Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[conon394]

Latest missile attack raises some issues that feed back to some back and forth about Russia Nukes a bit ago. So what on Sunday Russia tossed out a big wave of Iranian drones. But now 2 days later it throws out some 24(?) missiles... And of course the Air Force is nowhere to be seen. It strikes me Russia is incapable of carrying out any kind of strategic or even operational level actions in the realm of missiles and airforce. Had all that been concentrated on say the night of the 8th/9th and accompanied my Russian aircraft with HARM type missiles (I know Russia has them but not going to google it) and sundry other aircraft you might really have caught Ukraine off guard. The would light up to shoot down the drones and missiles and have to also deal with hither too for unexpected aircraft incursions. Also of course by estimation Russia is supposed to have a lot S-300 missiles laying about (although it was supposed to have more T 72s as well before it needed T 55s) and a wave of those would have only added to and attack's weight.

That Russia seemingly can't manage that does make me wonder just in what state functionality their nuclear deterrent is in.

[Septentrionalis]

That Russia seeming can't manage that does make me wonder just in what state functionality their nuclear deterrent is in.

A very good question. At this point it is starting to look like the delivery systems just aren't there even if the warheads exist and are functional, which in itself is probably under doubt.

Since the airforce and modern armor look non-existant in comparison to what existed on paper prior to the war, it sounds like a long shot that the entire nuclear arsenal would be managed well and kept up to date. Especially since those are weapons that are never meant to be used and their main function is just to exist to keep things at a balance. One could imagine that nuclear capability would be a good place to save (or embezzle) some money because it is never to be deployed in full view of the world in case Russia needs to invade a neighbor.

[conon394]

Yes in every way Putin is doing Russia no favors in how disorganized its looking. Again today 15 missiles? Why. All intercepted seemingly. OK so maybe Ukraine had to expend something over one shot per interception. But with Hawk and more modern NATO systems coming on line and the fact that the sea sparrow can used by BUK platform I not sure sure down beat projection in the leaked documents holds anymore. Russia just seems to randomly firing what is randomly available on a day and with no particular objective in mind.

But yes back to Nukes one was always told well they are different corruption rot would not effect them. But one assumes that would have say applied to the Air Force as well but seemily it was not immune so its getting harder not extrapolate. I always thought Russia temper tantrum over the ABMs setup planed by Bushy Jr in Poland and ROmania was over the top. I mean the number of interceptors was too small small impact Russia's deterrent. Maybe They knew something they were not letting on.

Anyway News from Bakhmut gets more weird. So Prigozhin and his boys are back but now he is saying that russian Regulars and Gazprom mercs (really you can't make this crap up - how many independent forces is Putin using) bugged out costing ground his guys had taken.

[Coughdrop addict]

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-bakh.../32405897.html

Ukraine says its forces have successfully fought off scores of attacks in Bakhmut, forcing Russian troops to retreat in parts of the bitterly contested eastern city as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed to retake every patch of Ukrainian land occupied by Russia amid expectations of an upcoming counteroffensive.

The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said in its daily update on May 11 that Ukrainian defenders had repelled 39 Russian assaults on the Bakhmut-Adviyivka-Maryinka front line during the previous 24 hours, the focal point of Russia's military efforts in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk.

The reports appear to back up comments in recent days by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the private Wagner Russian mercenary group, who said several kilometers of frontline territory had been lost as regular Russian Army forces fled in the face of fierce fighting in the area, which has dragged on for months with heavy casualties reported on both sides.


Prigozhin has said his group suffered losses of around 500 men alone in the Russian retreat.

History will record the Battle of Bakhmut as the turning point that broke the back of the Russian fascist invasion, and the beginning of the collapse of the Russian State. We're seeing signs of this already with Prigozhin getting away with openly criticizing Putin and Putin's lackeys, something that would have resulted in his death or arrest within hours only a year ago. Now Putin's power is so degraded that he cannot, or maybe dares not, do anything. This sends the message to others that it may be safe to voice dissent, something an authoritarian state can ill afford if it wants to keep it's grip on power.

[sumskilz]

Yes in every way Putin is doing Russia no favors in how disorganized its looking. Again today 15 missiles? Why. All intercepted seemingly.

Reminds me of 2021, when on several occasions Hamas managed to launch simultaneous barrages of over a hundred rockets each at Tel Aviv, but then you can’t really expect the primary successor of a former superpower to operate with the same degree of sophistication as a corrupt jihadi quasi-state fighting against a technologically superior enemy who has complete air superiority.

[Kyriakos]

Looking on the bright side, there will be some notable tech improvements during ww3. Those of us lucky enough to be on the right side of the massively walled megalopolis, will possibly have more toys.

[conon394]

Looking on the bright side, there will be some notable tech improvements during ww3. Those of us lucky enough to be on the right side of the massively walled megalopolis, will possibly have more toys.

You do seem to have a bit a thing about WW3 why? DO look back an immagine every day Americans were thinking oh now is this the Vietnam turn nuclear and its WW3.


