Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Kyriakos]

Ukraine is (for the time being) backed by the US.
Palestine (sadly or not) isn't backed by any country that is relevant.
Fwiw, I am definitely of the view that Palestine should be its own country, and am against how Israel treats it.

[conon394]

Palestine

You would think they a little more pissed off by the way the arab and Muslim world payed nothing more than empty words...

That said They are kinda still backed by Iran pretty strongly as long you are down with Hezbollah

[Kyriakos]

Those middle eastern powers just aren't strong enough to matter. Imagine anyone caring if instead of the US, it was those backing Ukraine.

[conon394]

@ Ludicus

Additional item

https://www.dacis.com/budget/budget_.../N/1650_21.pdf

re Exhibit P-40a Navy purchase of M795 shells with IMX not TNT (page 4 for me not sure how it looks in not open office)

Unit price $849 - note that unit price includes pallets for transport at a cost distributed over the unit at $120. Also the US is buying IMX based shells far more stable and safe than the TNT ones Russia in buying.

The NYT article is practically fantasy w/o more than what some guy we called said and f- all we going to not let fact checking get in the way mailing this story in and getting to a long lunch with I hope more than a few stiff drinks.

Also not again same page you can see the unit cost of the Excalibur at $65,678 for 89 - pretty easy to play games if you wrap both orders together

I retirate The NYT piece is at best and being cherabitable is incredibly lazy and but looks more like and OP ED work frankly designed to show how Ukraine cant win and the US is out matched by Putin and his excellent economy. It is BS. Either way. Full stop . No numbers in budget data back up its claims and no estimates for Russian production costs based on open source data back it up.

I mean it is rather tiresome to find and wade through US budget documents but they are available and the simple fact is the US is not paying 5-6000 dollars for a basic 155mm shell. How many budget documents do you want. Nor is it paying anything but not storing them anymore to hand over 5-7 million cluster munitions to Ukraine. That's a sunk cost and now the US is not paying to maintain them. I am sure there is some nominal value assigned to them by the general services admiration or the pentagon - maybe whatever we sold at and to last time we sold some (Israel the ROK?)... But they are effectively really free.

edit more

https://www.secnav.navy.mil/fmc/fmb/..._BA_2_BOOK.pdf

page 85

Unit Price HE 155mm EX range 346 dollars inflation adjusted for for 2023 - 524 dollars.

Sorry the simple fact is the US makes basic HE 155 mm shells as cheap as Russia and their safer for the operators. There is no wonder Putin economy. Except for one cutting corners and based on an univariable boast of what Russian officials claim(*) and no actual evidence. SUre the cost of the ATK’s XM1156 Precision Guidance kit 155mm shells approaches the number in the story but that not what Russia making is and its certainly not what they are buying from North Korea on the shoot and hope it does not blow up in the tube plan.

* err were these forecasters of Russian production also certain of swarms of T14s and the whole related family of armored vehicles and SP artillery and Stealth fighters and the amazing fabulous prowess of the S-400?

so yes...

I see..all in all, irrelevant, misleading,false

So until you produce a US government budget report that puts US basic HE 155mm shells at the fantastical number claimed in the NYT story yes - irrelevant, misleading,false

edit edit more more...

It all The NYT about the winter and Russian missile production supposedly picking up no mention at all that say the Ukrainian BUK and KUB systems are apparently compatible with RIM 7 missiles of which the US and NATO have many and are being replaced?

Again its hard not to read the story as biased toward gloom. No wonder you cited it.

[conon394]

Those middle eastern powers just aren't strong enough to matter. Imagine anyone caring if instead of the US, it was those backing Ukraine.

Israel seems to take Iranian backing pretty seriously.

[PointOfViewGun]

No, I'm talking about double standards.Both have the right to defend themselves. In Ukraine, Russia started the war: a war, of course, provoked by the NATO expansion.
Israel started a war by attacking Egypt on June 5, 1967.Israel also fired the the first shots in another war against Egypt in 1956. Israel also started the invasion of Libanon. Israel also started aerial assault on targets in Syria. In fact, keeping that campaign of attacks unimpeded is one of Israel's reasons for maintaining good relations with Russia.
So, I'm talking about the western double standards.
"What we have today," according to Daniel Levy, president of the U.S./Middle East Project "is the language of peace in the service of illegal actions, disenfranchisement, and apartheid".Levy served as an Israeli peace negotiator at the Oslo-B talks under Rabin and the Taba negotiations under Ehud Barak

Yet, you try to religiously argue day and night that Ukraine should not defend itself. NATO point is just your "she was wearing a skirt" kind of argument which has no intelligent basis. So, are you not criticizing yourself here?

