View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

Voters
148. You may not vote on this poll
  • I support Ukraine fully.

    103 69.59%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.14%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.70%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    11 7.43%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.73%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.41%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #8621
    Morticia Iunia Bruti's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    I dunno I have seen a lot more media people and commentators making the spring offensive call than the government of Ukraine. And you can't deny a lot moving pieces are occurring only recently that suggest waiting a bit more is the correct call. No all conquering army of mobnics has shown up to jump up and push through Bakhumt. But I would say its better to be closer to 100 Leopards 1s in June than farther away. And The Pentagon suddenly realizing they were over valuing weapons' to Ukraine - 3 billions dollars is a lot a 155mm shells. Its not like Xi opened the taps or anything and if you know your opponent is adding T55s I think you can wait a bit.



    And poorly planned offensives do even more - just ask the Russians around Kviv a year ago.
    Exactly, even if its true, it doesn't matter, if Russia finally have conquered Bakhmut.

    Prigoshin already declared he will after the lest ukrainian pockets of resistance are cleaned in Bakhmut, give his positions to the russian Army and withdraw from Bakhmut. Wagner Corp. is bleeded out.

    If you are following this newsletter you can clearly see, that the offensive is already going:

    https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/19-may...d-in-mariupol-

    Ukraine is destroying depots in Mariupol, Berdiansk, Melitopol, Tokmak... Blowing up the only railway on Crimea to the Black Fleet.

    Thats already an ongoing offensive.
    Cause tomorrow is a brand-new day
    And tomorrow you'll be on your way
    Don't give a damn about what other people say
    Because tomorrow is a brand-new day


  2. #8622
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    But it was your assumption. You stated that no offensive is better than a bad(poorly planned) offensive. Thus excluding the possibility of a good offensive.
    Is that what I meant? Hmm I don't think so. My Point so far as been As far as I know Ukraine made no particular promises on a date in spring May 5th or June 1st. All I pointed out is a badly planned offensive is well bad.

    I was talking about his backers. The "donors". Not his own population.
    Still applicable. Washington could make no major offensive until such time as France provided more troops, more cash and critically the French fleet showing up to win local naval superiority.

    In this case Ukraine would have been foolish to plan offensive that did not see the arivial western tanks, at some new additional aircraft the deployment of more than MANPAD AA, moder APCs, building up ammunition the arrival of longer range munitions. None of that was in place until maybe about now. Just as before September 5th and the arrival of the french fleet GW could have attacked New York or Yorktown but he would have been routed. Ukraines donors can't really have expected a counteroffensive till about around now on the early side given they had yet to provided the means for it.

    -----

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Hahaha, Russia has a claim on Alaska now? What's next they are preparing to stage an invasion of the US armed with Kirov balloons and apocalypse tanks? Someone has been playing too much Red Alert and that's good it's a great game, but we are discussing reality here. Well, some of us are trying to at least.
    Well to be fair China makes the same kind outlandish claims about Asia based on old maps, if Putin spends too much talking to Xi he might go that far.


    ---------------------


    @Morticia Iunia Bruti

    Certainly they seem to be shaping but it will be interesting to see what if any misdirection they can achieve.

    In any case my bet is actually the North. The 'Donbas' is likely too well fortified and seems like a hard fight. The Crimea again choke point and population that is admittedly reasonably pro Russian and politically probably a place a fair number of Ukraine supporters would prefer they don't touch. Since everyone is talking about a drive to the south say toward Mariupol it might be the bet to avoid. North of Donbas is not long held and might offer the chance for quicker map repainting.
    Last edited by conon394; May 20, 2023 at 11:55 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  3. #8623
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Hahaha, Russia has a claim on Alaska now? What's next they are preparing to stage an invasion of the US armed with Kirov balloons and apocalypse tanks? Someone has been playing too much Red Alert and that's good it's a great game, but we are discussing reality here. Well, some of us are trying to at least.
    Goddamns right. Good trying to discuss reality with narratives like "we don't see how US/GB/NATO provoked Putin to invade innocent Ukraine". It's pretty near to Russia's claiming to Alaska or Tesla generators built on Mexican border to strike Texas - most stuff I've seen here is just like that. That's why I'm suggesting to extend voting poll.

    My sister, do you still recall the blue Hasan and Khalkhin-Gol?
    Russian warship is winning. Proofs needed? Go find yourself!

