Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[conon394]

The primary one is the loss of access to Russia's resources. The EU made bank by buying cheap natural resources and energy from Russia, using those to fuel our economy.

Overstated, certainly on Energy. I assume you mean mostly natural gas. That is simply a myth in a couple ways. Its true that the legacy production from Gazprom and others in old soviet fields was nominaly less expensive. But natural gas in the US was often less expensive and the US chemical companies were not eating away and BASF's market share. Also Russia's new fields in the Polar region are not cheap and its questionable how long Russia could sustain subsidizing the costs of production. In any case the final myth is it was a short term fantasy. The cost of Russian gas was the green house gas emissions of Russian production and transportation and those were high indeed but of course not on Europe's books (like everyone who runs the 'bridge fuel 'line is lie that just looks at the emission from burning NG not it production ) except for enjoying those increasingly common summer heat waves.

Now that's gone. I would imagine Germany in particular will be hurt by this the most. But the EU in general won't fare much better. I had shared in the past articles discussing the tight economic dependence between Germany and Russia.

And they are often pretty hysterical. Germany went out of its way to make those links and realistically in the long run it will be better off not being tied to Russia by intent not economics.

[Alastor]

So your point is that model was unsustainable in the long run so better to crash it now than let it fail later? Because that's not a very good point.

In addition, the fact that Germany oriented their economy this way, which we can argue was a mistake, does not mean that reorienting it is not damaging, nor is there any guarantee that future alternatives will be better. There are never such guarantees. The US is similarly tied to China for example, for manufactured goods rather than raw resources, but that's besides the point. The point is the US oriented its economy thusly. If tomorrow there is a forced and rapid decoupling you think it won't hurt? Of course it will, that it was a mistake to tie your economy to China's in the first place won't offer much solace.

[conon394]

The point is the US oriented its economy thusly. If tomorrow there is a forced and rapid decoupling you think it won't hurt? Of course it will, that it was a mistake to tie your economy to China's in the first place won't offer much solace.

Well to be fair I always though it was a epic blunder. It killed the potential promise of NAFTA and was a geopolitical mistake of the first order and yes I would pay the price to see it undone there really is nothing at Walmart I not rather buy for a higher price and better quality. Same sure Mountain Pass is not a 1:1 replacement for China's near monopoly on rare earths but its something I gladly pay to its subsidized reopening and maximum production.

So your point is that model was unsustainable in the long run so better to crash it now than let it fail later? Because that's not a very good point.

You are simplifying my points. But overall yes. Russian natural gas or other resources was not some magical mystery part to German economic success. Russian resources depending on what you look at were not particularly cheap and in many cases available elsewhere often with less corruption overhead. Germany is better off with a more wide ranging supply and it would have been better served with more nuclear power (or not turning off its plants) and investing even more rapidly in wind and solar on just the energy front in the long term rather propping up Russian natural gas production.

[Alastor]

Well to be fair I always though it was a epic blunder. It killed the potential promise of NAFTA and was a geopolitical mistake of the first order and yes I would pay the price to see it undone there really is nothing at Walmart I not rather buy for a higher price and better quality. Same sure Mountain Pass is not a 1:1 replacement for China's near monopoly on rare earths but its something I gladly pay to its subsidized reopening and maximum production.

I understand your line of thinking. But that was not the point I was making. The point was it would be damaging. A simple observation of fact. That you believe the damage would be worth it, doesn't deny the damage and doesn't necessarily make it so. Fact is you don't know. That you are prepared to pay the price is a political choice, not everyone would feel the same.

You are simplifying my points. But overall yes. Russian natural gas or other resources was not some magical mystery part to German economic success. Russian resources depending on what you look at were not particularly cheap and in many cases available elsewhere often with less corruption overhead. Germany is better off with a more wide ranging supply and it would have been better served with more nuclear power (or not turning off its plants) and investing even more rapidly in wind and solar on just the energy front in the long term rather propping up Russian natural gas production.

It wasn't a mystery, nor a magical part. But it was a significant part nonetheless. Again you are in the business of the predicting the future here. Maybe in the future things will turn for the better, we will see that once the future arrives. The current reality is that the economy has been in for one shock after the other. Do note, I don't really disagree that a diversification of sources would have been beneficial, I even made that point earlier, just like I don't disagree that nuclear power would have served Germany(and the EU as a whole) well. But, this decoupling, if it was to happen, had to happen on our (economic) terms, not like this. Like this, it hurts us and this is an avoidable hurt, one created by a political choice. Or rather political ineptness and shortsightedness.

[Cyclops]

Indeed, I think the same.

I wasn't discussing the moral angle. Just stating a fact. But yes, the example you bring is a fitting one.

At this point, my only real fear, as someone from the EU, is nukes. I don't think there is much more that this conflict can do to damage our economy that it isn't doing already and there is no path in sight to restore the damage done anyway. I'm certainly not afraid of a conventional Russian response. But then again, I never was. They won't attack NATO.

Oh I see, the argument has evolved from "you used the wrong meaning of the word" to "you use the wrong dictionary"... sigh. Ok, bring in the OED definition that apparently contradicts me then. Since Google Words is wrong here.

Sorry stop escalating this thread, I de-escalated that point and its a fait accompli. That means its a new status quo, but not that its off the table.

So your point is that model was unsustainable in the long run so better to crash it now than let it fail later? Because that's not a very good point.

I think honestly Germany and Russia were attempting to spread peace with Euros as Germany quite pragmatically did with France, in this instance by promoting energy integration across Eastern Europe.

They were doing business, so they weren't doing war and it was a slow creeping peaceful solution. US didn't like it (a robust trade net out of their reach that maybe plugs into the One Belt Road thingy?) which is probably the biggest shadow over this war. European success has been slowed by the GFC (not entirely Europe's fault) Brexit (ditto) and this.

Dunno what the new path will be for Germany, probably pay to play with US-controlled resources like Gulf Oil and African minerals. Russia still has fairly sustainable autarky and land border trading partners.

The contrast with China is stark, they'd love to cancel US controlled resources but can't afford to: Australia has experienced only slow decline in orders and mostly in line with China's cooling economy.

[Alastor]

Sorry stop escalating this thread, I de-escalated that point and its a fait accompli. That means its a new status quo, but not that its off the table.

No idea what you are saying, but I'm pretty sure you are using those words exactly like your OED copy advised you to. It's evidently not a very good copy, but you do you.

----

On other news, there was apparently a bomb attack in St. Petersburg and a Russian military blogger was the target:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65155075
Prigozhin subsequently claimed that Bakhmut has been captured and dedicated that victory to the memory of said blogger. On closer inspection though, it looks like Prigozhin is being a bit flexible with the truth. Apparently admitting that Bakhmut is still otherwise contested, but they captured the town hall and apparently that means that legally they have captured Bakhmut. Oh well, I guess if legally they captured the city, then the Ukrainians will simply lay down their arms, they wouldn't want to be caught breaking the law now. If anything it's an... interesting interpretation.

----

Unsurprisingly, Ukrainians are showing a complete and total disregard for "the law" and continue the fight:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65158796
Damn crims. Russia ought to start a war on crime next.

[conon394]

Times article that put's Putin's blunder in more perspective. On balance its hard to deny the performance of the Russian military is hardly going to be good for arms sales. And sanctions are constraining production and thus the ability for Russia to even meet its existing contracts.

The T-90Ss tanks documented at Oryx as destroyed or capture were supposed to go to likely India or somebody else they ain't going to happy (although given the pop thing their tankers might be). It not just deliveries is spare parts etc. as well.


In any case Interesting NYT story Johnny on the spot seems to the ROK to step with capacity to eat Russian market share.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/05/w...orea-arms.html

Feels a little weak to me on a couple points can't really think the ROK cares about hurting Russian feelings. And since Russia is getting ammo from the North they are certainly paying for it somehow thus helping the North. My guess is the US would prefer to use draw down to supply Ukraine (ammo gets dated) and simply buy new from the ROK while US industry works to ramp up. Also likely works out better budget wise all around.

