Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Kyriakos]

Any (as objective as possible...) information on daily casualties (and ratio) for Bakhmut?
It appears to be a massive meatgrinder.

[Mithradates]

Well you have low flying hours and you get guys who make mistakes - best case. Worst is really dumb orders for trying to knock it down.

I believe they have been doing these "humiliation showers" for a while now but this is the first time they damaged the drone, the important part is they clearly now that the drone records everything and the US will now what happened yet they still lie about it.
This reminds me of those people who urge that the US should negotiate with Russia, with that Russia which openly lies to the US about obvious things.
Everything the Kremlin says cannot be trusted, their words, their promises mean nothing, any negotiation is pointless with them.

Any (as objective as possible...) information on daily casualties (and ratio) for Bakhmut?
It appears to be a massive meatgrinder.

"U.S. Army general Mark Milley, the chairmain of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, claimed the Russians lost “closer to 1,200” killed around Bakhmut in a single day in mid-February. “That’s Iwo Jima, that’s Shiloh,” Milley said, referring to some of the bloodiest battles in American history."

[Kyriakos]

Isn't that roughly the daily killed for Ukraine too? Or to put it differently: if 1000/day isn't sustainable for Russia, why would it be for Ukraine?
Even one month ago, the life expectancy in the front was "4 hours": https://abcnews.go.com/International...ry?id=97324824

[Septentrionalis]

Isn't that roughly the daily killed for Ukraine too? Or to put it differently: if 1000/day isn't sustainable for Russia, why would it be for Ukraine?

Yes. Even though the war effort isn't going quite as planned, unsustainable losses for Ukraine means that eventually your godless mob of warmongers will make an Orthodox nation into a thing of the past. So it is good to keep up cheerful spirits and concentrate on the positive.

[Papay]

MilitaryLand.net on Twitter: "🗞️Lt. Col. Anatolii "Kupol" Kozel, a skilled commander of a battalion of 46th Airmobile Brigade was demoted to deputy commander of training center after an interview with Washington Post. Kupol wrote a resignation letter in response. #UkraineRussiaWar https://t.co/7AOtEl8C7e" / Twitter

So the Ukrainian commander of 46th brigade gave an interview on Washington post complaining about the huge casualties they are taking and then he was forced to resign. I guess you must talk only of the Russian casualties in order to be promoted

[Kyriakos]

Tbf, I doubt many people care about Ukraine being orthodox.

[Mithradates]

Isn't that roughly the daily killed for Ukraine too? Or to put it differently: if 1000/day isn't sustainable for Russia, why would it be for Ukraine?
Even one month ago, the life expectancy in the front was "4 hours": https://abcnews.go.com/International...ry?id=97324824

Its not the same, not even close. Ukraine is defending and Russia is assaulting constantly even with high attrition rates because Putin ordered them to take the Donbas by the end of March.

"The casualty ratio was estimated to be 5 Russian soldiers killed for every Ukrainian solider according to NATO. Ukraine claims the ratio is 7 to 1 killed in favour of Ukrainian soldiers. There are reports of the ratio changing in favour of the Russian forces since then.[114]

On 13 March Russia claimed it had killed 220 Ukrainian soldiers in the last 24 hours, whereas Zelensky said 1100 Russians had been killed in the last few days"

(Also Im glad that soldier managed to evacuate before his 4 hours timer was up, makes me wonder why Russia couldnt capture the town yet. )

Those Russians who die at Bakhmut are not Wagner convicts anymore, they are actual mercenaries (Russian ex-soldiers) while the Ukrainians mainly use territorial defence units to preserve their best troops for the late-spring offensive.

MilitaryLand.net on Twitter: "🗞️Lt. Col. Anatolii "Kupol" Kozel, a skilled commander of a battalion of 46th Airmobile Brigade was demoted to deputy commander of training center after an interview with Washington Post. Kupol wrote a resignation letter in response. #UkraineRussiaWar https://t.co/7AOtEl8C7e" / Twitter

So the Ukrainian commander of 46th brigade gave an interview on Washington post complaining about the huge casualties they are taking and then he was forced to resign. I guess you must talk only of the Russian casualties in order to be promoted

He was not authorized to speak publicly.
Ukraine's Air Assault Forces say commander "overstated" Ukraine's losses in Washington Post interview

"An internal investigation was conducted into the dissemination of false information in an interview by an Air Assault Forces officer.

