Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[conon394]

Prepare for a multipolar currency world | Financial Times

Oh god oh god no I thought I supposed to prepare for with the Yen the 80s and than the Euro. At least those were credible but really the RMB. Really.................................. Sorry that was me falling out of my chair laughing it hurt but I'm back. Oh wait and reference to BRICS that funny as well.

But in any case

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

So the RMB is in that red 10%. But that also includes the Canadian dollar, The Australian Dollar, The Swiss franc. In fact of that 10% only a 25% is in RMB. And of that 30% is held by Russia.

Aside the PPP BS inflating China economy you have their systemic just making stuff up in reporting growth....

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...enEtAl_web.pdf

Not even mentioning the yawning black hole of unknowns that is China's internal debt markets.

Overall not seeing a US worry here. If anything if correct you should be worried Ludicus a the Euro and Euro debt is far more attractive than the RMB and for somebody worried bout Europe's economy Germany and company will not like a strong Euro.

[Alastor]

Interesting: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65245065

The presence of Western special forces in Ukraine has been the subject of quiet speculation for more than a year. But it's never been confirmed, until now.

[conon394]

Interesting: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65245065

Well as long as they take off any national identifiers that's OK Putin says back in 2014.

[Alastor]

Well as long as they take off any national identifiers that's OK Putin says back in 2014.

Whataboutism. Funnily enough.

[conon394]

Whataboutism. Funnily enough.

Turnabout is fair play. Be hard for a man who laments the fall of the USSR to complain given those soviet Russian pilots flying Migs in the Korean war with Chinese markings and to his own little green men to winge about some 20 special forces.

[Laser101]

Well as long as they take off any national identifiers that's OK Putin says back in 2014.

Special forces are generally deniable assets; if they get caught, they are disavowed.

[Alastor]

Turnabout is fair play. Be hard for a man who laments the fall of the USSR to complain given those soviet Russian pilots flying Migs in the Korean war with Chinese markings and to his own little green men to winge about some 20 special forces.

Look at that. More whataboutism.

[Cyclops]

I thought we all knew there were Poles Poms and Yanks in there "advising" from day 1? Even an ignoramus like myself heard about it. Mostly intel and suggesting where to point lasers to guide munitions etc. no fingers on any triggers, which shows remarkable restraint by the Poles given how horny they are for a war with Russia.

I guess now Vladimir knows he will have to trot out ol' reliable "we have nuclear weapons...no no listen guys, I'm serious this time...listen to me....".

Cue stern lecture about flirting with Armageddon and how the US is at fault because somehow Russia is on autopilot and must be handed a victory here because Vlad's feelings, we mustn't escalate by resisting.

[Kyriakos]

Hm, if we are going to act like nuclear weapons are never going to be used (used again; US already used two in war), it will only ensure they will be used.
No need to pretend (eg) the US would be fine with losing territory, while it still had nukes, and would instead choose to back down and leave behind millions of USians so as to prevent world nuclear war.

Anyway, Russia is still advancing; Bahmut is another of those typically urbanized Donbass areas, and it still has fallen (80% or whatever). The front there includes many smaller towns and villages, already taken over by Russia. Eastory made a video about this, which while it cannot be perfectly accurate (due to lack of intel), at least provides information about the terrain and a map of the overall gains:

[Sir Adrian]

But the announcement was made in the wake of Macron visit to China and surrey it is politically timed as a good - can't see why. Anyways between European subsidies and the state owned companies that make it up I think you are stretching



Err per Ludicus link sounds like bending over for Xi - I guess you can like that hope it works out well. Seems like a new line in Spain of Croatia or France would be better for Europe but hey whatever good new direction maybe a some BMW assembly plants in China next? Oh wait I know a Siemens chip plant that can never go sideways.

It appears Macron was not chatting at all. His France 2030 plan would severely reduce France's dependency on China if implemented fully.

[Cyclops]

Hm, if we are going to act like nuclear weapons are never going to be used (used again; US already used two in war), it will only ensure they will be used.
No need to pretend (eg) the US would be fine with losing territory, while it still had nukes, and would instead choose to back down and leave behind millions of USians so as to prevent world nuclear war.

Anyway, Russia is still advancing; Bahmut is another of those typically urbanized Donbass areas, and it still has fallen (80% or whatever). The front there includes many smaller towns and villages, already taken over by Russia. Eastory made a video about this, which while it cannot be perfectly accurate (due to lack of intel), at least provides information about the terrain and a map of the overall gains:

Yes if the US says "we will nuke you" I believe them. Russia? They say a lot of ****. Nazi Jews, Satan in Azovstal, Russia stronk, muh nukes, it would be funny except for the war crimes.

