Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Coughdrop addict]

Russia and its supporters really need to ask themselves why countries that have democracy and self-determination after decades of Russian direct or indirect rule seek to ally with the west and NATO but not Russia.

Because they have been tricked by western Nazis.

Why have millions left Russia for a better life in the west while only individual characters like Steven Seagal have done the opposite?

Because they have been tricked by western satanists.

Why are former Warsaw Pact members supporting Ukraine in its battle against Russia while they have first-hand experience of the boon that Russian influence bestows upon their lives?

Because they have been tricked by western Jews.

Why are Russian oligarchs spending so much time in the west and educating their children there, if the west is such a terrible place?

Because they have been tricked by western transgenders.

To a Russian apologists there is no conceivable reason anyone knowing all the facts and making a decision based purely on logic would not choose to throw themselves at Putin's feet. Therefore there MUST BE a conspiracy to deceive the world about the eternal glory of Dear Leader and his kingdom. And wouldn't you know it, the leaders of the conspiracy are always somebody in the west that Putin's media just released a screed against!

[Kyriakos]

Things have the tendency to morph into their observer.

[Alastor]

An article from a parallel dimension:
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/03/...-mobilization/

[Coughdrop addict]

https://metro.co.uk/2023/03/04/top-p...ning-18386581/

The fanatical pro-war zealot who has advocated using nuclear weapons against Ukraine is rumoured to have summoned a leading doctor from the United Arab Emirates because he ‘does not trust’ Moscow doctors.
Several opposition sources have claimed kidney illness accounted for Kadyrov’s surprising absence from Putin’s state of the nation speech on 12 February, and a recent ‘bloated’ appearance, as seen at a recent meeting in his palace in Chechen capital Grozny with Denis Pushilin, head of the invaded Donetsk People’s Republic.
The Chechen’s leader’s luxury private jet was known to have made several trips recently to the UAE, and he has been less visible than usual in recent weeks.

Looks like someone has outlived his usefulness.

[Septentrionalis]

An article from a parallel dimension:
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/03/...-mobilization/

I recommend that. Great comedy! My favorite part is this:

It must be stressed that until now the Russian government has been lenient towards its domestic critics and enemies. Western talk of an ‘authoritarian’ or ‘autocratic’ Kremlin has just been libelous propaganda.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

It must be stressed that until now the Russian government has been lenient towards its domestic critics and enemies. Western talk of an ‘authoritarian’ or ‘autocratic’ Kremlin has just been libelous propaganda.

Obviously libelous propaganda.

Even in the West business manager jump in masses out of the window. Nothing to see here, move on.

[Ludicus]

I do believe you have found the very first batch of people who think Bakhmut is important...

Hundreds of fighters on both sides do not die every day in one place if it has no strategic importance. Zelensky thinks Bahkmut is important.
Exclusive: Volodymyr Zelensky warns of 'open road through Ukraine’s east if Russia captures Bakhmut, as he resists calls to retreat... - CNN

“We understand that after Bakhmut they could go further. They could go to Kramatorsk, they could go to Sloviansk, it would be open road for the Russians after Bakhmut to other towns in Ukraine, in the Donetsk direction,” he told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer in an exclusive interview from Kyiv. “That’s why our guys are standing there.”

----
Don’t expect Putin to fall anytime soon. Valerie Hopkins writes about Putin's solid domestic support, One Year Into War… NYTimes

“The framework of the conflict helped people to come to terms with it,” said Denis Volkov, the director of the Levada Center, an independent pollster in Moscow. “The West is against us. Here are our soldiers, there are the enemy soldiers, and in this framework, you have to take sides.”

The New York Times reporter discusses support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine among the Russian people. Fareed Zakaria GPS-CNN Watch: Reporter says Russian losses are increasing support for Putin's war.
---
A few days ago, I heard a political commentator (CNN) say that the West has a moral duty to send troops to Ukraine (triggering, of course, World War III). I couldn't believe it. And yet, there is nothing new here. At the beginning of WWI, warmongering hysteria also dominated public opinion. Jean Jaurès rightly said in 1914, six days before he was murdered by a fanatical militarist at the beginning of WWI, “Chaque peuple paraît à travers les rues de l'Europe avec sa petite torche à la main, et maintenant voilà l'incendie”. (Each person appears throughout the streets of Europe with his little torch in his hand and now there is the fire) Jaurès, il y a 100 ans
Even the great Thomas Mann was affected by this warmongering hysteria and defended war as an act of "Kultur”. In those days, only two great voices were heard against the war looming on the horizon: Roman Roland in France and Karl Kraus in Austria. None of them lived long enough to know that history had proved them right. Unfortunately, today we no longer have the Europe of Olaf Palme and Willy Brandt. We have a neo -colonialist Europe that boasts of past glories of the European Garden (quousque tandem Borrell...) while scorning centuries of culture in other regions of the planet. Boris Johnson caught on camera reciting Kipling in Myanmar
We no longer have the Europe of joint purchase of vaccines (although there is much to be said about that, and not always well); we now have the Europe of joint purchase of arms. A few hours ago: Breton: "EU plan for the joint purchase of arms for Kiev is ready"
Even though, according to Politico,
"Several EU countries have indicated that they will not participate in any EU plans for the joint purchase of ammunition and weapons, including non-NATO members such as Ireland and Austria. Hungary is also reluctant to send weapons to Ukraine through an EU fund."