It was established that the serviceman had violated a number of guidelines on public communication and the disclosure of information constituting a state secret.

In accordance with the standards of NATO armies, which have been implemented in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, permission for a serviceman to communicate with the media must be granted by their commanding officer, which did not happen."

"The irony being that he complained about lack of training yet when offered a training post he refused and resigned."


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The Russians had so nothing to do with the downing of the American drone that they awarded the two pilots for it:

MOSCOW, March 17. /TASS/. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu presented for awarding the pilots of Su-27 aircraft, which prevented the violation of the borders of the special operation area by the American MQ-9 drone, the Russian Defense Ministry told reporters on Friday.

[Kyriakos]

Its not the same, not even close. Ukraine is defending and Russia is assaulting constantly even with high attrition rates because Putin ordered them to take the Donbas by the end of March.

We do need some reliable source that says it's "not even close", though. Otherwise it's wishful thinking, particularly in light of the abc article about people dying in the front on average in their first 4 hours there.
Russia anyway has far more people than Ukraine.

[StarDreamer]

We do need some reliable source that says it's "not even close", though. Otherwise it's wishful thinking, particularly in light of the abc article about people dying in the front on average in their first 4 hours there.
Russia anyway has far more people than Ukraine.

You are making assumptions based on no information. Usually defenders in an even fight take less losses, but that is all we have as info.

[Ludicus]

Diplomacy Watch: Laying the groundwork for a peace deal

Kyiv and Moscow still seem determined to fight, but that shouldn’t stop the West from planning for a way to end the war… argues former U.S. diplomat Tom Pickering in a recent essay published in Foreign Affairs.
(…) Pickering, who served for more than four decades as diplomat, including as Ambassador to Russia in the mid-1990s. “But at some point, the time will come for negotiations, and it is essential that the United States plans carefully for that day.” “Failure to do so will condemn Washington to a hurried and poorly thought-through approach to ending the war — a mistake the United States has made in every serious conflict it has become embroiled in since 1945. No war ends without political consequences. Either the United States engages to shape those consequences to serve its interests, or others will shape the consequences in its stead.”

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The critical raw materials you need to know - POLITICO

China currently provides nearly 99 percent of the EU’s supply of these minerals, as well as about 98 percent of its rare earth permanent magnets.

Charles Michel, President of the European Council, was taken by surprise by an agreement on crucial raw materials between Von der Leyen and Biden, announced after a meeting at the White House. Von der Leyen e Michel desencontrados

The most powerful institution in the EU (Von Der Leyen) unveils Critical Raw Materials Act

But...but....several European leaders have expressed their disagreement, as Von Der Leyen has overstepped her powers. So, the proposal has yet to be adopted by EU member states and the European Parliament. Written before the G20 meeting, last February,
Europe's odd couple: The dysfunctional relationship at the heart of the EU

Relations between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel have never been so bad…One of the centerpieces of the G20 will be a meeting between Michel and Chinese leader Xi Jinping scheduled to take place on the fringes of the summit. Given the divisions within the EU about how to deal with Beijing, it’s shaping up to be a crucial meeting. But Von der Leyen hasn’t been invited. The reason? Her refusal to allow Michel to attend a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G7 in Germany in June.

EU Not Looking For 'systematic Confrontation' With China- Charles Michel said

European Union leaders held talks on ties with China on Friday, seeking to avoid outright confrontation with Beijing.

What is at stake: Hans von der Burchard on Twitter: "In what sounds like a ...

In what sounds like a swipe against U.S. push for decoupling from China, Scholz said in Brussels that he wants to maintain close trade ties with Beijing "The EU prides itself on being a union interested in global trade and it does not side with those who promote deglobalization."

