View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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  • I support Ukraine fully.

    103 69.59%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.14%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.70%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    11 7.43%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.73%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.41%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #8161
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    @Cyclops
    Ok, I understand, Ukraine is good so it can't possibly be responsible for any kind of escalation, only "proportionate responses". Even though what is deemed "proportionate" depends on whose side you are on. Like I said, your aversion is to the word, because you are ascribing a moral dimension to it. I don't. Anything that raises the intensity of a conflict is an escalation, it is as simple as that. Either way I'm done with this idiotic discussion over the meaning of a word. I still can't believe sth that simple is that hard to get a consensus on, imagine actually getting an agreement on anything more substantial. I mean you keep bringing up examples of what I said as if they contradict me, when I've been making the same point over and over. You ask for a definition, while responding to the very post where I provided one. And so on. I made repeated good faith attempts to communicate with you. It's not working. So yeah, moving on.
    More garbage. Escalation is a word with a meaning. Try another one, OED is your friend.

  2. #8162
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Personally, I think that Ukraine (assuming it ever is able to) trying to take back Crimea, will be escalation only for the russian public, but not in the context of the war; merely due to Crimea's demographics.
    On the other hand, if Ukraine gets long-ranged missiles, and hits far away from the front (eg near Moscow or other cities that have nothing to do with 2014 or now), that would obviously be escalation.
    ..the Ukrainians have hit airbases near Moscow, albeit with drones. There Russians didn't respond with nukes. It's a proportionate response to Putins missile attacks.

    This is simple English. Responding to an attack isn't escalation.

  3. #8163
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    More garbage. Escalation is a word with a meaning. Try another one, OED is your friend.
    Uhuh.
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Last edited by Alastor; April 01, 2023 at 07:20 AM.

  4. #8164
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Conon, the US isn't superman. It won't go against two other nuclear powers. "Doesn't afraid of anything" should stop at some point.
    I like the US, it is more than likely the best place to live in (good parts). But foreign policy-wise it is another imperialist country and has a military-industrial complex that would only stop short of getting US nuked.
    I drop after this since China is off topic. But its the not military industrial complex that would force the US to defend Taiwan it is naked self interest - the US could never allow China to take over Taiwan's chip manufacturing base.

    Edit: Nixon going to china was a blunder but he compounded by not just declaiming Taiwan independent at the time and recognizing as such when the US had the power and leverage to do so.

    -----

    @Alastor

    I still the problem is you are confusing the ebb and flow of the battles or the war for escalation or deescalation in some geopolitical sense.

    Russia has not deescalated. Russia annexation of all of the Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson even while his military's effort has indicated that he maintains his goal of reducing Ukraine to a Rump state. One expects he simply did not add Odessa and Transnistria because that would have looked a tad absurd. In the same way he did not deescalate his attach on Ukrainian infrastructure rather Russia seems to running into any being able to fire its current production and that was given Ukrainian air defense and how quickly it was to repair damage seemly not as productive as Russia hoped. But If Russia resumes a high rate of attack I don't think you call escalation nor if they lurch toward the Capital again. Ending the grain transfer deal or using a tactical nuclear weapon would. On obviously allows to end or stops a political settlement and the other lurches across line nobody wants Russia to do. I can't see Ukraine fighting in any place it as not relinquished claim to and is occupied Russia as being an escalation. Charging toward Belogorod would be.
    Last edited by conon394; April 01, 2023 at 09:58 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  5. #8165
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    But If Russia resumes a high rate of attack I don't think you call escalation nor if they lurch toward the Capital again.
    And yet I did say that a new attempt to capture Kiev would have been an escalation at this phase. Should Russia launch a new invasion from the north headed there for example. I wouldn't call it an escalation if it happened gradually while retaining the same level of intensity, so if Russia takes over Kiev in 700 years (coz that's the current pace) I wouldn't call it an escalation then. This would be consistent with the meaning of the world escalation I have been using this whole time. A meaning that, as Cyclops requested, i did ask OED to define.

    Now are we done defining words? Or is that how it's going to go until Kiev falls in 700 years?

  6. #8166
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    And yet I did say that a new attempt to capture Kiev would have been an escalation at this phase. Should Russia launch a new invasion from the north headed there for example. I wouldn't call it an escalation if it happened gradually while retaining the same level of intensity, so if Russia takes over Kiev in 700 years (coz that's the current pace) I wouldn't call it an escalation then. This would be consistent with the meaning of the world escalation I have been using this whole time. A meaning that, as Cyclops requested, i did ask OED to define.

    Now are we done defining words? Or is that how it's going to go until Kiev falls in 700 years?
    You sideling around the point I was making and that is point is Putin has made his objective clear he has annexed of 5 Oblasts of Ukraine. Violating its (Ukraine's) territorially integrity and his signed agreement not to. Thus I can't see how Ukraine fighting on defense to recover any of its Oblasts can deemed to be escalating anything.


    --------------


    In other news looks like Evan Gershkovich's last story the WSJ was not a good one about the state of the Russian Economy war time year 2...

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias...ts_pos4&page=1

    Hate the WSJ opinion page but they fund some solid reporting hope we got somebody to trade for the man. NO way in hades I travel to Russia now if not on a black or red passport.

    Oh and on the economy anyone mention the return the T52/54... Maybe Putin can convince Cuba to trade its IS-2s they might still have for some free oil.
    Last edited by conon394; April 01, 2023 at 01:36 PM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  7. #8167
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Thus I can't she Ukraine fighting on defense to recover any of its Oblasts can deemed to be escalating anything.
    For the Russian public this is a different story. Russia is the victim, obviously, the westerners and the Nazi Ukrainians conspired to destroy Russia (because they envy Russia) the Donbas is a contested area but Crimea was part of "Russia proper" since the beginning of time, this is different.
    I think the Kremlin will change its propaganda about Crimea at some point. Probably soon.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ferdiad View Post
    ...unluckly for them they cannabilised the training units and sent them to the frontlines so they can hardly train the men they're calling up now.
    Yep, this was one of the biggest mistakes they made.

  8. #8168
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Yep, this was one of the biggest mistakes they made.
    Hard to avoid you plan for fast assumed easy wars and that does not work out. Germany and the Japanese air forces sufferer this quite rapidly in WW2
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  9. #8169
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    And yet I did say that a new attempt to capture Kiev would have been an escalation at this phase. Should Russia launch a new invasion from the north headed there for example. I wouldn't call it an escalation if it happened gradually while retaining the same level of intensity, so if Russia takes over Kiev in 700 years (coz that's the current pace) I wouldn't call it an escalation then. This would be consistent with the meaning of the world escalation I have been using this whole time. A meaning that, as Cyclops requested, i did ask OED to define.

    Now are we done defining words? Or is that how it's going to go until Kiev falls in 700 years?
    You stated Crimea is off the table because "it's important to Russia" which somehow makes Ukrainian attempts to expel them an "escalation".

    Reframing events in terms of one party's emotions and presenting it as fact is garbage argumentation.

    I've offered "proportionate response" as a better alternate term. It's less emotional than "escalation" as applied here: logically your use would make any act of self defence by Ukraine an escalation. It also create a false equivalence between an invasion and rresisting an invasion, actions with clear qualitative differences.

    You've offered emotions, sarcasm and strawmanning like "Ukraine CaN dO nO wRoNg" but nothing that makes you argument stronger.

    It's a simple matter to reframe the Russian invasion in other less emotional ways that consider non Russian PoVs. As neither of us are Russian shills, this is an area of common interest for us.

    For example, Russian expulsion from Crimea would be a deescalation because Russian land theft attempts in Ukraine appear to have motivated Russias formerly neutral Baltic flank to rush into NATO. They find ongoing Russian invasions in the region an intensified threat.

    Also Russian disruption of the Black Sea grain trade would be less likely if their occupation of Crimea ceased, de-escalating the threat of widespread famine. Russian interdiction of a vital resource amounts to global blackmail, a reckless escalation of an already serious problem, and de-escalation here would benefit many vulnerable parts of the world.

    Homer Simpson style dismissal is entertaining but doesn't get your garbage argument off the hook.

    Edit: Bonus points for "700 years of war isn't an escalation, war is the new normal and ending it is an escalation". Usually a reductio ad absurdum is applied to an opponents argument, not your own.
    Last edited by Cyclops; April 01, 2023 at 01:36 PM.

  10. #8170
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    You stated Crimea is off the table because "it's important to Russia" which somehow makes Ukrainian attempts to expel them an "escalation".
    Never stated that. Never. Quote me saying it's off the table. What I said is, "an invasion of the Crimea would be an escalation", I also added it would be foolhardy to attempt it except in very specific circumstances. The status quo currently is that the Crimea is, and has been for a decade, controlled by Russia and the Crimea has enjoyed relative peace compared to other contested regions. Bringing war there would lead to an escalation of the conflict, both because it would bring war to an area so far relatively unharmed by it and because it would invite a stronger Russia response. That's what I said.

    I have also, as you advised, given the OED definition of the word that agrees with my use of it. It's not my fault you don't like the word, or that you are having an emotional response to it. Indeed what is garbage here, is all these strawmen you keep throwing my way. Now are we done with this idiocy? Or was I optimistic when I said we'll still be debating semantics 700 years from now?

