Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[conon394]

They were gas pipelines and of course Russia could shut them down. In fact they had already effectively done so before they got blown up. Why would Germany want to restore the original system when the whole point was to wean themselves off Russian gas? Again, you are being inconsistent.

Err no I'm not the point was Putin was betting on Winter to pressure Europe. Look the point of the Nord Stream system was to Germany addiicted to Russian gas and associated myth of being some kind of green brige fuel so sure shut down those nuclear plants etc. And also Cut Ukraine out of the delivery business hurting them and also say letting them f with eastern Europe and Ukraine w/o pissing off western Europe.

If just turning the Nord Stream back stopped being an option than Germany if got too cold could not come begging but would need the via Ukraine/Poland system to work. There for Germany would forced to actively pressure both countries to make a deal with Russia on Putin's terms.

[Laser101]

Russia and it's apologists give no credit to the Ukrainians and give all the credit to the US and NATO because they are psychologically unable to admit to themselves that the Ukrainians could beat them. Russian culture and propaganda has always depicted Ukraine as inherently inferior to Russia. At best it is the 'little brother,' at worst it flat out has no right to exist at all. They should be steamrolling such an 'inferior' opponent, but in many cases are actually losing to them. To Russia and it's apologists this is utterly incomprehensible; it completely destroys Russia's collective identity as a great power. They cannot acknowledge Ukraine's prowess because in doing so, they admit that Russia is not as great a power as they thought it was.

Well, the Ukrainians are dependent on American and EU equipment supplies.

[Alastor]

Err no I'm not the point was Putin was betting on Winter to pressure Europe. Look the point of the Nord Stream system was to Germany addiicted to Russian gas and associated myth of being some kind of green brige fuel so sure shut down those nuclear plants etc. And also Cut Ukraine out of the delivery business hurting them and also say letting them f with eastern Europe and Ukraine w/o pissing off western Europe.

If just turning the Nord Stream back stopped being an option than Germany if got too cold could not come begging but would need the via Ukraine/Poland system to work. There for Germany would forced to actively pressure both countries to make a deal with Russia on Putin's terms.

Again, Germany was already committed to weaning themselves off Russian gas. At great cost to their economy no less. There is no political avenue for backtracking currently and Germany has limited leverage over Ukraine to apply any kind of real pressure anyway. What are they going to do? Abandon Ukraine so that their virulently anti-Russian neighbours in the east can crucify them in all EU affairs? Or that their US overlords start twisting their arms further? This doesn't fit. Even in the remote possibility that a harsh winter forced Germany to beg for gas, every other avenue would be explored first. Every single one of them. No matter how expensive. LNG shipments, Turkstream, cajoling neighbours to share stored resources etc. They would transfer the gas via trucks from Azerbaijan if they had to. It would all be more politically expedient than abandoning Ukraine and we have already established that the US couldn't care less about the economic prosperity of the EU anyway. Then again not even our EU caretakers give a dime so...

Russia on the other hand, demonstrably, as you yourself just wrote, lost significant leverage with the destruction of this great asset. In fact, its destruction geostrategically enhances Ukraine's position, again like you just noted.

[Kyriakos]

Well, the Ukrainians are dependent on American and EU equipment supplies.

And if anyone saying such is an apologist for Russia, then Zelensky himself is one:

"Zelenskyy didn’t mention the names of Trump or any other Republican politicians — figures he might have to deal with if they prevailed in 2024 elections. But he did say that he worries the war could be impacted by shifting political forces in Washington.
“The United States really understands that if they stop helping us, we will not win,” he said in the interview. He sipped tea as he sat on a narrow bed in the cramped, unadorned sleeper cabin on a state railway train."

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-z...4e012db71920e5

[Alastor]

And if anyone saying such is an apologist for Russia, then Zelensky himself is one:

Admittedly, I find this humble Zelensky, who seems to understand his position and is grateful for the aid, a lot more sympathetic than the ingrate Zelensky that touts further escalations of the war while castigating the west for not helping more. I do wonder if this shift in attitude indicates new realities on the ground though.

[conon394]

Admittedly, I find this humble Zelensky, who seems to understand his position and is grateful for the aid, a lot more sympathetic than the ingrate Zelensky that touts further escalations of the war while castigating the west for not helping more. I do wonder if this shift in attitude indicates new realities on the ground though.

Not sure I see any ingratitude. I be would annoyed as well well backing you but we can't giver you tanks, oh well I guess we can... no MiG's oh wait now we can... no significant air defense oh wait I guess we can... Geez you did not the USSR and China drag their feet helping North Vietnam in the same way.

How is he " touts further escalations of the war "?

[Alastor]

Not sure I see any ingratitude. I be would annoyed as well well backing you but we can't giver you tanks, oh well I guess we can... no MiG's oh wait now we can... no significant air defense oh wait I guess we can... Geez you did not the USSR and China drag their feet helping North Vietnam in the same way.

How is he " touts further escalations of the war "?

It's really quite simple, nobody owes him any of that. At least nobody in the EU does. As I said before a case could be made for the US, but that's not my business.

Let's see, how about: "Everything started with Crimea and will end with it - liberation of the peninsula from occupation is necessary ." What do you think an invasion of the Crimea would do to this conflict? De-escalate it?

[conon394]

Let's see, how about:"Everything started with Crimea and will end with it- liberation of the peninsula from occupation is necessary ."What do you think an invasion of the Crimea would do to thisconflict? De-escalate it?

The fact of Russian occupied Crimea was Putin's escalation - I can't see how the leader of a nation saying he want's his formal recognized territory back as escalatory. After all Putin is the one who broke Russia's own formal guarantee to Ukraine to take it

[Alastor]

The fact of Russian occupied Crimea was Putin's escalation - I can't see how the leader of a nation saying he want's his formal recognized territory back as escalatory. After all Putin is the one who broke Russia's own formal guarantee to Ukraine to take it

And I guess one escalation excuses another in your book until the whole world is in ruins. Well, be that as it may, excused or not, it would still be an escalation. That's the part where I say QED.

[conon394]

And I guess one escalation excuses another in your book until the whole world is in ruins. Well, be that as it may, excused or not, it would still be an escalation. That's the part where I say QED.

Err what are you talking about how is an escalation to want your recognized boarders restored? After being invaded twice by a foreign power?

[Alastor]

Err what are you talking about how is an escalation to want your recognized boarders restored? After being invaded twice by a foreign power?

Sorry man, if you don't understand that an invasion of the Crimea would escalate this conflict you simply need a reality check, I'm afraid I can't help further.

----

An interesting debate:

[conon394]

Sorry man, if you don't understand that an invasion of the Crimea would escalate this conflict you simply need a reality check, I'm afraid I can't help further.

Nor I you since it seems you think Putin has the right to break Russia's signed agreement and recognized borders at a whim. To not demand the Crimea back is to effectively allow Russia to dismember Ukraine at any time in the future it (Russia) feels it can take some more.

[StarDreamer]

Wait what? Ukraine fighting back to regain their territory is now a escalation? Haha haha haha, talk about victim blaming.

[Alastor]

Nor I you since it seems you think Putin has the right to break Russia's signed agreement and recognized borders at a whim. To not demand the Crimea back is to effectively allow Russia to dismember Ukraine at any time in the future it (Russia) feels it can take some more.

That is a fait accompli, it's done. It has nothing to do with what Putin has the right to do, all to do with acknowledging reality. Crimea has been controlled by Russia for a decade and it is considered vital, absolutely vital, to Russia's interests. Should Ukraine invade the Crimea, that would lead to an escalation of this conflict. Again, this is simply acknowledging facts, it has nothing to do with who is right, moralisations and whatnot. As I said, if you can't understand that then I can't help, we are not communicating. That's all on this topic. Let's move to sth more productive then.

[Cyclops]

That is a fait accompli, it's done. It has nothing to do with what Putin has the right to do, all to do with acknowledging reality. Crimea has been controlled by Russia for a decade and it is considered vital, absolutely vital, to Russia's interests. Should Ukraine invade the Crimea, that would lead to an escalation of this conflict. Again, this is simply acknowledging facts, it has nothing to do with who is right, moralisations and whatnot. As I said, if you can't understand that then I can't help, we are not communicating. That's all on this topic. Let's move to sth more productive then.

Sorry that's a garbage argument, pragmatically Russia put Crimea back in play by restarting this war.

Legally and morally it was not theirs to occupy.

Russia can't hide behind "muh escalation" when they tried to occupy Kyiv day 1.

"Russia can't lose" ain't a military fact. Putin has run that card ragged. Crimea is I n the table. Putin staked it.

[Alastor]

Sorry that's a garbage argument, pragmatically Russia put Crimea back in play by restarting this war.

Legally and morally it was not theirs to occupy.

Russia can't hide behind "muh escalation" when they tried to occupy Kyiv day 1.

"Russia can't lose" ain't a military fact. Putin has run that card ragged. Crimea is I n the table. Putin staked it.

Garbage? By your thinking, Putin starting this war means that Ukraine invading Russia proper is also on the table. Ok, sure maybe it is, but you actually believe Ukraine bombing Russian cities won't lead to an escalation of this conflict? Because this was the point. I did not say Russia can't lose the Crimea, I even entertained that idea earlier in this topic, I did not say Putin will need to hide behind anything either, what does Putin care about what we, his enemies, consider just. I said very clearly and very simply "an invasion of the Crimea would lead to an escalation of this conflict." That's all I said. That is what you are disputing.

[PointOfViewGun]

It looks like we have bunch of people who have no problem with Turkey invading Western Thrace since Greece with support of EU putting up a fight against Turkish armed forces would be a pointless escalation of hostilities. Right?

[conon394]

That is a fait accompli, it's done. It has nothing to do with what Putin has the right to do, all to do with acknowledging reality. Crimea has been controlled by Russia for a decade and it is considered vital, absolutely vital, to Russia's interests. Should Ukraine invade the Crimea, that would lead to an escalation of this conflict. Again, this is simply acknowledging facts, it has nothing to do with who is right, moralisations and whatnot. As I said, if you can't understand that then I can't help, we are not communicating. That's all on this topic. Let's move to sth more productive then.

So first even were I to accept that. There is no reason for the Ukrainians to publicly accept that position while the war is on going and neither side has concluded they are prepared to give up their maximum objectives.

Second "That is a fait accompli" Is it. The second Ukraine admits that it accepts its not a real country and can be cut at Russia's leisure now or some other future day. Its a luxury to say that from the sidelines not for Ukraine.

[conon394]

It looks like we have bunch of people who have no problem with Turkey invading Western Thrace since Greece with support of EU putting up a fight against Turkish armed forces would be a pointless escalation of hostilities. Right?

I thought it was the islands that were in contention?

[PointOfViewGun]

I thought it was the islands that were in contention?

We had the same people arguing that both the Aegean islands and Western Thrace were under imminent invasion threat from Turkey and that the world should rally behind Greece to combat Turks at any cost for an invasion that didn't come in decades. Here we have some arguing how we should let Russia have his way...