View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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148. You may not vote on this poll
  • I support Ukraine fully.

    103 69.59%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.14%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.70%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    11 7.43%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.73%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.41%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #7241
    Vanoi's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Peresvet View Post
    The Russian army is not as weak as we would like. It has a large supply of weapons from the Soviet era, a lot of artillery and obsolete tanks, and even high-precision weapons are still there. They would not have been able to take Soledar and conduct a further offensive if they were weak. But the Russian army is still a formidable force, replenished with supplies and reserves throughout Russia. And the Ukrainian army is also not strong enough, it suffered heavy losses and now consists of many unmotivated and poorly trained mobilized soldiers, therefore, in principle, in many respects the forces of these armies are equivalent.
    Anyone can conduct an offensive using human waves of Wagner convicts. That's an example of a poor army. They are replenished with poorly trained conscripts. They use obsolete equipment because they don't have enough modern equipment or they have simply lost it. Pulling T-62s out of storage for use is a sign of desperation.

    Russia is supposed to be a modern army that could match any NATO military. And yet they struggle against a country that still uses Soviet tactics and doesn't have the same military capabilities. They are not supposed to be equal.

    In other news the US is taking the lead and is going to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/polit...ine/index.html

    I didn't see anything indicating how many the US would send. The article also claims Scholz has decided to send Leopards to Ukraine.

  2. #7242
    Peresvet's Avatar Civis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Vanoi View Post
    Anyone can conduct an offensive using human waves of Wagner convicts. That's an example of a poor army. They are replenished with poorly trained conscripts. They use obsolete equipment because they don't have enough modern equipment or they have simply lost it. Pulling T-62s out of storage for use is a sign of desperation.

    Russia is supposed to be a modern army that could match any NATO military. And yet they struggle against a country that still uses Soviet tactics and doesn't have the same military capabilities. They are not supposed to be equal.

    In other news the US is taking the lead and is going to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/polit...ine/index.html

    I didn't see anything indicating how many the US would send. The article also claims Scholz has decided to send Leopards to Ukraine.
    I personally communicate with people who serve in the Russian army and judge the situation there from people who are inside it. Yes, there are many problems, but it is far from only human waves of prisoners. Modern tanks T90 Proryv are used. https://t.me/ukraina_ru/127408
    lancet precision munitions - https://t.me/voenacher/38050 and other modern military technics. I would not underestimate the Russian army. Although I do not support russian military agression and wish defeat putin in the war. But it still remains a serious adversary for Ukraine, which needs more help from Western countries.
    Last edited by Peresvet; January 24, 2023 at 02:04 PM.
    I am Russian and I hate putin and war. Stop war in Ukraine.

  3. #7243
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    ^Better keep nato free of countries that invade/are dictatorial, but only if their name is Russia ^^
    NATO was founded to restrain the Soviet Union, an Imperial vehicle based on Russian national identity. The Soviet Union under Stalin made a pact with Hitler so it could attack many of its neighbours. Russia is the heir to a lot of Soviet infrastructure and ambitions. Since Putin took over it has attempted to reimpose something like the Soviet system, albeit in capitalist form. NATO still has a role to restrain this imperial ambition.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    That's my point, since Russia is so useless, it's a great wonder that they still hold around 1/5 of Ukraine's territory.
    It is brushed aside, of course, that Russia is using (essentially) only its own military, unlike Ukraine.
    Hitting civilian infrastructure isn't new either, happened in both those other equally noble wars you referred to.
    Russia isn't using just its own military. it is using mercenaries, and legacy Soviet equipment. It is getting aid from Iran, North Korea and above all China.

    Russia started with a fair whack of ground from the 2014 brigand raid: the biggest slab they pinched in February has been handed back to its rightful owners, so they have taken less in a year this time around than they did in a week last time.

    So the question is probably better rephrased "How come Russia, fighting unrestricted warfare with all conventional arms, has been unable to subdue a country they subdued in week last time around?" and the answer is Russian capability is largely based on legacy Soviet stocks and has been depleted. The VDV isn't coming back any time soon, nor is the Moskva. Russia has industrial superiority (modified by superior western aid and harsh western sanctions) and manpower.

    The West is allergic to land wars in Asia (anything east of the Bosphorus is Asia, I will die on that hill) and wants as little involvement as possible. Even the little help they have given (I don't think a single economy has gone over to a war footing outside Ukraine) is enough to completely stymie Russia. I get a strong sense the West has Putin on the rack, and he is selling his own arse one slice at a time to Beijing.

    The war is going the way the US wants, and not the way Russia wants. Russian propaganda can always try to reframe it as "4D chess, you will see" but we have seen.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  4. #7244
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    The West is allergic to land wars in Asia (anything east of the Bosphorus is Asia, I will die on that hill)
    I mean, that is literally the border to Asia, hardly a hill to be fought over
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  5. #7245
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Ukraine corruption scandal ousts top officials during war
    … given Ukraine’s rampant corruption…the wartime scandal could play into Moscow’s political attacks on the leadership in Kyiv.
    “To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize”. Voltaire.


    Burn or not to burn? Erdogan to Sweden: Don't expect Turkish support for NATO


    No one will win a protracted war in Ukraine

    Based on the negative consequences of a protracted conflict illustrated above, it is within our interest to bring this war to an end. Rather than doing so by dramatically escalating the war, we need to pair our military assistance with real moves towards a peace settlement in Ukraine.
    Six questions Western defense chiefs never seem to raise but should today

    The pressure is on to supply Ukraine more advanced weapons. How does this fit into a broader strategy to end the war?
    The following are the key questions they should be asking themselves — but likely are not.

    1. How do our plans for military assistance to Ukraine fit into our broader strategy for ending the war?
    2. Given the Biden administration’s justified desire to avoid a direct military conflict with Russia, what should the allies be doing to prevent an incremental slide into ever deeper U.S. involvement, as happened in Vietnam?
    3. What should the U.S. and NATO be doing to plan for surprise Russian moves, such as disabling satellites vital to U.S./Ukrainian command and control of precision-guided munitions?
    4. Are these partner governments prepared to back Ukraine to reconquer all the territory it has lost since 2014 — including Crimea and the eastern Donbas as suggested in this Wednesday New York Times article — even at the risk of Russia escalating towards war with NATO and the use of nuclear weapons?
    5. If not, at what stage and along what lines do they want Ukraine to call a halt, and what pressure are they prepared to bring to bear in order to achieve this?
    6. If neither side achieves a breakthrough and the war becomes a stalemate, at what stage will the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and the cost of supporting Ukraine necessitate the search for a ceasefire?
    Good questions but who cares,

    War Industry Looks Forward to “Multiyear Authority” in Ukraine

    …It is often said that in war there are no winners. But that has never really been true, certainly not in modern U.S. wars. From Vietnam to Korea, and Iraq to Afghanistan, the winner has always been the same. That victor also prevailed in the Cold War and will most certainly do so again throughout this new cold war that is being rapidly ushered into existence. The winner is the war industry.
    Perhaps more significant than Milley’s comments about negotiations was his assessment that a victory for Ukraine is likely unachievable on a purely military level. Already, some European officials are warning that the appetite in their countries to continue the war in Ukraine is waning and that “the double hit of trade disruption from U.S. subsidies and high energy prices risks turning public opinion against both the war effort and the transatlantic alliance.” As one senior European Union official told Politico, “The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons.”
    The NDAA now before Congress is a reminder of the prescience exhibited by President Dwight Eisenhower in his January 1961 farewell address. “This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience,” Eisenhower said. “We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications.” Eisenhower warned that “we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex.”
    --
    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    NATO was founded to restrain the Soviet Union, an Imperial vehicle based on Russian national identity.
    NATO was formed to restrain the USSR . Neither tsarist Russia nor the Soviet Union was a ethnically "Russian Empire". The Empire Strikes Out: Imperial Russia, “National” Identity

    Last edited by Ludicus; January 24, 2023 at 04:26 PM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
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    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  6. #7246
    Peresvet's Avatar Civis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    In the US presidential election, if they were held now, Donald Trump would receive a little more votes than current US President Joe Biden, according to a poll commissioned by Emerson College. 44% of respondents would vote for Trump, while 41% would vote for Biden. Another 10% would vote for another candidate, and 4% have not yet decided on a decision.

    There is a great danger that after the victory of Trump, a friend of Putin, support for Ukraine will end and the war will end in its defeat, and Putin will retain all his gains. Americans must do everything possible to prevent Trump from winning the election, and the best thing is to put him in jail.
    I am Russian and I hate putin and war. Stop war in Ukraine.

  7. #7247
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    I mean, that is literally the border to Asia, hardly a hill to be fought over
    My brother in Hellas there are people claiming the Urals as the line between Asia and Europe. SMDH.

    As a purist I say Asia Europe is an Hellenic juxtaposition. Globally Europe (however it is defined) is a peninsula of Asia not some continental peer. Culturally i like to be perverese and set scandinavia and the British Isles as extra-European colonies. The Mediterranean islands too, Sicily is a piece of Hellas that floated past Italy, its more Cyprus than Piedmont.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  8. #7248
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Peresvet View Post
    In the US presidential election, if they were held now, Donald Trump would receive a little more votes than current US President Joe Biden, according to a poll commissioned by Emerson College. 44% of respondents would vote for Trump, while 41% would vote for Biden. Another 10% would vote for another candidate, and 4% have not yet decided on a decision.

    There is a great danger that after the victory of Trump, a friend of Putin, support for Ukraine will end and the war will end in its defeat, and Putin will retain all his gains. Americans must do everything possible to prevent Trump from winning the election, and the best thing is to put him in jail.
    I would not worry too much about any poll taken now. Small poll and the only key takeaway is that Trump is the republican nominee for sure and a solid 40% of the republican base will back him. Democrats are fretting over maybe they need a younger candidate Biden should step aside what if DeSantis wins we really need a younger person etc. etc. You are just not going to get a good answer out of them - now. Biden was not the poll winner two years before last election either.

    Also you should consider who answers phone polls. I mean I am gen X in the US and I can only assume that potential polls never ever reach me because the numbers are some 1-800 type so I wait and see if they leave voice mail, spam risk or a number I don't know and again I let it go to voice mail. Pretty much what my wife does and certainly what my kids at do a 13-21... so I would guess in any such poll is a really skewed sample of the us population that reflexively answers their phone all the time (re older for example)
    Last edited by conon394; January 25, 2023 at 11:59 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  9. #7249
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    The Soviet Union under Stalin made a pact with Hitler so it could attack many of its neighbours.
    True.Both France and the UK had signed a bilateral defense treaty with Poland that expressly applied only to Germany. Neither the British nor the French government declared war against the USSR. But a fact remains: the USSR played a decisive (underrated in the West) role in defeating Nazi Germany Soviet Union in World War II - International Relations

    Just out curiosity, do you know that Tsarist Russia was quite supportive of the American Union on the international stage, and vice versa? From HistoryNet: Your Authoritative Source for U.S. & World History
    On April 4, 1866, nearly a year after the assassination of Abraham Lincoln, Russian Czar Alexander II narrowly escaped a similar fate. Within a few weeks, the U.S. Congress adopted a joint resolution expressing its “deep regret of the attempt made upon the life of the Emperor of Russia by an enemy of emancipation.”
    At Congress’ request, President Andrew Johnson dispatched a special envoy—Assistant Navy Secretary Gustavus Fox—to hand-deliver the resolution to Alexander. In early August, a squadron of American naval vessels, led by the ironclad USS Miantonomoh, dropped anchor off the Baltic port of Kronstadt, where a 21-gun salute and harbor festooned with U.S. flags awaited them.
    Do you know that when the American Civil War threatened to divide the US, Russia alone among the European great powers gave no aid or comfort to the seceding states? It did a profound effect in some ways on the outcome of the war. Highly detailed, From the National Museum of Civil War Medicine: The Imperial Russian Navy in the American Civil War - YouTube
    ---
    A curiosity: do you know that when a large fire broke out in the Financial District of San Francisco on Oct. 23, 1863, six of the Russian sailors died fighting the fire and were buried in the Mare Island cemetery? Mare Island honors sailors who died in 1863 fire - HTC

    The irony.-The San Francisco Examiner writes, on January 26, 1994.
    130 years after S.F. blaze, a memorial service points out new era of friendship...For us today, when the relations between the United States of America and the new democratic Russia are wonderfully improving
    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    The war is going the way the US wants, and not the way Russia wants
    I' not quite sure about that. After a months-long bloody battle, Ukraine's army admits losing Soledar to Russian forces
    Running out of ammo
    in 2023, the Ukrainian army may run out of munitions before it runs out of fight. Based on current usage of ammunition in the war, production of munitions is increasingly lagging battlefield needs. Most of Ukraine's use of NATO 155mm artillery ammunition has been drawn from war stocks, not production lines.
    Germany's armed forces have 'two days' of ammunition


    --
    Edit.
    An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine's armed forces.The Economist. (15-12-2022)

    Highlights

    just as during the second world war, I have no doubt about it, it is most likely that somewhere beyond the Urals, they are preparing new resources. They are 100% being prepared. Ammunition is being prepared, not very good stuff, but still.
    So the next problem that we have is, first of all, to hold this line and not lose any more ground. It’s crucial.
    Our troops are all tied up in battles now, they are bleeding. They are bleeding and are being held together solely by courage, heroism and the ability of their commanders to keep the situation under control.

    The second, very important strategic task for us is to create reserves and prepare for the war, which may take place in February, at best in March, and at worst at the end of January. It may start not in Donbas, but in the direction of Kyiv, in the direction of Belarus, I do not rule out the southern direction as well.
    And if [the power grid] is destroyed…Without water, light and heat, can we talk about preparing reserves to keep fighting?
    We need tanks, we need apcs [armoured personnel carriers], infantry fighting vehicles. And we need ammunition. Please note, I’m not talking about f-16s right now.

    TE
    : Can we talk about air defence?

    Now we have a ratio of 0.76. Russians are using this 0.76 coefficient of efficacy when they plan their attacks. This means that instead of 76 missiles, they launch 100. And 24 get through and reach their target. And what do two missiles do to a power station? It won’t work for two years. So it has to be built up.
    We are talking about the scale of World War One…that is what Antony Radakin [Britain’s top soldier] told me. When I told him that the British Army fired a million shells in World War One, I was told, “We will lose Europe. We will have nothing to live on if you fire that many shells.” When they say, “You get 50,000 shells”, the people who count the money faint. The biggest problem is that they really don’t have it.

    Russian mobilisation has worked. It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. We estimate that they have a reserve of 1.2m-1.5m people… The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.
    What will happen if Russia finds itself in a position of irreversible advantage? What will happen in case of a decisive Ukrainian advantage? the WW3?
    From a previous link,
    If the intention is to keep this war a limited, regional one between two neighboring states with NATO playing only a peripheral, supportive role, all of these trend lines point in the exact opposite direction.
    Unless officials make a concerted effort to de-escalate and pursue a diplomatic track — and prominent voices in media and politics create the political space for them to do it — Biden’s vow to avoid World War Three will mean as much as President Johnson’s 1964 promise not to “send American boys nine or ten thousand miles away from home to do what Asian boys ought to be doing for themselves.”
    Last edited by Ludicus; January 25, 2023 at 11:07 AM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  10. #7250
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Good questions but who cares,
    I don't if I had more time today I would insert FDR and helping the UK in WW2 to make it clear what a silly list this is.

    IN any oh now now Russia is going to launch a surprise attack on our satellites to add the the fake nuke threat... gosh I'm really scared now best Ukraine capitulate, to being a Russian puppet and can we toss in the Baltic just keep the czar happy?

    Given how comparatively small Putin's capacity in current satellites is and his very limited ability to replace them the fact of his being blown out of orbit in short order in response makes this a non point.

    Just out curiosity, do you know that Tsarist Russia was quite supportive of the American Union...
    Yes to all your points and better than you. But so what? That was quite a while ago and had a lot more to do with issues at the time with the UK and France and not some deep seated love for the US.

    So the Ukraine made a tactical withdraw in the only place Russia is concentrating its forces and using rather recklessly?


    "in 2023, the Ukrainian army may run out of munitions before it runs out of fight. Based on current usage of ammunition in the war, production of munitions is increasingly lagging battlefield needs. Most of Ukraine's use of NATO 155mm artillery ammunition has been drawn from war stocks, not production lines."

    You know Russia would not be dustingoff T62s or using S-300 as long range indiscriminate armillary if its planning for a long was any better not sure of yourpoint. Unless its just nobody NATO Russia or probably China really had the stockpiles and production surge capacity on hand to fight a year long protracted high intensity war on a scale not witnessed since Vietnam. If you want to worry Ludicus worry about the fact that if China moves on Taiwan the decisions made by the US and China as a result of this likely mean both sides will stocked for a long fight.


    Everyone and their brother has known that since the 90s or maybe the 80s. Pretty sure there is joke about in James Dunnigan's How to Make war that I read as an Undergrad in collage back in the day that is a lot days ago.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  11. #7251
    Peresvet's Avatar Civis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    https://t.me/boris_rozhin/76381

    https://t.me/boris_rozhin/76378

    Force mobilisation in Ukraine.


    I do not support the Putin regime, but the authorities in Ukraine treat people in the same way and mobilize them by force into the army, no different from Putin's dictatorship with its forced conscription.
    Last edited by Peresvet; January 25, 2023 at 01:04 PM.
    I am Russian and I hate putin and war. Stop war in Ukraine.

  12. #7252
    Mithradates's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    For those who don't follow the events, Soledar was not taken by the Russian Army, it was a Wagner operation, and for that, Prigozhin had to use up almost all of his convict troops to make this happen. This was a one-off trick because the recruitment drive in Russian prisons is reportedly drying up, by now everyone has a clear picture of what happens to prisoners who go to fight to Ukraine.

    Since summer Soledar is the first city that Russia was able to finally capture, I guess now they will focus on Bakhmut again.
    Even if they could capture Bakhmut, there are several defense lines to the west of the city that have been fortified for eight years, it's ridiculously pointless what the Russian army is doing, they are throwing away thousands of people for nothing.



    -
    Anyway


  13. #7253
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    My brother in Hellas there are people claiming the Urals as the line between Asia and Europe. SMDH.

    As a purist I say Asia Europe is an Hellenic juxtaposition. Globally Europe (however it is defined) is a peninsula of Asia not some continental peer. Culturally i like to be perverese and set scandinavia and the British Isles as extra-European colonies. The Mediterranean islands too, Sicily is a piece of Hellas that floated past Italy, its more Cyprus than Piedmont.
    The Urals are a border too, clearly the continent has borders both north and south ^^
    And yes, back in the time of ancient Greece, the full geography of Asia wasn't known, and it was often theorized that the great northern rivers (eg the Bolga) were all one massive river which split Europe from Asia there (the Caucasus was known, of course, just not seen as a border).
    It's not like ancient Greeks identified Europe as something superior; it sort of was (apart from the Greek world) the most backward of the known continents. At different times the most important Greek centers were in Europe, Asia Minor (eg Pergamos) or Africa (Alexandria).

    Besides, I was just trying to make a light-hearted comment, you should know I don't antagonize you (I like you anyway)

    On other news: at least now we know Russia took over Solendar (some time ago). Maybe western tanks are needed, after all.
    Last edited by Kyriakos; January 25, 2023 at 02:07 PM.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  14. #7254
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    On other news: at least now we know Russia took over Solendar (some time ago). Maybe western tanks are needed, after all.
    A resounding success for the Wagner group I am sure Ukraine will fall to its knees any minute now.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  15. #7255

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    The lifecycle of certain views regarding the tanks:

    Ukraine getting Western tanks is...
    • inconsequential.
    • a burden on untrained Ukrainian soldiers.
    • easy targets for the Russians.
    • something they shouldn't hope about as Germany won't budge.
    • too late too little.
    • not enough to change the tide.
    • a major threat to Russians.
    • proof of NATO fighting Russia.
    • a major escalation threatening Russia's existence.
    • all of the above!
    The Armenian Issue

  16. #7256

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I think inconsequential is a good summary. Maybe “publicity stunt” is less flattering. Afaik the handful of Leos aren’t getting there until 2024 and are inferior to even T72s in some ways. US will have to build out an entire supply chain and strip off top secret stuff from the Abrams just to get 30 or so to Ukraine on a similar timeline. If Russia is losing 10-20 tanks a day we can suppose Ukrainian losses are similar. I suppose longer term, getting Ukrainians experience with NATO tanks is useful, but it seems like there are more relevant things to do, like funding production of cold war hardware and ammo in Eastern Europe so Ukraine can service the what they have, for example. A bunch more bradleys would probably do more good than a few Abrams anyway.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  17. #7257
    EmperorBatman999's Avatar I say, what, what?
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Peresvet View Post
    In the US presidential election, if they were held now, Donald Trump would receive a little more votes than current US President Joe Biden, according to a poll commissioned by Emerson College. 44% of respondents would vote for Trump, while 41% would vote for Biden. Another 10% would vote for another candidate, and 4% have not yet decided on a decision.

    There is a great danger that after the victory of Trump, a friend of Putin, support for Ukraine will end and the war will end in its defeat, and Putin will retain all his gains. Americans must do everything possible to prevent Trump from winning the election, and the best thing is to put him in jail.
    Unlike Russia, the United States has (at least nominally) an active constitution which the public and both political parties generally accept and obey. You cannot just simply arrest somebody because they want to be president, or else we are no better than Putin.

    Many accusations have been made against Trump, some with more validity (and evidence) than others, but he must first have an indictment that is grounded in solid evidence, evidence so strong, even most Republicans would be convinced. Even the findings of the Mar Al Lago raid didn't seem to provide enough of a testimony for the Department of Justice to act and issue a formal warrant for Trump's arrest.

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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Peresvet View Post
    I do not support the Putin regime, but the authorities in Ukraine treat people in the same way and mobilize them by force into the army, no different from Putin's dictatorship with its forced conscription.
    Mobilizing is a perfectly normal and legitimate thing to do when a smaller country is invaded by a larger one. That is what we do in the event of an invasion, and it would be immoral not to.

    Russia mobilizing to fight a completely unnecessary war of conquest and Ukraine doing so to defend themselves are not morally equal in any way.

  19. #7259
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Septentrionalis View Post
    Mobilizing is a perfectly normal and legitimate thing to do when a smaller country is invaded by a larger one. That is what we do in the event of an invasion, and it would be immoral not to.

    Russia mobilizing to fight a completely unnecessary war of conquest and Ukraine doing so to defend themselves are not morally equal in any way.
    Pretty ironclad summary.

    I'd add concerning the Russian "partial mobilisation" that as I understand it (and I do not speak Russian so I am relying on scanty English language interpretations) the executive can only increase the call up of conscripts in time of war, giving the lie to Putins "Special Military Operation" nonsense.

    Its a war, and it's an unprincipled war of aggression. It is founded on lies and unless the Russian offensive capacity is blunted it leads to further wars.

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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    I'd add concerning the Russian "partial mobilisation" that as I understand it (and I do not speak Russian so I am relying on scanty English language interpretations) the executive can only increase the call up of conscripts in time of war, giving the lie to Putins "Special Military Operation" nonsense.
    I think you are right. On my behalf, I would like to point out a very important conceptual distinction. Words like "mobilization" and "conscription" can mean very different things depending on the society.

    In my country, all eligible men deemed fit to serve that are not conscientous objectors are trained and the majority of them get an assigned task and unit in the event of mobilization. They are a part of our 230,000 strong reserve of troops that are equipped with the most modern gear and are mostly well under middle age with the exception of some officers and specialists. I am still in that number and I know where I will serve and what I will be doing if Russia invades.

    As people age or are not sufficiently capable, they are moved from that reserve into secondary reserves that can be called into service to support the primary reserves, and that force brings the total numbers up to around 600,000.

    The objectors and a good number of specialists in civil life working in professions crucial to war-time economy and functioning of the society are not called into service but are still obligated to serve in the war effort. Such as if you work in the manufacturing of things that will have increased demand during a war, you will not be stationed anywhere with a military unit but you will be mandated to keep manufacturing those things. And those people have already been made aware that such will be their job in the event of a war.

    That kind of carefully-planned, society-wide mobilization scheme and conscription in the sense of providing adequate training already in times of peace has nothing in common with dragging anti-war protestors off the streets and prisoners out of jails and sending them as untrained cannon fodder to die in Ukraine at the dictator's behest.
    Last edited by Septentrionalis; January 26, 2023 at 03:09 PM.

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