Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Alastor]

The ICC decision to issue an arrest warrant for Putin rings rather hollow. But then again, not more so than the US welcoming it, the same US that maintains the Hague invasion act.

Some interesting context:
https://consortiumnews.com/2023/03/2...ice-over-iraq/

Finally I will ask, where is the ICC when it comes to Yemen? Seems MBS remains a VIP all over Europe, especially among circles hungry for his petrodollars. Most recently the Swiss of Credit Suisse.

With all that taken into account, how can the ICC be perceived as anything other than a political tool in the service of certain interests in the west? And if so, why does it matter if it issued an arrest warrant for anyone? It only signifies the west hates that someone and we didn't need any more reminders the west hates Putin.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

B..based Germany?

I don't know what b..based should mean, but yes Federal Minister of Justice Marco Buschmann said this.

Germany Vows To 'Arrest President Putin' If He Enters The Country, Extradite Him To The Hague (ibtimes.com)

And about Russia, Ukrane and ICC:

Though it initially signed the Rome Statute in 2000, Moscow never ratified it to become an ICC member. In 2016, under pressure due to its illegal annexation of Crimea from Ukraine and airstrikes in Syria, Russia withdrew its ICC signature.

Ukraine also has not ratified the Rome Statute. However, Kyiv has twice accepted the court's jurisdiction over alleged crimes on its territory regarding Russia's 2014 Crimea annexation and the events both leading up to it and resulting from it.
...
The ICC's Friday warrant makes Putin the third sitting president to be issued an arrest warrant after Sudan's Omar al-Bashir and Libya's Moammar Gadhafi

Both Arab autocrats were never arrested as a result of the warrant. Gadhafi was killed in a NATO-backed 2011 uprising, and Bashir was toppled in 2019 protests then tried in Sudan, nearly a decade after his ICC warrant.

Other former heads of state like Charles Taylor of Liberia, Slobodan Milosevic of the former Yugoslavia, or Radovan Karadzic of Republika Srpska faced either trial or conviction at special courts in The Hague, but not at the ICC.

The warrant means, however, that Putin would potentially avoid visiting any ICC member states, as he would risk getting arrested.


ICC issues arrest warrant for President Vladimir Putin – DW – 03/18/2023

And the only thing what matters here is that the Ukraine has devolved its iurisdiction to persecute war crimes on its territory to the ICC with its signature and ratification.

And why should Putin be immune, he's no accredited diplomat and even the immunity of head of states ends at war crimes.

There too much precedents in the past: Nürnberg trials, Saddam Hussein, Mladic, Milosevic etc...

[Septentrionalis]

And if so, why does it matter if it issued an arrest warrant for anyone? It only signifies the west hates that someone and we didn't need any more reminders the west hates Putin.

Because you either don't read what is said here or cannot understand what you read, I repeat what I just said in the previous page. It answers your question why it matters even if no one is actually arrested.

What is even more important is that Maria Lvova-Belova, the Children's Rights Commissioner, is now also under an arrest warrant for her participation in mass kidnapping of children. That will signal that anyone working for the genocidal goals of Russia can be barred from the rest of the world for the rest of their lives. Even if they have children or property abroad.

Whether or not Putin or any head of state is arrested or not, the warrant makes it impossible to safely travel for whoever else is blacklisted. For the Russian elite, travel in the west has been a pleasure and a status symbol. Many have vacation homes in the west and children studying there, because the Russian elites understand that everything is really safer and nicer in the west.

[Alastor]

Because you either don't read what is said here or cannot understand what you read, I repeat what I just said in the previous page. It answers your question why it matters even if no one is actually arrested.

And all the sanctions that the Russian elites have faced hadn't already made that clear? As I said, all that this means is the west hates Putin, plus the Russian elite I suppose, what else is new? The west has made it abundantly clear to the Russians that they should steer clear many times already.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Finally I will ask, where is the ICC when it comes to Yemen? Seems MBS remains a VIP all over Europe, especially among circles hungry for his petrodollars. Most recently the Swiss of Credit Suisse.

With all that taken into account, how can the ICC be perceived as anything other than a political tool in the service of certain interests in the west? And if so, why does it matter if it issued an arrest warrant for anyone? It only signifies the west hates that someone and we didn't need any more reminders the west hates Putin.

Is MBS saying loud and proud that he and his government are kidnapping children from foreign countries and indoctrinating them? no? huh. Odd that treating children as a spoil of war, as mere loot, should achieve a harsh response. Crazy how genocide isn't acceptable.

[Alastor]

Is MBS saying loud and proud that he and his government are kidnapping children from foreign countries and indoctrinating them? no? huh. Odd that treating children as a spoil of war, as mere loot, should achieve a harsh response. Crazy how genocide isn't acceptable.

Aside from how pathetic this dodge is, considering this is about war crimes and war crimes are being committed in Yemen...

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Aside from how pathetic this dodge is, considering this is about war crimes and war crimes are being committed in Yemen...

Putin's arrest warrant is for kidnapping children, not any other war crime. It's an act that falls under genocide, and very easy to prove as the Rashists are openly admitting to it.