  4. #8624
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Is that what I meant? Hmm I don't think so. My Point so far as been As far as I know Ukraine made no particular promises on a date in spring May 5th or June 1st. All I pointed out is a badly planned offensive is well bad.
    Ok, so where is the well-planned offensive then? Is it really coming this spring? Because we are running out of spring. And Ukraine would be wise to manage expectations they can't meet.
    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Still applicable. Washington could make no major offensive until such time as France provided more troops, more cash and critically the French fleet showing up to win local naval superiority.
    How? France was an absolutist monarchy that didn't have any public opinion to worry about. Just the political considerations of its elites that wanted to stick it to the UK. It's not comparable. Granted the ruling elite of France would soon learn that to ignore public opinion carries some serious guillotine risks, but that's besides the point.
    Quote Originally Posted by bitterhowl View Post
    Goddamns right. Good trying to discuss reality with narratives like "we don't see how US/GB/NATO provoked Putin to invade innocent Ukraine". It's pretty near to Russia's claiming to Alaska or Tesla generators built on Mexican border to strike Texas - most stuff I've seen here is just like that. That's why I'm suggesting to extend voting poll.
    And you think that the best way to be taken seriously is to come up with even more outlandish nonsense? Yes, obviously the invasion was not unprovoked. I said repeatedly in this thread that it was provoked. But that doesn't mean it was justified either. Extremely partisan views are liable to be incomplete and thus wrong no matter which side they are coming from.
    Last edited by Alastor; May 20, 2023 at 12:23 PM.

  5. #8625
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    ...

    @Morticia Iunia Bruti

    Certainly they seem to be shaping but it will be interesting to see what if any misdirection they can achieve.

    In any case my bet is actually the North. The 'Donbas' is likely too well fortified and seems like a hard fight. The Crimea again choke point and population that is admittedly reasonably pro Russian and politically probably a place a fair number of Ukraine supporters would prefer they don't touch. Since everyone is talking about a drive to the south say toward Mariupol it might be the bet to avoid. North of Donbas is not long held and might offer the chance for quicker map repainting.
    https://deepstatemap.live/en#8/48.212/36.738

    Well if you look at the map Ukraine has the advantage of the inner line, they can move troups from Luhansk to Zaporizhzia on the shortest way. Russia must move their troups around ukrainian lines to travel from Luhansk to Zaporizhzia.

    So guess Ukrainia will be flexible where they attack.

    Even if Zaporizhzia is very predictable i think they will attack there. Drive south across Melitopol to Black Sea Cost and cut Russia front in two halfs. Even more when Russia is directing it reserve units to Bakhmut.
    Cause tomorrow is a brand-new day
    And tomorrow you'll be on your way
    Don't give a damn about what other people say
    Because tomorrow is a brand-new day


  6. #8626
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Some countries do face a risk by Russia. But others do not. To think otherwise, is just showing a major disconnect from reality.
    To use two extremes: Russia attacking some small baltic state, on account of russian minorities there, while not that likely, is possible. Russia attacking, say, Serbia, is just stupid an idea.
    Thinking people will unite behind your fear, is, to use a mild term, highly egotistic.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  7. #8627
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Some countries do face a risk by Russia. But others do not. To think otherwise, is just showing a major disconnect from reality.
    To use two extremes: Russia attacking some small baltic state, on account of russian minorities there, while not that likely, is possible. Russia attacking, say, Serbia, is just stupid an idea.
    Those small baltic states are in NATO. Russia isn't invading NATO any time soon.* Not unless the tables turn a few decades/centuries down the line and Russia becomes a superpower again, while NATO declines. Believe me, we will notice that happening loooong before Russia invades. But here we are entering the realm of science fiction.

    (*) Do note, I do not equate the probability of a Russian invasion with that of a nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia. As outlandish as I find fears of invasion to be, I actually consider a potential nuclear exchange to be in the realm of possibility and sth that we need to work in order to avoid. Like we have done all those decades now.
    Last edited by Alastor; May 20, 2023 at 05:29 PM.

  8. #8628
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I tend to agree (self-edit)
    Last edited by Kyriakos; May 21, 2023 at 09:21 AM.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  9. #8629
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Ok, so where is the well-planned offensive then? Is it really coming this spring? Because we are running out of spring. And Ukraine would be wise to manage expectations they can't meet.
    Again Spring seems to be not something I neve saw Ukraine claim as a deadline. In case consider this Times story

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/u...ives-9srbnml7h

    Now if this otherwise unknown brigade and training is just now finishing training and the brigade is moving back to Ukraine it would be a foolish would in to leave it behind - a fresh unit equipped with Leopard 2s Archer artillery and CV-90s. Or if it is made up it equality implies Sweden involved in misdirection working with the Ukraine which also implies Ukraines backers are part of a plan one that theoretical sees Russia following trains carrying mock ups or something.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  10. #8630
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Again Spring seems to be not something I neve saw Ukraine claim as a deadline.
    Well, they did call it the spring offensive, at least members of Ukraine's government have, that kind of implies that the deadline is the end of spring, though Zelensky did at some point say "by May if not earlier". At least according to:
    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/13695

