Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Kyriakos]

A question: for how long are you (not asking anyone in particular) ok with the war going on?
Hopefully the answer isn't "indefinitely"/"as long as Russia keeps occupying any part of Ukraine".

[Muizer]

A question: for how long are you (not asking anyone in particular) ok with the war going on?
Hopefully the answer isn't "indefinitely"/"as long as Russia keeps occupying any part of Ukraine".

IMHO that is up to the Ukrainian people. I know that it isn't nearly as simple as it sounds. I do not think there's any doubt that when Russia invaded, the Ukrainian people wanted to fight. There is no obvious indication they have changed their mind, but ..... War creates its own reality.

The 'might' in the Ukraine now rests with those who are fully committed to the war. The question is, will they to listen to 'the people' when they signal they have had enough, or will they model themselves after their enemy and act like despots to keep going. And if the latter happens, will their western backers step in and say 'enough is enough' or will they support the regime to the hilt.

Honestly I fear the latter. I expect the western unanimity will shatter and once again we will see countries like France and Germany try to reign in the US, Britain, Poland and probably fail as they barge full steam ahead. The west is not unanimous in its aims. There are those who are willing to pay a price for peace and those who are not.

Ps. by 'paying a price' I do not mean one-sided concessions / appeasement. The current situation in the war certainly doesn't justify anything like that. I merely mean something that is a give and take. There is room for negotiation and Ukrainian territorial concessions are likely part of it. And yet even then Ukraine can still come out the winner, IMHO. if it were to become a member of the EU and NATO. Not saying that is likely to happen. It's just an example of a Russian concession that IMHO could justify Ukrainian territorial concessions.

[Kyriakos]

^Not sure about nato (probably they will be vetoed by the usual suspect), but also highly doubt Ukraine can enter the Eu.

[Muizer]

There's no doubt in my mind that any peace agreement will involve a lot of wheeling and dealing between many parties, not just the combatants, and not just concerning the borders of Ukraine and its status as a nation. This could end with an new Iron Curtain. In fact I think that is the course we're on anyway, regardless of what happens in Ukraine.

[Peresvet]

Russian army has lost up to half of key battle tanks, analysts estimate

Russia’s army is estimated to have lost nearly 40% of its prewar fleet of tanks after nine months of fighting in Ukraine, according to a count by the specialist thinktank the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS). Its headline count is that Russia’s number of tanks in its army have reduced by 38% from 2,927 to 1,800, while there have been particularly heavy losses of its workhorse T-72B3, an upgrade first delivered to its army in 2013.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/15/russian-army-has-lost-up-to-half-of-key-battle-tanks-analysts-estimate-ukraine

[Abdülmecid I]

44 posts deleted and a few notes/warnings distributed. As already mentioned multiple times, no insults and personal references are allowed. Aside from accumulating infraction points, repeat offenders will also be forum-banned from the Mudpit, so tread carefully.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

A question: for how long are you (not asking anyone in particular) ok with the war going on?
Hopefully the answer isn't "indefinitely"/"as long as Russia keeps occupying any part of Ukraine".

Until Russia leaves Ukraine.

[fkizz]

Now we have lost access to basically a continent's worth of cheap resources right next door. As well as decades of investments in pipes and so on. Tell me, how exactly is that a win?

It was a lose-lose scenario. Continent of cheap resources will also have to sell them even cheaper to a eurasian rival. EU will gradually adapt at some cost. But a war in eastern europe naturally worries/scares central europe. Such tensions make trade deals difficult, you often need 5-10 year agreements of deliveries.

[Alastor]

It was a lose-lose scenario. Continent of cheap resources will also have to sell them even cheaper to a eurasian rival. EU will gradually adapt at some cost. But a war in eastern europe naturally worries/scares central europe. Such tensions make trade deals difficult, you often need 5-10 year agreements of deliveries.

Of course it was lose-lose. But the point is I don't care about Russia losing, I care about the EU winning.

[fkizz]

Of course it was lose-lose. But the point is I don't care about Russia losing, I care about the EU winning.

Maybe not reflected in prices but what alternative EU had after war in Eastern Europe started? It's war at its doorstep, everyone gets alarmed and intimidated, nights with less sleep, priorities shifts towards preparing for an even more difficult scenario, safety measures become in demand.

[Kyriakos]

Until Russia leaves Ukraine.

It can't be made to leave it, and it has no incentive to either. So that's not a good plan, unless you just want to sell more weapons to Europe.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

It can't be made to leave it.

Of course it can. How many more hundreds of thousands of dead do you think Fascist Russia can take? Not many.

[Kyriakos]

Of course it can. How many more hundreds of thousands of dead do you think Fascist Russia can take? Not many.

More than the percentage to total population of dead that Ukraine can take. So I don't see it.

[Alastor]

That's another interesting article:
https://www.politico.eu/article/chin...ty-conference/

Apparently Winnie the Xi is to present a "peace plan" for Ukraine. I'm curious to see what that would entail. Generally speaking the stance of China is arguably more important than that of most. The way things will develop in Taiwan may very well be heavily affected by this mess in Eastern Europe.

[Peresvet]

Of course it can. How many more hundreds of thousands of dead do you think Fascist Russia can take? Not many.

Unfortunately , this war for many years, because Russia is big and have many cannon fodder and zombified population. And Ukraine can fight many years because EU and US will support her.

[Cyclops]

It can't be made to leave it,

That myth died with the VDV. Russia went home in 2014, after a clean sweep netted them Crimea. This time they are reeling but somehow they are going to take more?

and it has no incentive to either.

Several hundred thousand young Russian men preferred exile to going to Ukraine. The ones there have plenty of incentive to leave. In the next year they may not need to be asked.

So that's not a good plan, unless you just want to sell more weapons to Europe.

Its a great plan for the US, and they have both an appetite to sell weapons and destroy Russian combat capability. For Russia? Not so much, but they maybe didn't have a say in the plan after all.

Imagine a Russian leader delaying an invasion so China can have its Olympics unmolested. Comrade Stalin's ghost would be furious with Putin for his servility.

That's another interesting article:
https://www.politico.eu/article/chin...ty-conference/

Apparently Winnie the Xi is to present a "peace plan" for Ukraine. I'm curious to see what that would entail. Generally speaking the stance of China is arguably more important than that of most. The way things will develop in Taiwan may very well be heavily affected by this mess in Eastern Europe.

China obviously wants its detached territories returned. We've had fun trolling them with Hong Kong and Taiwan, but really that's Chinese territory and short of regime change, it should be handed back.

It would be a massive surrender for Washington because of the amount of propaganda points ploughed into "fighting for brave Taiwan's Democratic Tradition". For whatever reason the US has dug in on this one.

The upside would be fabulous, as a grateful China would probably through Moscow under the bus to grab that prize. The double whammy would be that only the Amur Basin would remain on Beijing's "to do" list.

Can't see it though, apparently the US is worried about more nuclear subs in the Pacific or something.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

More than the percentage to total population of dead that Ukraine can take. So I don't see it.

If Ukraine surrenders it loses 100% of its population, if Russia leaves nothing will happen to it. So no, I disagree. "When put against a corner, your options are to die or to die fighting. Almost every wild animal, and most people, will take the second option without a regret."

[StarDreamer]

Of course it was lose-lose. But the point is I don't care about Russia losing, I care about the EU winning.

You don't care about that. Quite frankly Russia winning would cause immense damage to world and European ecenomy and cause massive instability all over the world for decades to come. Unless you think the EU would win by the world going massively unstable with wars popping up all over the place.

[Peresvet]

You don't care about that. Quite frankly Russia winning would cause immense damage to world and European ecenomy and cause massive instability all over the world for decades to come. Unless you think the EU would win by the world going massively unstable with wars popping up all over the place.

Russia also suffers from the Putin regime and its victory will be the overthrow of Putin's power and the end of the war. The Russian economy is degrading and collapsing, many enterprises have been affected by sanctions, for example, automobile factories have almost stopped their work, small businesses are closing and leaving the country, many people have lost their jobs due to the departure of foreign companies, tens of thousands of Russians have died, the male population is declining and depopulation occurs. It is in the interests of the Russian people to quickly get rid of such a regime, which is slowly destroying Russia from within.

[Kyriakos]

If Ukraine surrenders it loses 100% of its population, if Russia leaves nothing will happen to it. So no, I disagree. "When put against a corner, your options are to die or to die fighting. Almost every wild animal, and most people, will take the second option without a regret."

That's not supported by anything either :/ Even if Russia wanted to - which by now it's clear it does not - it couldn't annex all of Ukraine. Too many hostiles. Their plan for some time now seems to be to annex a land corridor to Crimea and leave it at that, so they probably would agree to peace with keeping most of what they currently control.

Would that be a good deal for Ukraine? Of course not. But not due to a fear of full annexation.