Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Peresvet]

Until the Western countries change their legislation and prohibit the trade and operation of any companies of their countries in Russia, Russia will have money for the war and the destruction of Western countries' equipment. Why send Ukraine equipment and weapons that are destroyed with the money of the same Western countries that Russia receives? I ask you to protest in your countries and demand that the governments ban trade with the Putin regime.

[mishkin]

Western countries we are capitalists. We have a minimum of shame that makes us collaborate to a greater or lesser extent, but do not ask our companies to not take advantage of any opportunity to enrich themselves.

We are ruled by power/geopolitics/the economy. do not appeal to our morals

[mishkin]

Where are you from?

Spain. We are very sad to see your suffering on the news, but we are concerned about the price of oil and diesel. And we don't even mobilize for issues that directly affect us (the deterioration of public health for example). Sorry, but do not expect anything from us.

[Septentrionalis]

So this ongoing 'Germany are cosy with Russia' narrative is grossly exaggerated, and likely politically unhelpful to maintain.

There is a reason for why that narrative is going on. Germany has all along been undermining efforts to take decisive action against Russia and is one of the enablers of Putin. Right now they actively using their veto to prevent other nations from supplying their own tanks to Ukraine, which is nothing else but working in Russia's favor. It has been clear all along that Germany is willing to sacrifice Ukrainians for Russian gas.

As for aid, Germany hasn't given that much given the size of its economy. It didn't make the top 11 in the graph below because it is number 17. Also the majority of support it has given to Ukraine is not of the military kind.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

In contribution to its defense and, by extension the defense of Europe, Germany has not been anywhere near the NATO standard in about 30 years. I think it is fair to say that Germany is a liability and an embarrassment to EU and NATO.

[Papay]

After the war Ukraine will present an opportunity for EU states and their companies as EU will be financing rebuilding efforts and a lot of European companies will be the ones to partake in it.

By the way, anyone spotted this massive Russian offensive that was supposed to start a week ago as Stario claimed?

You wont see it in pro-western channels for propaganda reasons but the front has collapsed in multiple fronts

[PointOfViewGun]

You wont see it in pro-western channels for propaganda reasons but the front has collapsed in multiple fronts

Did it though? Apart from few villages that Russia managed to took over after months of fighting and loss of extensive troops/equipment there haven't been much of a change. This is not a pro-Western news channels issue. This is a Russian army incompetence issue. In reality, much of the Russian army is digging in not to give back more losses while the Wagner group is fighting for their survival and relevance which is what gives them inconsequential gains with extreme losses.

[Papay]

Did it though? Apart from few villages that Russia managed to took over after months of fighting and loss of extensive troops/equipment there haven't been much of a change. This is not a pro-Western news channels issue. This is a Russian army incompetence issue. In reality, much of the Russian army is digging in not to give back more losses while the Wagner group is fighting for their survival and relevance which is what gives them inconsequential gains with extreme losses.

Ukrainian military repelled Russian attacks near Novoselivske, Ploschanka and Chervonopopivka of Luhansk region and Bilohorivka, Rozdolivka, Vasukivka, Krasna Hora, Yahidne, Bakhmut, Predtechyne, Vodyane and Maryinka of Donetsk region , - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report - liveuamap.com

We will see when the Russian attack losses steam what their territorial gains are. Liveukraine map(which is pro-Ukrainian) shows that there are battles just 6 Km outside of Konstantinovska. This means that the Russians have advanced considerably. Add this to the loss of Soledar, that makes Bakhmut being in an operational encirclment.

[Kyriakos]

I do recall reading about Bakhmut being explicitly stated as the next goal, by the Russian army command (after the fall of Soledar).
What would be a good site for live map update? (nothing can be entirely accurate, but any site which is arguably good?)

[PointOfViewGun]

Ukrainian military repelled Russian attacks near Novoselivske, Ploschanka and Chervonopopivka of Luhansk region and Bilohorivka, Rozdolivka, Vasukivka, Krasna Hora, Yahidne, Bakhmut, Predtechyne, Vodyane and Maryinka of Donetsk region , - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report - liveuamap.com

We will see when the Russian attack losses steam what their territorial gains are. Liveukraine map(which is pro-Ukrainian) shows that there are battles just 6 Km outside of Konstantinovska. This means that the Russians have advanced considerably. Add this to the loss of Soledar, that makes Bakhmut being in an operational encirclment.

It doesn't mean Russians have advanced considerably. They have only managed to advance a depth of one or two villages in the last few months after heavy losses. They can not encircle Bakhmut without capturing Chasiv Yar to the West or Krasna Hora to the North. None of what you say, even if true, which its not, would indicate a collapse of the front.