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Fighter jets coming ASAP, Poland tells Ukraine - POLITICO

Btw, Is Poland becoming more authoritarian?

In October, police were criticised for detaining anti-fascist protestors at a nationalist rally, while not reacting to the illegal use of Nazi symbols by other demonstrators.

Illiberal, authoritarian Poland is on its way to becoming the largest and most sophisticated non-nuclear military power in Europe. The militarization and Americanization of Poland is a chess move for the U.S' domination of Central Asia. For that role, the US has Poland.The first conclusion to be drawn from this choice of Poland for the US strategy is that the EU (with members like Poland) does not need enemies to become irrelevant.

Meanwhile in the US, GOP and Dems hit DeSantis over Ukraine - POLITICO

(...) created a tsunami of responses from both Republicans and Democrats, many of them critical of the likely presidential candidate’s decision to call Russia’s invasion a “territorial dispute” and not among the U.S.’ “vital national interests.” … Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried going so far as to say on Twitter that “Being Putin’s should disqualify anyone from becoming president of the United States.”

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Fresh news, ICC judges issue arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin over alleged crimes

The US doesn’t recognize the jurisdiction of the ICC. The US opposes the work of the ICC in relation to its own citizens. Furthermore, as we already know, Pentagon Blocks Sharing Evidence of Possible Russian War. A (conveniently) ​under-reported story, Boris Johnson condemns International Criminal Court Palestine investigation as ‘attack on Israel’
According to Boris, the ICC should not be taken seriously.

[Mithradates]

We do need some reliable source that says it's "not even close", though.

NATO isnt a reliable source?

Otherwise it's wishful thinking, particularly in light of the abc article about people dying in the front on average in their first 4 hours there.

I tried to hint that the guy is exaggerating a bit.
You like logic so lets use it.
Ukraine may have ten brigades fighting in Bakhmut, or around 30.000 personnel.
That is the front.
Lets say 3000 of them dies in every 4 hours thats 4x6=18.000 dead Ukrainians per day.
540.000 per month.
Does that sound realistic to you?
Even the logistic is impossible.

Russia anyway has far more people than Ukraine.

So? Quality beats quantity, not to mention Ukraine is also a huge country with a population of 43 million. But again, those times when more people=win are long gone.

[Kyriakos]

All that is theoretical, without believable stats from at least somewhat independent observers, it's impossible to estimate who is worse off. And no, nato has conflict of interest, you can't simply rely on it for figures of dead on both sides (talk of the obvious).

[Mithradates]

All that is theoretical,

Ukraine can only reinforce Bakhmut through some limited roads, even just sending there that many people/gear is physically impossible.

without believable stats from at least somewhat independent observers,

Independent observers, like who?

it's impossible to estimate who is worse off.

Since Russians are on the offensive and they are gaining virtually nothing, no its not impossible.

And no, nato has conflict of interest, you can't simply rely on it for figures of dead on both sides (talk of the obvious).

Yeah I get it, you really want to hear that Glorious Russia is winning, good luck finding the data. Stario might help you with that.

[Kyriakos]

It's a problem when curiously A and notA are supposedly part of the same set, defined by likeness to A.
In other words, that pro-russian sources are biased, doesn't mean nato which is making/selling/sending weapons to Ukraine is not biased. At least we should agree on that.

As for the "offensive", Ukraine not so long ago had its own offensive, was it losing massively more than Russia then?

As for "gaining virtually nothing", it's no wonder that if the road to attack the industrial sector from the north is opened, there is no ability to form any defensive line inland, so you at least can identify how important keeping Bakhmut is. Zelensky does, time to follow

[conon394]

As for "gaining virtually nothing", it's no wonder that if the road to attack the industrial sector from the north is opened, there is no ability to form any defensive line inland, so you at least can identify how important keeping Bakhmut is. Zelensky does, time to follow

Opening what what road to where? The Russians don't do truck heavy logistics - the whole reason they can hammer Bakhmut is because its close to the rail logistics. And best its just part of grinding out maybe getting yards(meters) nearer to the most minimal victory of owning the Donbass at a cost that profoundly out of scale with the gain.

