Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Alastor]

Yeah its extremely vexed and we have a history of looking the other way when our allies do it. Ethnic Russian Crimeans would be cursing the day Putin invaded if it brings about a genocide and rightly so, but that wouldn't wipe any blood off our hands or Kyiv's if some Azov ****s decide to slaughter all Russians.

Less chance of Ukraine doing it than Russia but that's cold comfort for Russian on the ground whose have lived there for 10 generations.

If it comes to Ukraine committing genocide against the Russians of Crimea, I rather doubt they'd be cursing Putin and not the ones actually committing genocide on them. It is interesting than even in the same post where you say it wouldn't wipe the blood off the would-be perpetrators hands, you still opt to deflect blame on Putin. I would argue, this is part of this "looking away" mentality we have.

[conon394]

Crimea and coastal Ukraine was (for a number of reasons) one of the cultural/economic centers of the Russian Empire. Though its loss should be blamed to USSR. Why exactly did the USSR not take that bit back when dissolution was imminent? (one has to assume they just gave it to the Ukraine SSR because at the time Ukraine would be unable to break away, and the only alternative would have been a Crimean SSR).

Economic perhaps. Cultural only after oppressing or removing the locals.

[Sir Adrian]

If it comes to Ukraine committing genocide against the Russians of Crimea, I rather doubt they'd be cursing Putin and not the ones actually committing genocide on them. It is interesting than even in the same post where you say it wouldn't wipe the blood off the would-be perpetrators hands, you still opt to deflect blame on Putin. I would argue, this is part of this "looking away" mentality we have.

They would be cursing Putin because he started the war that led to disaster. Instead of just being patient and waiting for things to evolve naturally he decided to poke the bear with a stick.

Well now we can play the technicality game can't since the Crimean Khanate before it was overrun by Catherine (the supposedly) Great included a bunch of what is Ukraine so not sure are correct.

A bunch of what is now Ukraine was not inhabited by Ukrainians either. Modern day Ukrainians used to only inhabit the western part of the country back in the day, hence why historically they are known as Ruthenians. But this is splitting hairs. I am speaking strictly about the peninsula. The Crimean Khaganate can rule over any amount of land without Crimea being inhabited by ethnicity x or y.

[Nebaki]

Crimea and coastal Ukraine was (for a number of reasons) one of the cultural/economic centers of the Russian Empire.

Cumans, Pechenegs, Goths, Alans or Tatars are not culturally connected to Muscovy.

[Ludicus]

I drop after this since China is off topic. But its the not military industrial complex that would force the US to defend Taiwan it is naked self interest - the US could never allow China to take over Taiwan's chip manufacturing base.

In my opinion, its not off topic. It all boils down to so-called "rules-based international order". Read below. But, first, let's start form the beginning,

Biden Kicks Off “Summit for Democracy” With Netanyahu and and Modi -The New Republic

What a joke

Modi, of course, has been at the helm of an extremist rise in Hindu nationalism in India. As chief minister of the Indian state of Gujarat in 2001, Modi oversaw a massive riot rumored to have been spurred by government and police officials who sought to target Muslims. The riot left more than 1,000 people dead—some 75 percent of whom were Muslim (…)
(…) Israel, of course, is not a thriving democracy, as it operates on a system of apartheid that targets millions of Palestinians.

What Biden means when he says we're fighting 'global battle for democracy - Responsible Statecraft

The Biden administration opened its second Summit for Democracy this week with a panel featuring India’s Narendra Modi and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu. As the leaders of their countries, both have pursued similar forms of exclusionary nationalism.
Indeed, both Modi and Netanyahu were — as they spoke — facing political crises at home in response to their attempts to permanently sideline democratic opposition.
This was a seemingly discordant note with which to begin a democracy conference. Even so, it is very much in keeping with what the Biden administration means when it says that the United States is fighting a global battle for democracy against autocracy.
(…) The salient division in the world, then, is not between democracies and autocracies but between countries that support the existing international order and the two autocracies — China and Russia — that are seeking to reshape it in illiberal ways.
But this raises some awkward questions:
One: Which side are autocratic U.S. allies on if, like Saudi Arabia and UAE, they wage wars of aggression, undermine the democratic political processes of other countries, and use technology for repression?
Two: Which side are democratic countries on if they support China’s efforts to reshape the international order? This is quite common, because many of the things that China does to “tilt the global playing field to its benefit” are things that poor countries—democratic or not—must do if they are to achieve economic development.
Three: Which side is the U.S. on? Because the U.S. violates the rules-based order and engages in coercion on a regular basis (...)

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In fact, in the West, in the US, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the duty to respect the "rules-based international order" is mentioned every single day. This order is said to be crucial for world peace and is being threatened by China - and Russia. In an article in the Foreign Policy (see Some Rules of Global Politics Matter More Than Others )
Stephen Walt of Harvard University points out, in an ironic way, that “One can understand why: Saying the United States is just trying to uphold the rules is politer than saying its goal is to preserve U.S. primacy in perpetuity, weaken China permanently, topple governments it doesn’t like, or undermine its other adversaries. Of course, when U.S. officials say “rules-based order,” they mean the current order, whose rules were mostly made in America”.

It's clear that in the case of the invasion of Ukraine there was a violation of international law enshrined in Article 2, paragraph 4 of the UN Charter.
However, when the invasion of Ukraine is presented as a struggle between democracy versus authoritarianism we are entering a very uncertain terrain, because in the UN Charter there is no direct reference to democracy; what is referred is that the " The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its members”. Placing emphasis on democracy suggests that the West only recognizes the right of defense against the invader to states that the West labels as democratic:of course, Iraq, being a non-democratic state, is/was eligible for invasion.

The Taiwan case also puts the West and the US in a delicate situation in terms of respect for international rules. Taiwan has never been recognized "de jure" as a sovereign state, which would give it the right to defend itself in case of invasion. Since the 1970s, the US has recognized the People's Republic of China and the Beijing government - it is the so-called "one China" policy. Since that time, the Taiwanese government is no longer recognized as a sovereign state, as a one-China government. Taiwan has also not been recognized by either the US or the EU.

At the same time, both the US and the EU reject Taiwan's reintegration/annexation by force.But you see, if China uses force, the West is left with a problem on its hands: is military support for Taiwan in accordance with a rules-based international order when Taiwan is not recognized "de jure" as a sovereign state? Of course not. Isn't denying its sovereignty an implicit admission that it is Chinese territory? And yet, Tsai-McCarthy Meeting Will Escalate US-China Tensions

And around and around we’ll go on a downward spiral toward the worst-case scenario: a direct U.S.-China military crisis or conflict over Taiwan. Given the massive death and destruction that a U.S.-China war over Taiwan would entail, working to avert this worst-case scenario should take precedence over domestic political concerns. Yet Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently demonstrated, yet again, that the administration will cave to hawkish pressures.

From the news.
Ukraine Victory Unlikely This Year, Milley Says - Defense One

Ukraine is unlikely to expel all Russian forces from its territory this year, the top U.S. officer said Friday, giving a grim reality check to the expressed goal and hopeful ambitions of policymakers, diplomats, and defense leaders from Washington to Kyiv. “Zelenskyy has publicly stated many times that the Ukrainian objective is to kick every Russian out of Russian occupied Ukraine. And that is a significant military task. Very, very difficult military task

[Sir Adrian]

Ukraine does not have to expel Russia this year. They have proven to the world that the T-14 Armata is an obsolete piece of garbage. Russia has already lost the war.

All Ukraine has to do now is not lose significant ground while its soldiers are trained on NATO equipment and wait for the opportune moment to start the counter-offensive. Once that happens the war is over.

Cumans, Pechenegs, Goths, Alans or Tatars are not culturally connected to Muscovy.

Catherine the Great has entered the chat. She uses forced russification. It's super effective.

[Ferdiad]

Ukraine does not have to expel Russia this year. They have proven to the world that the T-14 Armata is an obsolete piece of garbage. Russia has already lost the war.

All Ukraine has to do now is not lose significant ground while its soldiers are trained on NATO equipment and wait for the opportune moment to start the counter-offensive. Once that happens the war is over.



Catherine the Great has entered the chat. She uses forced russification. It's super effective.

Only thing is Russia may only need to hold out until 2024 if a Republican wins the presidency. If Biden wins time is on their side and the supplies will keep flowing.

[Cyclops]

If it comes to Ukraine committing genocide against the Russians of Crimea, I rather doubt they'd be cursing Putin and not the ones actually committing genocide on them. It is interesting than even in the same post where you say it wouldn't wipe the blood off the would-be perpetrators hands, you still opt to deflect blame on Putin. I would argue, this is part of this "looking away" mentality we have.

We in the west have form for looking away. We let the Soviets cleanse the Germans. It's a fair argument it could happen again and I've touched on it repeatedly.

I'm glad you find it interesting, I do try.

This is Putins war. Rightly or wrongly he will get blame for the consequences. Nyet?

Maybe its 4d chess, Putin is making Russia a pariah to lock its people to his autocratic rule? I doubt it, I think he's become less competent through illness or corruption.

[Kyriakos]

Economic perhaps. Cultural only after oppressing or removing the locals.

Iirc Chekhov and Gogol are from the region. Also (?) Tchaikovsky.

[conon394]

At the same time, both the US and the EU reject Taiwan's reintegration/annexation by force.But you see, if China uses force, the West is left with a problem on its hands:...

Umm Am I caring is China. Simple fact is the majority of people don't want to part of China at the moment. And Having China take over Taiwan would be a profound blow to the US and Europe. Considering how poorly china adheres to rules it agreed to say via the WTO or say by dodging its contributions to the UN by waving the flag of still being a developing nation. I quite happy with current US policy.

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Gogol

Interesting choice. He is very much much Ukrainian and see as such by Russian in his early career. He seems to gone a bit romantic with pan the Slavic movement which of course could only really be carried at time by Russia and was essentially patronized by the Czar so knew who making sure his bread was buttered. Had he been born 2 centuries earlier he might well have drifted into the court of Poland. Who knows how Taras Bulba would have been than.

[Kyriakos]

Gogol is one of the greatest authors, imo. I particularly love The Overcoat and Diary of a Madman

[conon394]

Not questioning his stature, just that not sure I call him a Russian. he happened to live in the Russian empire and gravitated to where he could make a living doing it - that is great achievement in itself.

[Cyclops]

Iirc Chekhov and Gogol are from the region. Also (?) Tchaikovsky

Wiki says Chekhov was the son of a Voronezh serf (very ancient Slav settlement), Tchaikovsky from further east.

I think Gogol is considered a star of Russian culture whatever his ethnicity. Joyce wrote in English, he was a star of Great British culture.

The Tsars and later Soviets russified conquered areas, and Putin can't be blamed for ethnic Russians outside the Federation, nor should they pay for his crimes.

However Putin has escalated nationalist sentiment and violence across the region, using ethnic Russians as pawns. He's definitely tried to tie their fate to his.

Implied threats to them aren't an excuse to end support for Kyiv and to do so for that reason would be weak and precipitate more thinly veiled brigandage..

Their safety is vital as anyones: Ukraines western aspirations may be a lever to secure them some protection.

Under Putin people are getting shifted around a bit, maybe hes aspiring to some Tsarist Russification or cleansing.

I think the likelihood of genocide and ethnic cleansing has increased, largely due to Putins nationalist leadership, and is more likely to occur if he defeats Ukraine.

[Papay]

Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Leaked NATO documents claim that the dead Russian soldiers are about 16-17.000 and the Ukrainian dead are about 71.000

[Kyriakos]

That's 1-4 the other way around. Even if overstated (?), should put an end to the narrative of Ukraine having far fewer dead than Russia.

[Mithradates]

Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Leaked NATO documents claim that the dead Russian soldiers are about 16-17.000 and the Ukrainian dead are about 71.000

From the article:

Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed.

The modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow, the analysts said.

...

...one of the slides said 16,000 to 17,500 Russian soldiers had been killed while Ukraine had suffered as many as 71,500 troop deaths.

Lets see, before/after photoshop:




Russian ground vehicles from "6,004" to "6 00", they didn't even bother to change the gap between the 6 and the 0 when they removed the comma.

Russian propaganda.

A bit of common sense, if Russian losses were so low, why did they have to mobilize?

