. In order for your argument to work you have to talk about the EU as a whole but treat every country individually which is kind of stupid if you step out of the nationalist American bubble and think about it.

Really I don't see Warsaw falling that quick. Rail is still rather important to Russia and Poland has made sure the switch in rail gauge is on their side. I agree the Baltic states are a lost cause but than again so is Kaliningrad and probably Putin's little bit of Moldova if he fails to take all of the Ukraine.

[Ludicus]

Poland

Poland's relationship with the Eastern Partnership

In mid-December, the sixth summit of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) initiative, which represents an essential part of the EU’s neighbourhood policy, took place in Brussels. Participating states include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The last summit took place four years ago, suggesting that the EaP has lost significance within the EU in recent years. Previously, these leaders’ summits were held every two years. This lack of interest can be further seen in the fact that, with the exception of the Brussels Summit in 2017, all the remaining meetings have taken place in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Warsaw, Prague, Vilnius and Riga). Naturally, these states are more closely linked with the EaP countries.

(...) it is now much more difficult for Poland to bring other EU states around to its own position on Eastern affairs. The Polish government’s position in the EU and its ability to form coalitions have been significantly weakened by its internal politics. It has been repeatedly criticized by EU institutions and many member states for its efforts to dismantle the rule of law, curtail civil society and call into question fundamental rights such as media freedom. The government in Warsaw has ignored the rulings of the Court of Justice of the EU, according to which Poland’s judicial ‘reforms’ are in conflict with EU law. The Polish cabinet has also taken the most skeptical stance on the Green Deal out of all member states. Above all, Warsaw’s course on these fundamental issues contrasts starkly with the ideas promoted in the Joint Declaration of the Eastern Partnership Summit. This document identifies the reform of the judicial systems in participating countries as a top priority. These reforms are intended to ensure that these states can effectively fight corruption. The document also declares that the EU will support independent media, civil society, inclusive democracy and a green energy transition in the region. If Poland – a key EU player in the EaP – continues with its current domestic policies, the contradictions between its domestic agenda and the EU’s strategic objectives in the region will become increasingly apparent. This will threaten both the credibility of EU efforts and Poland’s fundamental interests in the East.

American cold war split did not place Poland in Eastern Europe

The Iron Curtain did it.The Polish People Republic, a communist country, existed from from 1947 to 1989 and was a signatory of the Warsaw pact alliance.Warsaw Pact - Wikipedia
Btw, Lech Walesa has gone broke due to COVID pandemic.

[Vanoi]

He's making the point that the EU nations (collectively) have more than enough potential to defend themselves against Russia without external support. As above, Europe has the capacity to mobilize and cooperate, it just doesn't need to.There is nothing to be gained from occupying a role that the US is already doing.

In theory they do. In reality the EU has no realistic plan to fully mobilize and then coordinate and combine the militaries of over dozens of nations to use in military conflict. I highly doubt you could even get all EU nations to even agree to go to war.

[Stario]

2022 might be a bad year if the Soviets invade Ukraine and the CCP f/u w/ invasion of their own of Taiwan...

[AqD]

And by doing so both governments would be toppled and replaced with western puppets?

[Ludicus]

A brief History of corruption in Ukraine.

The Kravchuk era

One U.S. Department of Justice report described Ukraine at the time as a country where “politics, crime and corruption merged to form both a deeply criminalized political system and highly politicized criminal organizations.”

The Kuchma era

private television stations and political parties blossomed, only to help businessmen further their ambitions. Party ideology meant little. Political consultants cobbled together parties based on what they thought they could best sell to voters. These parties became vehicles for oligarchs and their proxies to propel them into decision-making positions; the parties were thus disposable.

The Yushchenko era

His lack of vision and enthusiasm frustrated some but were lucrative for others. Yushchenko’s lack of engagement and oversight empowered local bosses. The new president seemed to get along well with Kuchma-era oligarchs. Far from facing jail terms, their business empires expanded, and so did their influence.

The Yanukovych era

as soon as he got his hands on the reins of power, he spurred official corruption to new levels

.

The Poroshenko era

While campaigning during the special presidential election, Poroshenko promised that things would change. “Living the new way” was his campaign slogan. But the slogan was at odds with his biography. Poroshenko had amassed an estimated $1.3 billion fortune by the time he ran for the presidency. As he built his business empire, he held political jobs under three out of his four presidential predecessors. By 2017, the majority of Ukrainians considered corruption to be the nation’s biggest problem. Their concerns only multiplied in subsequent years.

The Zelensky era

Zelensky sold himself as a fighter of oligarchs. He only had to take on one oligarch, but he had to align himself with others,” Tim Ash, a London-based emerging markets strategist from BlueBay Asset Management

Pandora Papers Reveal Offshore Holdings of Ukrainian President and his Inner Circle...

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rode to power on pledges to clean up the Eastern European country, but the Pandora Papers reveal he and his close circle were the beneficiaries of a network of offshore companies, including some that owned expensive London property.

To sum up- it’s a never ending story. In Ukraine, mafia-like struggles for state power between a handful of oligarchs and a corrupt judiciary and authorities.

German navy chief resigns amid diplomatic row with Kyiv

Germany’s refusal to supply weapons to Ukraine amid the security crisis on its border to Russia is intended to avoid escalating tensions, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said

Germany Blocks NATO Ally From Transferring Weapons to Ukraine.

Last June, Biden made clear that Ukraine does not yet have the go-ahead to join the NATO.

Right now, NATO Steps Up Readiness

U.S. intelligence officials have said they do not believe President Vladimir V. Putin has made a decision to attack Ukraine.

Much Ado about Nothing.Or not...Sir Max Hastings - military historian: “No one nation deserves all responsibility for the outbreak of WW1”. It will not be good if many years from now we (I mean, the survivors) come to discuss 10 interpretations of who started the US/NATO/ Russian War.

[Legio_Italica]

During a Saturday meeting at the presidential Camp David retreat, senior defence department officials laid out options for Biden, including sending between 1,000 to 5,000 troops to NATO countries including Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland, the New York Times newspaper reported on Sunday, citing officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The number of troops could be increased by 10 times if the situation escalates, according to the newspaper. The proposed plan also includes deploying warships and aircraft to NATO allies in the region.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...baltics-report

Muh pivot to Asia. Very well played by the emerging Axis in any event. Moscow tying down western resources in an escalating game of chicken while Beijing plots a Crimea-style “liberation” of Taiwan would be a poetic and sobering glimpse into the future.

You are assuming that the Russian nationalist state apparatus cannot be dismantled and that Russia cannot be welcomed into the global liberal order. You assume that Russia will always be "that" Russia.

Russian population, although still at large conservative-nationalist-pro authoritarian folk are a lot more engaged with the Western mindset. This became obvious in Ukraine a decade ago and even in a place like Belarus last year. Peoples of Eastern Europe are not as isolated from a globalist world idea as the Chinese or North Koreans are. Both in Russia and Russian-sphere, many consider themselves as part of the European identity. An identity that so far represents enlightement, democracy and liberalism. Same in Iran. When you people look at these countries from the West, you only see the state apparatus, but many of these countries have significant populations that want a system like in the West. That want to integrate to a global world and be done with their loval feudal-like oligarchs.

The assets which the authoritarian regime in Russia rests on are limited. There is a possibility that the regime CAN be dismantled and pro-Western people can install some sort of a cooperative, open democracy.

People keep thinking that Russia is a unified force that acts from the mind of those in centre at all times, but people ignore the fact that Russia is spending A LOT of resources to main that regime and it's hold on various ex-communist states.

There is already a great deal of discontent in every ex-Soviet sphere country as well as in Russia. Local nationalism's against Russian expansionism are on the rise.
Russia lacks the economic and financial power to keep this afloat. Their reserves are big because EU does not want to go through heavy undertakings on diversifying their energy resources. Russian economy is outdated beyond that, their exports are mostly uncompetitive, their firms rarely have global edge and most businesses rely on old Soviet ties-ties that are enforced by the same oligarchy that rules the Russian regime. That is how they survive.

The worst scenario is if Russia secured a solid energy export deal to China and they cooperate. This could turn into a win-win for Russia&China for a long time. But even there, Russian and Chinese expansion, their desire to create their own spheres clash in most locations, especially Central Asia. There are already conspiracies about what happened in Kazakhstan, that the pro-Chinese bureaucracy that was being funded by China was dismantled by what happened.

Russia and China are natural adversaries for the reasons you mention but they are already cooperating effectively through sheer mutual interest in seeing the US world order torn down. If that were to happen, yes, they would become hostile to each other. As for energy exports in particular, great minds…..

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...energy-exports

I’ll go out on a limb and suppose it doesn’t matter what the Russian people think so much as what the people in power are able to accomplish. Liberal reformers have been crushed time and again from the days of the Tsar to communism to now. If the US were capable of installing and maintaining a friendly ally in Moscow, we would have done so since the fall of Soviet Union.

Anyways, I believe Russia is running out of time, they are at their peak power and they have to act now. That is the reason for their aggresion. For the Putinist regime, they either act now or they use their dwindling power to maintain their hold on their sphere.

It is an economically undynamic country, reliant of fossil fuel that is being replaced by new energy sources all over the world. It's population is aging at an extremely rapid pace. It is relatively isolated. It's society is oppressed and thus very undynamic. Most of the brains of the country escape to West.
The relative strenght of the countries that surround Russia including it's own sphere of influence is becoming stronger. Even Turkey has been taking significant shots at Russia. Russian influence in Kafkas has been damaged immensely. An area West did not even dare to step in before. They kıst Georgia to West, Armenia is half-half. Their grip on Azerbaijan is melting at a rapid pace as Israel and Turkey moves in.

Russia has one great asset since the Soviet times. It's deep state, it's intelligence agency networks and their power to divide the rest of the world. Their ability to use disinformation.

A Russia that can rid itself of this entrenched authoritarian-militarist network can also become a dynamic economy with lots of potentials. This opportunity was wasted in the 1990s due to over-celebration of the Western victory where they ruthlessly turned Russia into a terrible colony of sorts for a while, trying to plunder it- which ended up creating a huge resentment among the masses who were expecting to have their lives elevated (like in Eastern Euroe).

Perhaps it is Russian historical memory of Soviet autarky that has enabled modern Russia to insulate itself reasonably well against western sanctions. In any case large forex reserves, intelligence assets, residual military power, and abundance of both raw materials and finished goods means the pipe dream of bringing the Kremlin to heel through sanctions and speeches will not succeed long term. The whole “yearning for freedom” thing might have been true when it meant getting access to sought-after American products like fast food, denim and movies. The assumption that masses of Russians and other Eastern Europeans are just waiting for some sign from westerners to embolden them to rise up against their oppressors is a bit like the Soviet assumption Americans were one well-placed influence campaign away from communist revolution. Washington was wrong to assume so then, and increasingly appears to be under similar illusions today.

I believe that a pro-western, cooperative, democratic Russia is possible with the newer generations that grow up seeing the world on the internet. Not only that, Russia would be major ally against China's attempt to create it's own alternative hegemonic power.

That is why Russia should be the priority. The solution to the question of Russia is the solution to the problem of China.

If Russia miraculously flips to a liberal democracy and integrates with the western bloc, yeah, that would solve the problem of China. Such an unlikely stroke of luck might even convince me to believe in God again. Hence my point though. Real war with China and/or Russia could break out any day. All it takes is an unexpected mistake or violent spat of confusion for the escalation to escape from the escalators. I’m all for saving the world in a sandbox, but real war is real hell, the likes of which barely remain in living memory. Western leaders must either fight to win or don’t fight at all. Immolating top brass for saying common sense stuff doesn’t inspire confidence there are level heads at the helm.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...raine-comments

[Ludicus]

It's not a case of do or die.The current trend, from the news,

1) The Bellicose rhetoric

- “US reduces staff at US embassy”
- “NATO Sends More Forces To Eastern Flank”
- “Britain has started withdrawing staff”

----
2) On the other side I see,

- “Germany refuses weapons deliveries to Ukraine”
- "EU says not following US diplomat families’ withdrawals from Ukraine".
-“Ukraine’s foreign ministry noted the U.S. move but expressed displeasure”
- “Ukraine sees no evidence of Russian invasion"

--
In Russia, there is high neoliberal tolerance for large inequality and concentration of private property. It's really a huge irony that today post-Communism has become the worst ally of hyper-capitalism.In the Russian kleptocracy, billionaires and oligarchs appear to be loyal to the Russian state and perceived national interests. In the western countries, billionaires and oligarchs appear to be loyal to themselves.

[dogukan]

Oligarchs in Russia rely on the state mechanism to legitimzie their position. That is why they cooperate with the state. The corruption of Russia is at another level. There, the state gives projects to allies and allies ensure the existing "deep state" mechanism is protected through their media, mafia ties(potential assasinations or at least scaring off of opposition) while cutting some for the bureaucrats.

During Soviet times, siphoning of this much resources was not possible, but many bureaucrats did find themselves in unchecked power positions. The moment the Soviet system came down, there was nothing to prevent these bureaucrats from turning into state-connected billionaries. Hence, most of them are alraedy in clsoe ties with each other. It is literally a network of people that has their roots back in decades that rule in Russia.

Rarely you will see entrepeneurial types rise up in the dynamic capitalism of Russia and innovate, thus making all better off. Consequently, they get a ton of brain drain.
The oligarchs not only are the state, they are also preventing anyone from creating alternative decentralized forms of power mechanism. Therefore, it is an uncompetitive economy, not diversified adequately, reliant on exports of natural resources...which are also the main source of power for the regime to legitimize itself.

It is a full circle as you can see. Oligarchs, natural resources, deep state networks and corrupt bureaucrats...

[dogukan]

Muh pivot to Asia. Very well played by the emerging Axis in any event. Moscow tying down western resources in an escalating game of chicken while Beijing plots a Crimea-style “liberation” of Taiwan would be a poetic and sobering glimpse into the future.

To be fair, as of now, American military assets are adequately distributed to contain both side's simulatenous acts.

In E.Europe there is a large NATO alliance network that can be backed by American ground forces organization.

In E.Asia, there is a powerful alliance behind America that can be backed by US Navy.

Both these departments can manage a ton with their own internal organization, logistics, network and chains of command much like in WWII (Army for Europe and Navy for Pacific).
Air Force can back these two depending on context.

But we are faced with the classic WWI dilemma.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCbJxvCTHRc

America is in a position of power which increases the demand for a pre-emptive strike. I pretty much think that in Ukraine, USA wants to be done with Russia ASAP so as to lower future threats. This is why I believe for USA, increased Russian aggression is an opportunity. USA might even encourage a Ukranian offensive into Donbass to force the hand of Putin to make his move.
Though I am pretty sure Moscow is already well aware of this.

Unlucky for the world, Russia is ruled by a very calculating regime. So their nationalism does not combine with stupid trigger happy commanders like in the rest of the autocratic world that provide the opportunities for early defeats.
It is clear to me that USA wants to turn Ukraine into an Afghanistan for Russia asap. Though Ukranians likely are scared of this, they want absolute deterrance. Meanwhile Biden says "minor incursions are no biggie" to likely trick Russians into thinking USA won't act if there is action in Donbass...
There is a lot of tension in the air and both sides are trying to force the other into a mistake.

[antaeus]

I think there is an influential area here that we haven't discussed a lot which dogukan has reminded me of.

The Council on Foreign Relations discussed it on one in on of their podcasts analysing the situation recently, (and I have to apologise I can't find it right now to link), and that is the importance of Ukraine - China relations. Since 2014 China has massively increased it's investment in Ukraine, partly as an opportunistic grab for influence in the area. China is notable because it doesn't care what type of government is in place, so long as the trade flows and respect is shown. Ukraine for example, has filled a lot of slack in China left by US trade penalties (Ukraine is China's largest source for some food stocks for example)

So China has continually stressed dialogue as the solution for this situation. While China might be able to make advantage over US distraction, and are quite capable of coordination with Russia to do so when convenient, they're loath to allow a war in the region to 1. Strengthen European integration beyond Ukraine, 2. Strengthen Putin, 3. disrupt their own economic interactions and 4. reduce their currently increasing influence in this part of the world. If we then look at the local context for their recent pressuring on Taiwan - which looks like was aimed for domestic PR rather than actual military action - then there is a case to be made that China doesn't want a war in Ukraine, and may be doing work behind the scenes with European and American partners to prevent it, even while benefiting from the PR of a distracted US.

[Ludicus]

The war no one wants.
NATO Won't Let Ukraine Join Soon. Here's Why. - The New York Yimes

-Like European leaders, President Biden remains uninterested in Ukrainian membership in NATO. Here are four reasons.
-Biden has grown skeptical of expanding U.S. military commitments.
-Biden wants Ukraine to improve its political and legal systems.
-NATO wants to avoid greater Russian hostility.
-Ukrainian leaders have waffled on NATO membership.

Right now, Biden is throwing Russia into the arms of China- and China has thrown its political weight behind Russia.Now what?

And as expected, Ukraine crisis reveals growing Republican rift on Russia

... asking why America should take sides at all... pro-Russian stance taken by a large section of the right has unsettled many observers... it also reflects a pro-Russia sentiment that took root under former president Donald Trump, who lionized Vladimir Putin as a "highly respected" leader and publicly sided with the former KGB spy over the US government.
One of the most influential voices in right-wing media, Carlson's provocative screeds have been broadcast approvingly by Russian state TV.
As strong nationalists, these Republicans are anti-NATO and not supportive of Ukraine joining NATO. Russia doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO either... Trump has had a large influence on generating these sentiments as he had been generally warmer toward Russia, and so has Tucker Carlson, who has gone to great lengths to advocate the pro-Russia position on his show."

Nato honesty on Ukraine could avert conflict with Russia says the Financial Times

The alliance should affirm it has no plan to accept Kyiv’s membership bid, in return for a drawdown of Moscow’s forces

Edit, Don't create panic, Zelensky tells West

[PointOfViewGun]

I wonder how Zelensky commented right before Rusia took over Crimea.

[Ludicus]

US warns Russia conflict with Ukraine would be 'horrific'

Asked about the call, Zelenskiy said he did not consider the situation more tense than before. “There is a feeling abroad that there is war here. That’s not the case. we don’t need this panic.”

From my point of view, Russia isn’t about to attack Ukraine. It would be pointless.I'm sick of this tragicomedy. As Hollywood very well knows, it is hard to come up with villains as good as the Russians, he is the accent, he is the corpulence, he is the truculence, he is the mafia. Ukraine has a history with Americans, both Republicans and Democrats.
Biden's son, when he was a drug addict and in and out of rehab, was on the board of a Ukrainian company (he was also in a Chinese company). He didn't even have to set foot in Kiev. In the Trumpist gang, Rudy Giuliani and Paul Manafort, among others, served as messengers of the deals between Trump, "Ukraine is a great country, I have many Ukrainian friends," and multi-millionaire Victor Pinchuk. As soon as Zelensky replaced Poroshenko, Trump renewed vows of friendship and cooperation. In several phone calls with the Ukrainian President he tried to get Ukraine to investigate the connections of Biden junior in order to get rid of his father. Ukraine is also one of the most corrupt countries in the world, where everything has to be paid for with bribes, as any powerless and penniless Ukrainian knows.
NATO went into disgrace and bankruptcy after the interference in Libya. Obama regretted a thousand times over the manu militari regime change that led Libya into outlaw territory. And he also realized that Cameron and Sarkozy, two mediocre statesmen, had received money from Gaddafi for their campaigns and were now trying to hush up the affair, when the Libyan's son denounced them. Nato began to struggle, since without the Americans it does not exist.
With the entrance of Trump on the scene, in Putin's hand, Nato was threatened with extinction and lack of funds. It was saved by Ukraine. No wonder that the most warmongers in this feud are the heads of NATO. When it comes to Putin, a bully who exceeds the villain in James Bond, it is hard to disagree. Putin's power was growing, and nobody in Europe seemed interested in stopping him.
Russian money was very well received in London, and still is, it was well received in America, before the sanctions, it was well received everywhere. Ukraine has one part pro-Russian and another leaning on Western money, and will never be a member of NATO nor does it have to be. One should not underestimate Putin and his secret war.
Putin is dangerous, but making Ukraine a casus belli is even more dangerous.
It is not in the interest of the military-industrial complex (yes, it exists) to stand still or have their toys rusted out. The Persian Gulf countries are armed, to whom can more weapons be sold? A war far away from America and where Europeans feel involved is ideal because a war with China is an inconvenient war.
Even the anti-Belicist Biden cannot convince an overly powerful lobby.Biden has been convinced that an external enemy will unite the divided Americans. Televisions need a war, more ratings.
It remains to be seen how the Republicans will react, with Trump involved in the imbroglio. Lindsay Graham has been quiet. With this insanity, worthy of Gore Vidal's essays, or Monty Python's comedies, who wins? China. With a big smile. The West doesn't come to its senses.

[Legio_Italica]

I can only suspect Zelensky is trying to cajole more support from NATO while also trying to appease Moscow by blaming the West. He has very little to lose by criticizing NATO and quite alot by giving Putin the slightest pretext to pull the trigger.

Ukraine has warned that Russia has "almost completed" its build-up of forces that could be used for an offensive against the country, compounding fears that Moscow could launch an invasion at any time.

According to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's latest intelligence assessment -- shared exclusively Tuesday with CNN -- Russia has now deployed more than 127,000 troops in the region.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europ...ntl/index.html

"Had a long phone conversation with POTUS," Zelensky tweeted.

"Discussed recent diplomatic efforts on de-escalation and agreed on joint actions for the future. Thanked President Joe Biden for the ongoing military assistance."

Biden and Zelensky also discussed the coordinated diplomatic efforts regarding European security.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukra...2-nato-1672997

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Two arguments against a russian invasion:

Mud season is coming End of February in Ukraine/Russia:

https://c7.alamy.com/comp/C45MNR/ger...942-C45MNR.jpg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa

Winter Olympics (4. Februar 2022 – 20. Februar 2022)

Does really anyone here believes Mr. Putin wants to annoy the show of Mr. Xi?

I'm curios of the intelligence informations of US, UK, Australia, NZ and Canada, which are known to be very ineffective in espionage outside of technological means.

And after Gulf war II i'm cautious, when the CIA claims, it has believable informations.

[Basilius]

Morticia I want to to address your post in your other thread, as well as here, as I don't really understand what you're arguing or what your preferred policy outcome is.

Mithradates was correct in pointing out that the "Nato Expansion" line is a Russian myth, which I can reinforce if you like. Further, as the Baltics are in NATO, it's strange to say that Ukraine would somehow be more threatening. In fact an even bigger point here is that Russia is uninvadable in general because of it's stockpile of Nuclear Weapons. A conventional invasion is not only firmly impossible, but it's not even desirable by any NATO member.

This is a red herring though, because while Putin is trying to make this about NATO inclusion, Ukraine has not been invited into NATO. That its people are warming up to the idea is due to the military and cyber aggression of Russia, you know, annexing part of their country. More threatening to Putin is the Ukraine desire to join the EU, which would enrichen the country and progress it as a Democracy that is harder to control with corruption. Which would in turn inspire the Russian people to even more critically examine their own government.

I'm curios of the intelligence informations of US, UK, Australia, NZ and Canada, which are known to be very ineffective in espionage outside of technological means.

The Ukraine Intelligence backs up the claim of 130k Russian troops on the country's border (including in Belarus).

Two arguments against a russian invasion:

This is such a bizarre statement. What are we supposed to do with this information? Relax everyone, no need to worry? That Russia has the positioning and tactical capability of conquering the country is both a sufficient and necessary impetus to, you know, prevent this from happening should Putin will it. Every country has an iron-right of self-defense, and hand waiving away the threat is not only cruel, but sinister.

What's Really Going on Here

There are a number of users here who are Russian sympathizers and aren't receptive to any argument that puts the US & NATO on the "good" side, even when there's such an obliviously moral and strategic benefit to protecting Ukraine.

Everything about what's going on positions Russia as the aggressor state, and yet there is a strange attempt to make it seem as if the US and NATO are to blame, or at least equally so. As if the Ukrainian people are just pawns that should be denied the agency to join whatever economic and military institutions are best for their country's wellbeing.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Honestly, i don't care about your pro-american media evidence. I heard and remember "No Nato Expansion eastwards" being in the news 1991/1992.

So you literally can spare this "But no written treaty nonsense".

The Baltic States are no real danger for Russia, as long as no cruise missiles are deployed. They have not the demographic, industrial basis fór an attack on Russia. Military replenishment must come across the Baltic Sea.

The Ukraine on the other hand has a big demographic and industrial basis to be a threat platform against Russia.

And you can lie as much as you want, that Ukrainian population wants to join Nato.


The majority doesn't want. In fact there is a split between western Ukraine (Nationalistic, "pro-western") and eastern Ukraine (prorussian).

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/woch...nein-li.208255

I don't want to be dragged into another war, where we are dragged in because american warhawk think tanks want everywhere US-Hegemony because democracy aka some faction of this country support limitless american business.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[IMG]https://miro.medium.com/max/1010/1*oFUwAlPwedEhpiSlsp-9HQ.jpeg[/IMG]

And ukrainian President Zelensky is saying there is no immediately danger of an invasion.

Honestly i don't care what the intelligence of thev former nationalistic oligarch Porochenko is saying.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petro_Poroshenko

There are also a number of users here who are born US Imperialists that aren't receptive to any argument that US & NATO has ever done something wrong in history.