Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Whatever Prigozhin's motives may have been, his rebellion seems to be over.

Most likely. Unless the army uses this as a chance to mutiny. But seeing as the army is actually involved in some pretty intense combat right now, and Wagner was just sitting behind the lines it may be that the views on Wagner are very mixed. The troops have also been fighting hard. Wagner which was just deployed at Bakhmut then got to take a break after that but keep complaining.

But to say that Prigozhin was necessarily a threat to Putin is kind of a stretch. Putin could have easily fled Moscow. If Prigozhin occupied Moscow what then? He isn't going to rule Russia with just 30,000 men. Moscow is not all of Russia. If he damages the war effort then he loses support. The populace wouldn't have supported him. The Russian army could be deployed to attack him in Moscow. This had civil war potential, it was reminiscent of 1991. So what the hell was he thinking?

In the short term what i wonder now is if these 24 hours of chaos had an effect on the Russo-Ukrainian front and if yes, what was it? Were the Ukrainians able to take advantage of this and gain some territory? Is Russia's ability to wage this war now compromised?

On the immediate front line? Nothing except for maybe morale. Maybe Wagner has control of key installations though, like Rostov.

It could affect army logistics. Prigozhin could try something again though, which could hurt the front line.

Wagner has been relaxing since Bakhmut ended. Current operations have little or nothing to do with Wagner at the moment. So it was not a major blow to the army or current operations.

In the medium term what I wonder is the effect this adventure will have to the stability of the Russian government and what the impact of that effect will be.

Yeah who knows. Wagner might do something again. The army might mutiny. This is a hit to Putin's prestige for sure. My best guess is that Prigozhin will go missing, maybe taken in a van. Or will literally be found dead somewhere. Maybe he will run away and seek asylum.

Let me put it like this. Prigozhin has two prior convictions in Russia. I am hardly surprised that a guy like Prigozhin, who leads an entire Corps of criminals, and whose officers are ex-military most of whom have criminal records, would then carry out sedition over something so petty. It isn't too surprising at all considering how much he has been mouthing off the past months and how vocal and irreverent he was being. The man clearly has low impulse control as his two convictions demonstrate.

If not this uprising then he was bound to be a liability given that he leads a heavily armed private army. If I was Putin then Prigo would have been six feet under the moment he started mouthing off. Even if he doesn't do anything again, he is still a huge liability because he acts like a mobster with low impulse control. He reminds me of Joe Peschi from Goodfellas (or Casino).

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Prighozin the petty cook roasted his last festive meal

This is better and more confusing than Game of Thrones.

[Alastor]

But to say that Prigozhin was necessarily a threat to Putin is kind of a stretch. Putin could have easily fled Moscow. If Prigozhin occupied Moscow what then? He isn't going to rule Russia with just 30,000 men. Moscow is not all of Russia. If he damages the war effort then he loses support. The populace wouldn't have supported him. The Russian army could be deployed to attack him in Moscow. This had civil war potential, it was reminiscent of 1991. So what the hell was he thinking?

I don't think Prigozhin could even capture Moscow. First, he didn't have 30000 for his march to Moscow but a fraction of his full forces. Maybe as few as 5000, at most 10000. Moscow is a city of 12 million. The police alone in Moscow likely outnumbers them 5 or even 10 to 1.

So yeah, I also don't really know what Prigozhin was thinking. Unless, as I asked earlier in the thread, he had powerful backing. But even that, didn't seem to be the case.

Either way, if Putin's authority has been weakened and indeed that argument can be made, another interesting question then is, what measures will Putin take to recover his prestige and authority? Things remain quite unclear.

[Stario]

Yes it was all according to plan.

Anyone assuming Prigozhin hasn't secured some kind of concession by stopping his drive on Moscow is incredibly naive. This isn't likely over either. Prigozhin still retains a lot of power and influence regardless of him being in Belarus or not.

Putin made Prigo an offer he couldn't refuse 😂

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Yet again Russia appears to have been caught off guard by this revolt, yet reportedly US officials were briefed it was going to happen as early as Wednesday. Are Russia's intelligence services even functional? This band of mercenaries was able to capture Rostov with virtually zero resistance. How soon before the next would be rebel, we all know Ukraine harbours a few of those, takes advantage of this weakness?

Russian intel has been seriously struggling since about the 1970's. The Russians have a lot of intel in Ukraine, but not anywhere else. USA has definitely infiltrated Russia and has satellite advantages. Only ones who might know more than USA is China. USA has very limited intel on China by contrast.

If USA found out then someone in Wagner, or someone that is at least close to Prigozhin is also leaking to the USA. Or Prigozhin was being really mouthy and Putin was being careless. But the main issue is likely that Prigozhin would be removed from Wagner and that Wagner would be "conscripted" into the main Russian army.

Their contract and payments had ended and the Russian army wanted them to sign a new contract. Prigozhin made a big deal about this in the preceding days. Wanting payments and stating publicly that he refused to sign any new contract.

But the strange thing is that a day ago the Russians began to organize an elite unit of 1,500 men at Rostov. This may have been a total coincidence, but MAYBE the Russians were tipped off already and that was their attempt to hold Rostov from the Wagner mutiny.

Gerasimov himself was inspecting the southern front and then went to Rostov. Shoigu was inspecting the northern Ukrainian border to prepare for an operation, then met with Gerasimov at Rostov. Prigozhin claimed that the Russians hit his Wagner camps with missiles. Which if true actually means that the Russians already knew and were trying to disband or destroy Wagner.

So my only conclusion is that Prigozhin was being loud about his intentions, the government found out, and tried to attack him first. Wagner forces were camped way behind the line at Lugansk, and then rapidly moved on Rostov. How many forces actually moved on Rostov, and then Moscow, is not actually clear though.

But again this did not appear to be a coup. More like an armed protest. Some kind of coup for payments, demands that they not be disbanded, and more supplies. Prigozhin did not even denounce Putin specifically, just Shoigu and Gerasimov. He demanded from Putin that Shoigu and Gerasimov be removed from the defense ministry.

Prigozhin stupidly did an all or nothing play. Then forced Putin's hand to act against Wagner. Because now Putin doesn't have a choice for prestige reasons and because Wagner is a liability. Also keep in mind that Putin is able to declare martial law as a result of this. He can pretty much blame anyone he wants for this. Was it a false flag? I doubt it but it is still hilariously absurd and stupid.

[Stario]

You are still worshipping a disgraced man. Putin is now a deposed vain man who has only been not beheaded at the mercy of a warlord. I wonder how much of his wealth he gave up for this ransom.

Same can be said about Zelensky, Xi jingping, Marcon, Demented Joe (the whole lot of them)...
They are all corrupt, lying crooks lacking any morals whatsoever...best we can hope is the risk/benefit as far as war/peace, stays on the benefit of peace side of the pendulum and so we all stay at peace...

[Nebaki]

Same can be said about Zelensky, Xi jingping, Marcon, Demented Joe (the whole lot of them)...

Really didn't know that Ukrainian Army, People's Liberation Army, Armée de Terre or even US Army being leaded by some kind of Warlord which even would have some kind influence over them.

best we can hope is the risk/benefit as far as war/peace, stays on the benefit of peace side of the pendulum and so we all stays at peace...

You mean what you are hoping for? What has changed wait...

[Stario]

Really didn't know that Ukrainian Army, People's Liberation Army, Armée de Terre or even US Army being leaded by some kind of Warlord which even would have some kind influence over them.

Of course they have "some kind of influence over them". Both the paramilitary and military are there to serve and protect the government from us; to protect us from ourselves 😂

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

I don't think Prigozhin could even capture Moscow. First, he didn't have 30000 for his march to Moscow but a fraction of his full forces. Maybe as few as 5000, at most 10000. Moscow is a city of 12 million. The police alone in Moscow likely outnumbers them 5 or even 10 to 1.

So yeah, I also don't really know what Prigozhin was thinking. Unless, as I asked earlier in the thread, he had powerful backing. But even that, didn't seem to be the case.

Either way, if Putin's authority has been weakened and indeed that argument can be made, another interesting question then is, what measures will Putin take to recover his prestige and authority? Things remain quite unclear.

Exactly. Prigozhin is nuts. The forces in Moscow went into full defense mode. They were willing to fight it out. Putin didn't even run away. Prigozhin doesn't consider himself a traitor, but Putin called him a traitor. His moves were not against Putin but against the defense ministry. Basically mercenaries wanting to be paid and Prigozhin wanted more leeway in the war and how his soldiers were being supplied and paid. Since the defense ministry cut him off from supplies so that he wouldn't disobey orders and keep attacking.

[swabian]

Exactly. Prigozhin is nuts. The forces in Moscow went into full defense mode. They were willing to fight it out. Putin didn't even run away. Prigozhin doesn't consider himself a traitor, but Putin called him a traitor. His moves were not against Putin but against the defense ministry. Basically mercenaries wanting to be paid and Prigozhin wanted more leeway in the war and how his soldiers were being supplied and paid. Since the defense ministry cut him off from supplies so that he wouldn't disobey orders and keep attacking.

The point is that the Russian public is forced to see their leader in a less than reassuring light. This is a major turning point without question. From this day on, not even the most senile Russian grandma can stay in her home and believe that everything goes according to the Kremlin's plan.

His moves were not against Putin but against the defense ministry.

Of course it is against Putin. Everyone and their dog can figure out that Putin will want to have a "say" in who leads his 'non-war'

[Muizer]

Hmm I'm not sure our western perspective on all of this is valid. As a westerner you'd think that if part of your army decides to march on your capital, making demands, that means the government must be weak. On the other hand, if you look at Russia as basically a loose conglomerate of magnates and petty warlords, medieval style, then Putin could actually be said to have come out of it quite strong. In the end, his 'challenger' remained completely isolated and had to back down without a shot being fired, sent into exile with all his (military) assets being confiscated.

[conon394]

Hmm I'm not sure our western perspective on all of this is valid. As a westerner you'd think that if part of your army decides to march on your capital, making demands, that means the government must be weak. On the other hand, if you look at Russia as basically a loose conglomerate of magnates and petty warlords, medieval style, then Putin could actually be said to have come out of it quite strong. In the end, his 'challenger' remained completely isolated and had to back down without a shot being fired, sent into exile with all his (military) assets being confiscated.

I going to go with looks weak for Putin. Yes Putin is managing various factions. But the he goes through a lot effort to keep that under the lid just like he still goes through all the legality optics such as not to just declare himself ruler for life.

There were shots fires Russia lost more a then a couple aircraft. Also it terms of your conglomerate argument Putin lost a one actor that balanced others.

Also Putin has likely lost Wagner as a asset in effect. ignoring the prisons guys Wager was sweat deal for ex russian military guys who mostly signed up for small wars type stuff and got better pay and treatment and seem to have developed som elan and such. Tossed back into the army I'm not sure they will perform as well.

[Mithradates]

Prigozhin is over. In the course of yesterday, he lost his business empire, his money (four billion rubles in cash(!) were found in the St. Petersburg center alone), his media outlets, his private army, and his independence. It remains to be seen what kind of future awaits him in Belarus - or elsewhere -, but for him the "battle of the thrones" is over.

Among the possible endings of yesterday, this was probably the best. Prigozhin's victory would have meant that a man would gain decisive influence who not only considered it normal that his soldiers who tried to desert be executed with a sledgehammer, but even bragged about it. Of course, he could not have become president (this has a constitutional process that cannot be completely bypassed), but if he had been able to replace his two main enemies, the defense minister and the chief of staff, by force, it would not have been good either. Not because either Shoigu or Gerasimov would be particularly likable or effective leaders, but because it would have meant that the Russian state would be weak enough that armed insurgents could force a change of government.

The biggest loser of the story is Vladimir Putin and the Putin elite that built its power and influence on the relationship with him. The Russian state and its management failed tragically yesterday. It has not happened since WW2 that a non-state armed force marched more than eight hundred kilometers (!) in Russia without encountering substantial resistance. And the Russian state was spectacularly unable to do anything, except that it politely got out of the way and had to ask the Belarusian dictator to mediate.