[Sar1n]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I wonder how accurate that chart is. Many countries, especially those close to Ukraine, contributed significantly through private channels, organizing housing for refugees and crowdfunding military and humanitarian aid before governments managed to react. And then there's indirect aid, for example Netherlands that is co-funding the project to modernize large number T-72 in Czech Republic and other such projects.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

There are even "Russians" who think this way, oddly enough. They even explain in detail why this is "desirable".Leonid Bershidsky is a Bloomberg colunist, of course.
Is Breaking Up Russia the Only Way to End Its Imperialism?

There were even "Portugese" who thought Portugal should leave Angola and Mozambique, can you imagine? People thinking their country should give up its colonies? Truly unthinkable.

[StarDreamer]

There is a reason for why that narrative is going on. Germany has all along been undermining efforts to take decisive action against Russia and is one of the enablers of Putin. Right now they actively using their veto to prevent other nations from supplying their own tanks to Ukraine, which is nothing else but working in Russia's favor. It has been clear all along that Germany is willing to sacrifice Ukrainians for Russian gas.

As for aid, Germany hasn't given that much given the size of its economy. It didn't make the top 11 in the graph below because it is number 17. Also the majority of support it has given to Ukraine is not of the military kind.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

In contribution to its defense and, by extension the defense of Europe, Germany has not been anywhere near the NATO standard in about 30 years. I think it is fair to say that Germany is a liability and an embarrassment to EU and NATO.

I was disappointed with Scholz befroe this war started and he has been stumbling ever since, drunkenly stepping this way and that, but ever too short even when he manages to hit the right direction. Schlapp-schwanz Scholz is what I would call him, an utter buffoon that is a discredit to Germany.

[conon394]

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-...kraine-2054992
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-ho...elp/a-64160984

Germany is a significant supplier of aid to Ukraine... second only to the US in terms of value. While it might not be all that Ukraine wants, and their decisions around tanks might not align with the desires of other countries, they're certainly not 'siding with the fascists'.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly expressed thanks to Germany for that aid, so it's clear that Ukraine, while frustrated at what is supplied, don't consider that their second largest supplier of arms is siding with their enemy.

So while I appreciate the frustration some might express, and share the opinion that additional arms - especially tanks - is an important signal that the ongoing war is futile and unwinnable for Putin, I would argue that long range weapons are potentially more impactful and it's the US that won't send them, as are aircraft and it's the US that wont send them either.

So this ongoing 'Germany are cosy with Russia' narrative is grossly exaggerated, and likely politically unhelpful to maintain. Making it publicly zero sum like this makes Scholz dig-in rather than relent on what he thinks is the best path.

I think you are working a bit to hard to defend the German Chancellor. In broad strokes yes the US and all NATO have sorta backed into aiding Ukraine on a sliding scale. But the US is for example on the verge of upping the range of Ukraine's fires with the GLSDB. But also be fair as we saw with the stinger the US has nether infinite wide pipelines in production nor stockpiles to draw down and the US unlike Germany does have other concerns - China, North Korea, Iran etc. The ATACMS rounds the US has are actually a really small stockpile and the replacement is not even being produced yet. Of course the US could and maybe should transfer the cluster munition version but not sure how the optics on that are. Compare again I don't have the figure as handy as the HIMARS rounds but I suspect the amount of Excalibur rounds the US has handed over is not exactly making the some people in the pentagon happy and suspect the replacement process is not as easy as clicking on amazon one click The problem with Germany dragging on the Leopard is a conventual useful tool. Its logistical and repair chain would be short and the people giving them are not risking anything by doing so and can provided immediately. And now is the time they need to be provided so Ukraine has time to train crews.

[Mithradates]

...the Leopard is a conventual useful tool. Its logistical and repair chain would be short and the people giving them are not risking anything by doing so and can provided immediately. And now is the time they need to be provided so Ukraine has time to train crews.

Ukraine has agreed with some countries (one of them is Portugal hehe) that own Leopard 2 tanks to train Ukrainian crews on them even before Germany makes a decision on their transfer, so no time loss there

[Septentrionalis]

I wonder how accurate that chart is. Many countries, especially those close to Ukraine, contributed significantly through private channels, organizing housing for refugees and crowdfunding military and humanitarian aid before governments managed to react. And then there's indirect aid, for example Netherlands that is co-funding the project to modernize large number T-72 in Czech Republic and other such projects.

The principles and more results are very well accessible on their website. As I understood it, only government help is included and not private donations. Indirect military aid such as earmarked funds for buying and upgrading equipment is included and statistics on that are also available separately.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-a...pport-tracker/

It was recently in the news that Estonian government support exceeded 1 % of their GNP that still stands at 0.95 % in the graph. I am well connected with Estonians and know that in addition to their extremely generous support and actual sticking to NATO spending standards and recently even exceeding them (unlike Germany), there is a great deal of private support. All that from country with the historical disadvantage of having been annexed by the Soviet Union.

As for Germany, I don't think I can buy any more German products until they stop colluding with the enemy while others are paying dearly to put an end to this imperialism.

[Kyriakos]

I was disappointed with Scholz befroe this war started and he has been stumbling ever since, drunkenly stepping this way and that, but ever too short even when he manages to hit the right direction. Schlapp-schwanz Scholz is what I would call him, an utter buffoon that is a discredit to Germany.

Wasn't some former ambassador of Ukraine to Germany sacked over calling a high official (though iirc it was the president?) a "sad sausage"?

[StarDreamer]

Wasn't some former ambassador of Ukraine to Germany sacked over calling a high official (though iirc it was the president?) a "sad sausage"?

They might have, but then again I'm not an ambassador. So I think anyone would take me calling him that as anything other than humor to deal with his indecisive, often misguided decision-making. And I think the name quite flows for him.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

There is a reason for why that narrative is going on. Germany has all along been undermining efforts to take decisive action against Russia and is one of the enablers of Putin. Right now they actively using their veto to prevent other nations from supplying their own tanks to Ukraine, which is nothing else but working in Russia's favor. It has been clear all along that Germany is willing to sacrifice Ukrainians for Russian gas.

As for aid, Germany hasn't given that much given the size of its economy. It didn't make the top 11 in the graph below because it is number 17. Also the majority of support it has given to Ukraine is not of the military kind.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

In contribution to its defense and, by extension the defense of Europe, Germany has not been anywhere near the NATO standard in about 30 years. I think it is fair to say that Germany is a liability and an embarrassment to EU and NATO.

That is simply .

Since the outbreak of the war, the German Government has made available more than 12.5 billion euro in bilateral support; this aid includes a substantial winter assistance programme, helping those who have fled Ukraine, and assisting efforts to investigate war crimes.

https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/a...darity/2513994

Germany is also the largest contributor to the refinancing fund of the European Peace Facility (EPF), which so far has enabled the provision of 3.1 billion euro from across Europe; these funds are to be made available between 2022 and 2026, to support the delivery of military equipment from EU member states to the Ukrainian armed forces.

Funding for the security capacity building initiative amounts to a total of 2.2 billion Euros for the year 2023 (after 2 billion Euros for 2022).

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Delivered military support to Ukraine:
(Changes compared to the previous week in bold)

• 107 border protection vehicles* (before: 95)
• 4 mobile and protected mine clearing systems*
• 168 mobile heating systems*
• 20 rocket launchers 70mm on pick-up trucks with rockets*
• 15 armoured recovery vehicles*
• 13 tank transporter tractor M1070 Oshkosh*
• 7 tracked and remote controlled infantry vehicles for support tasks*
• 143 Pick-ups*
• 216 generators
• 35 load-handling trucks 8x8
• 26 reconnaissance drones*
• 36 ambulances*
• 36.400 wool blankets
• 12 heavy duty trailer trucks*
• 55 anti-drone sensors and jammers*
• 30 drone detection systems*
• 6 lift trucks*
• Iris-T SLM missiles*
• 60,000 rounds ammunition 40mm*
• 18,500 projectiles 155mm
• 18 load-handling trucks 8x8
• 50 MRAP vehicles DINGO
• 3 bridge-laying tanks BEAVER*
• 10 unmanned surface vessels*
• 14,000 sleeping bags
• Mi-24 spare parts*
• ammunition for multiple rocket launchers MARS II
• spare parts for heavy machine gun M2
• 30 MG3 for armoured recovery vehicles
• 20 frequency range extensions for anti-drone devices*
• 17 heavy and medium bridge systems*
• 5 multiple rocket launchers MARS II with ammunition
• 14 self-propelled howitzers Panzerhaubitze 2000 (joint project with the Netherlands)
• air defence system Iris-T SLM*
• 200 tents
• 116.000 winter jackets
• 80.000 winter trousers
• 240.000 winter hats
• 100,000 first aid kits*
• 405,000 pre-packaged military Meals Ready
• 30 self-propelled anti-aircraft guns GEPARD including circa 6.000 rounds of ammunition*
• 67 fridges for medical material
• counter battery radar system COBRA*
• 4,000 rounds practice ammunitions for self-propelled anti-aircraft guns
• 54 M113 armoured personnel carriers (systems of Denmark, upgrades financed by Germany)*
• 53,000 rounds ammunitions for self-propelled anti-aircraft guns
• 20 laser target designators*
• 3,000 anti-tank weapons Panzerfaust 3 with 900 firing devices
• 14,900 anti-tank mines
• 500 Man Portable Air Defense Systems STINGER
• 2,700 Man Portable Air Defense Systems STRELA
• 22 million rounds of ammunition for fire arms
• 50 bunker buster missiles
• 100 machine gun MG3 with 500 spare barrels and breechblocks
• 100,000 hand grenades
• 5,300 explosive charges
• 100,000 m detonating cord and 100.000 detonators
• 350,000 detonators
• 10 anti-drone guns*
• 100 auto-injector devices
• 28,000 combat helmets
• 15 palettes military clothing
• 280 vehicles (trucks, minibuses, all-terrain vehicles)
• 6 palettes material for explosive ordnance disposal
• 125 binoculars
• 1,200 hospital beds
• 18 palettes medical material, 60 surgical lights
• protective clothing, surgical masks
• 600 safety glasses
• 1 radio frequency system
• 3,000 field telephones with 5.000 cable reels and carrying straps
• 1 field hospital (joint project with Estonia)*
• 353 night vision goggles*
• 12 electronic anti-drone devices*
• 165 field glasses*
• medical material (inter alia back packs, compression bandages)
• 38 laser range finders*
• Diesel and gasoline (ongoing deliveries)*
• 10 tons AdBlue*
• 500 medical gauzes*
• MiG-29 spare parts*
• 30 protected vehicles*
• 7,944 man-portable anti-tank weapons RGW 90 Matador*
• 6 mobile decontamination vehicles HEP 70 including decontamination material
• 10 HMMWV (8x ground radar capability, 2x jamming/anti drone capability)*
• 7 radio jammers*
• 8 mobile ground surveillance radars and thermal imaging cameras*
• 4 mobile and protected mine clearing systems*
• 1 high frequency unit with equipment*

