Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[bitterhowl]

Except it did not. Zelensky himself announced they would receive post-humous medals.

Otherwise show your proof.

I realize getting your news from russian media has got you quite confused on the subject, BTW how come there's a russian armoured column making their way to Kiev if your "reliable" media is saying your troops are only in

Here we go
https://m.facebook.com/navy.mil.gov....24444389723150
Summary - Ukrainian officials on their Facebook page says they thought those soldiers dead because of absence of communication with them. (Mr Zelensky hadn't communication with Putin at the first day too. What a surprise on a second day, yeah?)

I'm not interested at fakes.

Didn't find it on English sources, explainable - it's not a picture you want to see. They told go f yourself and they are still alive and safe. Media made a picture of cool warriors and what more important - their President told they're dead heroes. Zelensky need such a picture, a show for the world with ugly Russians.

Have you seen their streams from Kyiv? Angry mob with 20000 guns kill each other without any Russians.

[Sar1n]

https://m.facebook.com/navy.mil.gov....24444389723150

Not going to Take-your-data-book, any summary?

[sumskilz]

Just contemplate all the permament strategic change Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made. This is far worse for Russia than its colossal mistake with the Berlin Blockade in 1948, which made the Cold War certain. In 1948 Russia was unequivocally a superpower. Now its Italy with nukes.

I don't necessarily disagree with your main point, but while Russia's economy may be the size of Italy's, it's still a geographically massive country of 144 million with significant natural resources and client states, so the analogy isn't entirely accurate.

Judging by the number of conscripted soldiers captured, it seems that except for the aviotroops this first strike force(consisting of about a third of the troops involved in the "military training") was mostly composed of unprepared conscripts.

Keep in mind that the relatively small number of soldiers that have been captured are far from a representative sample. Unmotivated conscripts would be the most likely to surrender in any given circumstance.

I'm surprised that the Russians have made so little progress so far, and I think the clock may well be working against them, but if anyone has the impression that the Ukrainians have held off multiple full-scale Russian assaults against Kiev and Kharkov, I really don't think that's the case. The Russian approach at the tactical level is a little hard to understand, but as others have noted, it appears that their plan was to coerce what they wanted out of Ukraine with little or no actual fighting. I believe the Russians are well aware that significant Ukrainian civilian causalities would work against their interests, that makes taking cities difficult, and now that they've had their bluff called, they seem not to have a good plan on how to achieve their objectives.

All that said, I think it's very difficult to judge the situation at this point, other than I think those who are suggesting that Russia has lost even if it wins are probably right.

[EmperorBatman999]

I'm surprised that the Russians have made so little progress so far, and I think the clock may well be working against them, but if anyone has the impression that the Ukrainians have held off multiple full-scale Russian assaults against Kiev and Kharkov, I really don't think that's the case. The Russian approach at the tactical level is a little hard to understand, but as others have noted, it appears that their plan was to coerce what they wanted out the Ukraine with little or no actual fighting. I believe the Russians are well aware that significant Ukrainian civilian causalities would work against their interests, that makes taking cities difficult, and now that they've had their bluff called, they seem not to have a good plan on how to achieve their objectives.

All that said, I think it's very difficult to judge the situation at this point, other than I think those who are suggesting that Russia has lost even if it wins are probably right.

I was initially optimistic that Russia was indeed lagging and being held back from their objectives, but I'm not sure anymore. Having watched this video put together by a US military vet (so assuming that he knows about the nature of logistics), it seems that Russia actually went almost as far as they physically could go on the first two days. He indicates doubt that it would feasible for any army to move from the start point and hit Kyiv on the same day, even without any resistance whatsoever, just due to the physical limitations naturally imposed on fuel and the stamina of the soldiers.



The metrics for Ukrainian success/Russian failure thus lie mostly on the casualties imposed on the Russians. In this regard, it's hard to tell between Ukrainian propaganda (I don't blame them, they need to emphasize and exaggerate any success to keep morale up) what sort of damage Russia is taking to their manpower and materiel.

[Alastor]

I'm surprised that the Russians have made so little progress so far, and I think the clock may well be working against them, but if anyone has the impression that the Ukrainians have held off multiple full-scale Russian assaults against Kiev and Kharkov, I really don't think that's the case. The Russian approach at the tactical level is a little hard to understand, but as others have noted, it appears that their plan was to coerce what they wanted out the Ukraine with little or no actual fighting. I believe the Russians are well aware that significant Ukrainian civilian causalities would work against their interests, that makes taking cities difficult, and now that they've had their bluff called, they seem not to have a good plan on how to achieve their objectives.

I'm not sure if the progress they've made is too little or not. Reports are too one-sided to be trustworthy and we are only 4 days in. The US needed 40 days with a larger and better equipped force to overwhelm Iraq. If the Russians really expected a 10-day conflict without having contingencies that would be a gross miscalculation on their behalf. Too gross to be plausible without conclusive proof. I do also believe that the Russians did not expect this level of resistance and were trying initially not to cause unnecessary casualties, as you say, that they were bluffing. This is my primary concern really. Their bluff has been called and then some. So what now? Do the Russians back down? The demands of the Ukrainian side in today's talks would be unacceptable to them, so there is no easy way to do that. The alternative is an escalation, what if the Russians decide that avoiding casualties is no longer viable and start employing WMDs. They would have an excuse in that Kiev has been arming civilians en masse. The consequences of that could be catastrophic.

[Gaidin]

I'm surprised that the Russians have made so little progress so far, and I think the clock may well be working against them, but if anyone has the impression that the Ukrainians have held off multiple full-scale Russian assaults against Kiev and Kharkov, I really don't think that's the case. The Russian approach at the tactical level is a little hard to understand, but as others have noted, it appears that their plan was to coerce what they wanted out the Ukraine with little or no actual fighting. I believe the Russians are well aware that significant Ukrainian civilian causalities would work against their interests, that makes taking cities difficult, and now that they've had their bluff called, they seem not to have a good plan on how to achieve their objectives.

All that said, I think it's very difficult to judge the situation at this point, other than I think those who are suggesting that Russia has lost even if it wins are probably right.

Russia still hasn't played all their cards militarily. For all Canterbury makes a factual point on Russia not being a superpower anymore...they still have a good military. Right now what you see is...1991 and 2003 Iraq shifted over to Ukraine environments. If Putin gets stubborn, missiles and artillery may start flying and you may start seeing urban environments turned into rubble and them willing to take the even worse economic hit we'll hit them with should they do that. It was never about whether or not Russia would succeed in this invasion. Everybody, including Ukraine, knew that if Russia really wants to succeed at this they will succeed. Ukraine and their people are more playing the long game and even their regular citizens are knuckling down for the resistance.

[swabian]

It's not even a week guys. It would still be fairly quick if they took Kyif within a month. Ukraine doesn't stand a chance, let's be realistic. Eventually, they are hopelessly outgunned on every level and Russia probably has full air superiority in a few days, if it doesn't already right now.


The only thing that's a threat for Russian progress is the sanctions. The Ruble plummeted like a meteor today, i think over 40% and there's probably more to come. Interestingly, Bitcoin pumps right now. I wonder if they decided to fill up their war treasury with Bitcoin. I suspect Putin would be open to it

[bitterhowl]

Slow progress you say? Ukraine is largest country in Europe, you know. And at the second day first groups was near capital.

[Gaius Baltar]

It's not even a week guys. It would still be fairly quick if they took Kyif within a month. Ukraine doesn't stand a chance, let's be realistic. Eventually, they are hopelessly outgunned on every level and Russia probably has full air superiority in a few days, if it doesn't already right now.

Looking like a timeline similar to the US invasion of Iraq - steady daily progress and eventual occupation of the more important infrastructure elements. Lets check again here after about a month.

Arming civilians looks cool but they are the literal "meat shields" of desperation.