...an intelligence leak of this sort, posted on social media and available around the world, is bound to harm intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States.

Even the "original" is BS, low level effort from the FSB.

[Kyriakos]

It's common sense that if the other side (Ukraine) starts with more mobilized than you (which isn't disputed by anyone), and you fail in your goals, you will mobilize more. It's doesn't imply you lost more of a set batch than you could hope to win with, when you already did not win with the original number.

[PointOfViewGun]

Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
Leaked NATO documents claim that the dead Russian soldiers are about 16-17.000 and the Ukrainian dead are about 71.000

Any reason why you chose to present this article in a deceptive manner?

[Papay]

From the article:


Lets see, before/after photoshop:




Russian ground vehicles from "6,004" to "6 00", they didn't even bother to change the gap between the 6 and the 0 when they removed the comma.

Russian propaganda.

A bit of common sense, if Russian losses were so low, why did they have to mobilize?



Even the "original" is BS, low level effort from the FSB.

So the original documents were leaked to the Ukrainian propaganda channels too?

[Ludicus]

Let's try the approach in another way- According to the N.Y.times. Published a few hours ago. What really matters,
Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation

The Pentagon is investigating who may have been behind the leak of the documents, which appeared on Twitter and on Telegram… the disclosures in the original documents, which appear as photographs of charts of anticipated weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths, and other plans, represents a significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine…The documents do not provide specific battle plans, like how, when, and where Ukraine intends to launch its offensive, which American officials say is likely coming in the next month or so.

And because the documents are five weeks old, they offer a snapshot of time — the American and Ukrainian view, as of March 1, of what Ukrainian troops might need for the campaign... To the trained eye of a Russian war planner, field general or intelligence analyst, however, the documents no doubt offer many tantalizing clues and insights. The documents mention, for instance, the expenditure rate of HIMARS — American-supplied high mobility artillery rocket systems, which can launch attacks against targets like ammunition dumps, infrastructure and concentrations of troops, from a distance.

The Pentagon has not said publicly how fast Ukrainian troops are using the HIMARS munitions; the documents do.
A document labeled “top secret” offers the “Status of the Conflict as of 1 Mar.” On that day, Ukrainian officials were at an American base in Wiesbaden, Germany, for war game sessions, and a day later, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the supreme allied commander for Europe, visited the sessions.
…A document labeled “top secret” offers the “Status of the Conflict as of 1 Mar.” On that day, Ukrainian officials were at an American base in Wiesbaden, Germany, for war game sessions, and a day later, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the supreme allied commander for Europe, visited the sessions.

(…) an intelligence leak of this sort, posted on social media and available around the world, is bound to harm intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States.

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Russian -Ukrainian war. News. The UK Ministry of Defence says in its daily update that Russian forces have “highly likely advanced into the town centre and has seized the West Bank of the Bakhmutka River. Ukraine’s key supply route to the west of the town is likely severely threatened.”



Here.
Ministry of Defence on Twitter: "Latest Defence Intelligence

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Edit.

The UN in Crisis: Big Powers and Bad Influence

The dominance of individual powers is the nature of multilateralism, but in the UN system it is particularly marked. The Security Council can only do its job if the five veto-wielding members (the P5: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States) are exemplary supporters of the UN Charter. But they are the most egregious offenders, so the Council is largely dysfunctional, as President Zelensky of Ukraine pointed out in a speech in April to the Council regarding its inability to take effective action against Russia.

Very well, that is true. However, what is amusing is that if Zelensky says so, then the chronic dysfunction of the UN suddenly becomes news. The truth is that no great power obeys UN or ICC decisions contrary to their own decisions. If necessary, they even threaten to arrest the judges. If there is no veto right, the UN ceases to exist. It is worth remembering that even the Universal Declaration of Human Rights was contested by Greeks and Trojans.
Eleanor Roosevelt and the Universal Declaration of Human

American conservatives charged any human rights document crafted by the United Nations would bring socialism to America while delegates from the Soviet bloc argued that racial segregation proved that the western democracies gave only lip service to civil and political rights. Concerns regarding national sovereignty, real or imagined, also threatened to destroy the HRC’s work.