[Septentrionalis]

Aside from how pathetic this dodge is, considering this is about war crimes and war crimes are being committed in Yemen...

This thread is not about Yemen. Every single Russia supporter in this thread seems to think that Russia is entitled to commit crimes because someone, somewhere has also committed them. That reveals a thoroughly primitive and immoral way of thinking.

I never do anything wrong thinking that it is okay for me to do because someone somewhere did an equally wrong thing. And I certainly don't steal children away from their parents because someone somewhere did wrong.

[Alastor]

This thread is not about Yemen. Every single Russia supporter in this thread seems to think that Russia is entitled to commit crimes because someone, somewhere has also committed them. That reveals a thoroughly primitive and immoral way of thinking.

Except that's not the argument I made. Of course I'm not a Russian supporter, so it's possible you weren't talking about me, but you did quote my post to write your strawman, so I have to wonder.

The argument I made was that the ICC is a political tool serving certain interests in the west. As such it doesn't have the standards necessary to be taken seriously, that much less so as an independent dispenser of justice. How you go from that to... Russia is entitled to commit war crimes is for you to answer.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

How you go from that to... Russia is entitled to commit war crimes is for you to answer.

Because your argument is whataboutism. You're saying ICC shouldn't try Putin for genocide because MBS did some warcrimes.

Instead we get arguments of the variety that "Putin was dumb enough not only to kidnap kids but market it as such", which seriously you need to be beyond hardcore to believe.

He literally did.

[Abdülmecid I]

A few posts deleted or edited, a couple of infractions issued and a ban or two given. Please read carefully the thread warning, especially if you are a repeat offender and you have broken the rules in this very thread in the past:

44 posts deleted and a few notes/warnings distributed. As already mentioned multiple times, no insults and personal references are allowed. Aside from accumulating infraction points, repeat offenders will also be forum-banned from the Mudpit, so tread carefully.

[Ludicus]

The argument I made was that the ICC is a political tool serving certain interests in the west.

Yes, it is, read below. (1)
---

I wrote…

Money is better spent if it is used to improve the quality of life of the citizens, not the fortunes of the war industries. In this case, Russia poses no danger to Europe.

…and the question you raise,

Really why and what part of Europe?

There is no evidence that Russia threatens to invade any European country. Nor did they raise any opposition to Finland or Swedish’s membership in NATO, Putin explains how Finland, Sweden membership in NATO

If you are referring to my country, it is worth remembering that the only time an invasion of Portugal was seriously considered in the last hundred years was after the democratic revolution of April 1974: a threat almost undertaken by the USA, who owns NATO, of which Portugal was/is also a member. Enjoy the irony.

In my opinion, we must place the interests of this country above the dictates and interests of Brussels and NATO, not accepting the use of sanctions whose "boomerang" effect is destroying the country and the lives of the people, as they prevent access to important raw materials and energy markets, since this is the only way to reduce prices for consumers; refuse to be linked to any of the parties in the confrontation-for world hegemony or for a multipolar world; in international trade, the country must have an independent policy that allows it to access the most favorable markets for its development and for the improvement of the living conditions of the populations. Internally, the country must promote various measures to develop the country, but it has no interest in mentioning them in this forum.
---
(1)
In Paris, Israel’s Smotrich says Palestinian people don’t exist. It’s worth noting that the President of the ICC is Polish. I assume that the ICC, the EU and the US are so busy trying to arrest Putin that they must not have time to consider the Palestinian Authority's request.
PA calls for ICC to arrest Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich

We are following with utmost interest the irresponsible and inflammatory statements made by the hateful and racist terrorist minister, stemming from hatred, terrorism and the claim of racial superiority of the Jewish people at the expense of the rest of the world's nations, particularly the Palestinian people," said the PA ministry of foreign affairs. "We will ask the International Criminal Court to move immediately to issue an arrest warrant against this racist terrorist."
The ministry condemned France for allowing Smotrich to enter the country and be in a position to make "fascist" statements. "We will ask the French authorities to ensure that any activity that takes place on French territory does not violate international law and does not call for the establishment of Greater Israel at the expense of international and laws and conventions."
The PA also called on the EU to take a unified stand to prevent Smotrich from entering any EU member state.

--
Asked about Smotrich's comments on Monday in the French territory, State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Petal said Washington takes issue with such language. "We of course would take issue with that kind of description or that kind of language being used," Petal said. The EU said it "firmly deplores yet another unacceptable comment by Minister Smotrich."

Both the US and the EU are not really upset - these are mere statements of convenience, "pour épater le bourgeois". They won't be talking about this annoying subject again any time soon.

Thinking about it, it's a funny story the new/last version the Biden administration has released about who was responsible for the sabotage of the Nord Stream I/ II gas pipelines. It was allegedly a group of six Ukrainian adventurers and patriots who, unbeknownst to Kiev authorities, boarded a simple sailing boat and then dived to a depth of 100 meters to place the explosives in the pipelines in four different places, and then set sail for the Baltic. The commission that has been supposed to be investigating the case for months - and from which Russia, co-owner of the pipelines, has of course been excluded - has remained silent about this revelation.
And the poor Scholz/Germany, the other co-owner, and who in December 2021 heard from Biden that Nord Stream II would never be put into operation, decided to accept this version: he earlier declared that the sabotage could only have been the work of a state with the means to do so. In international law and in Western political and media circles, what happened with the gas pipelines is called terrorism.

But in this day and age, and according to the new rules, it seems to depend on who does it and to whom. The worst generation of European politicians in the last 100 years cannot see what is before their eyes, and while they delight in grandiloquent statements, they watch the systematic destruction of Ukraine and drag us all into the abyss. The difference between Putin and them is that Putin is dangerous because he is crazy and smart, and they are dangerous because they are all sane and idiots.

There are still those who hold the myth that wars are conducted between villains and saints, Lives torn apart by British airstrikes in Mosul give lie to UK's ‘perfect’ precision war
Multiple civilian deaths linked to 2016-17 British airstrikes

Did the ICC ever deal with the war crimes of Bush, Cheney, Kissinger or Blair, just to name a few....is it true or false that US threatens to arrest ICC judges if they pursue Americans,Israel or other US allies ?

[StarDreamer]

Well seems Muscovy started to dig out their T-54/T-55 tanks out of storage. Scraping the bottom of the barrel of tanks. Was this the last of their stored tank generations or did they still have some WW2 era ones?

[Coughdrop addict]

Well seems Muscovy started to dig out their T-54/T-55 tanks out of storage. Scraping the bottom of the barrel of tanks. Was this the last of their stored tank generations or did they still have some WW2 era ones?

I agree. Kinda hard to believe Russian pretension of "greatness" when they use ancient Soviet weaponry, beg North Korea for shells and Iran for drones huh?

Putin's "greatest country in the world" also lacks indoor plumbing outside the major metropolitan areas. Their major exports consists only of fossil fuels and war crimes. Russia’s contributions to world culture ended with WWI, now they only produce propaganda that Goebbels would laugh at. Besides warmongering, Russia's main claim to fame is the ubiquitous Russian Mafia, the scourge of the world.

[Cyclops]

Well seems Muscovy started to dig out their T-54/T-55 tanks out of storage. Scraping the bottom of the barrel of tanks. Was this the last of their stored tank generations or did they still have some WW2 era ones?

Surely these amount to theatrical props?

Sending men to war in antique vehicles is a gesture meant for domestic consumption, not a serious military decision.

Putin continues to astonish us with the magnitude of his weakness.

[Kyriakos]

Russia is using ammunition/weapons for over a year now. Is it very likely that many other countries wouldn't have at least as many shortages in the same case?
Ukraine is being fed ammunition/weapons, which of course means that the moment that stops, it is over.

[Cyclops]

Russia is using ammunition/weapons for over a year now. Is it very likely that many other countries wouldn't have at least as many shortages in the same case?
Ukraine is being fed ammunition/weapons, which of course means that the moment that stops, it is over.

Old chap Ukraine is being fed a mix of 21st century and late 20th century munitions, Russia is allegedly trotting out weapons from the first half of the 20th century.

In a geopolitical sense it's already over.

[Kyriakos]

Point being that almost (maybe not even the "almost" is needed) every other country would be in Russia's position, after having to use its own ammunition/weapons for a full year. Only way around that would be if they went to "great patriotic war" mode and had their industry just produce for war.
A bigger issue, though, is that if Russia has to go to that mode, they will. Gambling that they instead will give up, is a fantasy - much like they didn't give up due to sanctions.

[Coughdrop addict]

Only way around that would be if they went to "great patriotic war" mode and had their industry just produce for war.
A bigger issue, though, is that if Russia has to go to that mode, they will.

They can't. Russia has been cut off from nearly all sources of materials needed to build modern munitions, specifically microchips. Hence why Putin is on his knees before North Korea and Iran begging for munitions while accepting Russia becoming a Chinese vassal state in the hope Xi will do the same.

[Cyclops]

Point being that almost (maybe not even the "almost" is needed) every other country would be in Russia's position, after having to use its own ammunition/weapons for a full year. Only way around that would be if they went to "great patriotic war" mode and had their industry just produce for war.
A bigger issue, though, is that if Russia has to go to that mode, they will. Gambling that they instead will give up, is a fantasy - much like they didn't give up due to sanctions.

I don't see the point. "If the US invaded Ukraine without the manpower or tech to win" their last two pirate raids were militarily concluded in a few weeks, and even in Iraq they scrounged up 3 or 4 allies.

Russia is not equipped to win this war (let alone any subsequent occupation), hence the theatrically of using tanks that are too old for service except in E tier client states. It's for show, it's a phony war right now, and Ukrainian suffering is for Russian domestic consumption.

If Russia keeps going on this trajectory (-50 years tech per calendar year fougt) they will be using smoothbore 12 pdrs in 2 more years. Russia cannot win this, it needs the US to win this.

If the conflict "freezes" well SK has had some success as a frozen-war semistate. Apparently some people prefer that to Russian rule.