[Sar1n]

I'm surprised that the Russians have made so little progress so far, and I think the clock may well be working against them, but if anyone has the impression that the Ukrainians have held off multiple full-scale Russian assaults against Kiev and Kharkov, I really don't think that's the case. The Russian approach at the tactical level is a little hard to understand, but as others have noted, it appears that their plan was to coerce what they wanted out the Ukraine with little or no actual fighting. I believe the Russians are well aware that significant Ukrainian civilian causalities would work against their interests, that makes taking cities difficult, and now that they've had their bluff called, they seem not to have a good plan on how to achieve their objectives.

All that said, I think it's very difficult to judge the situation at this point, other than I think those who are suggesting that Russia has lost even if it wins are probably right.

I'm going to repeat my thoughts on the subject.

Putin, in his self-righteous, self-centered arrogance did not account for two facts. That in the last eight years, since the illegal occupation of Crimea, the Ukrainian national identity, as muddy as it was before, became more distinct ideal, and profiled itself against Russia. And that all that time he publicly vilified NATO and EU and his willingness to use force for his own gains resulted in people in the west seeing him as a villain, and after the failure of sanctions in the aftermath of 2014, they're willing to push their governments much further than before.

He expected to find the same Ukraine and same Europe as it was in 2014. He though he can waltz in and install his puppet in Kiev, while simultaneously creating a Russian land connection between Crimea and Russian borders. He expected that the sanctions against him will be soft as before. Now, he's panicking. Today marked a shift in his policy against civilians as BM-21 equipped unit opened fire at Kharkov suburbs. He's losing it.

[ioannis76]

https://khpg.org/en/1420855493

At his last press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin ignored a direct question about Russian soldiers fighting and dying in Ukraine, speaking only of “people who at the call of their hearts fulfil their duty or voluntarily take part in some military action, including in the south-east of Ukraine”. There has been a determined drive in Russia over recent months to push the line that there are only ‘volunteers’ fighting in Ukraine. This is even the unconvincing refrain from another Russian - Igor Girkin (nom de guerre: Strelkov), former ‘defence minister’ of the self-proclaimed ‘Donetsk people’s republic’ and identified by US officials as working for Russia’s GRU military intelligence service.
This constant narrative about committed volunteers clashes with the mounting evidence of the deaths of Russian soldiers in Ukraine; of Russian conscripts and contract soldiers being made to go to Donbas; and of significant deployment of Russian forces, together with sophisticated military technology, against the Ukrainian military.
Here, however, we present one Russian who almost certainly needed no coercion to join the action in Donbas. Alexei Milchakov recently told the pro-militant TV channel Anna-News that he had been fighting in eastern Ukraine since the end of June. News that Milchakov was probably in Ukraine had been reported in early July, with even Russian media sources extraordinarily blunt in their description of this young man led by Putin’s ‘call of the heart’ to Ukraine. Moskovsky Komsomolets, for example, reports that “A Fascist – Butcher from Petersburg has gone to fight for the insurgents”. The paper calls him a “well-known Russian maniac”, nicknamed ‘Fritz’, who gained notoriety in 2012 when the 20-year-old posted images of himself with a puppy whose head he cut off and ate. “After that Milchakov constantly posed with Nazi banners and called on people to kill down-and-outs and dogs”*.

https://informnapalm.org/en/russian-...of-wagner-pmc/

https://www.thedailybeast.com/wagner...ine-undercover

https://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/...stern-ukraine/

Do you want me to keep going with more articles or are you finally going to cut the "de-nazification" propaganda?

Nice whataboutism.
When did I claim the Russian Wagner group to be saints?
We are talking about straight out Nazis, whom Europe and the US is currently arming with fire and forget anti tank and anti air portable missiles. Weapons that can and possibly WILL be used in future terrorist attacks.

So, is Europe and the US supporting Nazis, or not? The answer is yes, regardless of what the Wagner Group is or isn't.
Interesting that you will bring ONE example of a nazi in the Wagner group to "wash" the whole Azov Battalion that consists of nothing BUT nazis (the symbol itself is the Wolfsangel, a known nazi symbol).

[swabian]

Arming civilians looks cool but they are the literal "meat shields" of desperation.

This is sad and really a questionable step. Prolonging makes sense, though and this is of course the only point of little weapon deliveries from other countries. But prolonging will not only be costly for the Russian economy, but might lead to a humanitarian catastrophy that isn't worth it. The economic pressure should probably be used to get Putin back to negotiating as soon as possible. He might be satisfied with the part east of the Dnieper, so he has a land corridor to the Krim and the politically critical parts where he is more or less expected to have success by the Russian population that is pro-Putin.

[swabian]

Slow progress you say? Ukraine is largest country in Europe, you know. And at the second day first groups was near capital.

Is it true/accurate that Russia is only using 30% of their armed forces? It's been said on the news.

[sumskilz]

It's not even a week guys. It would still be fairly quick if they took Kyif within a month.

Various media outlets have presented the situation as if the Russians have tried to take the city multiple times but have been repulsed. What it seems like in reality, is that what the Ukrainian defenders have faced there has been limited to special forces and perhaps recon units on the outskirts of the city. My suggestion is that the Russians may have thought they could take the capitol quickly with special forces alone by taking a few key buildings and capturing or killing the government, which they thought might cause the rest of the country to fold, or at least start to collapse, especially if they had already done a lot of damage to the Ukrainian army from the air. If it continued to be necessary, this would be coupled with an effort to cut off Ukrainian forces from being resupplied from the West, which would obviously take longer to close the noose. In this view, the major buildup serves the purpose of convincing the Ukrainians that their cause is futile, with an actual conventional campaign serving as plan B, or rather plan C if plan A was to coerce concessions without any sort of a fight.

I'm inferring this from their stated goals: 1) "denazification" meaning decapitating the government and installing a puppet, and 2) "demilitarization" which would involve destroying major military assets and/or convincing Ukrainian soldiers to surrender or desert. I assume they hoped to accomplish these goals quickly without having to essentially conquer the whole country.

[PointOfViewGun]

Slow progress you say? Ukraine is largest country in Europe, you know. And at the second day first groups was near capital.

Really? Kyiv is about 100 km from the Belarusian border and you're boasting about that? That alone says a lot about your position. Also, Ukraine may be large but its also one of the flattest countries on Earth.

[Inkie]

As much as I support Ukraine against the Russian invasion, this is not particularly unsurprising despicable behaviour, which is of course far from highlighted in the places it's being reported as it doesn't help make Ukraine's plight more sympathetic.

Ukraine Conflict: Nigeria condemns treatment of Africans

Indian students stranded in Ukraine desperately seek help

It'll be interesting to see Putin apologists suddenly starting to care about non-whites though.

Disgusted with videos of cluster bombs being deployed in Kharkiv.

[Lord Thesaurian]

It’s Ukraine’s fault foreigners are being mistreated in a warzone?

[Muizer]

In this view, the major buildup serves the purpose of convincing the Ukrainians that their cause is futile, with an actual conventional campaign serving as plan B, or rather plan C if plan A was to coerce concessions without any sort of a fight.

If that's the case, and it does seem plausible, would we by now have to conclude both plan A and plan B went off half-cocked? Because neither seem to have provided a swift and comparably bloodless takeover. I don't think anyone here really doubts that, given time, Putin would win a war but the clock is ticking against him domestically. Another worrying thought is that perhaps his own generals and staff were too intimidated to give him a realistic forecast of how much resistance there would be and consequently how much troops and materiel would be required. That's the kind of thing that's happened to monarchs often enough when they surround themselves with yes-men. It's worrying because it may mean his decision making may be outright irrational / paranoid. And he's got nukes.

[Bande Nere]

So, is Europe and the US supporting Nazis, or not? The answer is yes, regardless of what the Wagner Group is or isn't.
Interesting that you will bring ONE example of a nazi in the Wagner group to "wash" the whole Azov Battalion that consists of nothing BUT nazis (the symbol itself is the Wolfsangel, a known nazi symbol).

Maybe you should read the links I posted. From your answer it's clear you haven't.

Yeah the Azov batallion is basically a terrorist group, and the militaries of the US and UK have always refused training them, but Ukraine remains a huge scarcely populated country and after the Revolution the army was in shambles. To refuse their participation in the conflict was something that the new gov. simply could not do. (and they got 2% of the votes in 2019, so Ukrainian support for them is quite overrated)

Meanwhile Russia, that had no business sending it's soldiers to Donbass in the first place, not only sent regular forces but also openly recruited among nazi gangs to send them to Donbass. The Wagner group IS a neonazi pmc, and was not the only right wing paramilitary sent there.

Now before you keep going about whataboutisms, remember how many people live in Russia and how many in Ukraine.
How come of all the potential "volunteers" coming from such a huge population of "higly motivated and patriotic" citizens, most of whom with some basic military training, so many of the ones actually arriving in Donbass were russian neonazis? They really couldn't get anyone else?
I mean if Putin is so fervently anti-nazi that he invaded a whole country, one would assume he would refrain from allowing known nazi militias to join the so called "People Republics" he loves so much.

Ukraine had little choice, Putin could have chosen among millions and decided to pick only nazi murderers.
But yeah, call it whataboutism if you want. I call it false equivalency.

[Ludicus]

In the United States, there are two schools of thought. The interventionist globalist and the realist. Kissinger, among others,is a realist who knows very well the history of Russia.It is very clear to me that whichever nationalist takes Putin's place,he will not fail to see Ukraine as part of Russia. This is what Kissinger explains very well, by drawing attention to Russia's history. Solzhenitsyn, an outspoken critic of communism, clearly advocated the union between Russia and Ukraine, in a 1990 essay titled "Rebuilding Russia." (use google translate)
Andrej Kreutz is Prof. International Relations Foreign Policy of Major Powers Politics and History of Europe Post Soviet Politics, University of Calgary, Canada. Published in 2015, this book presents a geopolitical and historical background of Russia,Russia's Place in the World: Kreutz, Andrej - Amazon.com
I quote,
Chapter 3: Russia in the midst of the Ukraine crisis and the battle for Russia

(...) For more than a year Washington was playing out a game designed to 1)reassert US control over Europe by blocking or a least hampering EU trade with Russia 2)bankrupt Russia 3) get rid of Vladimir Putin and his team of independent nationalists and to replace them with people like Yeltsin who would be subservient to American interests.

From a geostrategic perspective, the last thing the US wants is a Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals. Zelenski now demands an “immediate” EU membership.Let’s keep in mind that Croatia was the last country to join the EU and its application process lasted 10 years.In the next days,there will be a debate about making Ukraine a member of the European Union. That puts wind in the sails of Zelensky, a romantic,global hero already compared to Churchill and to De Gaulle.

Zelensky signed the application for the membership of Ukraine in the European Union.



I hope it doesn't come true, right now, for obvious reasons. Ukraine and Russia in the European Union yes- why not- but both at the same time. We will then have a Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals. After all, the Ukrainian oligarchs are no better or worse than the Russian oligarchs, who lived for so many years (and still live) in Londongrad.
Ukraine: Great Expectations - Chatham House

Great Expectations, Charles Dickens’s penultimate completed work, concerns the development of a young man who faces arduous trials before eventually overcoming adversity. Ukraine’s progress often seems just as tortured as that of Dickens’s enigmatic protagonist in the novel.

Quite true. In February 2014 Ukraine was an autocracy. Six months later it became a "democracy". What happened? no, it wasn’t a a sudden and miraculous democratic transformation. EU arms embargo on Ukraine

The joys of the (corrupt) oligarchic-democracy Richest Ukrainians With Billions To Lose Close Ranks As Putin

Ukraine's oligarchs have put aside both their differences with the government of Volodymyr Zelensky and any lingering pro-Russian sentiment.

Whither The Oligarchs?

"If, as a result of some coup, a pro-Russian government comes to power that is accountable to Putin, Ukrainian oligarchs understand they will lose their power. For them, it's better to be oligarchs in independent Ukraine rather than nobody in a Ukraine controlled by Putin's puppet," Prokip told RFE/RL. “That is why these guys will take steps to protect their territories, ”he added.

It occurred to me that Al Capone was a great "Patriot".

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

If you don’t believe me, read the "Investigation of Un-American Propaganda Activities in the United States-Volume 11 -1939"