Has Bakhmut fallen? Like Kyiv, right? What a victory point mine it has been, it must be the absolute nerve centre, critical arsenal, secret bioweapons lab, pagan temple and most advanced transhuman cloning facility of all time.

I have to say if the unstoppable bear keeps giving back such vital territory to Ukraine this war will never end.

Russian incompetence is the best explanation for this failed war. 4D chess explanations like "Putin wants a forever war to stay in power" or "China is stressing the US by proxy" may have elements of truth, but have a Trumpish smell of hindsight and QANON self congratulation.

We all know the drill: losing a real fight? Invent a bull**** side argument and declare yourself the winner of that. Putin sounding Trumpish, is that a good thing?

Vlads mates need a competent brigand boss to keep them safe from war crimes trials. I guess they feel safer every time Bakhmut is declared over but, bear with me here, what if it doesn't fall, and Ukraine counter attacks and takes back more of its sovereign territory?

[conon394]

Seems to me Bakhmut will probably fall Russia has been all in for a while. Ukraine has not committed some best units to try counter attack the pincers. Those seem to be out of the fight and rearming and re constituting. The question I think that is unknowable now is Ukraine making a good choice that its opted to accept Russia making the City a thing. If they are getting a 1:5 or more casualty ratio out of it might be a good fight with not their top tier units. If sliding into something 1:3 or less they bug . They have better defensive positions close behind them with high ground.

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It appears Macron was not chatting at all. His France 2030 plan would severely reduce France's dependency on China if implemented fully.

Fair enough I read up but he still made a mistake I think in being cheerleader Airbus expansion in China which is close to cooperate suicide.

[Ludicus]

Ukrainian counteroffensive delayed by number of factors

Ukraine's upcoming counteroffensive has been delayed due to a combination of factors, including weather, slow equipment deliveries, and an insufficient amount of ammunition, the Washington Post reported on April 12.
The long-awaited counteroffensive is seen as a critical juncture to take back Ukrainian territory under Russian control, and failure to do so could push Ukrainians to the negotiating table, the Washington Post wrote.
According to the Washington Post, the recent U.S. intelligence document leaks are also complicating matters, given that they delve into details about the Ukrainian military, which could potentially force them to alter plans for the counteroffensive.

Ah, the leaks…Meme Group on Discord Is Focus of Uproar Over Leaked - New York Times.

(…) Video game players have reportedly leaked classified military secrets in the past, to prove their point in online arguments and convince game developers to make more accurate combat vehicles.
(…) The posts appeared to have lingered online for nearly a month before they started getting attention beyond Discord. Users on 4chan posted images from the documents as early as April 5. A pro-Russian channel on the messaging app Telegram shared the images later that day. Users on Twitter took notice, and so did the world.

Zelensky’s criticism was harsh… Ukraine say many war secrets safe from intel leaks

Ukraine’s leaders say they don’t see a major U.S. intelligence leak as gravely damaging future offensives. A key reason: They have long held back on sharing their most sensitive operational information, doubting Washington’s ability to keep their secrets safe.

Lloyd Austin says, US will 'turn over every rock' to find source of leak ... - Reuters

But the documents have been steadily appearing on several internet platforms, with some circulating for weeks or even months. It seems to me that L.A. is about to be fired from his job. In fact, analog data aren’t going away anytime soon; digital business is a bad idea when it comes to state secrets. How to keep war secrets safe for just a few bucks, L.Austin?



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According to T. Brenner, Mathew 12:30 is the foundational moral of the modern political though: whoever (Macron!) is not with me is against me. Europe Is Disastrously Split on China - Foreign Policy

Macron coined the heroic formula: “I am neither Taiwan nor the U.S. As a good stoic, I can only deal with what depends on me. One does not have to mix up everything.” (...) But Macron was not done yet…On the plane ride back, Macron gave an interview to Politico Europe and Les Echos that amounted to a carte blanche for Xi on Taiwan. Macron described Taiwan as a “crisis that is not ours” that Europeans should stay out of and not be “America’s followers.” (…) by presenting his approach as a purely anti-U.S. agenda, he discredited the “European sovereignty” approach even further in the eyes of many.

