Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Cyclops]

Well Ukraine has done pretty well resisting Putin this long.

I guess Putin's burner accounts have waited to celebrate for two years, can they wait a little longer? It'd be devastating if they called it yet again and then the deal went through congress.

If it is the end it's because the US decided it was so. It's been heartening to see Putins theives humiliated for so long, less edifying to see Mr Trump and his media allies so keen to further Russian interests.

Remember when that one thief matched on Moscow? And that unsinkable missile ship?

As for Navalny, it wouldn't have been thd first time an imprisoned reform campaigner emerged from gaol. I suspect Putin is close to death or fears defeat so badly he's closing a bunch of accounts. He invades neighbours like a Tsar, he sends people to Siberia like a Tsar, let's see if he can die like Tsar.

[Ludicus]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56181084

The cynical sanctification of Navalny by the liberal establishment serves as an important reminder that they don’t have a problem with conservatism, nationalism, xenophobia or racism..Now that he’s dead, I suppose the man will be buried by the myth of the hero.

Why he died is the crucial question. Although we still don't know the cause of Navalny's death, the truth is that, directly or indirectly, Navalny died because he was part of the opposition to Putin's regime. It was this regime that led to his death, in the same way that Humberto Delgado died because of the regime led by Salazar in Portugal.
55 years after the murder of Humberto Delgado
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Polish Farmers Resume Ukraine Border Blockade Over Imports.
Von der Leyen's team split over free trade with Ukraine

--Edit.
Anyway,it seems that L.T. has a point there, when he talks about the "cynical santification of Navalny". In fact,Foreign Affairs Council: Press remarks by High ... - EEAS

We have just issued a statement on Alexei’s death, and I have proposed to the Ministers to rename our Global Human Rights sanctions regime with his name.

The Navalny case: Conspiracy to serve foreign policy- Amazon
Published a few days ago. I still haven't read the book. I don’t know exactly what to think of it.

But this is disturbing.

And this,

[Coughdrop addict]

Well Ukraine has done pretty well resisting Putin this long.

I guess Putin's burner accounts have waited to celebrate for two years, can they wait a little longer? It'd be devastating if they called it yet again and then the deal went through congress.

If it is the end it's because the US decided it was so. It's been heartening to see Putins theives humiliated for so long, less edifying to see Mr Trump and his media allies so keen to further Russian interests.

Within a few years the apologists will be telling us all the SMO went perfectly, Russia crushed NATO, and Putin is a military genius.

As for Trump and the Republicans, they are giddy at the thought of surrendering the United States to Putin. They think he will make them oligarchs and they will be able to have absolute power over the "lower orders" with zero accountability, the ultimate goal of Republicanism. I take a small measure of comfort knowing that it is far more likely once Putin is in control of the country he will decide the Republicans have outlived their usefulness.

[Ludicus]

Nearly 70% of Americans want talks to end war in Ukraine

Roughly 70% of Americans want the Biden administration to push Ukraine toward a negotiated peace with Russia as soon as possible, according to a new survey from the Harris Poll and the Quincy Institute.
The Harris/Quincy Institute poll involved an online survey of 2,090 American adults from Feb. 8 to 12. The results are weighted to ensure a representative sample of the U.S. population. The margin of error is 2.5% using a 95% confidence level.
... Meanwhile, 54% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans favored conditioning aid on diplomatic talks

[PointOfViewGun]

Nearly 70% of Americans want talks to end war in Ukraine

Then they should find ways to pressure Putin into negotiating a peace deal.

[Ludicus]

That's the million dollar question.

Barely 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine can still defeat Russia, finds poll...

The shift in sentiment – this time last year, more Europeans than not said Ukraine must regain all its lost territory – will demand that politicians take a more “realistic” approach that focuses on defining what an acceptable peace must actually mean, the report’s authors argue.
“In order to make the case for continued European support for Ukraine, EU leaders will need to change how they talk about the war,” said co-author Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which commissioned the polling.

Durão Barroso was once a reckless Maoist student in his youth, hailing from wealthy families, expelled from the MRPP (Marxist-Leninist with Maoist inspiration) party for stealing furniture from the headquarters of the University of Lisbon to transport it to the MRPP headquarters. He ended his career at Goldman Sachs. An opportunist who was present at the Azores summit where he received Bush, Blair, and Aznar, and who helped declare to the world the invasion of Iraq. This later paved the way for his career in the EU. But in general, I agree with what he said last night,

EU not prepared to include country at war in EU

The most difficult question is this: the European Union (EU) is not prepared to include a country at war like the war in Ukraine because that would be to bring the war into the European Union. Sooner or later, we have to prepare for a possible agreement of understanding,”

There’s an aggressor [Russia] and an aggressed country [Ukraine] – it’s not a symmetrical situation and, that being the case, what we need is peace. We haven’t reached that position yet, but this is very important. Otherwise, we’re giving [Vladimir] Putin reasons to prolong the war for years and years,” he added.