[Laser101]

So the Guardian recently reported a draft of a plan by the Ukrainian government (or a Ukrainian official at any rate) regarding how to handle Crimea if/when they retake it. The plan has a pretty strong between the lines implication of mass repression and/or expulsion of the Russian population.

Honestly, this kind of leads to the question of why Western governments ought to support Ukrainian reclamation of Crimea if they'd just replace repression of a minority population with repression of a majority population.

[PointOfViewGun]

So the Guardian recently reported a draft of a plan by the Ukrainian government (or a Ukrainian official at any rate) regarding how to handle Crimea if/when they retake it. The plan has a pretty strong between the lines implication of mass repression and/or expulsion of the Russian population.

Honestly, this kind of leads to the question of why Western governments ought to support Ukrainian reclamation of Crimea if they'd just replace repression of a minority population with repression of a majority population.

Did you read your own link? It talks of explusion of Russians that moved to Crimea after 2014.

[Laser101]

Did you read your own link? It talks of explusion of Russians that moved to Crimea after 2014.

Fair, but Crimea was majority-Russian before that. I doubt the Ukrainians will be overly picky about the distinction when they have a convenient excuse to ignore it.

[Sir Adrian]

Ukraine tried to sneak in anti-minority laws that banned minorities using their native language in public spaces and cut funding for education and cultural events. They doubled back after they got called out by Romania, Poland and Hungary.

I would not be surprised if a Ukrainian reclamation of Crimea would see the repression of all Russians there.

[conon394]

Ukraine tried to sneak in anti-minority laws that banned minorities using their native language in public spaces and cut funding for education and cultural events. They doubled back after they got called out by Romania, Poland and Hungary.

I would not be surprised if a Ukrainian reclamation of Crimea would see the repression of all Russians there.

Fair enough but also its worth noting most long standing European Western and Eastern European states have at various time done the same there a reason most French dialects have diapered. Ukrainian culture and language have been repressed by the USSR and or Russian empire for a while its hard not expect a push for counter reaction.

[PointOfViewGun]

Fair enough but also its worth noting most long standing European Western and Eastern European states have at various time done the same there a reason most French dialects have diapered. Ukrainian culture and language have been repressed by the USSR and or Russian empire for a while its hard not expect a push for counter reaction.

Keep in mind at the time when he was asked to show the law in question he could not. The reference number he gave pointed at a law piece that had nothing of the sort of the content he claims to exist.

[Sir Adrian]

Fair enough but also its worth noting most long standing European Western and Eastern European states have at various time done the same there a reason most French dialects have diapered. Ukrainian culture and language have been repressed by the USSR and or Russian empire for a while its hard not expect a push for counter reaction.

Crimea was never inhabited by Ukrainians to begin with. The Soviet Union displaced the native Tatars and settled Russians in their stead (just like they displaced the native Romanians and Gagauz and settled Ukrainians in Herta and Bugeac).

Besides those things you mention happened 200 and 100 years ago. We are supposed to have progressed past that and should hold ourselves to a higher standard. I mean, if we want to behave like in the 1800s and engage in ethnic cleansing and forced assimilation, then let's just partition Poland and have France occupy Moscow again.

Keep in mind at the time when he was asked to show the law in question he could not. The reference number he gave pointed at a law piece that had nothing of the sort of the content he claims to exist.

So let's recap, you denied the law existed. I showed you that it did. Then you denied that it did what I said it did until I posted for you the entire text of the law from the Ukranian Duma's website. Now you once again deny the law existed.

I applaud you.

[PointOfViewGun]

So let's recap, you denied the law existed. I showed you that it did. Then you denied that it did what I said it did until I posted for you the entire text of the law from the Ukranian Duma's website. Now you once again deny the law existed.

I applaud you.

It took you a totality of 5 posts to actually reference the law you were speaking about. You didn't post any part of the law. I did. Your response was nowhere to be found after I pressed on you to comment on its content. You later referenced the law again with the same claims. Again, you didn't post any part of the law. Again, I pressed you on it. Again, no response was given. You can try to lie your way out of this all you want.

[Sir Adrian]

You literally linked to a reply to the post where I give you the entire text of the law you claim right now never existed, at all, in any form. I have no idea why you would continually lie about this, especially when a simple google search for Ukraine minorities law will give you not only the entire text but protests from the freaking EU and Human Rights Watch on the matter but engaging you further is just a waste of time at this point.

I do like how you exposed your own lies in the same line of text though. GG for that.

[conon394]

Crimea was never inhabited by Ukrainians to begin with. The Soviet Union displaced the native Tatars and settled Russians in their stead

Well now we can play the technicality game can't since the Crimean Khanate before it was overrun by Catherine (the supposedly) Great included a bunch of what is Ukraine so not sure are correct.

In any case the data shows it was never just minimal majority self identifying as Russian until 1939 and obviously became more skewed by the USSR action by 1946.

So the certainly we are not talking about some deep romantically mystically attached piece of Russian heritage but just Russian Imperialism and than more draconian Soviet ethnic cleansing.

Thus the facts remains the Crimea is a recognized part of the Urartian and Russia agreed to that in writing If Ukraine wants it back they are in the clear taking it. Their language seem besides the point.

[Kyriakos]

Crimea and coastal Ukraine was (for a number of reasons) one of the cultural/economic centers of the Russian Empire. Though its loss should be blamed to USSR. Why exactly did the USSR not take that bit back when dissolution was imminent? (one has to assume they just gave it to the Ukraine SSR because at the time Ukraine would be unable to break away, and the only alternative would have been a Crimean SSR).

[Cyclops]

So the Guardian recently reported a draft of a plan by the Ukrainian government (or a Ukrainian official at any rate) regarding how to handle Crimea if/when they retake it. The plan has a pretty strong between the lines implication of mass repression and/or expulsion of the Russian population.

Honestly, this kind of leads to the question of why Western governments ought to support Ukrainian reclamation of Crimea if they'd just replace repression of a minority population with repression of a majority population.

Yeah its extremely vexed and we have a history of looking the other way when our allies do it. Ethnic Russian Crimeans would be cursing the day Putin invaded if it brings about a genocide and rightly so, but that wouldn't wipe any blood off our hands or Kyiv's if some Azov ****s decide to slaughter all Russians.

Less chance of Ukraine doing it than Russia but that's cold comfort for Russian on the ground whose have lived there for 10 generations.

Keep in mind at the time when he was asked to show the law in question he could not. The reference number he gave pointed at a law piece that had nothing of the sort of the content he claims to exist.

There's heaps of outright bulldust about Ukrainians repressing the church and minorities and it keeps getting spammed. Ukraine isn't perfect and doubtless commit their own atrocities but Putin manages to make them look good and I guess Zelenskyy feels the dubious eyes of Europe upon him, so is restraining more evil urges. Is that a fair observation?

The Soviet Union used to transfer populations like they were bulldozing rubbish in a dump, zero humanity in past policies and the scars run deep.

[PointOfViewGun]

You literally linked to a reply to the post where I give you the entire text of the law you claim right now never existed, at all, in any form. I have no idea why you would continually lie about this, especially when a simple google search for Ukraine minorities law will give you not only the entire text but protests from the freaking EU and Human Rights Watch on the matter but engaging you further is just a waste of time at this point.

I do like how you exposed your own lies in the same line of text though. GG for that.

The post where I actually post the law in question going from your link? It had none of the content you suggested it did. I could link to a tomato soup recipe and claim it has a law that allows people getting shot in the head for no reason. There is no escape for you from the hole you dug here. There is a reason why you have not actually posted the text of the law here.