Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Papay]

The numbers are in, and over the month of February the grand Rashist offensive has captured.. drumroll please.. 85 km^2, or about 0.01% of Ukraine. Wowza. If the Rashists continue at this rate, they'll have all of Ukraine in about.. 8333 months. Or roughly 694.4 years.

So the plan is for Ukraine to fight another 700 years till they are completely captured by Russia? I dont think its a good plan

[Kyriakos]

^Indeed ^^

[Sar1n]

So the plan is for Ukraine to fight another 700 years till they are completely captured by Russia? I dont think its a good plan

Even at conservative estimates, Russia suffers around 10k dead and 20k wounded per month. There won't be anyone capable of fighting left in Russia after 700 years.

[conon394]

So the plan is for Ukraine to fight another 700 years till they are completely captured by Russia? I dont think its a good plan

Well seeing as Russia is not doing much capturing ... not sure need to worry that long

[Papay]

Even at conservative estimates, Russia suffers around 10k dead and 20k wounded per month. There won't be anyone capable of fighting left in Russia after 700 years.

Yes i forgot that Ukraine suffers zero losses

[Sar1n]

Yes i forgot that Ukraine suffers zero losses

Since Russian state media keep claiming they're fighting NATO troops in disguise, I wouldn't worry too much about that.

[Ferdiad]

Yes i forgot that Ukraine suffers zero losses

Yeah I'm sure the russian population is so filled with fervour and jingoism they're willing to endure the horrendous losses they're taking. Despite the population difference Ukraine is inflciting more casualties on Russian than Russia on Ukraine.

[Kyriakos]

Russia also has roughly 4 times the population of Ukraine, so that isn't winning either.
But yes, what is the ratio of deaths between Russia and Ukraine? Do we even have any relatively reliable estimate?

[Ferdiad]

Russia also has roughly 4 times the population of Ukraine, so that isn't winning either.
But yes, what is the ratio of deaths between Russia and Ukraine? Do we even have any relatively reliable estimate?

Rusia has 4 times the population but they can't effectivly mobilise or equip the amount they're mobilising now nevermind millions more. According to this and a few orher articles it looks to be roughly (Russia)2:1(Ukraine) or 1.8:1 for casualties.


https://unherd.com/thepost/whats-the...rs-in-ukraine/
https://www.grid.news/story/global/2...aching-200000/

[PointOfViewGun]

So the plan is for Ukraine to fight another 700 years till they are completely captured by Russia? I dont think its a good plan

Except Russia doesn't have the resources to sustain this war for long. No need to wait that much.

[Papay]

Except Russia doesn't have the resources to sustain this war for long. No need to wait that much.

Yes i forgot that Ukraine is on the verge of capturing the industrial military complexes in Siberia

[PointOfViewGun]

Yes i forgot that Ukraine is on the verge of capturing the industrial military complexes in Siberia

Industrial military complexes that have very limited capacity and relies on imported goods that are getting harder for Russia to obtain. Did Russia found a portal to industry planet in a different galaxy?

[Kyriakos]

Rusia has 4 times the population but they can't effectivly mobilise or equip the amount they're mobilising now nevermind millions more. According to this and a few orher articles it looks to be roughly (Russia)2:1(Ukraine) or 1.8:1 for casualties.


https://unherd.com/thepost/whats-the...rs-in-ukraine/
https://www.grid.news/story/global/2...aching-200000/

If you only mean equipping mobilized soldiers, if they ever get into a corner they certainly will produce a lot more of such items. Let's not act like Russia has no industry even for basic materials.
A question is what that critical point will be, though. Possibly they will prefer to freeze the conflict if there is no prospect of peace with some territorial gain. But I do not see any merit in expecting them to just give up or have a revolution and remove Putin or other such scenarios.
Nor is there any possibility of Ukraine taking over territory big enough to compel surrender (by surrender, I mean Russia just giving up all parts of Ukraine it controls). I doubt Ukraine will even be able to take back territory it lost, the front is way too fortified by now.

[Papay]

Industrial military complexes that have very limited capacity and relies on imported goods that are getting harder for Russia to obtain. Did Russia found a portal to industry planet in a different galaxy?

Very limited? Compared to whom? All the NATO and EU countries combined? Perhaps. But it still better to build your own weapons than begging countries on the other side of the world

[PointOfViewGun]

Very limited? Compared to whom? All the NATO and EU countries combined? Perhaps. But it still better to build your own weapons than begging countries on the other side of the world

Very limited. Russia is able to build (a year) only a fraction of the tanks it lost in Ukraine.

[Cyclops]

Russia has a high level of what used to be called autarky, its self sufficient in a lot of its supply chains. Its not at US levels but compared to China (which is woefully overexposed) it can weather high levels of sanctions and not face actual starvation/mass levels of mortality. However its no secret that Russia's warmaking capacity is hurt by its reliance on the overseas manufacture of some IT hardware.

From a logistics PoV Russia can sustain war for long periods, or at least "not making peace" periods, an it won't have to surrender because it runs out of wheat or iron.

The stress point is political will: and continued poor military performance will supply plenty of stress. There won't be a 1917 (famine->revolution) anytime soon, but there may be a 1989 (military failure and ageing leadership->fall of government). The stress is accumulating.

However if it wants anything like a resolution or a win it will need far more support from China. China is not in a position to kick anything of without exposing its population to mass starvation. I had a look at that fella Zeihan's book, look he's a flip story teller but there's some useful thinking there, and he feels China cannot afford anything other than status quo or the swiftest of wins. I don't think Xi can afford to back Russia much more than he already has because sanctions will utterly destroy his economy, and if scaled up all the way cost hundreds of millions of lives without any US military action beyond blockade.

China is already experiencing significant stress on the fringe of this proxy war: IIRC Xi centralised power even more sharply late last year, and has been mending fences with Australia among others.

Ukraine has been a very useful reconnaissance for Xi, and I think the lesson is leave the US tf alone for another decade at least. Even with a corpse president they are too much of a handful for China.

[Coughdrop addict]

To put to rest once and for all the ridiculous notion that it is the rest of the world acting aggressively against a reluctant, pacifistic Russia:

https://thedailydigest.com/en/archiv...-east-germany/

The President of the Russian Republic of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, suggested, in state television, that the Russian army should invade “East Germany”: a territory of the former GDR (German Democratic Republic).

He also stressed that it would be wrong to negotiate with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “We are showing results that the West, the NATO countries and the EU cannot even dream of,” said Kadyrov. And he promised his followers: “We will break through and conquer Poland.”

It is clear that the world will never be safe as long as there is a Russian state.

[conon394]

Russia has a high level of what used to be called autarky, its self sufficient in a lot of its supply chains. Its not at US levels but compared to China (which is woefully overexposed) it can weather high levels of sanctions and not face actual starvation/mass levels of mortality. However its no secret that Russia's warmaking capacity is hurt by its reliance on the overseas manufacture of some IT hardware.

From a logistics PoV Russia can sustain war for long periods, or at least "not making peace" periods, an it won't have to surrender because it runs out of wheat or iron.

The stress point is political will: and continued poor military performance will supply plenty of stress. There won't be a 1917 (famine->revolution) anytime soon, but there may be a 1989 (military failure and ageing leadership->fall of government). The stress is accumulating.

However if it wants anything like a resolution or a win it will need far more support from China. China is not in a position to kick anything of without exposing its population to mass starvation. I had a look at that fella Zeihan's book, look he's a flip story teller but there's some useful thinking there, and he feels China cannot afford anything other than status quo or the swiftest of wins. I don't think Xi can afford to back Russia much more than he already has because sanctions will utterly destroy his economy, and if scaled up all the way cost hundreds of millions of lives without any US military action beyond blockade.

China is already experiencing significant stress on the fringe of this proxy war: IIRC Xi centralised power even more sharply late last year, and has been mending fences with Australia among others.

Ukraine has been a very useful reconnaissance for Xi, and I think the lesson is leave the US tf alone for another decade at least. Even with a corpse president they are too much of a handful for China.

A you knocking knocking Biden but he has so far been a far more effective democratic president than Obama - and one that has far less of congress to work with and a decidedly more hostile judiciary.

On Russia this year will tell. Putin planed well western reaction and sanctions and seems to guessed properly that China and India would stand on the sidelines. But A few thoughts. I don't believe Russia economic reporting. Sure some people got excited that the Russian economy crash fast, but now on year two Russia has burned through a lot buffers and I don't really Putin really thought W Europe would decuple from natural gas.

However its no secret that Russia's warmaking capacity is hurt by its reliance on the overseas manufacture of some IT hardware.

That would be a under statement I think. The fact to are sending out T-62s and BTR -50Ps and not T-14s or a wave of Su57s to achieve air superiority sopeaks more than just some reliance.

However if it wants anything like a resolution or a win it will need far more support from China. China is not in a position to kick anything of without exposing its population to mass starvation. I had a look at that fella Zeihan's book, look he's a flip story teller but there's some useful thinking there, and he feels China cannot afford anything other than status quo or the swiftest of wins. I don't think Xi can afford to back Russia much more than he already has because sanctions will utterly destroy his economy, and if scaled up all the way cost hundreds of millions of lives without any US military action beyond blockade.

The swiftest of wins seems unlikely. The US can send stuff to Ukraine for a land war all day and its still affecting its air and naval capacity that will win or loose the war over Taiwan. One thing Xi might need to consider aside from the fact his military has not fought a war in forever, is the one child policy. Back in the day old family friend got alternative sentencing to Marines and Nam so all his friends (including my father) went down to volunteer in solidarity. Thing is military was only willing to take one of two brothers same for another pair. One Child policy means XI army runs on what two generations of only children? In a place where elder care is still readily heavily based on your kid - a war that goes sideways could lead a s--t ton of dissent really fast. Not only by it onw admission its fertility rate is cratering and male birth selection only makes it worse than say the US or France hovering around replacement where we at least have the normal sex ratio.

Ukraine has been a very useful reconnaissance for Xi, and I think the lesson is leave the US tf alone for another decade at least. Even with a corpse president they are too much of a handful for China.

Not sure he really that decade to burn given his fake economic numbers.

---------------


@Papay

Very limited? Compared to whom? All the NATO and EU countries combined? Perhaps. But it still better to build your own weapons than begging countries on the other side of the world

Not really building many now is it - rather taking the old Soviet arsenal out of the fields as it were.

[Ludicus]

Not sure you can call him a fascist. A self serving political opportunist of the highest order...

With or whitout Netanyahu as Prime Minister, the Haaretz summarizes the problem. As Crimes of Apartheid Worsen, the Western Exceptionalism Toward Israel must End

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In this article, Simon Tisdall says the western alliance needs a plan to win the war: the plan is to transform all NATO into an openly offensive organization, once and for all. Ready for the final and definitive crusade in the war between good and evil, between democracies and autocracies, Nato faces an all-out fight with Putin. It must stop pulling its punches

Even when the fighting eventually stops, this renewed military, ideological, political and economic east-west confrontation looks set to continue indefinitely – and grow more deeply entrenched.
This question leads back to the fundamental dilemma of the “new Nato”. Is it still purely a defensive alliance? Or will its leaders accept the inherent logic of the emerging situation?
Does the west seek Russia’s defeat and a generational victory over autocracy and tyranny, or merely Ukraine’s liberation?

To help the crusade that Simon Tisdall demands, Biletsky teenagers have long been preparing for it with enthusiasm, and to go even further, “What is our slogan? we will conquer the whole world!”


(NBC, six years ago. )

The slogan “We will conquer the whole world” makes perfect sense. According to Borrel, the greatest gardener, “Gardeners must go to the jungle... Apart from conquering a space, you have to conquer the minds.”…although I don't think the slogan that is taught to the neo-Nazi teenagers is about the conquest of a psychological space.

More rational, and less prone to heroic crusades, the conservative British magazine “The Critic” asks on its cover: What if Russia wins? Reality check: Russia could win | Lucas Webber - The Critic

(…) The US-led West insists that Ukraine can take back all occupied territory and inflict enough damage to force Russia to quit. Washington and its allies have slapped heavy sanctions on Russia in hopes of strangling its economy, spur upward domestic anti-war pressure, and try to cause regime change in the Kremlin, with some even talking about Balkanizing the country. These goals seem far-fetched at the moment, given the Russian population’s support for the war, the protests fizzling out long ago, the sanctions failing to meet expectations, and Russia’s neighbourhood dominance on the escalation ladder.

Existential War

The Ukraine conflict is in large part a proxy war and many have called it such. Top American politicians and military authorities have overtly expounded their desire to knock Russia from the ranks of the great powers and weaken it as much as possible through war with Western-backed Ukrainian forces.
But in this particular arena, the balance of resolve favours Russia as it is fighting, in its own backyard, a war seen as existential. Russian motives in commencing the invasion have been widely mischaracterised by the Western press and politicians alike. Moreover, like them or loathe them, the issue of Russia’s conception of her vital interests has just been disregarded. And that’s analytically asinine.
There is no way to know exactly how this will play out, but what is certain is that things are about to get much worse for the people of Ukraine, many more thousands of people will be killed, and the country will take decades to recover (…)

---
There is a lot of talk about Putin's orcs, the new Sauron. There are also a few in Ukraine. Could it be because of climate change? an enlightening, extensive article, profusely illustrated,
Suicide missions, abuse, physical threats: International Legion fighters speak out against leadership’s misconduct

---
Edit,

Bakhmut: What will be the outcome of the battle? - DW

Bakhmut is of great strategic importance to both the Ukrainian and the Russian forces, says Marina Miron, a research fellow at the Centre for Military Ethics at King's College London. Miron believes that, if Russian troops capture the city, they will advance further, perhaps toward Kramatorsk.

"They would control important roads, cutting off the Ukrainian armed forces and making the defense much harder for them," says Miron. She warns that this would also undermine the morale of the Ukrainian troops, and could lead to Western partners losing confidence in the capabilities of the Ukrainian army.
Ralph Thiele, a retired German colonel who has served on the personal staff of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, agrees. "The Ukrainian side is basically compelled — also by its Western partners — to deliver successes. There has to be some sort of constant public justification for the huge amount of support being given to Ukraine," says Thiele.
Mike Martin, a researcher at King's College London, says Russia is persisting in its efforts to capture Bakhmut because it corresponds to Putin's stated war aim of, in his words, "liberating the Donbas." Martin explains: "If you look at the way the roads and the rail networks are arranged, there are two bigger settlements to the west of Bakhmut, but still in the Donbas: Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. And in order to take those bigger cities, which he needs to do to complete his strategic goal, he needs to take Bakhmut first."

…Thiele adds that the Russians also outnumber the Ukrainians near Bakhmut. "If we look at the overall situation, we see that there is far more on the Russian side, be it armored vehicles, tanks, artillery or planes," he says. The Ukrainians, meanwhile, are still waiting for Western military aid to arrive.

As far as aid is concerned, Thiele is not very optimistic. "When we see that the whole of Europe produces less ammunition for Ukraine in a month than Russia uses in a day, we can see how difficult it's going to be to get them the support they need."

He points out that the issue of tanks is also very difficult. "In public debate, people keep saying 'yes' to tanks. But the tanks have to get there somehow. They have to be driven there, but many of the bridges can't bear that weight. So it's difficult to get them there. If a tank breaks down or requires maintenance, it can't be done on the spot; it may have to be driven back 900 kilometers to Poland or Slovakia."
Might a ceasefire this year be possible?
"Everyone has an interest in this war coming to an end now, and of course there is pressure on both sides — especially on Ukraine, and perhaps now also on Russia through India and China," says Ralph Thiele. However, he believes that when people talk of "defeating Russia," this is "just a turn of phrase." Russia still has the capacity to greatly escalate the war — and not just with nuclear weapons. "This includes hypersonic weapons, which we don't even notice, but which make it possible for Putin to place a bomb on every desk in the world, without us being able to defend ourselves against it," Thiele warns.
He says it is now the West's job to prevent an escalation.

[conon394]

With or whitout Netanyahu as Prime Minister, the Haaretz summarizes the problem. As Crimes of Apartheid Worsen, the Western Exceptionalism Toward Israel must End

Still doesn't make him a fascist and still manages as far as I can read excuse the Palestinian leadership's long list of massive own goals. You know maybe making absolutely never going to happen maximal demands when Clinton was President and the Gulf Arabs still pretended to care about you and you know running you polity less corruptly and ineptly maybe you would not be in the boat of nobody giving a crap.

Biletsky teenagers have longbeen preparing for it with enthusiasm, and to go even further, “Whatis our slogan? we will conquer the whole world!”

Pretty sure I could make as creepy a video in the US by finding the right LDS, evangelical or NRA summer camp or random militia camp with the right edits on top.

I know you really want to carry for Putin on the Ukraine is festering hell hole of Nazis but umm not buying it.

More rational, and less prone to heroic crusades, the conservative British magazine “The Critic” asks on its cover: What if Russia wins? Reality check: Russia could win | Lucas Webber - The Critic

Jeez you really found somebody with a massive hard on for Russian victory this time .

"The US-led West understands that the war’s momentum is increasingly shifting in Russia’s favour"
"Most factors indicate that Russia will likely achieve some sort of favourable outcome in Ukraine"

really nice of you to not name them.

"As of now, things are looking grim for the Ukrainians as their defensive lines are crumbling under intense onslaught. The Russians have unquestionably regained the initiative,"

Umm where?

"bolstering their military industrial output"

I missed those new T-14s but maybe he means refurbishing museum pieces.

"and are making advances across sectionsof the entire front."

Umm sure ok I guess in his head.

"The rise of China makes this an infinitely trickier proposition, especially as regards Russia. Russia is holding a massive pool of mobilized and recruited forces in reserve along with an abundance of armor "

Umm oh no the rise of China for f-sake he might as well have said BRICS or something. Wait if Russia is advancing all across the front everywhere should not this this massive reserve be providing weight and creating a breakthrough?


Sorry Ludicus this guy needs to get a room

I do believe you have found the very first batch of people who think Bakhmut is important and can only really be important if the Ukraine judges the cost benefit ratio wrong and does not drop back to is prepared positions behind it in proper order.