Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Alastor]

Everyone knows they are human, really, really evil humans, but humans either way. Must feel good defending genocidal manians though, because you missed the point of Russians(the people itself not being evil) but their leaders are. But you rushed to defend their leaders ignoring the people, so we know you are actually trying to defend, Putin and his cronies and not the Russian people. All in the name of "neutral"(yes very neutral, just as I'm the emporor of all mankind) "non-simplistic" worldview.

I think you have proven my point more than enough already. I mean you may continue if you want, I'm just letting you know so you don't get all spent for nothing.

[fkizz]

As for Russia not getting a cent, that's ok, keep your cents, I'm sure they'd rather take the billions they are making selling their crude instead. You see, what you need to understand is that Russia can't be a pariah-state on the world stage just because the west wants it so. The west is not the world. As long as the rest of the world, including such important states as China and India are happy to be doing business with Russia, Russia will not have to worry about these cents of yours. And as long as Russia has the goods, there will be buyers. Thanks in no small part to Turkey, a NATO member, those buyers will also include the EU, for a while at least.

It's Imperium-Renaissance experiment is getting in the way of the two nations with the most commerce, US and China. Sure Russia can sell this and that and keep going for now, but long term, when provisions are scarce, it's doubtful if China will find it interesting to have its gigantic investment in Silk Road delayed even more years, that will lead to a needless rise in upkeep costs, that will reach some point where cheap gas cannot pay the difference anymore.

[Alastor]

It's Imperium-Renaissance experiment is getting in the way of the two nations with the most commerce, US and China. Sure Russia can sell this and that and keep going for now, but long term, when provisions are scarce, it's doubtful if China will find it interesting to have its gigantic investment in Silk Road delayed even more years, that will lead to a needless rise in upkeep costs, that will reach some point where cheap gas cannot pay the difference anymore.

"Long term"? "Doubtful"? "When provisions are scarce"? It's rather obvious that trying to make such predictions is not particularly useful. But your post doesn't logically follow either, or at least I don't see how it does. You are correct to say that China wouldn't want to risk their trade relations. China is overexposed to global trade, unlike Russia. Sanctions like those imposed on Russia would have crippled China. On the other hand it would have crippled all of us too. So whatever leverage you may think we hold over China, China holds over us too. It's MAD, but for the economy. If China wants to do business with Russia, we can do little to stop them, at least in the short term. In the long term, in a different world, I guess many things are possible, even the improbable, but let's discuss that then.

[fkizz]

"Long term"? "Doubtful"? "When provisions are scarce"? It's rather obvious that trying to make such predictions is not particularly useful. But your post doesn't logically follow either, or at least I don't see how it does.

PRC needs to continue to show its citizens it has the ability to raise standards of living in order to have peace at home.

You are correct to say that China wouldn't want to risk their trade relations. China is overexposed to global trade, unlike Russia. Sanctions like those imposed on Russia would have crippled China. On the other hand it would have crippled all of us too. So whatever leverage you may think we hold over China, China holds over us too. It's MAD, but for the economy. If China wants to do business with Russia, we can do little to stop them, at least in the short term. In the long term, in a different world, I guess many things are possible, even the improbable, but let's discuss that then.

In commerce affairs it's not as much (or shouldn't be, some want it to be that way, no guarantees) about win/lose scenarios as in the rest, the One Belt One Road Iniciative had land transportation to from East Asia to Western Europe, using the final transports in.. Istanbul and Ukraine.

At this point China already has released 12 points for peace as official statement, even if only media optics.

[Cyclops]

Let me help you with that. Russians are evil, Ukrainians are good. Evil people murder and rape others to death, good people liberate and snuggle them lovingly to death. Understand now?

Sigh... as long as people keep seeing the world this simplistically, we are going nowhere.

I think Russia has definitely brought the genocide side of things closer to the surface. We let the predecessor USSR ethnically cleanse Germans after WW2 because it suited the West's agenda, and again in Kosovo the Serbs got the knife. perhaps that was a result of kicking things off in the Yugoslav breakdown? They weren't Robinson Crusoe but they were the most able to realise plans for ethnic cleansing.

Russian efforts in Crimea and now in eastern Ukraine are likely trying to create demographic fait accompli for the negotiation phase. The West is negating this by massacring Russian soldiers with efficient use of surplus materiel. I think the war profiteers are outstripping the war criminals at this stage.

Maybe Ukraine wouldn't have done so much genocide as they are likely to if they now win? Thats a somewhat arcane argument, its simpler to attribute blame to who crossed what line. The US kicked in the Russians teeth diplomatically, and the Russians decided to make Ukraine pay. Is the exchange currently worth it to anyone outside the US? They are winning right now I have no doubt.

[Alastor]

Is the exchange currently worth it to anyone outside the US? They are winning right now I have no doubt.

Indeed, I remember writing sth similar a while back. The situation currently is: the US is winning, Russia is losing and Ukraine has already lost. Oh and don't even get me started on the EU and Germany in particular. But then again as Lord Ismay once said, the purpose of NATO is: to keep the Americans in, the Russians out and the Germans down. So working as designed I guess.

[StarDreamer]

Maybe Ukraine wouldn't have done so much genocide as they are likely to if they now win? Thats a somewhat arcane argument, its simpler to attribute blame to who crossed what line. The US kicked in the Russians teeth diplomatically, and the Russians decided to make Ukraine pay. Is the exchange currently worth it to anyone outside the US? They are winning right now I have no doubt.

A) It is an assumption that Ukraine would engage in genocide if they win, there is no basis for this view. It quite clearly comes from what those saying would do were they in Ukraines position.

B) Once the war started, any option but Russian losing was the absolute worst case for all of Europe, so there should be a significant effort to ensure the only truly acceptable outcome: Russian losing.

C) Sure efforts could have been made before the war started, but Russia was demanding a sphere that streched both into NATO and EU, it was quite clearly unacceptable. Anyone thinking that their imperilistic demands were in any way acceptable are out of their ing minds. If Russia wants a "buffer-zone", then a demilitarized zone inside Russia should be created so they can have their buffer-zone in their own damn country.

[Laser101]

A) It is an assumption that Ukraine would engage in genocide if they win, there is no basis for this view. It quite clearly comes from what those saying would do were they in Ukraines position.

The basis is historical precedent, for instance atrocities against Serbs in Kosovo and Krajina during the Yugoslav Wars, or the expulsion and massacre of ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland and Germany's former eastern territories at the end of WWII.

The issue in this case is how a Ukrainian national identity increasingly rooted in rejection and hatred of everything Russian (which it is hard to fault them for) reacts with a population that is dominated by ethnic Russians.

[StarDreamer]

The basis is historical precedent, for instance atrocities against Serbs in Kosovo and Krajina during the Yugoslav Wars, or the expulsion and massacre of ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland and Germany's former eastern territories at the end of WWII.

The issue in this case is how a Ukrainian national identity increasingly rooted in rejection and hatred of everything Russian (which it is hard to fault them for) reacts with a population that is dominated by ethnic Russians.

I don't think their hatred is particularly deep-rooted at the moment, nor have I seen it directed at specifically at ethnic Russians, more at those whatever their background that have acted in the favour of the Kremlin. So anyone that has worked to help the Kremlin is likely in danger if they stay. For that see the insurgent strikes at high ranking collaborators with car-bombs etc. They haven't exactly targeted random civilians.

[Coughdrop addict]

But you rushed to defend their leaders ignoring the people, so we know you are actually trying to defend, Putin and his cronies and not the Russian people.

Odd how those claiming to be for "neutrality" and "balanced world-view" always rush to defend Putin's honor huh?

Almost as if they have a personal stake in his reputation, or will be punished should they allow a criticism of Putin to go unavenged.

[Alastor]

Odd how those claiming to be for "neutrality" and "balanced world-view" always rush to defend Putin's honor huh?

Almost as if they have a personal stake in his reputation, or will be punished should they allow a criticism of Putin to go unavenged.

Yeah, that's exactly it, you got it. Nothing escapes you and your "deeply rooted" in "objective reality" viewpoints. In fact, I'm right now headed for my daily punishment session. Good stuff. Sigh...

I'll say it again, for some extra notice: the Russian agents you keep concocting exist largely in your imagination, especially here on TWC. It's just a sign of your intolerant and simplistic viewpoints. "Oh I disagree with this person not saying exactly what my social media echo chamber is parroting, so he must be KGB and evil." That's it. That's all you have. If you want to be able to have serious debates and grow as an individual, you need to learn to be more open-minded and more accepting of dissent. That's a cornerstone of the liberal and democratic concept known as the marketplace of ideas, you know, democracy right, the very thing you claim to want to defend from the evil fascist in the Kremlin. To be clear, I'm not singling you out, what I have said here also goes for others that behave like you do, not just you specifically.

Now, I'd suggest less baseless speculation on the motives and paymasters of our interlocutors, more focus on their arguments.

[Muizer]

B) Once the war started, any option but Russian losing was the absolute worst case for all of Europe, so there should be a significant effort to ensure the only truly acceptable outcome: Russian losing.

And, concretely, what does "Russia losing" look like?

[Septentrionalis]

It's just a sign of your intolerant and simplistic viewpoints. "Oh I disagree with this person not saying exactly what my social media echo chamber is parroting, so he must be KGB and evil." That's it. That's all you have. If you want to be able to have serious debates and grow as an individual, you need to learn to be more open-minded and more accepting of dissent. That's a cornerstone of the liberal and democratic concept known as the marketplace of ideas, you know, democracy right, the very thing you claim to want to defend from the evil fascist in the Kremlin. To be clear, I'm not singling you out, what I have said here also goes for others that behave like you do, not just you specifically.

I get the point you are making and have done so all the time. It just sounds ridiculous and patently immoral to support something like that and then attempt to pose as some kind balanced and responsible neutral party for not condemning an on-going crime against humanity (but championing its architects).