  11. #8171
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Never stated that. Never. Quote me saying it's off the table. What I said is, "an invasion of the Crimea would be an escalation", I also added it would be foolhardy to attempt it except in very specific circumstances. The status quo currently is that the Crimea is, and has been for a decade, controlled by Russia and the Crimea has enjoyed relative peace compared to other contested regions. Bringing war there would lead to an escalation of the conflict, both because it would bring war to an area so far relatively unharmed by it and because it would invite a stronger Russia response. That's what I said.

    I have also, as you advised, given the OED definition of the word that agrees with my use of it. It's not my fault you don't like the word, or that you are having an emotional response to it. Indeed what is garbage here, is all these strawmen you keep throwing my way. Now are we done with this idiocy? Or was I optimistic when I said we'll still be debating semantics 700 years from now?
    "It's a fait accompli, it's done" was your exact phrase about Crimea, . From this assumption you pivot to Ukraine retaking its own land is an escalation. The word doesn't fit the case.

    The cherry on top of is "700 years of war isn't an escalation because it happens slowly". A seven century war would represent an unprecedented period of aggression., an unheard of escalation of conflict.

    Your use if the word requires a seven century war to be normal, and a counterattack to be an escalation.

    No reasonable understanding of the word can bear the use you are trying to put it to.

    It's not reasonable, it's a garbage argument.

  12. #8172
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    "It's a fait accompli, it's done" was your exact phrase about Crimea, . From this assumption you pivot to Ukraine retaking its own land is an escalation. The word doesn't fit the case.

    The cherry on top of is "700 years of war isn't an escalation because it happens slowly". A seven century war would represent an unprecedented period of aggression., an unheard of escalation of conflict.

    Your use if the word requires a seven century war to be normal, and a counterattack to be an escalation.

    No reasonable understanding of the word can bear the use you are trying to put it to.

    It's not reasonable, it's a garbage argument.
    That meant that a new status quo had emerged. Not that it was off the table. By the same rationale Putin invading Ukraine was off the table as Ukraine has been an independent state for over 30 years. Yet it happened.

    To launch/announce a war "that lasts 700 years" would be an escalation. A conflict that retains the same level of intensity for 700 years by definition would not include escalations. As an escalation is a rise in intensity. Of course this is theoretical, there is no conflict that can retain the same level of intensity for long periods of times, instead all long enough conflicts go through phases of escalation and de-escalation, phases of increased and decreased intensity. But that's besides the point.

    The word fits perfectly fine, why don't you follow your own advice and read the definition in OED? I even screenshotted it for you.

  13. #8173
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Looks Germany is going to toss in the Leopard 1s for real apparently too late for some April to May Offensive by Ukraine. And Poland more Leopard 2s in in time.

    https://kyivindependent.com/germany-...ks-to-ukraine/

    The 1s could be important to planning since it gives Ukraine more confidence that replacements are in the pipeline and better than T55/54s on the other side
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  14. #8174
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Two additions: The 18 german Leopard II + 40 Marder are already in Ukraine.

    Rheinmetall and others have the export papers to deliver up to 185 Leopard I to Ukraine.

    Will be interesting if Rheinmetall find even some more in Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark.
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  15. #8175
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Morticia Iunia Bruti View Post
    Two additions: The 18 german Leopard II + 40 Marder are already in Ukraine.

    Rheinmetall and others have the export papers to deliver up to 185 Leopard I to Ukraine.

    Will be interesting if Rheinmetall find even some more in Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark.
    Like I said that volume is good better if they dig up more it mean Ukraine has both back fill and qualitative improvement before it acts.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  16. #8176

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    The word fits perfectly fine, why don't you follow your own advice and read the definition in OED? I even screenshotted it for you.
    I think the disagreement is coming from the emotional implication of the word rather than the actual definition of the word. More like: "Where does this leave us?" or "What does this mean?"

    Ukraine, and the West for that matter, are allowed to escalate to a high degree, if not for moral reasoning, then practical. In the same way you pull a gun on a guy who pulled a knife on you; it's an escalation but that escalation is not inappropriate, correct? Ukraine actually has some leeway, in this regard, as the US has made it clear that the weapons it provides to them are not to be used on targets in Russian territory. Only, the US doesn't consider Crimea "Russian territory" so Ukraine is able to use any weapons the US provides in that are.

    Personally, I have to no fear in "escalating" with Russia. They are already doing everything they can to win this war within their political limitations. They are desperate. They aren't going to use nukes. Break them. Break the Putin state.
    They give birth astride of a grave, the light gleams an instant, then it's night once more.

  17. #8177
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    That meant that a new status quo had emerged. Not that it was off the table.
    Word chopping? Seriously by this nitpicking standard a fait accompli is not a new status quo, its a fait accompli. Incidentally fait accompli has the sense of a done deal, and let me tell you, while I agreed with that last year, this year we've had our minds changed and the even the staunchest Russia simps are getting nervous.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    By the same rationale Putin invading Ukraine was off the table as Ukraine has been an independent state for over 30 years. Yet it happened.
    Well I can't speak for your rationale, it is increasingly rubbish. It was certainly an escalation of hostility in the region for Russia to claim Crimea and illegally occupy it. Reverting control back to its legal owners can't be claimed to be an escalation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    To launch/announce a war "that lasts 700 years" would be an escalation. A conflict that retains the same level of intensity for 700 years by definition would not include escalations. As an escalation is a rise in intensity. Of course this is theoretical, there is no conflict that can retain the same level of intensity for long periods of times, instead all long enough conflicts go through phases of escalation and de-escalation, phases of increased and decreased intensity. But that's besides the point.
    I dunno, incoherence is very much the case I am bringing against your argument.

    Russia is occupying Ukraine, and escalated the prior land theft with a further attempt. Pushing back the invading forces is not an escalation, it is a proportionate response. Are you claiming Russia's calamitous retreats from Kyiv as a de-escalation? Or Ukraine reoccupying the northern approaches as an escalation? The withdrawal from the Red Forest as de-escalation? Its a bizarre misuse of the term and framed very strangely as well.

    The fact the Crimean region of Ukraine hasn't seen fighting in the current conflict doesn't mean it was de-escalated, it means the front line was further away. Russia escalated to the current invasion and now the tide of battle is nearing Crimea. This is not a Ukrainian escalation, it is Russia escalating and losing. Escalating rearwards if you like.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    The word fits perfectly fine, why don't you follow your own advice and read the definition in OED? I even screenshotted it for you.
    Google Words aint the OED. This has come up before.

    Honestly I think you're trying to say Putin will be mad if Crimea gets invaded. Is that fair?

    Framing that sentiment as "Ukraine is escalating the conflict by X" is taking an extremely Kremlin centric PoV, and not one that has yet impacted the broader conflict. The Kremlins various escalations have been disastrous so far. Ukraine's actions have been largely well thought out and well presented to sell the conflict to somewhat dubious (as they should be) allies. This may have the incidental effect of less genocide, so there's that.

    Now if you'd like to change the subject, or "escalate the thread" as you might put it, lets do so.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by The spartan View Post
    I think the disagreement is coming from the emotional implication of the word rather than the actual definition of the word. More like: "Where does this leave us?" or "What does this mean?"
    Indeed, I think the same.

    Quote Originally Posted by The spartan View Post
    Ukraine, and the West for that matter, are allowed to escalate to a high degree, if not for moral reasoning, then practical. In the same way you pull a gun on a guy who pulled a knife on you; it's an escalation but that escalation is not inappropriate, correct? Ukraine actually has some leeway, in this regard, as the US has made it clear that the weapons it provides to them are not to be used on targets in Russian territory. Only, the US doesn't consider Crimea "Russian territory" so Ukraine is able to use any weapons the US provides in that are.
    I wasn't discussing the moral angle. Just stating a fact. But yes, the example you bring is a fitting one.

    Quote Originally Posted by The spartan View Post
    Personally, I have to no fear in "escalating" with Russia. They are already doing everything they can to win this war within their political limitations. They are desperate. They aren't going to use nukes. Break them. Break the Putin state.
    At this point, my only real fear, as someone from the EU, is nukes. I don't think there is much more that this conflict can do to damage our economy that it isn't doing already and there is no path in sight to restore the damage done anyway. I'm certainly not afraid of a conventional Russian response. But then again, I never was. They won't attack NATO.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Google Words aint the OED. This has come up before.
    Oh I see, the argument has evolved from "you used the wrong meaning of the word" to "you use the wrong dictionary"... sigh. Ok, bring in the OED definition that apparently contradicts me then. Since Google Words is wrong here.

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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    The escalation argument seems to have reached a point of being totally detached form the thread.

    I don't think there is much more that this conflict can do to damage our economy that it isn't doing already and there is no path in sight to restore the damage done anyway.
    I curious as to what particularly damage you see done and that irreparable and distinctly not part of also XI's until just recently lockdown policies and more generally COVID effects.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  20. #8180
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    The escalation argument seems to have reached a point of being totally detached form the thread.
    It had reached that point 3 pages ago.
    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    I curious as to what particularly damage you see done and that irreparable and distinctly not part of also XI's until just recently lockdown policies and more generally COVID effects.
    The primary one is the loss of access to Russia's resources. The EU made bank by buying cheap natural resources and energy from Russia, using those to fuel our economy. Now that's gone. I would imagine Germany in particular will be hurt by this the most. But the EU in general won't fare much better. I had shared in the past articles discussing the tight economic dependence between Germany and Russia.

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