Even Borrel, finally, began to understand that help cannot be unlimited Ukraine: Josep Borrell rejects Estonia's request for one million rounds of ammunition

Money doesn't fall from the sky and it's not because a member state says we should have more money than money will appear as if by a miracle.

We know that peace could have been a possibility in this proxy war between the US and Russia after the beginning of the conflict, but according to Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennet, the UK and the US were not interested in peace. Ex-Israel PM Naftali Bennett blames West for thwarting

“Basically, yes. They blocked it,” to a question if US and its allies ‘blocked’ the peace process between Moscow and Kyiv.

We have already talked about a possible solution to this conflict. The imperfect peace. A few days ago, I read a text recently published by a Portuguese historian, Rui Tavares, about the life of Damião de Gois, Erasmus and Thomas More, friends in their youth and until their death. They had in common the idea of a humanistic Europe. In the epitaph on Góis' tombstone appears the word "Europe". (Written by him years before his death, when referring to his life as an European diplomat). Today more than ever, it is usual to talk about just wars, but only the blindness of many prevents them from agreeing with Erasmus that an imperfect peace is preferable to a just war - "if such a thing happens," as the great humanist added.

But there are some hopeful signs: the emerging movement for peace and against war in the US and Europe; the statements from US military leaders who claim this conflict will not be solved by military means. In its overwhelming majority, the rest of the world, (even while condemning the Russian invasion) is relatively indifferent or neutral in this war, considered as a European conflict. China, Brazil, and India say they are willing to mediate in the conflict. If we had to sum up this year of war, what we see is the destruction of Ukraine, the impoverishment of Europe, and the astronomical profits of the arms and fossil energy industries.

[conon394]

Hundreds of fighters on both sides do not die every day in one place if it has no strategic importance. Zelensky thinks Bahkmut is important.
Exclusive: Volodymyr Zelensky warns of 'open road through Ukraine’s east if Russia captures Bakhmut, as he resists calls to retreat... - CNN

Zelensky Rhetoric is not reality. Ukrainians can fall back a few km to prepared fortifications and high ground. There is no grand network of rail lines or such that will be lost. Bahkmut is important because Russia made is so and it was a logistically easy place for them to press an advance in the Donbass. That they are seemly willing to do at a really high loss ration makes it important to Ukraine.

We have already talked about a possible solution to this conflict. The imperfect peace.

Ahhh yesss. State A violates it guarantee of the territorial integrity of State B a decade ago by violating a formal agreement. Illegibly annexes part of state B and tries to do the same in several other regions. In one getting close enough to formant a low level war since 2014. Than State A violates a second round of agreements it was party to by recognizing the independence of another part of country B. Than State moves immediately to launching the largest war in Europe for some time. Than State A formally annexes the places it wanted and tired to annex more subtly back in 2014.

And your peace plan is? Note State A also continues to violate the soveranty of State C and D but nobody seems to care bout that. And it did that before NATO expanded anywhere. So one can not help be surprised so many Other countries were really fast to start pounding on the door to join NATO. Also of course state A likes to talk about deep historical roots and mystical ethnic connections but somehow holds Konigsberg as a garrison fortress pointed at Poland and Germany - when it has no such links to the place.


But right Ludicus somewhere in there we in the west hurt Russia's feelings best construct a 6 lane off ramp for Putin - that he clearly does not want.

[Ludicus]

Zelensky Rhetoric is not reality.

Conon, tell that to Zelensky, that's where hundreds of Ukrainians and Russians die every day. In fact, as you said, it is a "place for them to press an advance in the Donbas".
---
I missed this,

Pretty sure I could make as creepy a video in the US by finding the right LDS, evangelical or NRA summer camp or random militia camp with the right edits on top.

Nah, the context is completely different. Look, American Nazis in the 1930s—The German American Bund
But that happened in a democratic country. It is not the case in a one-party country like Ukraine, whose hero is a Nazi. Even Poland agrees, PM against "glorification" of Ukrainian nationalist Bandera

there can be no nuances here.