It was not the strength to resist that was missing primarily, as far as it can be reconstructed, but the ability to make decisions. Technically, the Wagner convoy could have been stopped. You can dig up the highway crosswise (someone thought of this only late in the afternoon), you can dismantle the bridges (this was finally done only at the Oka River bridge, not far from Moscow) etc. And of course there are also the violent options, from the combat helicopters of the air force to the attack drones to the Rosgvardia units and the Tula elite airborne division, a significant part of which is not in Ukraine. As far as the operation of the Russian system is known, the main problem was not the possible civilian casualties: at the beginning of Prigozhin's march, the air force shot up a bus full of people without any problems and then sporadically attacked the vehicles of the Wagnerites on the highway. What was missing was a firm decision as to what exactly the course of action should be.

In the absence of a definite decision, the local governors did the only thing they could do rationally: they waited until the storm passed, trying to minimize the damage and losses to their territory. They did not resist, but tried to keep the civilian population out of the way of the Wagnerites, which they mostly succeeded. Rostov, Voronezh, and Lipetsk counties fared well: they escaped with minimal infrastructural damage.

The lack of a firm decision caused the greatest direct damage to the army in the short term: the Wagnerites shot down at least seven helicopters and one airplane. This means at least 12-15 well-trained personnel and billions worth of damage.... and thanks to last night's deal brokered by Lukashenka, they are expected to get away with it with complete impunity.
It's been a long time since anyone humiliated the Russian army to such an extent.

However, the Kremlin is really the big loser. It turned out that Putin, who has always been portrayed as firm, calm and fearless, is actually unable to handle a sudden, unexpected crisis. And he didn't even make bad decisions, but either he didn't make a decision at all or he made contradictory decisions - we don't know this factually, but we do know that the Russian state was paralyzed by the events, while with a firm Kremlin guideline, the opposite of it should have happened. It is possible that Prigozhin's earlier sarcastic remark about the old man lurking in the bunker (бункерний дед) was not so wrong after all.
By the end of the day, we went from Putin's angry and harsh speech in the morning (which mentioned backstabbing and demanded strict accountability) to the fact that the rebels can leave freely, and some of them can even sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin's announcements that "the civil war has begun" and "we will have a new president by evening" are as if they had never happened. The trial, which was started in the morning and threatened with a ten-year prison sentence for the organization of an armed uprising was closed, and Prigozhin was acquitted. It is telling that Putin did not even speak in the evening, instead the spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, announced the news of the deal to the public and it had to be proven in a separate TASS announcement that the president did not leave Moscow, even though the special planes he used did indeed leave the capital.)

Yesterday's events also showed the limits of Putin's elites' loyalty. On the one hand, it is true that not a single significant actor stood by the rebels - but many of the members of the elite fled Moscow very quickly (many from the country as well), which shows that they did not dare to confront Putin, but they did not want to risk anything for him either. And apparently they considered the danger that the Russian state couldn't stop the rebels to be real. And the members of the highest elite are the ones who know Putin and his real power - or lack thereof - better than anyone else.

[Kyriakos]

I'd say that a coup attempt (or what it was) that ended in less than a day, without significant casualties, was in the end the best way this could have been handled. Sure, they could have sent airplanes to mass-bomb wagner, but then it would have lasted for more than a day and looked far worse.
The original situation (Pri) was terrible already, and with that as a given, how would things have possibly developed any better?

[Alastor]

I'd say that a coup attempt (or what it was) that ended in less than a day, without significant casualties, was in the end the best way this could have been handled. Sure, they could have sent airplanes to mass-bomb wagner, but then it would have lasted for more than a day and looked far worse.
The original situation (Pri) was terrible already, and with that as a given, how would things have possibly developed any better?

I also think this ended up in likely the best way it could have ended for Russia. Wagner (alone) could not take Moscow, if Putin had ordered the military to eliminate Wagner that would mean Russians killing Russians and it would have not looked good on him. Let's not forget that Wagner is actually popular among the average Russian. You can see that easily by observing the behaviour of civilians towards them in Rostov. Images and news of Wagner being massacred would have had a very bad effect on Russians. So quelling the revolt by force was a lose-lose more situation. Ending it by negotiation, may look embarrassing but it preserves Russia's forces and doesn't escalate the situation.

The issue here though is that this should not have been allowed to happen in the first place. Prigozhin was clearly out of control for a long time now. Even the Americans were apparently briefed of his imminent revolt. But Putin and Russia were still caught off guard. That is Putin's failure in this situation. Not how this was handled after it happened, but that it happened in the first place.

Putin's prestige has definitely been damaged within Russia, I'm sure he is keenly aware of it himself. As such, I will repeat the question this leads to, what is Putin prepared to do to recover it?

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

The point is that the Russian public is forced to see their leader in a less than reassuring light. This is a major turning point without question. From this day on, not even the most senile Russian grandma can stay in her home and believe that everything goes according to the Kremlin's plan.

Of course it is against Putin. Everyone and their dog can figure out that Putin will want to have a "say" in who leads his 'non-war'

Prigozhin's actions were not against Putin. He didn't even denounce Putin but only mentioned Shoigu and Gerasimov. Nor was this intended as a coup against Putin, since he didn't even march on Moscow with his full Corps. Prigozhin was out of line but he wasn't about to overthrow the government. This only made sense in his idiot head.

I mean obviously he acted against the government, even if he himself did not realize it. But this was not intended as an action against Putin. If the situation was as dire as claimed then Putin would have abandoned Moscow, he didn't. Nor did he take any serious action against Prigozhin himself, when Putin could have literally shot at him with drones while he was leading his small column to Moscow.

His initial targets were most likely Gerasimov and Shoigu, both of whom were in Rostov the day before, and both of whom fled from Rostov. Having been unable to capture Gerasimov and Shoigu he must have decided to take a small force to Moscow, in order to air his grievances to Putin himself.

[Cyclops]

There is a meme going around "Day 400 of the US special operation in Mexico, Guy Fieri has marched his militia toward Washington"

Putins regime is becoming deeply unserious, either didn't see this break with reality coming or they were too weak to stop it until it was underway.

One large rat has jumped ship. I don't think it was because the ship has been cleaned up.

Putin keeps pushing the envelope on how low he can take Russia.

[conon394]

Putin's prestige has definitely been damaged within Russia, I'm sure he is keenly aware of it himself. As such, I will repeat the question this leads to, what is Putin prepared to do to recover it?

I would think heads rolling Shoigu and Gerasimov top of the list. As far I see things Surovikin's overall defensive plan and train the mobniks was far superior to Gerasimov's lurching back to poorly planed high cost localized offensives over the winter. Would make a nice story as well. Prigozhin opened my eyes, but he did so in a reckless way. so I will forgive him but he did need to face censure. but he did see the light and mismanagement of the war - err SO has to be put at the feet of its true authors - men I once thought I could trust (goodbye comrades).

[Alastor]

I would think heads rolling Shoigu and Gerasimov top of the list. As far I see things Surovikin's overall defensive plan and train the mobniks was far superior to Gerasimov's lurching back to poorly planed high cost localized offensives over the winter. Would make a nice story as well. Prigozhin opened my eyes, but he did so in a reckless way. so I will forgive him but he did need to face censure. but he did see the light and mismanagement of the war - err SO has to be put at the feet of its true authors - men I once thought I could trust (goodbye comrades).

I also think Surovikin did a better job than Gerasimov as commander of the Russian army in Ukraine. At the very least he did not preside over any disasters like Vuhledar. On the other hand Surovikin has ties to Wagner which atm may be a double-edged sword. Should Putin opt to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov I don't think anyone will be shocked, I have been asking in this thread for a long time why those folks are still in their positions, that's the surprise. But, at this moment if he did do that, it would be too little too late to restore his prestige and perhaps worse, it would appear that he did it due to pressure from an armed revolt. Putin will have to do a lot more than just that.

Not sure what you mean that Prigozhin opened your eyes though. To what?

[conon394]

Not sure what you mean that Prigozhin opened your eyes though. To what?

It occurs to me after going on TV and calling Prigozhin an isuresectionst traitor, but he is alive today no bullet to the back of the head seems like Putin has a problem. Since most of the rants Prigozhin were about the General staff I would assume he (Putin) would need a just so story that Prigozhin really did see a problem and he was right but he went about showing that to Putin in very reckless way. So thus to what? Corruption and such in Military and General staff to publicly punished now.

I mean its weak. I agree because frankly the Putin ironman 12th dimensional chess player shirtless horse rider and ex KGB should be presiding over a short terminal walk for Prigozhin out of Lubyanka. That he is not probably cannot be papered over or at least I can't think of a good way. It certainly says both sides blinked and that's not good look for Vlad