“The problem is European because if Putin wins the war in Ukraine, it’s not just a defeat for the Ukrainians. It’s also a defeat for us [Europeans],” he said.

Barroso recalled that Ukraine wanted to join the EU after the “Orange Revolution” (2004/2005), but there was no consensus among member states, so an association agreement was proposed.

“During that period, I had contacts with President Putin. He never objected to Ukraine establishing an association agreement or even becoming part of the European Union. He made it very clear that he did not accept Ukraine joining NATO, as he emphasised in Bucharest in 2008,” he said.

But, in 2014, at the time of signing an association agreement, pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych said he could not sign because Russia would not allow it. “Putin added that if it had been Russia’s regular forces, Kyiv ‘would be taken in less than two weeks’,” Barroso recounted.
“Seven days later, I reported the conversation to the Commission, and then it was leaked. The Kremlin didn’t like it. It didn’t deny it but claimed that I had referred to Putin’s words out of context,” he said…

Etc.

[PointOfViewGun]

That's the million dollar question.

Is it? Why are all the content coming from you banks on the idea of Ukraine's responsibility to negotiate then?

[Stario]

Avdiivka taken GG Ukraine; I can feel the "cope" coming from the pro Zelenskyy crowd, the "Ukranian flag" virtue signalling folks over at farcebook/twitter/tiktok etc.
How many billions of tax payer $ has murica wasted and continues to burn through in Ukraine since 2014? Meanwhile Kamala Harris still claiming in her press conference that Ukraine is winning and Russia is loosing, the Russian economy is down the dunny, Russia has lost so much men and equipment bla bla bla...and most muricans just continue to eat up all that 🤣

[PointOfViewGun]

Avdiivka taken GG Ukraine; I can feel the "cope" coming from the pro Zelenskyy crowd, the "Ukranian flag" virtue signalling folks over at farcebook/twitter/tiktok etc.
How many billions of tax payer $ has murica wasted and continues to burn through in Ukraine since 2014? Meanwhile Kamala Harris still claiming in her press conference that Ukraine is winning and Russia is loosing, the Russian economy is down the dunny, Russia has lost so much men and equipment bla bla bla...and most muricans just continue to eat up all that 藍

The real cope is trying to use Avdiivka as a victory point when you claimed that Ukrainian defense was about to collapse a year ago. The confirmed Black Sea fleet losses of Russia alone make the investment in Ukraine a worthy move. Why don't you tell us what you've been eating up?

[Loyt]

I've missed a lot of this. Are we still collectively coping about Ukraine's chances or are we going to admit now that Ukraine is straight ed?

Ukraine was f###ed from the day Putin decided to take away Crimea. Even more after feb 2022. Yet it still stands, so ofc it's far from done deal.

[Cyclops]

Ukraine was f###ed from the day Putin decided to take away Crimea. Even more after feb 2022. Yet it still stands, so ofc it's far from done deal.

Yes thats my view.

Russia won in 2014. They've decided to rerun the war, and there's no way the Ukrainians win this. They're allowed to fight.

US support for Ukraine is cost effective, it doesn't seem to have exposed Taiwan (the current main game). Russia's military capacity has been degraded and the threat value diminished, and the EU has had a dry run defending its eastern border.

The US is winning this by so far its not funny. It'd be nice if Ukraine got anything back from Putin the Thief but likely he'll die before he could pay any reparations, and what would Russia pay with?

Are single villages now earning Vlad online triumphs? Two years ago the talk was of cooking pigs in kettles and occupying Kyiv. Five day operation, in and out...it's past day 700...but confidence remains high among the as yet uncubed Russian forces.

Remember when one of Putins lieutenants matched on Moscow? Surely that's not going to happen again.

[Stario]

US support for Ukraine is cost effective, it doesn't seem to have exposed Taiwan

I think Taiwan will be next - significantly "exposed". And Russia will probably go on to pick up Uzbekistan et al. (Former CCCP states).

[reavertm]

I think Taiwan will be next - significantly "exposed". And Russia will probably go on to pick up Uzbekistan et al. (Former CCCP states).

It's easy to get confused when your history clock stops at convenient time. Uzbekistan is home to Timurid Empire for instance and has much richer and better documented history than Russia, calling it former SU state is just disrespectful. I suppose we should start calling Russia what it is, a Swedish colony.
And the way you abbreviate Soviet Union tells something.
Swedish colony will be lucky if it survives Putin's death.

In other news, SC has just lost another 300mln worth "AWACS" A-50.

[fkizz]

I've missed a lot of this. Are we still collectively coping about Ukraine's chances or are we going to admit now that Ukraine is straight ed?

Out of carelessness The rus airforce losing six airplanes (or more?) on the 72 hours after didn't help with the narrative "fall of avdivka means russia won". Those are assets that can't be exactly replaced just by catching a few conscripts on the street.

No matter how well the russian AF does, count on the Kremlin to confuse and screw everything up afterwards. Every single time

[Stario]

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/it-wil...rs-in-war/amp/

This is coming from a Ukranian source.
Ukraine is said to have lost 500,000 soldiers (killed or seriously wounded), since special military operation/war. Oof!

[Ludicus]

Is it? Why are all the content coming from you banks on the idea of Ukraine's responsibility to negotiate then?

Probably because US Republicans seem ready to throw Ukraine under the bus. Furthermore, Ukraine needs/wants to mobilize 500,000 troops and that's seems impossible. Also, Ukraine's defence minister says half of western arms arrive

Ukraine’s defence minister, Rustem Umerov, said his country was “losing territory” in its grinding war with Russia because “50%” of weapons promised by western partners failed to reach Kyiv on time.

German lawmakers reject motion to send Taurus missiles ...

Why? because they are afraid of any future retaliatory measures from Russia.

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Published last September. It’s worth reading.
Alexei Navalny and Ukraine: how the Russian “opposition” leader’s team sees the end of the war- The Ukrainer

[PointOfViewGun]

Probably because US Republicans seem ready to throw Ukraine under the bus. Furthermore, Ukraine needs/wants to mobilize 500,000 troops and that's seems impossible. Also, Ukraine's defence minister says half of western arms arrive
German lawmakers reject motion to send Taurus missiles ...
Why? because they are afraid of any future retaliatory measures from Russia.

These do not address what I asked you. The amount of help Ukraine is getting or their defensive capabilities do not determine why Ukraine is the primary responsible partner to negotiate for peace. What they show instead is that Ukraine's allies need to raise gear in the way they're helping.

[Ludicus]

The amount of help Ukraine is getting or their defensive capabilities do not determine why Ukraine is the primary responsible partner to negotiate for peace. What they show instead is that Ukraine's allies need to raise gear in the way they're helping.

From what I've read, it would take a miracle for aid to Ukraine to be approved by Congress.

Immigration, Ukraine distrust and January 6 games - Guardian

(…) speaker after speaker highlighted the crisis at the southern border, variously describing it as “a war zone” where “thugs, Islamic extremists and Chinese spies” are staging an “invasion”. Second, this year’s CPAC theme was “Where globalism goes to die”, a rare foregrounding of foreign policy that embraced “America first” isolationism and advocated no more funding for Ukraine.

Vance and others were quick to draw a contrast between the border crisis and Washington’s obsession with the war in Ukraine. They questioned why taxpayer dollars should fund a conflict 6,000 miles away instead of tackling problems at home.

Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama said: “We’re the one that forced this war because we kept forcing Nato on Ukraine and showing Russia, hey, we’re going to build military bases on your borders. And Putin said, no, no, you’re not going to do that.

“I haven’t voted for any money to go to Ukraine because I know they can’t win. You hate that they’ve had 300,000 or 400,000 people killed, so – Russians also. You hate that we supported this. We’re pushing them out in front of the guns or out in front of the bus, I guess you’d speak. It’s an atrocity but they can’t win.”

Tuberville added: “Donald Trump will stop it when he first gets in … He knows there’s no winning for Ukraine. He can work a deal with Putin.”

There was little support here for Congress to pass a national security bill that would provide military funding for Ukraine.

The Ukraine War at two years: By the numbers

(…) there is now little realistic prospect of further Ukrainian territorial gains on the battlefield, and there is a significant risk that Ukraine might exhaust its manpower and munitions and lay itself open to a devastating Russian counterattack.
The only and best solution, they say, is to drive all sides to the negotiating table before Ukraine is destroyed.

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Who is the primary responsible partner for to negotiate for peace?



Negotiating an End to the War in Ukraine:

Comparative evidence indicates that since 1800, negotiations have been the most common way to end wars between states: 38 (or 68 percent) of the 56 inter-state wars that were fought between 1800 and 1980 ended through negotiation; between 1989 and 2010 four of the eight inter-state armed conflicts resulted in apeace agreement. Peace negotiations most often begin when conflict parties feel that they can better achieve their goals through negotiation than on the battlefield; namely the point at which a conflict is “ripe for resolution” (…)

[PointOfViewGun]

From what I've read, it would take a miracle for aid to Ukraine to be approved by Congress.
Immigration, Ukraine distrust and January 6 games - Guardian
The Ukraine War at two years: By the numbers
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Who is the primary responsible partner for to negotiate for peace?
Negotiating an End to the War in Ukraine:

What's the reason for your cowering away from providing a direct answer? Are you trying to avoid providing a clear position to avoid scrutiny? What I asked you is not a complex topic. Through your posts you always talk as if the only responsibility lies on Ukraine meanwhile its Russia that's trying to invade Ukraine without a genuine interest in any peace deal.

[Mithradates]

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/it-wil...rs-in-war/amp/

This is coming from a Ukranian source.
Ukraine is said to have lost 500,000 soldiers (killed or seriously wounded), since special military operation/war. Oof!

Right.
Zelenskiy says 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed since Russia invaded

31,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed in this war. Not 300,000, not 150,000 ... (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is lying there ... But nevertheless, this is a big loss for us.