  11. #8631

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    We didn't have a warning for a while now, so it's time again to remind you that off-topic posting is strictly forbidden. In this thread, we're supposed to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine and not the moral integrity, ethnic origins and nefarious motivations of our fellow members. Nor Chinese geopolitics for that matter. Please also keep in mind that if you violate the rules in this thread more than once, you will get forum-banned from the Mudpit for a substantial amount of time, so tread carefully.

  12. #8632
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Well, they did call it the spring offensive, at least members of Ukraine's government have, that kind of implies that the deadline is the end of spring, though Zelensky did at some point say "by May if not earlier". At least according to:
    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/13695
    Still not sure it matters to yo. Its clear some important units are just arriving and equipped. We know nothing of say what pace of massing ammunition has been like. I don't watch local Ukrainian news so I also have no ideal what the local weather forecasts and ground conditions are like.

    So back in March they said spring offensive... your link points only the very first guys trained on new weapons' systems were being finished. Its seems to promised weapons delivers were a bit tentative at the time. Maybe planning included different options if weapons' deliveries had not up ticked and made a larger plan feasible. The wiki list is reasonably informative. While there was flurries announcements the delivery dates for almost everything they really makes a large offensive possible only really kicked in in April. Even something like what looks big and was earlier US/Dutch/Czech deal to deliver 90 of the latest Czech upgraded T-72 at the end of last year has delivered only 32 so up to April. Germany and Poland just announced in what late April they were setting up a facility to do repairs in Poland... seems to me Between march and now as it became caer Russia had no second punch assid from grinding out in one city and the pace of deliveries to Ukraine became large why not wait.

    @Abdülmecid I

    On China I don't there thread has wondered to far on China it seems relevant to the Topic...

    China a pretty important player in the issue, potentially very important. Xi has floated China as a mediator, and certainly observers have. How it responds economic in terms of aid or buying and selling to Russia is pretty germaine. As is the potential for weapons transfers. I am not sure I see forys into its situation that off topic. It would seem kind of redundant to have separate China and its impact on the Russo Ukrainian war. The ideal that the US should wash its hands of Ukraine because its making Russia puppet of China and somehow that would not happen otherwise is a big talking point around the war and that in turn is say validated if you believe China's GDP numbers and your perception of the potential future economic power.
    Last edited by conon394; May 21, 2023 at 08:28 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  13. #8633
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Still not sure it matters to yo.
    Why it matters to me? It matters to me because our media keeps telling us Ukraine is kicking ass. Because the politicians here have thrown our lot in with Ukraine's war effort, given them billions in money and equipment. Cutting us off from Russia's vital resources in the process. Sth my side, the EU, will be paying the price of for at least a generation. You see, in this affair, my side has lost. No matter if Russia wins, or Ukraine does. My side has lost anyway. So since that's the case, I'd like to at least know the truth about what all these losses have bought and if Ukraine is not in as good a position as they claim, then how long before we wake up to this sunk cost fallacy situation? And yes btw, if Ukraine cannot conduct a much touted for offensive, that means things aren't going as well as planned, that means there is some problem. Now my interests may be different to yours here, but even if you unquestionably support Ukraine, even for that side the truth of the situation is important to know. Can't fix an issue if you don't acknowledge it first.
    Last edited by Alastor; May 21, 2023 at 10:25 AM.

  14. #8634
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Let me quote Tendar, I feel the same way he does about Bakhmut.

    In all honesty, I have covered many wars in several decades and I can say that I haven't seen in a long time a more hysteric way to declare "victory" as we see now around Bakhmut. And I'm not even into the semantics whether Russians hold 95%, 98% or 100%. The very fact that they phrase it that way is hilarious in its own.

    As I have mentioned already few days ago, Russians do not intend to move any further, or more precisely, they are not capable to move any further, which simply begs the question what was this all about. What strategic value offers Bakhmut in itself? The answer is simple. None. This fact was even stated by Prigozhin, Strelkov and others. It is a military travesty, aiming only for political games of the involved Russian warlords.