[Kyriakos]

The future will be great ^^

[mishkin]

nice picture, send it to the person directly responsible for what is happening in Ukraine.

Continuing with the nice analogy: "come on girl, if you had not resisted, the rapist would have finished half an hour ago"

[Alastor]

Continuing with the nice analogy: "come on girl, if you had not resisted, the rapist would have finished half an hour ago"

If you are trying to say that sometimes you need to acknowledge when you've been screwed and try to cut your losses, yes, an argument can be made for that.

Of course framing it this way is nowhere near as loaded and sensationalist as the good old, if very tired, rape analogy I keep seeing people throw around.

[mishkin]

you mean that putin should withdraw his troops and pay ukraine for the costs of the war? accept that he made a huge mistake?

I'm sorry for the lack of originality, and for its poor taste. My apologies to the hundreds of Ukrainian women raped by Russian troops who only want peace with those bastards.

[Kyriakos]

Ukraine was invaded, obviously. That doesn't mean ukrainians are humans and russians are orks. I expect rape victims to exist on both sides, as well as all other kinds of victims.

[mishkin]

Ukraine was invaded, obviously. That doesn't mean ukrainians are humans and russians are orks.

That means that the Russians are the attackers and that the Ukrainians are mainly defending their homes. And given the way the Russian army is recruited, yes, probably many of them are practically orcs.

I expect rape victims to exist on both sides

What?? This is the most absurd attempt to equate both sides that I have ever seen in my life.

[Alastor]

you mean that putin should withdraw his troops and pay ukraine for the costs of the war? accept that he made a huge mistake?

I'm sorry for the lack of originality, and for its poor taste. My apologies to the hundreds of Ukrainian women raped by Russian troops who only want peace with those bastards.

For that to happen Putin needs to lose and Russia is not really losing.

I accept the apology. But as far as your apologies to those Ukrainian women go, I don't personally think it means all that much to them, but you go ahead and do you if you feel you must.

[mishkin]

I'm sure they would appreciate your recognition of what the Russian soldiers have been doing and maybe they would accept your condolences.

[Alastor]

I'm sure they would appreciate your recognition of what the Russian soldiers have been doing and maybe they would accept your condolences.

No, no they wouldn't. Neither would those raped by the Ukrainian armed forces for that matter (~10% of the total last I checked). And they sure wouldn't appreciate your attempt to sensationalise their plight to make a moral argument that serves your agenda. It's war, rapes do happen in war and every side commits them. If Russians commits more, it has more to do with the fact they are the ones attacking than them being Russian.

[mishkin]

And they sure wouldn't appreciate your attempt to sensationalise their plight to make a moral argument that serves your agenda.

This is the only reasonable thing you have said. The attempt to excuse Russian troops for crimes they are committing and to say that ukrainian women are also raped in other circumstances and to join Kyriakos (in a slightly less wild way) in his "both sides are equal", is bs.

[Kyriakos]

But you are the one projecting the "both sides are equal" part. I didn't claim the number of raped women is equal, you simply thought I did

[Alastor]

This is the only reasonable thing you have said. The attempt to excuse Russian troops for crimes they are committing and to say that ukrainian women are also raped in other circumstances and to join Kyriakos (in a slightly less wild way) in his "both sides are equal", is bs.

The other circumstances are the same circumstances. War. Which was the point.

Also, acknowledging the realities of war and excusing it is not really the same thing.

[mishkin]

If you could just say "yes, russian soldiers should not be raping women in ukraine, killing civilians in their streets, deporting children". but all you do is say "the solution to make this stop is very easy"

[Alastor]

If you could just say "yes, russian soldiers should not be raping women in ukraine, killing civilians in their streets, deporting children". but all you do is say "the solution to make this stop is very easy"

I can happily say the Russians should not be doing that. Here "the Russians should not be doing that". Is that going to stop them? No. This is empty virtue signaling that means nothing. The reality of war is what it is.

The only way this war can realistically end and Ukraine can move on is via a negotiated settlement, which will include concessions to Russia yes, because they can't beat Russia and that's what happens when you can't win in the field. Is that easy? Not really, when did I say it's easy? There is so much bad blood and lack of trust that negotiations will actually require some real leadership, some real courage. But it still is the only realistic way.

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Meanwhile an interesting, if a bit bombastic, analysis as usual by this channel, this time about Ukraine's Spring->Summer offensive: