Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Septentrionalis]

The loss to Ukraine is already too expensive, according to Zelensky himself, but he maintains they have to keep trying to defend there. You act as if it's the middle of nowhere or just another town which can be left and nothing changes - but if that was so, the people in Ukraine wouldn't just agree to keep dying to defend it "for political reasons".

Russia supporter is butthurt because Ukrainians want to defend themselves. Comedy gold.

[Kyriakos]

Septen, this is a disappointing post, no two ways about it.
But so is your post
Hopefully you'll get the message.

[Ludicus]

Really Ludicus too bad...France or Germany is not stepping to be in the forefront of liberal European defense spending

Money is better spent if it is used to improve the quality of life of the citizens, not the fortunes of the war industries.In this case, Russia poses no danger to Europe. Many Germans (found authoritarian and illiberal) Poland's sympathy for the US, which was evident throughout the last 30 years, difficult to accept. Ask them. Although it was not the case under Obama. But it is much more than that,mark you well my words, Poland, like Ukraine, is eager to drag us into a world war.This is obvious to any observer.

EDIT:

Portugal..

Portugal… Portugal…what can I say? enjoy,
The mutiny on the Bounty.Four sergeants and nine privates disobeyed orders.Portuguese Navy charges sailors refusing to observe Russian

...a Russian warship scientific vessel.

The navy is falling apart, but they send tanks to Ukraine…
Portugal is 2nd European country most feeling economic consequences of war in Ukraine.

According to Expresso, almost 50% of people in Portugal think maintaining standards of living should take precedence over the defence of democracy and freedom. “National preoccupations are even more clear when people were asked what the priorities of the European Parliament should be”, says Expresso.

“For the Portuguese, the absolute priority should be the fight against poverty (66% of nationals gave this answer, as opposed to only 37% in the rest of Europe), followed by defence of (State-subsidised) public health (53% against a 35% average elsewhere) and financial support for the creation of employment (52% as opposed to 30% in other countries)”.

But it’s worth to note that,

“Another interesting aspect”, says Expresso, “is that the percentage of Portuguese who have a positive opinion of Russia is 2% – much less than the European average of 10%”.

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A voice in the desert.
Mainer going viral for passionate speech against Ukraine resolution.

A Maine state senator’s statehouse remarks on Friday about the Ukraine war have made a big noise outside the Pine Tree State, particularly on Twitter. Eric Brakey, a self-described libertarian Republican, took advantage of a vote on a joint resolution, “Expressing Support for the People of Ukraine on the One-Year Anniversary of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” to criticize the current Biden policy in Washington as eschewing diplomacy to prolong the war, which he said is ultimately the worst thing to happen for the people of Ukraine, and the world.
So it is not for the sake of any despot that I oppose this resolution, but for love of our country and the wisdom of early leaders, like George Washington and John Quincy Adams, who warned our country against entangling alliances, being drawn into European power struggles, and going abroad in search of monsters to destroy.

And for the love of all people caught up in this war — for the conscripted and enslaved men of Ukraine and Russia pitted against each other to the death for the benefit of oligarchs; for the many dead and displaced civilians; for those starving across the world from the consequences of war in the Ukrainian breadbasket; for those in Europe, America, and Maine freezing this winter due to natural gas shortages; and for everyone alive today and generations yet unborn who face the very real threat of nuclear annihilation — we must demand immediate diplomacy to end to this war.

For the sake of America, Ukraine, Russia, and the world — we need immediate diplomacy, not reckless commitments to prolong the war in Ukraine forever. That's why, in the Maine Senate today, I called out the propaganda of the corporate media and the Washington war machine.

Sen.Brakey on twitter, “if we want Russian troops out of Ukraine, we must set the example by pulling U.S. troops out of Syria”

The author (Kelley Beaucar Vlahos) goes on to say,

Brakey’s insistence that the Russian invasion wasn’t “unprovoked” …but instead brought on in part by NATO-expansionist policy since the fall of the Iron Curtain, is sure to rankle, as it is out of step with the status quo messaging of the mainstream.
(…) for the first time since the war began, less than 50 percent of Americans said they are in favor of sending more weapons to Kyiv. “There are a few people who have insisted on name calling and pushing the party line on this issue and that’s expected,” he said. “But the bulk of this response has been positive.”

[EmperorBatman999]

--
A voice in the desert.
Mainer going viral for passionate speech against Ukraine resolution.

Sen.Brakey on twitter, “if we want Russian troops out of Ukraine, we must set the example by pulling U.S. troops out of Syria”

The author (Kelley Beaucar Vlahos) goes on to say,

Ok, and? Maine is quite a small state and doesn't have much political power, being mostly rural and sparsely populated. I don't see how this is representative of any sort of attitude in the realm of larger US politics.

[Cyclops]

Ok, and? Maine is quite a small state and doesn't have much political power, being mostly rural and sparsely populated. I don't see how this is representative of any sort of attitude in the realm of larger US politics.

As you say Braker represents a minority view in US politics, not sure how he'd go under Putin, or how him nor falling out of a window justifies Putins brigandage.

Maybe a normal function of politics looks like fatal weakness to the Kremlin?

I guess this is part of why Ukraine prefers US overlordship to Russia.

[conon394]

Money is better spent if it is used to improve the quality of life of the citizens, not the fortunes of the war industries.In this case, Russia poses no danger to Europe.

Really why and what part of Europe?

Many Germans (found authoritarian and illiberal) Poland's sympathy for the US, which was evident throughout the last 30 years, difficult to accept. Ask them. Although it was not the case under Obama. But it ismuch more than that, mark you well my words, Poland, like Ukraine, is eager to drag us into a world war. This is obvious to any observer.

And yet its Russia that started the war now and and in 2014 and has resorted to nuclear saber rattling, and infringes on the sovereignty of Moldovia and Georgia... Sorry L I can see only one country dragging us toward WW3

Sen.Brakey on twitter, “ifwe want Russian troops out of Ukraine, we must set the example bypulling U.S. troops out of Syria”

And the Russians ones as well and Turkish? And I'm sure the Kurds (really should have joined NATO or something if you wanted to be not on the crap end of the world) will find that a happy day and hey Assad will certainly deal with ISIS.

"For the sake of America, Ukraine,Russia, and the world — we need immediate diplomacy,"

On what basis Ludicus what do you propose you keep saying diplomacy is like a f-ing green lantern ring but tell me what you want offered up to appease Putin?

The navy is falling apart, but they send tanks to Ukraine…
Portugal is 2nd European country most feeling economic consequences of war in Ukraine.

Systemically spend very nearly nothing on your military and that happens.

[Kyriakos]

Ukraine didn't join nato either, and it's not like the US invited the Kurds in and they said no.

[Vanoi]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-si...145242546.html

Russian ethnic cleansing in Ukraine continues.

[Ludicus]

Will Putin actually be arrested, or will Putin arrest the ICC judges? a while ago, US threatens to arrest ICC judges if they pursue Americans for for Afghan war crimes.

If the court comes after us, Israel or other US allies, we will not sit quietly.

If it were only Afghanistan (but it’s not) …looking back 20 years after US invaded Iraq. A requiem for a lost Iraq

(…) Americans should be under no illusions that the war was a mere policy blunder, as Eamon Kircher-Allen wrote in a recent roundtable for the Century Foundation. (*)
“[W]hile Americans seem to mostly understand the Iraq War did not serve the national interest, it’s much less clear whether they grasp how the war was morally and legally wrong—in other words, that it was a crime.”

Do as I say, not as I do, (*)

…As others in this roundtable point out, the United States has never taken responsibility by acknowledging or apologizing for the devastation in Iraq.
The lack of accountability for the Iraq War now hampers efforts to hold Russian president Vladimir Putin accountable.
International law scholar Philippe Sands, who has called for an international tribunal to try Putin for the crime of aggression, has observed: “The big elephant in the room in Ukraine is Iraq, which was also a manifestly illegal war and produced a very different response in Britain and in the United States.” When I gave a lecture to students on the evolution of the postwar rules-based order and why it exists, a young student from a large, important non-Western country raised his hand: “But hasn’t it always been a farce, just an excuse for the powerful countries to do what they want?” We all knew what he meant.

Costs of War project at Brown University.
--
Thinking about it, I’m afraid that the EU as a sovereign entity with some autonomy in the world ended when a US Navy Diving and Rescue Center unit placed C4 explosives next to the German gas pipeline in Swedish territorial waters. The EU is on the same seabed and in the same conditions as Nord Stream 2.

--
Edit.

Systemically spend very nearly nothing on your military and that happens.

Indeed. Well, someone said in a joking manner that if the Portuguese ships had always sailed safely, Brazil would not have been discovered yet.
But you see, frankly, we have other priorities. Even France, a rich country, is in turmoil. Paris is “burning”.

https://youtu.be/E5U6A2zuWyI

Hundreds detained in fiery protests after French government

“

If we don’t do [the reforms] today, it’s much more brutal measures that we will have to do in future,”

...Says the protector of the French financial elite. With people living longer, the only alternatives would be to cut the value of pensions, or increase contributions from those in work. Those are the only reforms they are interested in undertaking, as long as they do not touch their own interests.
It was a long time ago that a German Emperor wrote, in a letter to the German Parliament “those who are disabled from work by age and invalidity have a well-grounded claim to care from the state." One of these days we will return to 1880, to the great joy of the very rich. Billionaire fortunes are increasing by $2.7 billion a day, even as at least 1.7 billion workers now live in countries where inflation is outstripping wages.
“Survival of the Richest

The very richest have become dramatically richer and corporate profits have hit record highs, driving an explosion of inequality.

Portugal Teachers Protest Over Inflation, Job Discontent

"I feel robbed every day of my life"

Protest: Doctors on strike

Doctors are protesting against what they called “the government’s progressive dismantling of the health service.”

Portugal protesters march in anti-poverty demonstrations
---
---
The disconnect between the increasing misery caused by the impact of the war in Ukraine and what economists say, Portuguese economy sees highest growth in 35 years with 6.7 in 2022

...its best performance since 1987.

Really. I believe that the wealth of the rich has been growing steadily. That’s what I believe. Who said that the accumulation of capital establishes an accumulation of misery, corresponding with accumulation of capital?
Portugal is the new hotspot for millionaires & wealthy people
Where Are The World's Rich? Portugal is in the top 10

It’s the law of attraction, like flies are attracted to garbage, particularly if there are many golf courses and good beaches.
This is the best performance since 1987, dear economists.

[Laser101]

Will Putin actually be arrested, or will Putin arrest the ICC judges? a while ago, US threatens to arrest ICC judges if they pursue Americans for for Afghan war crimes.

Stalin once asked 'how many divisions has the Pope got?' I kind of get the impression this is a similar problem. Actually, it's even worse, since there is at least a substantial number of people who care what the Pope says.

From a different angle, this doesn't really seem to make sense from a strictly legalistic perspective; considering that Russia is not a signatory to the ICC treaty, on what grounds can they claim that Putin or any other Russian ought to be subject to its laws?

[PointOfViewGun]

Will Putin actually be arrested, or will Putin arrest the ICC judges? a while ago, US threatens to arrest ICC judges if they pursue Americans for for Afghan war crimes.

Every one be careful. Above is a deceptive click bait link. Ludicus is relying on opinion statements of a Trump era advisor to further his whataboutism.

[conon394]

Thinking about it, I’m afraid that the EU as a sovereign entity with some autonomy in the world ended when a US Navy Diving and Rescue Center unit placed C4 explosives next to the German gas pipeline in Swedish territorial waters. The EU is on the same seabed and in the same conditions as Nord Stream 2.

You don't need to think to hard about a Hersh fantasy.


------------

Even France, a rich country, is in turmoil. Paris is “burning”.

Over what seems like a practical and minor policy shift. How does this tie into the damage cause the war in Ukraine?

[Septentrionalis]

You don't need to think to hard about a Hersh fantasy.

Do not make the mistake of thinking that problems with Hersh's story or credibility do anything to discredit the possibility that US destroyed those pipes as they twice said they would do.

The majority of cui bono points still point towards US involvement and destroying those pipes worked perfectly in bringing Germany in line with supporting Ukraine and ending the Russian chokehold on Germany that has been a thorn in the sides of both US and EU for a long time.

[sumskilz]

From a different angle, this doesn't really seem to make sense from a strictly legalistic perspective; considering that Russia is not a signatory to the ICC treaty, on what grounds can they claim that Putin or any other Russian ought to be subject to its laws?

They have jurisdiction because Ukraine accepted jurisdiction and the crimes are alleged to have occurred in Ukraine. Theoretically, Putin could be arrested if he enters a signatory state, but I doubt that’s going to happen.

[conon394]

Do not make the mistake of thinking that problems with Hersh's story or credibility do anything to discredit the possibility that US destroyed those pipes as they twice said they would do.

The majority of cui bono points still point towards US involvement and destroying those pipes worked perfectly in bringing Germany in line with supporting Ukraine and ending the Russian chokehold on Germany that has been a thorn in the sides of both US and EU for a long time.

Yet Germany had taken those steps already. And yes I do not preclude the possibility but I will wait for a more realistic version rather than from a man who has now multiple occasions decided to spin fiction over reporting. Personally I think the Gazprom did more or less to avoid legal results from slow and stopping deliveries is as probable.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Do not make the mistake of thinking that problems with Hersh's story or credibility do anything to discredit the possibility that US destroyed those pipes as they twice said they would do.

The majority of cui bono points still point towards US involvement and destroying those pipes worked perfectly in bringing Germany in line with supporting Ukraine and ending the Russian chokehold on Germany that has been a thorn in the sides of both US and EU for a long time.

Which is nothing more than antigerman propaganda:

Nord Stream 2 was already stopped on 22 February 2022, two days before the invasion started.

Germany halts Nord Stream 2 approval over Russian recognition of Ukraine ‘republics’ | Germany | The Guardian
​
Additionally Russia had already completely stopped the delivery of natural gas via Nord Stram 1 to Germany on 2. September 2022 because the G 7, Germany is a permanent member of G 7, imposed an price cap on Russian Oil.

Nord Stream 1: Gazprom announces indefinite shutdown of pipeline | Gazprom | The Guardian

7 (+3 later) german Panzerhaubitze 2000 were already delivered in June 2022 to the Ukrainian Forces.

Ukrainian military assessed the true worth of the German PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer - Militarnyi

So Germany was already fully onboard in the pro ukrainian coalition as both pipelines were sabotaged on 26 September 2022.

At that point they had already lost their blackmailing potential.

And if it was the US Special Forces why is one pipe of Nord Stream 2 still intact?

Meanwhile in the real world:

Finland races to Nato first and is leaving Sweden back.

Finland Leaves Sweden Behind in Race to NATO Membership (msn.com)

Remember:

Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said on Friday Turkey's president had told her he had more questions for Sweden than for her country. But she said she would not leave Sweden behind in the process.

Finland, Sweden promise to join NATO together in united front to Turkey | Reuters

[StarDreamer]

Which is nothing more than antigerman propaganda:

Nord Stream 2 was already stopped on 22 February 2022, two days before the invasion started.

Germany halts Nord Stream 2 approval over Russian recognition of Ukraine ‘republics’ | Germany | The Guardian
​
Additionally Russia had already completely stopped the delivery of natural gas via Nord Stram 1 to Germany on 2. September 2022 because the G 7, Germany is a permanent member of G 7, imposed an price cap on Russian Oil.

Nord Stream 1: Gazprom announces indefinite shutdown of pipeline | Gazprom | The Guardian

7 (+3 later) german Panzerhaubitze 2000 were already delivered in June 2022 to the Ukrainian Forces.

Ukrainian military assessed the true worth of the German PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer - Militarnyi

So Germany was already fully onboard in the pro ukrainian coalition as both pipelines were sabotaged on 26 September 2022.

At that point they had already lost their blackmailing potential.

And if it was the US Special Forces why is one pipe of Nord Stream 2 still intact?

Meanwhile in the real world:

Finland races to Nato first and is leaving Sweden back.

Finland Leaves Sweden Behind in Race to NATO Membership (msn.com)

Remember:

Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said on Friday Turkey's president had told her he had more questions for Sweden than for her country. But she said she would not leave Sweden behind in the process.

Finland, Sweden promise to join NATO together in united front to Turkey | Reuters

I agree on that if it was the US then there would be no intact pipeline.

On the NATO thing, Finland would prefer if Sweden joined at the same time, but we can't force those 2 holdouts to give in. And what exactly is the point of intentionally staying out if we have been fully ratified? While the applications were done at the same time, they were 2 seperate applications. Seems to me that Finland can do more for Sweden in NATO than outside.

[Septentrionalis]

I agree on that if it was the US then there would be no intact pipeline.

I don't know much about underwater detonations but I can easily imagine that especially an explosion delayed by weeks or months has many things that can go wrong. I don't share the belief that the US military is incapable of achieving only partial success. Besides, that sort of prejudice makes us completely gullible. Let's blow only three of the four and they will never believe we did it.

I expect much more evidence than that before I believe that Russia blew up their own geopolitical energy weapon.

It is useful to read up on just how much the US (and some EU countries) hated those pipes. I thought that only two top US politicians had promised to to take them down, but here's a third one from 2021.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60151839

Ukraine crisis: Nord Stream 2 pipeline could be axed, US warns

"I want to be very clear: if Russia invades Ukraine one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward," US state department spokesman Ned Price told NPR.

But he added that he was "not going to get into the specifics" of how it would be stopped, and questions remain over whether the US would have the power to cancel the project.

Despite massive American pressure, including threatened sanctions against European companies involved in the project, Berlin refused to back down. Some accused Washington of meddling in Germany's independent energy policy.

That changed last week, when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was asked whether Nord Stream 2 would be used to respond to Russian aggression. "Everything is up for discussion if there is a military intervention against Ukraine," he said.

I find it plausible that Germany was told about the fate of the pipes too. Certainly Scholtz's behavior in the press conference when Biden said they would take it down would fit that scenario. The German journalist was shocked at such a threat but Scholtz said something very different.

[Laser101]

They have jurisdiction because Ukraine accepted jurisdiction and the crimes are alleged to have occurred in Ukraine. Theoretically, Putin could be arrested if he enters a signatory state, but I doubt that’s going to happen.

If the signatory state in question even cares to begin with. The question becomes whether or not they consider the ICC to be nothing more than a 'Western'-controlled kangaroo court (which it would be hard to fault them for to be honest).

[Kyriakos]

Ukraine accepting jurisdiction is a pretext; would Iraq/Afganistan (or Serbia, if it has to be only for European countries) accepting such lead to the court having proceedings for war-crimes by (eg) the US?
It's not an international court if it's just to be used as a vassal of US; it decreases its status, which already was low due to how it handled the Yugoslav wars.