    The Ukrainian strategy on the other side has been coherent and quite clear. First, to deny Russians entry to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, secondly, bind Russian forces and prepare for their counteroffensive and, third, in the process decimating their ranks, which - when reflecting 100,000 Russian casualties - they have achieved with flying colors. The only threat was a potential encirclement of Bakhmut with the subsequent destruction of the Ukrainian armies in it, but that was averted and Russians were forced to run against the heaviest fortification, a stupidity in itself and exactly how Ukrainian strategist can ask for.

    Ukrainians have even achieved additional tactical advantages by binding additional Russian forces in Bakhmut. Russians were so obsessed with Bakhmut that they were depleting lines and more importantly ammunition in Kreminna, Svatove, Avdiivka and Vuhledar. Literally every single one of those named areas ended in total disasters. Especially, Vuhledar can be called an epic fail.

    However, when you look at the numbers than you can see that Bakhmut was actually the worst sector for Russians, because for the sake of just "staying in this area" it makes literally no difference whether you stay inside Bakhmut or 7km more to the East, because this is their pathetic "progress" in almost 10 months. It is however a complete difference when you have those 100,000 men and millions of artillery shells at your disposal. Even some Russians are starting to realize this.

    You do not have to take my word, the developments in battlefield will say this in the clearest language. History is full of examples where political lunatics forced their military leaders into steps which any sane military commander would never have done. The terms "pyrrhic victory, second Stalingrad etc." have been used more than once. Maybe we will even add "Bakhmut victory" to the books. It certainly deserves a place in military idiocy.

  15. #8635
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Why it matters to me? It matters to me because our media keeps telling us Ukraine is kicking ass. Because the politicians here have thrown our lot in with Ukraine's war effort, given them billions in money and equipment. Cutting us from Russia's vital resources in the process. Sth my side, the EU, will be paying the price of for at least a generation. You see, in this affair, my side has lost. No matter if Russia wins, or Ukraine does. My side has lost anyway. So since that's the case, I'd like to at least know the truth about what all these losses have bought and if Ukraine is not in as good a position as they claim, then how long before we wake up to this sunk cost fallacy situation? And yes btw, if Ukraine cannot conduct a much touted for offensive, that means things aren't going as well as planned, that means there is some problem. Now my interests may be different to yours here, but even if you unquestionably support Ukraine, even for that side the truth of the situation is important to know. Can't fix an issue if you don't acknowledge it first.
    I am sorry to say this seems a bit apocalyptic. What resources to feel critical that will create generational harm?

    " I'd like to at least know the truth about what all these losses have bought and if Ukraine is not in as good a position as they claim, then how long before we wake up to this sunk cost fallacy situation?"

    I sure telegraphing the exact date of their actions while comforting to you would shall we say counter productive.

    "And yes btw, if Ukraine cannot conduct a much touted for offensive, that means things aren't going as well as planned"

    Again you still seem to equating pledges of equipment for deliver and sustained training and logistics. You have looked at the crazy quit of equipment the Ukraine has - yes? I am willing to bet no senior officer for logistic in the US military would trade places with the Ukraine's trying to juggle basically now a whole set of current past and retired NATO kit. The simple fact no matter where I look the bulk of the equipment Ukraine needs to launched an offensive will simply not likely be moved and supported till the end of May. Again I might agree with your feeling if all the currently pleaded equipment had been delivered starting right after Kviv did not fall.

    Again the key thing is the West has provided a lot aid but always well after what would have been the optimal time. Before the invasion and in the period while Kyiv was attacked just light equipment and some dusted off M113 and Humvees... what give somebody for maybe a guerilla campaigns based of Lviv. Then oh wait well it looks Russia failed at decapitation and has ground to halt so I guess PAct era stuff where we can dig it up, lots of vietnam era stuff, left overs from the GWOT - but no planes, tanks, real AFVs or NATO air defense. Hey looks like with pile of second rate stuff you managed to clear out Northern Ukraine and invite the Russian to decamp to the left bank of Dnieper. Now let's agonize for months now about new aid or say dealing with the discovery that nobody in NATO has stocks or production capacity for high intensity war. Than sorta deal with that but no agonize over F-16s. Honest I think you can point the finger at the US and NATO and not Ukraine if the spring offensive is bumped back a month .
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  16. #8636
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    ^Sounds like sour grapes. And to rely on "will happen" (fabled ukrainian counter-offensive) means nothing. Let's first see it, then talk.
    I don't see why he believes that Russia went into Bahmut with no intention to then go further either. Just because you want to believe something, doesn't mean you should write it in an article - where, supposedly, you aren't talking to yourself.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  17. #8637
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    I am sorry to say this seems a bit apocalyptic. What resources to feel critical that will create generational harm?
    Apocalyptic? I didn't say this is going to be the end of Europe. So don't exaggerate. The generational harm will be to the economy and the growth of the EU. Our loss of a huge source of natural resources of all kinds, is the obvious reason.

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    I sure telegraphing the exact date of their actions while comforting to you would shall we say counter productive.
    The exact date? Where did I say that? I said specifically in fact that I don't recall a specific day ever mentioned. I can quote myself if you would like. "Spring" is a vague enough timeframe to avoid any fear of "telegraphing". But it does create expectations and it does demonstrate intent.

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Again you still seem to equating pledges of equipment for deliver and sustained training and logistics. You have looked at the crazy quit of equipment the Ukraine has - yes? I am willing to bet no senior officer for logistic in the US military would trade places with the Ukraine's trying to juggle basically now a whole set of current past and retired NATO kit. The simple fact no matter where I look the bulk of the equipment Ukraine needs to launched an offensive will simply not likely be moved and supported till the end of May. Again I might agree with your feeling if all the currently pleaded equipment had been delivered starting right after Kviv did not fall.
    What's your point? This wasn't known in March? It couldn't have been predicted? I don't think so. This sounds like massaging the message to me in order to cover a failure.

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Again the key thing is the West has provided a lot aid but always well after what would have been the optimal time. Before the invasion and in the period while Kyiv was attacked just light equipment and some dusted off M113 and Humvees... what give somebody for maybe a guerilla campaigns based of Lviv. Then oh wait well it looks Russia failed at decapitation and has ground to halt so I guess PAct era stuff where we can dig it up, lots of vietnam era stuff, left overs from the GWOT - but no planes, tanks, real AFVs or NATO air defense. Hey looks like with pile of second rate stuff you managed to clear out Northern Ukraine and invite the Russian to decamp to the left bank of Dnieper. Now let's agonize for months now about new aid or say dealing with the discovery that nobody in NATO has stocks or production capacity for high intensity war. Than sorta deal with that but no agonize over F-16s. Honest I think you can point the finger at the US and NATO and not Ukraine if the spring offensive is bumped back a month .
    You forget that Ukraine has already conducted one rather successful offensive, during the autumn. Why could these shortcomings be countered then but not now? Also pointing the finger to NATO every time Ukraine fails doesn't do much to avoid the sunk cost fallacy. Are you saying Ukraine can't possibly fail, unless its failure is attributed to "not receiving enough/timely backing"? I guess then we should go all in and start bombing Russia. Well no thank you. There has to be a limit, there has to be certain reasonable parameters that would guarantee a return to this investment. If not, then this is folly.
    Last edited by Alastor; May 21, 2023 at 11:41 AM.

  18. #8638
    Vanoi's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-r...53946075824565

    Apparently the US has buckled under pressure and agreed to allow the Euros to give Ukraine some F-16s and help train them on the aircraft. It's good news but even if true none of these aircraft would be ready to participate in any upcoming offensive. Shows that Russian "red lines" are nothing but bluffs.

  19. #8639
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    The various players are attempting to shape events through controlling the narrative. Putin and Prigozhin both want glorious victory, so they pour resources into Bakhmut.

    Putin needs some VPs for the home front so it keeps being trotted out as a "victory".

    Prigzhin wants more resources so he says"we're close bit we're running out of ammo".

    Ukraine wants more support so they say "they're close" too, creates a sense of urgency. Likewise the promised offensive, sounds good and gets donors excited, but they will have to deliver something eventually or they will look stupid.

    Putins failure to deliver Bakhmut despite disproportionate effort has made him look weak, and lying a bout it makes him look desperate. Prigozhins contradictory message makes the Russian effort seem ill coordinated. Ukraine are a long way from this level of propaganda disconnection.

  20. #8640
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    The various players are attempting to shape events through controlling the narrative. Putin and Prigozhin both want glorious victory, so they pour resources into Bakhmut.

    Putin needs some VPs for the home front so it keeps being trotted out as a "victory".

    Prigzhin wants more resources so he says"we're close bit we're running out of ammo".

    Ukraine wants more support so they say "they're close" too, creates a sense of urgency. Likewise the promised offensive, sounds good and gets donors excited, but they will have to deliver something eventually or they will look stupid.

    Putins failure to deliver Bakhmut despite disproportionate effort has made him look weak, and lying a bout it makes him look desperate. Prigozhins contradictory message makes the Russian effort seem ill coordinated. Ukraine are a long way from this level of propaganda disconnection.
    The doubt is hilarious. The Russians fumbled around for months upon months trying to take Bakhmut with what to show for it? Tens of thousands of it's men dead. Tons of equipment lost. All to claim "victory."

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