View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

Voters
148. You may not vote on this poll
  • I support Ukraine fully.

    103 69.59%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.14%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.70%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    11 7.43%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.73%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.41%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #7781
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    Posts
    9,815

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Russia has a high level of what used to be called autarky, its self sufficient in a lot of its supply chains. Its not at US levels but compared to China (which is woefully overexposed) it can weather high levels of sanctions and not face actual starvation/mass levels of mortality. However its no secret that Russia's warmaking capacity is hurt by its reliance on the overseas manufacture of some IT hardware.

    From a logistics PoV Russia can sustain war for long periods, or at least "not making peace" periods, an it won't have to surrender because it runs out of wheat or iron.

    The stress point is political will: and continued poor military performance will supply plenty of stress. There won't be a 1917 (famine->revolution) anytime soon, but there may be a 1989 (military failure and ageing leadership->fall of government). The stress is accumulating.

    However if it wants anything like a resolution or a win it will need far more support from China. China is not in a position to kick anything of without exposing its population to mass starvation. I had a look at that fella Zeihan's book, look he's a flip story teller but there's some useful thinking there, and he feels China cannot afford anything other than status quo or the swiftest of wins. I don't think Xi can afford to back Russia much more than he already has because sanctions will utterly destroy his economy, and if scaled up all the way cost hundreds of millions of lives without any US military action beyond blockade.

    China is already experiencing significant stress on the fringe of this proxy war: IIRC Xi centralised power even more sharply late last year, and has been mending fences with Australia among others.

    Ukraine has been a very useful reconnaissance for Xi, and I think the lesson is leave the US tf alone for another decade at least. Even with a corpse president they are too much of a handful for China.
    US blockade against China would first require the US ruining economical interests in the Eu. That isn't something which will simply be accepted, despite Eu up to now being a vassal (they do care about money).
    Furthermore, it will also mean world war.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  2. #7782

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    I missed those new T-14s but maybe he means refurbishing museum pieces.
    He meant Wunderwaffe like this:

  3. #7783
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Colfax WA, neat I have a barn and 49 acres - I have 2 horses, 15 chickens - but no more pigs
    Posts
    16,794

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    US blockade against China would first require the US ruining economical interests in the Eu. That isn't something which will simply be accepted, despite Eu up to now being a vassal (they do care about money).
    Furthermore, it will also mean world war.
    I think overall you miss his point. Neither the US nor Japan Nor the US can really accept the Taiwan falling into China's hands as a prize. Sans a brilliant once in a century lighting invasion in conjunction with a robust quisling movement - the US will declare an exclusion zone and pretty much all its current NATO and western allies in Ukraine will join in eating that economic cost. You likely won't like the alternative.

    -------------

    @Sar1n

    OK They got be, supposed to simply be a mobile way for placing and powering the turret as its fixed in a field fortification? That seems to the best light I can come up with. If they work and the turrets are old enough they might even have some armor on them. And they probably having never fought a naval war have a ton of the ammo laying about.

    Not a bad ideal in that case. And if both are old enough they work w/o any need for western chips etc. The Russian are building a ton of trench lines all along behind the front lines. Drive that into a revetment deep enough and toss sand bags on it and you got a cheap dual 25mm cannon emplacement and all your potentially wasting is a mobnick and some gear from the 50s
    Last edited by conon394; March 05, 2023 at 01:40 PM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  4. #7784
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    Posts
    9,815

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Usually it's not a good idea to have your plan based on ideal developments. And it makes no sense that countries will fall in line if it means financial ruin, let alone when China does not threaten them at all and they do business with it. So, no, I don't even see this Eu going along with a blockade on China, and virtually all the shipping to China is done by Eu companies.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  5. #7785
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Colfax WA, neat I have a barn and 49 acres - I have 2 horses, 15 chickens - but no more pigs
    Posts
    16,794

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Usually it's not a good idea to have your plan based on ideal developments. And it makes no sense that countries will fall in line if it means financial ruin, let alone when China does not threaten them at all and they do business with it. So, no, I don't even see this Eu going along with a blockade on China, and virtually all the shipping to China is done by Eu companies.
    Sorry man no western country can afford to have China own Taiwan's chip industry. That way lies high tech suicide.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  6. #7786
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    Posts
    9,815

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    That's your view, Conon. Don't you think it's problematic to pretend that US=every other country it is allied with? If the US doesn't want to do business with China, do you really imagine no one in the "west" will either?
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  7. #7787
    Praeses
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    8,355

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    How hard will Putin celebrate if Bakhmut is taken? I'm thinking VE day style parades. Clearly this place is more important than Berlin was in WW2 so I expect red Square to be decked.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    US blockade against China would first require the US ruining economical interests in the Eu. That isn't something which will simply be accepted, despite Eu up to now being a vassal (they do care about money).
    Furthermore, it will also mean world war.
    Yes China starting an invasion of Taiwan ends in China losing, either conventionally or in a nuclear exchange. I mean we all lose, but China loses hard.

    The status quo is the US continuing to win. China would have to upset the order to grab Taiwan, infringing a lot of other economies' interests: the US permits almost everyone access to Taiwan's chips right now, including China. Russia is one of the few states that can actually live with US sanctions, they are a very rare case. China cannot afford to play like Russia does.

    A Chinese invasion attempt wouldn't be the US upsetting the order, and a very doable US response of naval blockade outside air force range would sink China into a population halving famine inside a year.

    The Belt and Road initiative would be a world changing realignment if it created terrestrial trade routes capable of sustaining Chinese trade with its resources but it isn't 10% built yet and it doesn't connect to all of them: IIRC most states have got as far as the memoranda stage. Furthermore, land transport is still more energy hungry by at least one, maybe two orders of magnitude, that's an economy killing burden.

    The US owns the oceans. Thats where the money is right now. They aren't particularly nice, but the Chinese aren't making much of an alternative right now, who wants to be Uighured into a Han? Put another way, the US will take a certain number of your young people's genitals in the name of gender equity, but China has an organ harvesting program FR, they'll take everything.

    I hadn't really felt the US was this strong but they had Coma President and Clown President (didn't those two make Putin feel smart), they flexed by having a black President ("shake his hand you bigots!") and before that the Oil Lobby had a literal stooge in office ("the problem is, the French don't have a word for marionette"). Clearly a lot of people owe the Deep State an apology, they are running things fairly well. In one way Iraq and Afghanistan were blunders but in another that was Big Oil saying "the rules apply to you, not to us" and that lesson remains.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  8. #7788
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    Posts
    9,815

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    "We all lose, but China loses hard", in "a nuclear exchange". Better see logic, which says that US won't win a nuclear war; it will stop existing. If it's ok as long as Russia or China also stop existing, I think most of the US population wouldn't agree.
    You are also clearly wrong to expect most of the EU (including all the countries with actual armies) ever agreeing to going to blockade against China, let alone during the crisis with Russia.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  9. #7789
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Not home
    Posts
    2,534

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Taiwan's chip industry won't fall in China's hands. I'm sure the US has plans in place to blow it all up to sky heaven in the event of an invasion. So that concern is over and done with. Besides it is the Netherlands and not Taiwan that is the crucial link when it comes to chip production. And this nuclear bravado is really not helping anyone, or for that matter earlier calls to end the state of Russia. Such gang-ho attitudes, if held by the few is what leads to catastrophe for the many.

    Either way, here is an interesting article I read the other day:
    https://nationalinterest.org/feature...ukraine-206264

  10. #7790
    Praeses
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    8,355

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    "We all lose, but China loses hard", in "a nuclear exchange". Better see logic, which says that US won't win a nuclear war; it will stop existing. If it's ok as long as Russia or China also stop existing, I think most of the US population wouldn't agree.
    You are also clearly wrong to expect most of the EU (including all the countries with actual armies) ever agreeing to going to blockade against China, let alone during the crisis with Russia.
    Everyone loses a nuclear war, I agree, but the country turned to glass loses harder than the one that takes a few hits. Please don't tell me China has as many ICBMs as the US.

    The US doesn't need the EU to blockade China they can literally do it by themselves. Why would you imagine otherwise? They invaded Iraq with no more casus belli than muh oil contracts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Taiwan's chip industry won't fall in China's hands. I'm sure the US has plans in place to blow it all up to sky heaven in the event of an invasion. So that concern is over and done with. Besides it is the Netherlands and not Taiwan that is the crucial link when it comes to chip production. And this nuclear bravado is really not helping anyone, or for that matter earlier calls to end the state of Russia. Such gang-ho attitudes, if held by the few is what leads to catastrophe for the many.

    Either way, here is an interesting article I read the other day:
    https://nationalinterest.org/feature...ukraine-206264
    Yes I agree. I think Russia like its predecessor the USSR has played pretty safe with nuclear threats, they haven't openly declared or ever used nukes in war. The US has and in Cuba they left an open threat on the table until the USSR blinked.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  11. #7791
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    Posts
    9,815

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Because the ships the US would be blockading ARE Eu ships

    I don't see your point about number of Chinese nukes. I suppose Russia will be indifferent, because it helps your scenario. Then again, if all the US cities are nuked, US in a day stops being a superpower, which (in your scenario where Russia isn't involved in that war) sort of leaves someone else there to run things. Of course you can forget about Ukraine in that case too, so again I don't see the logic in your idea that US will be ok in a war with China.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  12. #7792

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Yes China starting an invasion of Taiwan ends in China losing, either conventionally or in a nuclear exchange. I mean we all lose, but China loses hard.
    That doesn't really make sense; a Chinese occupation of Taiwan isn't something that the US would start a nuclear exchange over.

  13. #7793
    Praeses
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    8,355

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Not saying the US would be fine in a nuclear war. I am saying they are more likely to start one than anyone else.

    I also believe that China is close to the limit of its ability to pressure the US because any further levels of conflict hurt China more than they hurt the US.

    I agree that China occupying Taiwan wouldn't spark a nuclear exchange but they would have to get past the US Navy first, and I can't see them doing that without starting a war, up to and including using nukes.

    Maybe I am wrong, I was wrong about Rusia's ability to quickly subdue Ukraine.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  14. #7794
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    Posts
    9,815

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    You imagine the US navy forming a circle around Taiwan that literally does not allow ships merely to move through it? Or how else is this "China has to hit first" work? The Chinese sea isn't a small lake where you can build a wall of ships.
    Then again, do you think the US would do well in a naval war with China, right next to China's coast with all the ship-sinking missiles launched from there?
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  15. #7795
    Mithradates's Avatar Domesticus
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    2,192

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    The 1st Guards Tank Army (the elite, their original purpose was to stop a NATO invasion) will be re-equiped with T-62s.
    Just how pitiful this is.
    These tanks were first introduced when the Beatles was just a club band in Hamburg.
    Although sitting in one of these is still better than assaulting strong points with... shovels.



  16. #7796
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    Posts
    9,815

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Tbf, it's a year into the war, and Russia doesn't yet have to revert to ww2 "patriotic war" style turning all its industry to weapon production.
    How many high end tanks do you think Ukraine would have after a year of war, relying on itself?
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  17. #7797

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Tbf, it's a year into the war, and Russia doesn't yet have to revert to ww2 "patriotic war" style turning all its industry to weapon production.
    How many high end tanks do you think Ukraine would have after a year of war, relying on itself?
    That's the point. Ukraine doesn't have to rely on itself. The number of tanks Ukraine is receiving is many times the tanks RUssia can reproduce in a year.
    The Armenian Issue

  18. #7798

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithradates View Post
    The 1st Guards Tank Army (the elite, their original purpose was to stop a NATO invasion) will be re-equiped with T-62s.
    Just how pitiful this is.
    These tanks were first introduced when the Beatles was just a club band in Hamburg.
    You have a source for that? Last I heard, 1st Guards TA basically lost its mechanization in battles around Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions.

  19. #7799

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Sar1n View Post
    You have a source for that?
    The source he posted is the UK Ministry of Defence. Those intelligence updates are posted on their Twitter account. They quantify "a realistic possibility" as 40–50%.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  20. #7800
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Colfax WA, neat I have a barn and 49 acres - I have 2 horses, 15 chickens - but no more pigs
    Posts
    16,794

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    You imagine the US navy forming a circle around Taiwan that literally does not allow ships merely to move through it? Or how else is this "China has to hit first" work? The Chinese sea isn't a small lake where you can build a wall of ships.
    Then again, do you think the US would do well in a naval war with China, right next to China's coast with all the ship-sinking missiles launched from there?
    Err don't be silly the US establish an exclusion and enforce it via sub and long range air delivered missiles.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •