Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Alastor]

Way to miss mine. Japan was surrendering to a democracy, we're talking about a fascist dictatorship here.

Right and democratic bombs don't kill. They hug you to sleep.

Oh please. That's like saying that in 1945 nazi Germany was fighting for freedom.

Yes actually. At that point the Germans were. Since their country was being invaded, they were fighting for their freedom.

Ukraine was already being invaded. At least now it gets to send a few thousand (soon tens of thousands at this rate) of invaders straight to hell. Slava Ukraini! Geroyam slava!

You know what, I'm not surprised. You said earlier you'd rather see the world end than lose to Putin, why would you care if just a few thousands more die. If they are Russians even better. They are not humans afterall. They are animals. But then again you do expect those same animals to topple Putin for you right? Those same invaders whose deaths you are cheering. Then it's shocking when they vote for him instead.

[Gallus]

Right and democratic bombs don't kill. They hug you to sleep.

Haven't you heard, people living in dictatorships are not human. Bombing them is a mercy really.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Right and democratic bombs don't kill. They hug you to sleep.

It's not about the bombs. It's about what happens after you surrender.

Yes actually. At that point the Germans were. Since their country was being invaded, they were fighting for their freedom.

I'm not going to entertain this particular point of the discussion further. I must only say that I am disgusted.

You know what, I'm not surprised. You said earlier you'd rather see the world end than lose to Putin, why would you care if just a few thousands more die.

It is better to die free than to live in bondage.

If they are Russians even better. They are not humans afterall. They are animals. But then again you do expect those same animals to topple Putin for you right? Those same invaders whose deaths you are cheering. Then it's shocking when they vote for him instead.

I'm Russian. This won't work on me.

[Bande Nere]

1 March

More than 70 Ukrainian soldiers were killed during Russian shelling of a military base in Okhtyrka, according to Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, the governor of Sumy Oblast.^[325] A Russian missile later hit the regional administration building on Freedom Square during a bombardment of Kharkiv, killing 10 people and injuring another 20.^[326]

In southern Ukraine, the city of Kherson was reported to be under attack by Russian forces.^[327]

The Ukrainian government announced it would sell war bonds to pay its armed forces.^[328]

The Verkhovna Rada stated in the morning that the Armed Forces of Belarus had joined Russia's invasion and had entered the Chernihiv Oblast. UNIAN stated that a column of 33 military vehicles had entered the region.^[329] Hours prior, Belarus's president Alexander Lukashenko said that Belarus would not join the war, and claimed that Russian troops were not attacking Ukraine from Belarusian territory.^[330]

After Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that it would hit targets to stop "information attacks," missiles struck broadcasting infrastructure for the primary television and radio towers in Kyiv, taking TV channels off the air.^[331] Ukranian officials said the attack killed five people and damaged the nearby Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial Center, Ukraine’s main Holocaust memorial.^[332][333]


Lukashenko being Lukashenko. Belarus is a perfect example of a Russian puppet state. Any of you want to live in Belarus?

[Ludicus]

The UN does exist

The American and the International right disagrees.The UN is left-wing, useless, etc.etc. ad nausea. It exists, but in practice it has no power.UN General Assembly Holds Session on Ukraine

As Israel (the most condemned nation in the history of the United Nations) knows very well, the voting in non binding.

[EmperorBatman999]

Yes actually. At that point the Germans were. Since their country was being invaded, they were fighting for their freedom.

Yes, their freedom to go back to killing the Jews and Communists had they somehow survived and gotten their Endsieg.

[Alastor]

It's not about the bombs. It's about what happens after you surrender.

And what happens when you surrender is that you are treated with respect, love and care. We have many recent examples from Iraq for instance showcasing that. Please. It's war, war is ugly, occupations are uglier.

I'm not going to entertain this particular point of the discussion further. I must only say that I am disgusted.

I claimed Germans were fighting for their freedom, I didn't specify they were nazis. But I guess in your worldview all Germans were nazis. So you are disgusted, good for you. If your argument is "shame" I can safely conclude you have nothing better to offer to this debate. That is indeed a shame.

It is better to die free than to live in bondage.

Then die. But don't enforce your ridiculous moralistic nonsense on everyone else. Others may not necessarily share your suicidal tendencies.

I'm Russian. This won't work on me.

Because boomerang bigots don't exist? I don't care what you are. I'm not pursuing an ad hominem here. I care what you say. And you were cheering for the deaths of those filthy invaders, clamoring for more. If your sole defense to that is "welp, I'm Russian" newsflash, who cares?

Yes, their freedom to go back to killing the Jews and Communists had they somehow survived and gotten their Endsieg.

No, their freedom to live really, without being killed, raped and tortured by an invading force. Well multiple invading forces. Not that they really managed it that well.

[Bande Nere]

Yes actually. At that point the Germans were. Since their country was being invaded, they were fighting for their freedom.

They kept killing jews while being invaded on two sides, so forgive me if I raise my doubts about "germans fighting for freedom in '45". They weren't free to start with.

[Tureuki]

Sanctions targeting Russian civilians is getting more and more ridiculous, Russian tennis players are getting banned from international tournaments? What is the point of this?

[Alastor]

They kept killing jews while being invaded on two sides, so forgive me if I raise my doubts about "germans fighting for freedom in '45". They weren't free to start with.

They were killing Jews when? When it was just Berlin left too? Or the people of Berlin weren't fighting for their lives either. But for the right to kill others. Guys, enough. I get it ok, all Germans were nazis and nazis are not humans. I get it. But that line of thinking it's rather childish don't you think?

[Lord Thesaurian]

Sanctions targeting Russian civilians is getting more and more ridiculous, Russian tennis players are getting banned from international tournaments? What is the point of this?

Mostly virtue signaling. Time will tell if the effort to cut off wealthy Russians from western revenue will change domestic attitudes towards Putin.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

And what happens when you surrender is that you are treated with respect, love and care.

Lmao. Good one.

I claimed Germans were fighting for their freedom, I didn't specify they were nazis. But I guess in your worldview all Germans were nazis. So you are disgusted, good for you. If your argument is "shame" I can safely conclude you have nothing better to offer to this debate. That is indeed a shame.

I'm not going to entertain your claim that nazis were, at any point, fighting for freedom.

Then die. But don't enforce your ridiculous moralistic nonsense on everyone else. Others may not necessarily share your suicidal tendencies.

It seems a great number of Ukranians share my sentiment. They fight not for their own lives, but for the lives of their families, so that they may have a chance to live free.

Because boomerang bigots don't exist? I don't care what you are. I'm not pursuing an ad hominem here. I care what you say.

You know what yeah, I think I'm non human, and that my family is inhuman (including those living in Moscow). This is a great argument you're making. Definitely should earn you a raise.

And you were cheering for the deaths of those filthy invaders, clamoring for more. If your sole defense to that is "welp, I'm Russian" newsflash, who cares?

I lament their death, but they have chosen to obey the orders of a fascist and invade a peaceful country to enslave it. To quote the Ukranian ambassador to the UN: "There is no purgatory for war criminals. They go straight to hell."

[Canterbury]

So, given the evidence, what is Putin's calculus and what has been/will be the outcome, past, present and in the future?

Objective. Putin decides that he will re-establish a Russian empire in the west by force. This will be achieved by re-equipped armed forces, protected by a nuclear umbrella, which will guarantee that there is no NATO intervention. He decides that it will be worth burning off all the support he has in the west, as well as causing intense economic/financial pain, and making him dependent on China, in the short term at least. He believes that Western sanctions will be endured, and will not endure.

1. This empire starts with a long planned, large-scale invasion of the Ukraine with the objective of conquering large portions of the country while setting up a puppet state in the remainder. This would covered by a false flag operation designed to muddy the waters and create enough delay and division both within and outside Ukraine that any resupply of Ukraine would not eventuate in a significant way, as well as a diplomatic posture that unequivocally stated that Russia was not about to invade, which is in turn was designed to do exactly the same.

The false flag fails horribly, with the US and Britain narrating Russia's actions, but the diplomatic deception is largely successful, in that there was not an absolute flood of equipment/ammunition going into Ukraine before the start of the war. Russia's cynicism however has an appalling long term consequence, in that Russia's diplomatic credibility goes to zero in the West, and will remain that way forever. This is part of the price Putin is willing to pay. He also believes that any increased NATO/EU unity will be short term and he will be able to prevent any further expansion of either by more nuclear intimidation.

2. The initial plan of attack will be an attempt at a decapitation strike, with the government eliminated by Spec Ops or simply by scaring it away, and with the cities taken by coup de main accompanied by SRBM's. Little air power will be used. The Ukrainian army will be isolated in the east. The invasion itself will also be accompanied by an explicit nuclear threat so there would be no ambiguity about Russian intentions, though there will be no cyber attacks on Western powers to avoid creating a direct western military response. The war will be too brief for sanctions have any effect.

The first component of the plan, collapsing the government, could have succeeded if the State Department offer to Zelensky to remove him from Ukraine had been accepted, but instead he turns into a global hero, for what that is worth. The Coup de main also fails horribly, as Russian units, deployed piecemeal, are sliced up by defenders and suffer extremely heavy losses, though that is irrelevant to Putin. The sanctions imposed by the West are also at the severe end of what was expected, possibly even worse than the worst expected. The Ukrainian army however remains in the east, unable to intervene, its fate largely unknown. The nuclear threat is also entirely successful in deterring direct western involvement, and the threat of cyber war largely disappears. For now.

3. Frustrated by initial failure, Putin decides to commit to the third phase of his war in Ukraine, the bombardment of its major cities in order to force military/political collapse. This will start small but then accelerate. This will be combined with negotiations in order to actively demand Ukrainian surrender to Russian terms, with each passing day and each failed round increasing the cost for Ukraine. This is of course based on the idea that NATO will not intervene, and that faced with the annihilation of Ukraine it will begin to pressure Ukraine to accept the terms before internal pressure created by Russian atrocities forces NATO to intervene. Putin does not want any escalation, so is very deliberately making it clear that he will use nuclear weapons if need be.

On the evidence so far, this is a good calculation. The Russian slaughter of Ukrainian civilians has started, and there is no sign that, under a nuclear threat, the West is doing anything other than wringing its hands. There is no sign at all, yet, of uncontrolled escalation by the West, or any meaningful attempt at deterrence. Ukraine has effectively been put in a Russian torture chamber, one created out of a nuclear threat. The crucial issue is how much of this torture can the Ukrainian people endure, and how much can the West watch them endure before it demands surrender, or engages in an uncontrolled, unsignalled military escalation?

4. Assuming success, Putin is expecting that the sanctions, while even more painful than hoped, will be removed with the end of the war, with the threat of the continuing destruction of Ukraine if they are not, and with the use of energy and food as weapons. In defeat, Ukraine is now a hostage to Russian conventional power, just as much as the West is hostage to Russian nuclear power. Another Russian exploitation of Ukraine awaits, potentially another Holodomor.

On the evidence so far, this is a bad miscalculation. If Ukraine is defeated the West will turn sanctions into a permanent economic/financial/technological reconfiguration. Oligarchs money might be unfrozen, as will Russia's reserves, but the West wont allow Russia any freedom at all. Widespread western private sector abandonment of Russia is happening spontaneously, and will be matched by state sector. Any further persecution of the Ukraine will be used as evidence that Russia must be subject to higher and higher levels of exclusion from the West.

5. Long term, any structural change in Russia's strategic environment will be trivial or controllable.

Absolutely wrong, and the real defeat for Russia in all this. Germany, the most powerful nation in Europe, is now rearming, and has undergone a radical socio/political shift. It is now a genuine Great Power. Unlike Russia. The EU is beginning its evolution into a genuine superpower, and there will be a rush to join it because of its new security function. The USA and Britain return armoured units to NATO frontline states permanently. The USA will also begin to rearm in general, and will go energy independent. Europe's vulnerability to Russian energy will be gone in five years, the USA's in less. Russian access to Western tech, business and finance will go to zero. Russia will be economically, financially and technically dependent on China within five years, little more than a client state.

[StarDreamer]

It is quite frankly insane that people here think that people should surrender if a dictator threatens nuclear war.
You accept that and then he will keep on demanding, demanding and demanding. It would never be enough. All you would do is postpone such a war by a few months.
Have we learnt nothing from history? It is partly because Putin threatens with nuclear war that the EU and others are sanctioning Russia and supplying arms.

[Alastor]

Lmao. Good one.

Thank you. Glad you appreciate it.

I'm not going to entertain your claim that nazis were, at any point, fighting for freedom.

Then don't. What do I care what you accept? Besides I said Germans, I didn't say nazis.

It seems a great number of Ukranians share my sentiment. They fight not for their own lives, but for the lives of their families, so that they may have a chance to live free.

Yes and a great number of them will die and their brethren suffer. Their country in ruins and their future dim. Which could have been avoided, with a little appeasement. Maybe.

You know what yeah, I think I'm non human, and that my family is inhuman (including those living in Moscow). This is a great argument you're making.

Ok, if you say so. I mean, I'm not judging. If you are a non-human you are an interesting specimen, you seem to have developed some modicum or sapience, however rudimentary.

I lament their death, but they have chosen to obey the orders of a fascist and invade a peaceful country to enslave it. To quote the Ukranian ambassador to the UN: "There is no purgatory for war criminals. They go straight to hell."

You lament their deaths. Right. Let's see how you lament their deaths again:

Ukraine was already being invaded. At least now it gets to send a few thousand (soon tens of thousands at this rate) of invaders straight to hell. Slava Ukraini! Geroyam slava!

Odd, seems less of a lament and more of a consolation. At least they got to kill them you say. So sad.

It is quite frankly insane that people here think that people should surrender if a dictator threatens nuclear war.
You accept that and then he will keep on demanding, demanding and demanding. It would never be enough. All you would do is postpone such a war by a few months.
Have we learnt nothing from history? It is partly because Putin threatens with nuclear war that the EU and others are sanctioning Russia and supplying arms.

Sure. Don't bow down. And die. You, your family, the future, this world. Morons you say. Yeah. I'm beginning to see that.

[Bande Nere]

They were killing Jews when? When it was just Berlin left too? Or the people of Berlin weren't fighting for their lives either. But for the right to kill others. Guys, enough. I get it ok, all Germans were nazis and nazis are not humans. I get it. But that line of thinking it's rather childish don't you think?

They could have surrendered, but...

And look, I'm from Italy, and know my history during that period. Nothing to be proud of. I also understand how propaganda campaigns can brainwash people's minds into doing that is clearly crazy (20 years of Mediaset brainwashing resulting in 20 years of Berlusconi in power; Fox News doing the same for unelectable clowns of which Trump was only the most succesful; nazi propaganda to make germans accept all sorts of crazy things etc...)

The problem today is that the Russian world has been fed lies for so long that their understanding of reality is quite different from what we in the west might think. Especially among the older population.

[StarDreamer]

Sure. Don't bow down. And die. You, your family, the future, this world. Morons you say. Yeah. I'm beginning to see that.

I would call such a bluff. If that dictators generals also want to die in this giant MAD fireball, then fine, that happens. I'm not about to surrender my freedoms to someone that would rather kill everyone if that person doesn't get to dominate everyone like a petulant child.

[EmperorBatman999]

No, their freedom to live really, without being killed, raped and tortured by an invading force. Well multiple invading forces. Not that they really managed it that well.

And if they had won, they would have gone back to doing what they were doing since 1933: killing people on the basis of racial science and political hatred.

The pillaging of the Red Army in Germany was horrendous, but it was also provoked by German soldiers doing the same to Soviet cities and villages during Barbarossa. You don't get to avoid the consequences of something like that.

[Tureuki]

https://twitter.com/clashreport/stat...92841526251526

Bayraktars are making quite a name for themselves.

[Sir Adrian]

Kenya's message to Russia

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