[StarDreamer]

And, concretely, what does "Russia losing" look like?

Doesn't matter too much what I think. Most certainly there should be no concessions of land to Russia or any sort of sphere given to Russia, otherwise we are in for a very turbulent half of a century with a resurgance of imperialist wars. Russia will have to learn that they can't dictate to other countries.

What would be right for Russia would be the "Germany treatment" after WW2, but I don't see that as realistic unless Russia decides to go crazy and escalate the war to further countries. Would help get rid of the imperialist delusions of Russia.

[Alastor]

I get the point you are making and have done so all the time. It just sounds ridiculous and patently immoral to support something like that and then attempt to pose as some kind balanced and responsible neutral party for not condemning an on-going crime against humanity (but championing its architects).

Sigh, I have condemned the war, repeatedly. Word for word I have said "I have a hard time justifying any military invasion", this one included. Likewise, I have never supported the architects of this war. Neither the ones in the Kremlin, nor the ones elsewhere. But of course, fanaticism doesn't exactly favour balanced discourse. It is too easy to see a more neutral viewpoint as supporting "the enemy", when you have turned this into a moral crusade. When I say that treating the people in the Kremlin like Gremlins is simplistic and that simple statement of fact is turned into "you are a Putin supporter who fears for your life or sth", the ball has been lost. Think about that for a moment.

[PointOfViewGun]

None of the arguments made to excuse/normalize Russian actions would be or have been used in favor of Turkey against Greece for the fraction of the severity of actions Russia has taken. Nobody falls for this empty "balanced discourse" BS some people are trying to cling to.

[Muizer]

Doesn't matter too much what I think.

Of course, same goes for all of us here presumably.

Most certainly there should be no concessions of land to Russia or any sort of sphere given to Russia, otherwise we are in for a very turbulent half of a century with a resurgance of imperialist wars. Russia will have to learn that they can't dictate to other countries.

I share the sentiment, but .....

What would be right for Russia would be the "Germany treatment" after WW2, but I don't see that as realistic unless Russia decides to go crazy and escalate the war to further countries. Would help get rid of the imperialist delusions of Russia.

...... this is pretty much what would have to happen to make it come true: escalating to an open conflict between Russia and NATO.

That's why I do not think there is a path to a resolution that will fully satisfy our shared sense of justice.

If all sides agree to not escalate to WWIII, then the resolution of the conflict will be a 'give and take' with many ingredients and many parties involved.

In this, IMHO, the mutual understanding and acceptance of security assurances (i.e. NATO membership or something very close to it) for European countries along the border of Russia and Belarus just ranks higher than preserving the territorial integrity of Ukraine at all cost.

It does not matter that those countries should have the right to decide that for themselves anyway, because this war demonstrates in the most overt way possible that Russia does not accept that they do and we have established they cannot be forced to accept it either.

To allow that 'right' to be given 'teeth', making it a geopolitical reality, would be a major concession for Russia, because it would mean to give up something they were prepared to go to war over. If they can be made to sign that in return for some land, because that's the atavistic way they appreciate value, then I'd say fine. Let them have their glass beads.


Mind you, I think I'm incredibly optimistic to propose such a scenario. But at least it's closer that reality than "We shall teach Russia a lesson once and for all".

[Coughdrop addict]

None of the arguments made to excuse/normalize Russian actions would be or have been used in favor of Turkey against Greece for the fraction of the severity of actions Russia has taken. Nobody falls for this empty "balanced discourse" BS some people are trying to cling to.

For that matter none of those arguments were made to excuse the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Were these people saying the US had every right to do whatever it felt was necessary to preserve it's security? Were they calling for a balanced discourse on US actions? Were they saying that those who opposed the war should adopt a more neutral view in which no one, not even the US, was morally wrong in those conflicts?

No, the US received nothing but abject condemnation from the same people making excuses for Russian atrocities in Ukraine, for actions over the course of twenty years many orders of magnitude lesser than what Russia has managed in one.

[Septentrionalis]

Russia will probably run out of resources before the west, especially now that China seems to have lost faith in them and is not going to support them. I don't think it is unlikely that, as Russia stagnates further, there will be an internal power struggle and an end to Putin's rule. I don't see why any glass beads are needed in that scenario. They probably won't be able to keep the fighting on when things fall apart.

EDIT: It may not even come down to Russia's ability but willingness. There are already signals that powerful people in Russia do not all think that this war was a good idea. Blaming everything on Putin and his cronies would offer a way out of the war without losing face. I am sure that the west would very much prefer that too and gladly accept the narrative that there is a new direction for Russia and those in power now are not personally responsible for Putin's crimes.

[PointOfViewGun]

Even if Ukraine gets nuked to kingdom come tomorrow Russia lost this war. They have been humbled and got exposed as an incompetent fighting force with a much smaller armed force that adopted donated arms on the fly. This will translate to reality with other nations threatened by Russia to be less intimidated.