-----------------

Reminds me of 2021, when on several occasions Hamas managed to launch simultaneous barrages of over a hundred rockets each at Tel Aviv, but then you can’t really expect the primary successor of a former superpower to operate with the same degree of sophistication as a corrupt jihadi quasi-state fighting against a technologically superior enemy who has complete air superiority.

Does Hamas maybe have a less corrupt promotion system?

[Septentrionalis]

Russia fighting a world war sounds great given how they cannot even beat Ukraine. And I wonder who would join them in such an insane venture. The short list of foreign delegates to the Victory Day celebrations should make it clear that even showing support to Russia is going out of fashion among their traditional friends.

[Mithradates]

Wunderwaffe!

Volodymyr Tretyak:
Igor Girkin's sarcastic comment about T-55 serving in the RU military. He also shared a picture of the tank, which is currently somewhere in occupied territories.

Translation:

Meet the new wonder of Russian military technology - "T-55-MPK-2" ("Modernized Spring Bed Two"). Speed - 26 Mach in dense layers of the atmosphere, practically invisible for radars and not penetrated by any artillery weapons of the pre-World War I period. Next in line is the T-34-85, shown yesterday at the parade on Red Square.

[conon394]

Well I grant the double cope cage will maybe stop hand grenades delivered by tiny drone. And if the the tank is buttoned up that might be ok but... I pretty sure I would never light up that active IR spotlight unless I had a death wish.

edit I got to admit I am really stunned they deploy them as tanks in any capacity and without obviously any upgraded night optics. My kid is in the navy (so he and mates follow the war news ) and when we both came across this a while back we both were convinced they were going to be built into the russian defense lines. In revetments and likely covered with sand bags and such and concealment covers... It really speaks to how hard corruption and mismanagement much have hit the supposed stockpiles of T72s and T80s the Russians nominaly had.

[Vanoi]

South Africa might not be as neutral as once thought.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-we...ddf5d892e44f85

CAPE TOWN, South Africa (AP) — The U. S. ambassador to South Africa accused the country Thursday of providing weapons and ammunition to Russia for its war in Ukraine via a cargo ship linked to a sanctioned company that docked secretly at a naval base near the city of Cape Town in December.


South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said an investigation into the visit by a Russian vessel named Lady R to his nation’s main naval base was already underway behind the scenes with the help of U.S. intelligence services before Ambassador Reuben Brigety went public at a news conference in the South African capital, Pretoria, that the cargo was weapons and ammunition.

[conon394]

South Africa might not be as neutral as once thought.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-we...ddf5d892e44f85

BRICS solidarity? Not going to get to the promised land if you let the R fall out. I mean BICS might get you a copyright infringement law suit.

[conon394]

So looks like the UK is playing an interesting roll. They are providing Storm Shadow missiles for Ukraine they seem to be repeating the same steps they did with the Challengers that is essential ratcheting up aid to Ukraine but both covering for the US and Germany.

In any case with them in unknown numbers and what we don't know is how much work has been done to get them integrated to a plane that can use them already. And the fact Taiwan as agreed to hold of its purchase of GLSDBs it would seem Ukraine should have the means to drive back Russian logistics and C&C from the from farther. Just an uniformed guess but I would think this puts a Ukraine offensive later rather than sooner. Late June? I would think Ukraine would want to repeat the same process it used with the HIMARS and related to drive back russian logistics with its new range weapons.

[Coughdrop addict]

https://www.rferl.org/a/bakhmut-batt.../32408348.html

The Russian Defense Ministry has acknowledged its forces retreated from positions north of the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region that for months has been the scene of heavy fighting.
Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said at a news briefing on May 12 that Russian forces had "occupied a new frontier" at the Berkhivske reservoir.

Konashenkov said Ukraine had launched an assault with more than 1,000 troops and up to 40 tanks after advancing the day before in the Soledar direction "along the entire line of contact" with a length of more than 95 kilometers.
The retreat allows Ukrainian troops to control the road to the town of Chasiv Yar, the only highway currently supplying Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut.
The gains, if confirmed, would be the biggest for Ukraine in six months. It is also unclear if the developments were part of a long-planned counteroffensive, which the head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said on May 11 had already begun.
Prigozhin, Russian military bloggers, and the Ukrainian Army had previously reported about the retreat. Prigozhin acknowledged it in an audio message, saying that what Konashenkov described "unfortunately is called a rout and not a regrouping."

In a separate video message, he said the Ukrainians had seized high ground overlooking Bakhmut and opened the main highway leading into the city from the west. This could lead to the encirclement of his mercenaries inside the city, Prigozhin said.

There also were reports of Ukrainian advances to the south, suggesting a coordinated push by Kyiv to encircle Russian forces in Bakhmut.

At what point does Prigozhin just throw up his hands and get out of Ukraine with whatever is left of Wagner?