Military support to Ukraine in planning/in execution
(due to security concerns, the Federal Government abstains from providing details on transportation modalities and dates until after handover)

• 2 air surveillance radars*
• 40 infantry fighting vehicles MARDER with ammunition (from Bundeswehr and industry stocks)
• air defence system PATRIOT with missiles
• 100,000 first aid kits*
• 114 reconnaissance drones*
• 17 mobile heating systems*
• 26 load-handling trucks 15t
• 2 Pick-up
• 18 wheeled self-propelled howitzers RCH 155*
• 90 drone detection systems*
• 2 hangar tents*
• 7 load-handling trucks 8x6*
• 7 self-propelled anti-aircraft guns GEPARD*
• 7 tracked and remote controlled infantry vehicles for support tasks*
• 6 mobile and protected mine clearing systems*
• Iris-T SLM missiles*
• 42 mine clearing tanks*
• 3 mobile, remote controlled and protected mine clearing systems*
• 5 mobile reconnaissance systems (on vehicles)
• 393 border protection vehicles*
• 1,020 projectiles 155mm*
• 156,000 rounds ammunition 40mm*
• 5 armoured engineer vehicles
• 3 heavy and medium bridge systems*
• 16 self-propelled howitzer Zuzana 2* (joint project with Denmark and Norway)
• 78 heavy duty trailer trucks*
• 3 air defence system IRIS-T SLM*
• 12 communications electronic scanner/jammer systems*
• field hospital (role 2)*
• 20 frequency range extensions for anti-drone devices*
• 14 truck tractor trains and 14 semi-trailers*
• 2 tractors and 4 trailers*
• 10 protected vehicles*
• vehicle decontamination system
• 5,032 man-portable anti-tank weapons
• 200 trucks*
• 13 bridge-laying tanks BEAVER*

The total value of individual licenses issued by the Federal Government for the export of military goods in the period from January 1, 2022 to January 16, 2023 amounts to 2.278.902.521 Euro. The total license value includes the goods listed above insofar as their export is subject to licensing requirements under German foreign trade laws. This is not the case for all of the goods listed above. In order to speed up the processing of certain deliveries, the Federal Government has also eased certain licensing processes, e.g. with regard to military protective goods. These deliveries are also not included in the total license value. The values stated for used material from the German Armed Forces are also based on current values which can be significantly lower than the corresponding values for new or replacement goods. The total license value includes the goods regardless of how their procurement and delivery were financed. For security reasons, the Federal Government does not provide further details until the goods have been delivered.

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992

In August 2022 952.000 Ukrainian refugees lived in Germany (now 999.000).

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/202...428_12411.html

Germany was one of the founding nations in 1950, who built up the EU.

It paid 25,1 billion € to EU in 2021.

What did Finland to help Ukraine?

Donating some DDR Howitzers donated to Finland by Germany?

How many refugees live there?

And now 12 old Leopards, which then must be maintained by Germany.

Big words no deeds so far.

[Vanoi]

12 Leopards is better than no Leopards.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

12 Leopards are useless without regulary supply of ammunition and spare parts, who will provide them Finland?

I guess not.

And Ukraine has some 300 - 500 T 72 and T90, they need no pr actions. They need air defence to not let their Infrastructure destroyed.