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Illiberal, authoritarian Poland is on its way to becoming the largest and most sophisticated non-nuclear military power in Europe. The militarization and Americanization of Poland is a chess move for the U.S' domination of Central Asia. For that role, the US has Poland.The first conclusion to be drawn from this choice of Poland for the US strategy is that the EU (with members like Poland) does not need enemies to become irrelevant.

Really Ludicus too bad Portugal or France or Germany is not stepping to be in the forefront of liberal European defense spending. You are just annoyed the Poles whatever the domestic politics don't want to be dictated to by Russia for reasons because I don't care I'm on the far side of NATO and the EU and was safe and happy and enjoyed cheap Russian gas dependency that I could call green because well all the nasty climate effects occurred in Russia with their production issues.

[Kyriakos]

"Opening the road" is a phrase; doesn't have to mean literal road of some specific type. It does mean that there is a reason why defensive lines were set in Donbass, and it wasn't just because Ukraine had kept part of it before this war started.

[conon394]

OK you do the google map work and demonstrate the incredible logistical shoe that will drop when Ukraine decides the bleeding balance is not worth fighting for in a nothing town anymore. Russia decided to make this a fight over the winter. And pretty view and every account says Russia is trading away more lives for its gains. It has become politically important on the Ukrainian side but logistically they fall back 2 miles to a better defensive position. I would criticize the Ukrainian side for not pulling out earlier because it seems Russia is will to and able in this case to mass the resources to brick he loss ratio down to where Ukraine should say nope that to expensive.

[PointOfViewGun]

Bakhmut have been quite beneficial for Ukraine so far but its starting to reach its end. It started as an area where Wagner group was primarily operating at. They had to show that they were a capable fighting force. Not being able to take an insignificant town was a salt to their wounds. So they tired, and tried, and tried, and tried... It was not picked by Russia for any strategic value. Yet, it became a place for Russia to save some face. Remember Stario claimed a few months ago that Russia was starting a massive offensive that would devour Ukraine in no time? I do. So far, Russia only managed to take over a few small towns while loosing a great number of soldiers and machinery. Bakhmut, however, still stands. Where it became an embarrassment for Russia where they kept pouring resources, it became a pride for Ukraine as a place to hold the Russians and inflict great casualties. Every day that window closes and Ukraine needs to take a step back to create new Bakhmuts for Russia to fall on under Ukrainian bullets. It's understandable that some people try to exaggerate Bakhmut's tactical importance in biblical measures but the reality begs to differ.

To put things in perspective, grayish blue is what Russia lost since April 2022 while that tiny green portion to lower right is what they gained since September 2022 while the little orange part is Bakhmut:

[Septentrionalis]

Remember Stario claimed a few months ago that Russia was starting a massive offensive that would devour Ukraine in no time? I do.

Thank you, POVG. I think that it is important to go through previous claims and "certain" predictions presented to see who actually have understood the realities of this war and whose predictions going forward are worth listening to. Retroactively, this thread makes for some very interesting reading.

[Kyriakos]

OK you do the google map work and demonstrate the incredible logistical shoe that will drop when Ukraine decides the bleeding balance is not worth fighting for in a nothing town anymore. Russia decided to make this a fight over the winter. And pretty view and every account says Russia is trading away more lives for its gains. It has become politically important on the Ukrainian side but logistically they fall back 2 miles to a better defensive position. I would criticize the Ukrainian side for not pulling out earlier because it seems Russia is will to and able in this case to mass the resources to brick he loss ratio down to where Ukraine should say nope that to expensive.

The loss to Ukraine is already too expensive, according to Zelensky himself, but he maintains they have to keep trying to defend there. You act as if it's the middle of nowhere or just another town which can be left and nothing changes - but if that was so, the people in Ukraine wouldn't just agree to keep dying to defend it "for political reasons".