[Kyriakos]

Zelensky Rhetoric is not reality. Ukrainians can fall back a few km to prepared fortifications and high ground. There is no grand network of rail lines or such that will be lost. Bahkmut is important because Russia made is so and it was a logistically easy place for them to press an advance in the Donbass. That they are seemly willing to do at a really high loss ration makes it important to Ukraine.

Isn't it a tad more likely that Zelensky didn't just lie that it's important, and have so many Ukrainians die there, and instead thinks (as he says) that it is important?
And if we are indeed going to refer to terrain, maybe a map or source of your claim would be needed.

[conon394]

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer...758942502&z=12

Zoom in Backhmut. You can see it salient that if abandoned shortens the line and roughly 1/2 miles behind is a series high ground and another small urban center. For the Russians critically they secure no great rail center - vital to their logistics nor even a access to any great 6 lane highways. They just get the same fight 2 miles farther from their rail head.

Isn't it a tad more likely that Zelensky didn't just lie that it's important, and have so many Ukrainians die there, and instead thinks (as he says) that it is important?

Well I'm not in his head. But even the best leader in war has to sort a crap ton of issues. No one what to be told they are the last guy staying till the last hour to hold someplace that the high command had already written off (or their parents, friends and family). Like I said Russia made it important by investing so much effort in trying to get it after it had devolved it a bloody knife fight that seems to have to do a lot more with Putin and or those around him looking for validation no matter how many men they kill doing it.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

An article from a parallel dimension:
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/03/...-mobilization/

The fact that he calls Bakhmut "Artyomovsk" says everything that I need to know about the source.
I did try to read a bit further and skip through, but just couldn't after reading the following:

Russians now report is the case, Washington is making a mockery of international law

I died of irony after reading this. Which international law allows Russia to invade Ukraine? Which international law allows Russia to commit literally just about every single human rights violation, and every almost single imagineable warcrime?
Wshington is making a mockery of international law???! This term doesn't even exist in Russia!

Fuking hell, I'd be laughing if this wasn't so god damn infuriating! How can people stoop so low as to write such complete, objective, indefensible and utter bullcrp? How many rubles does it cost to have someone deeptht you so hard?

[Coughdrop addict]

Ahhh yesss. State A violates it guarantee of the territorial integrity of State B a decade ago by violating a formal agreement. Illegibly annexes part of state B and tries to do the same in several other regions. In one getting close enough to formant a low level war since 2014. Than State A violates a second round of agreements it was party to by recognizing the independence of another part of country B. Than State moves immediately to launching the largest war in Europe for some time. Than State A formally annexes the places it wanted and tired to annex more subtly back in 2014.

And your peace plan is? Note State A also continues to violate the soveranty of State C and D but nobody seems to care bout that. And it did that before NATO expanded anywhere. So one can not help be surprised so many Other countries were really fast to start pounding on the door to join NATO. Also of course state A likes to talk about deep historical roots and mystical ethnic connections but somehow holds Konigsberg as a garrison fortress pointed at Poland and Germany - when it has no such links to the place.


But right Ludicus somewhere in there we in the west hurt Russia's feelings best construct a 6 lane off ramp for Putin - that he clearly does not want.

Here's what will happen if the apologists get their way:

-Russia gets Ukraine.

-After they get it, they will demand Latvia.

-Then Estonia.

-Then Lithuania.

-Then Poland.

-Then Germany.

-Then the rest of the former Soviet satellites.

-Then they will eyeball the rest Europe.

-Then they will knock on our door. With a battering ram.

-Then the apologists will open the door and invite them in.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Here's what will happen if the apologists get their way:

-Russia gets Ukraine.

-After they get it, they will demand Latvia.

-Then Estonia.

-Then Lithuania.

-Then Poland.

-Then Germany.

-Then the rest of the former Soviet satellites.

-Then they will eyeball the rest Europe.

-Then they will knock on our door. With a battering ram.

-Then the apologists will open the door and invite them in.

You're wrong. Moldova is the next after Ukraine, not Latvia.

[Septentrionalis]

The future of all platforms from now on is most likely going to be about either siding with Russia or with much of the rest of the world in a true cold war spirit. It is hard to see how the two views on what is going on in the world can be reconciled in any meaningful way. Russians and their supporters are clearly constructing an alternative interpretation of all international relations. I find it hard to imagine that I would stay on any platform that supports this fascist, Russian failed state show much longer.

[conon394]

You're wrong. Moldova is the next after Ukraine, not Latvia.

I agree Moldovia is the easy option. But than Georgia. After that I not sure. Not sure what more Putin can afford with Ukraine not going as planned. Maybe Serious intrusion in all things ex Yugoslavia and pro Serbia, but in the Baltics I thing Estonia would be the lower hanging target.

[Kyriakos]

Now read Zelensky's interview on Bahkmut, and not only does he say it is very important to Ukraine to try to defend it, he argues that if it falls then the entire front is exposed.
So the significance cannot be understated, which certainly explains why Zelensky is ready to have so many Ukrainians killed there.

[Stario]

It effectively divides Ukraine in two. So big blow to Ukraine indeed...
But then again some of us already know Ukraine has lost at this point of time. It's now a matter of how much longer the Zelensky regime is willing to prolong this war (which will of course substantially increase the death toll and destruction of Ukraine).
We see in WW2 Germany prolonged the war for nearly 2 years. So not out of the question this can be done here; possibly even longer if murica and murican ran NATO continue it's support...

[Mithradates]

Now read Zelensky's interview on Bahkmut, and not only does he say it is very important to Ukraine to try to defend it, he argues that if it falls then the entire front is exposed.
So the significance cannot be understated, which certainly explains why Zelensky is ready to have so many Ukrainians killed there.

Yes, taking Bakhmut could give the Russians a launching point for a push northwest along the E40 highway to Slovyansk, or north to the town of Siversk. But Russian forces have tried and failed to take these cities in the past so no, it would not change the broader conflict, Ukraine has been strengthening the towns in the region for 8 years, every town is another Bakhmut.

Bakhmut is important to the Ukrainians partly because it is a symbol of resistance ("Bakhmut holds”) but mainly because they can wear down Russian/Wagner forces there.
In the Bakhmut area the Ukrainian and Russian losses are 1:5 in comparison but probably higher, Wagner alone lost more than 30k troops and there is a difference in the casualties too, in the Ukraininan army about the fifth of the casualties die while in the Russian army more than the third of them.

Bakhmut is important to Prigozhin because it represents a chance to showcase his Wagner force, if he could take the town that would boost his status back in Russia.

You might not know but Russia recently lost the biggest tank battle in the war at Vuhledar (Russia lost 130 tanks and IFVs, and all this whithout Ukraine having the Western tanks yet), come to mind I believe neither You or Ludicus are actually following the events of this war, you read the articles but both of you are stuck in the mindset that "Russia is invincible, what nonsense are these people talking about, Russia cannot lose haha”

In the following months the only new capabilities Russia will get is more poorly trained infantry with rifles and shovels while Ukraine will keep recieving Western trained troops and modern weapons/equipment.

Time is on Ukraine's side, not Russia's.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

It effectively divides Ukraine in two. So big blow to Ukraine indeed...

In no way does it do that.

But then again some of us already know Ukraine has lost at this point of time.

Dear Vatnik, how goes Vuhledar? How's the grand offensive around Orikhiv progressing? How are the attempts to push towards Kupiansk ongoing? The offensive west of Kreminna?
Oh, right. Every single one of those is a failure. Do you know what they have in common, that separated them from the offensive in Bakhmut? That they're all done by the Rashist military. Every single offensive the Rashist army attempts ends in failure. All of them. The one front with any movement, Bakhmut, is handled by a PMC (and as we all know, PMC's are illegal in Russia).
The Rashist army is a joke.

But you, dear vatnik, told us the grand offensive has begun back in January. Where is that offensive? Is this it? A few towns and villages near Bakhmut and literally nothing else? That's the grand offensive that's meant to sweep Ukraine away?
Lmao.

It's now a matter of how much longer the Zelensky regime is willing to prolong this war (which will of course substantially increase the death toll and destruction of Ukraine).

The longer Ukraine resists, the fewer Ukranians will die in the end, because Ukraine won't fall. Ukranians won't go like sheep to the slaughter.

We see in WW2 Germany prolonged the war for nearly 2 years. So not out of the question this can be done here; possibly even longer if murica and murican ran NATO continue it's support...

You mix up your history vatnik, the Russich Wehrmacht invaded Ukraine, made initial gains, Ukraine got lend lease, made a counter offensive stopping the aggressor dead in its tracks, the aggressor makes some final attempts to advance and gets pointlessly bogged down in an unimportant city (Bakhmut), and soon will be rolled over.

Now lets look at actual ww2 history: The Wehrmacht invades the SU, makes initial gains, Soviets get lend lease, make a counter offensive in the winter of 41 preventing the fall of the capital, the Wehrmacht goes on the offensive again, gets pointlessly bogged down in Stalingrad, takes most of it, then gets rolled over.

We are seeing history repeat indeed. The fascists lost then, they'll lose now. Slava Ukraini! Heroyam Slava!