[Kyriakos]

Maybe Russia wants to use Bakhmut as a meatgrinder, drawing in waves of ukrainian troops to destroy them.
Jokingly referring to the explanation of why Russia took over the area
One thing I have read about the advances in Bakhmut (by Russia) is that they atypically were not using heavy artillery attacks this time, like in all previous advances. Instead leaving the ground troops to do all the work (Wagner).
This could mean many things, including that there is artillery shell shortage after more than a year of war.
At any rate, the narrative that Bakhmut meant nothing, should be dismissed. If it meant nothing, you wouldn't see a counter-attack there.

[PointOfViewGun]

At any rate, the narrative that Bakhmut meant nothing, should be dismissed. If it meant nothing, you wouldn't see a counter-attack there.

That's not how war works... You would see a counter-attack anywhere you see enemy presence. That, however, says nothing about the importance of a location by itself.

[Septentrionalis]

It's been a while since we have looked at Ukraine's supporters. Here it is expressed as a proportion of GDP. Dark blue indicates bilateral support, light blue support through EU institutions.

The United States figure looked intuitively wrong to me given their generous donations. It turns out that their GDP is just so much higher than Europe's that one could say that the relative poverty of EU countries makes EU contribution look big in comparison. There are other interesting observations to be made from these figures.



https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-a...pport-tracker/

[Sar1n]

Maybe Russia wants to use Bakhmut as a meatgrinder, drawing in waves of ukrainian troops to destroy them.
Jokingly referring to the explanation of why Russia took over the area
One thing I have read about the advances in Bakhmut (by Russia) is that they atypically were not using heavy artillery attacks this time, like in all previous advances. Instead leaving the ground troops to do all the work (Wagner).
This could mean many things, including that there is artillery shell shortage after more than a year of war.
At any rate, the narrative that Bakhmut meant nothing, should be dismissed. If it meant nothing, you wouldn't see a counter-attack there.

What I've been saying here all along is coming true. Ukraine effectively leveraged Russia's own propaganda to make Bakhmut an important target for propaganda reasons, making them throw what's left of their offensive power at it. The long battle wore them out and now, Ukraine seems to be closing the fist around them. If they run, it'll be massive morale shock to Russia, and if they stay and get killed, Russia's offensive capabilities will effectively be castrated, and it will have no recourse but to hope that the Ukrainians will get too tired to continue offensives and accept peace with some land loss. I wouldn't bet on that.

Effectively, the months of constant "Bakhmut is about to fall" and related propaganda created a military example of sunk cost fallacy for Russia, and Ukraine seems to be exploiting it to the fullest.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Press release

Package of measures for Ukraine worth over 2.7 billion euros

Publication date 05/13/2023

Press Package of measures for Ukraine worth over 2.7 billion euros

Federal government announces further package of measures for Ukraine

The Ministry of Defense informs that the federal government is preparing another military support package for Ukraine. This is intended to continue to support Ukraine in its defense against Russia's illegal war of aggression.

"With this valuable contribution of urgently needed military material, we are showing once again that Germany is serious about its support. We all wish for a speedy end to this terrible and illegal war by Russia against the Ukrainian people. Unfortunately, this is not yet foreseeable. Therefore, Germany will provide any help it can - as long as it takes," said Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

The new extensive package of measures that Germany is currently putting together is worth over 2.7 billion euros. This package of measures follows our previous support priorities and includes, among other things, material from the areas of artillery, air defense, armored combat vehicles and engineering capabilities.

It includes, among other things

18 wheeled howitzers,
artillery ammunition,
guided missiles for our air defense systems,
four IRIS-T SLM Infra Red Imaging System Tail Surface Launched Medium Range fire units and twelve IRIS-T SLS launch devices,
more battle and infantry fighting vehicles (30 Leopard 1 A5 and 20 Marder),
over 100 armored combat vehicles,
over 200 reconnaissance drones.

All of this and more comes from industrial stocks or industrial production. The implementation of these measures decided by the Federal Government has been initiated.

https://www.bmvg.de/de/presse/milita...kraine-5623392

The 12 IRIS-T SLS launch devices are high mobile and for short range IRIS-T missiles, which can be combined with the IRIS-T SLM medium range system.

The Bundeswehr has some hundreds of the SLS rockets in stock, which can be delivered than quite quickly.

On longterm IRIS-T missiles must be massproduced to decrease their costs.

[Kyriakos]

What I've been saying here all along is coming true. Ukraine effectively leveraged Russia's own propaganda to make Bakhmut an important target for propaganda reasons, making them throw what's left of their offensive power at it. The long battle wore them out and now, Ukraine seems to be closing the fist around them. If they run, it'll be massive morale shock to Russia, and if they stay and get killed, Russia's offensive capabilities will effectively be castrated, and it will have no recourse but to hope that the Ukrainians will get too tired to continue offensives and accept peace with some land loss. I wouldn't bet on that.

Effectively, the months of constant "Bakhmut is about to fall" and related propaganda created a military example of sunk cost fallacy for Russia, and Ukraine seems to be exploiting it to the fullest.

It is a town, so logically it has fallen when close to 100% fell. Russia controls what, 95% of it?
The advance includes areas around it, as shown in the Eastory video posted earlier in the thread.
Ukrainian offensive will be interesting to see, given the entrenched positions.