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Quite right, Lieven... Crimea Has Become a Frankenstein's Monster - Foreign Policy

The Ukrainian government is now trapped by its own uncompromising—and increasingly indefensible—policy (…) My own research in Ukraine last month suggests that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would have very great domestic difficulty in supporting a cease-fire leaving Crimea in Russian hands. Not only would this face strong opposition from hard-line nationalists and the Ukrainian military, but the Ukrainian government has helped foster a general public mood that Crimea must be recovered at all costs (…)

More. Polodyak, the adviser to the head of Office of Zelensky, goes further, and calls for an ethnic and cultural cleansing,

(…)of crucial importance to the issue of Ukraine’s recovery of the territories controlled by Russia since 2014: that of the fate of their populations, much of which have historically identified with Russia. Referring to pro-Russian Crimeans as mankurts (roughly, “brain-dead slaves”), he said: We have to completely close everything related to the Russian cultural space there. We have to eradicate everything Russian (...) We should not have a dialogue about whether a person has the right to use the Russian language or not. Gangsters live there, criminals live there, occupying armies and administrations live there, but let’s reintegrate them with a smile…They should be expelled, and some should be imprisoned.

Zelensky agrees with Polodyak, and compares Russians to beasts.

[StarDreamer]

Zelensky agrees with Polodyak, and compares Russians to beasts.

You might want to mention in what context he called them that... In this case it is due to Russians beheading POWs. Putting them into the same camp as ISIS in barbarity.

[conon394]

But you see that is the fault of Ukraine for non capitulation they made the Russian do it.

[Kyriakos]

Celebrating beheading is obviously barbaric. Beheading does still happen even in state-sanctioned official execution, though (in Saudi, which is also invading a country currently but no one cares )
I'd love to think that no one in (insert your own country) would ever celebrate such barbarism. I doubt it is true, though.

[StarDreamer]

Celebrating beheading is obviously barbaric. Beheading does still happen even in state-sanctioned official execution, though (in Saudi, which is also invading a country currently but no one cares )
I'd love to think that no one in (insert your own country) would ever celebrate such barbarism. I doubt it is true, though.

Well I find it barbaric in any context. There is a reason I will never travel to the region(Saudi Arabia and its neighbours), although barbaric punishments is only a part of the myriad of reasons.

[Cyclops]

Celebrating beheading is obviously barbaric. Beheading does still happen even in state-sanctioned official execution, though (in Saudi, which is also invading a country currently but no one cares )
I'd love to think that no one in (insert your own country) would ever celebrate such barbarism. I doubt it is true, though.

I thought we weren't doing whataboutism? Saudi are scum and their royal family are as bad as Putin. Put them all in a bag and throw them in the river.

My country struggles with war crimes by our forces. There's a VC winner on trial right now and the media blackout is obscuring the course of events but before it went dark media billionaires were using political clout to influence public opinion. In one related case I believe a (highly decorated and respected) whistleblower killed himself.
It's hard to admit "our boys did wrong".

However the abject degeneracy of Russian forces' behavior, and the demented rhetoric of Putin and his simps makes the West look good by comparison.

Low morale troops with weak leadership drift into war crimes. The US had Abu Graib and the like, but Russian morale was so low going in we have Bucha happening in the first three months of the war. Drunken murdering rapists begging victims forgiveness before they rampage again, it's an ugly mess Putin has created.

The basic narrative if Ukraine resisting a mob of rapist war criminals remains more valid than "we need to pressure Ukraine to surrender because nukes".

[Kyriakos]

Ok, and yet imo it isn't "whataboutism" when it is about the entirely different response to a concurrent invasion, when it is done by a pal of US; namely the medieval Saudi despotate.
I view it as a very legitimate issue to bring up, even if only in one or two posts in a thread with thousands of posts

[antaeus]

Ok, and yet imo it isn't "whataboutism" when it is about the entirely different response to a concurrent invasion, when it is done by a pal of US; namely the medieval Saudi despotate.
I view it as a very legitimate issue to bring up, even if only in one or two posts in a thread with thousands of posts

The Biden and MBS are not even on speaking terms at the moment - MBS has been deliberately snubbing the US. As much as anything, because of Biden's withdrawal of support/weapons for the invasion 'nobody cares about', and the removal of the protagonist of that story from the terrorist list.

So I'm not entirely sure what you're getting at there. As a back-handed accusation of hypocrisy, it is fundamentally flawed - if that is your intent. Otherwise, "beheading people is bad and even some countries do it" isn't really necessary. Russian soldiers shouldn't be doing it - the point stands on it's own without the unnecessary comparison.