View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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  • I support Ukraine fully.

    103 69.59%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.14%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.70%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    11 7.43%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.73%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.41%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #7141
    Peresvet's Avatar Civis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Conon I agree with you that it would help Ukraine, the point is it's more important (to Germany) to keep the LeoII price where it is than to help Ukraine.
    Otherwise they'd have no issue giving LeoII to Ukraine- can you think of any other?
    This is the elementary cowardice of Scholz as the leader of Germany, he does not want an escalation with Russia, to a certain level of conflict, he is afraid of a nuclear war and Russian strikes against Germany, it is impossible to explain anything else that Germany does not want to give leopard tanks to Ukraine.
    I am Russian and I hate putin and war. Stop war in Ukraine.

  2. #7142
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    the point is it's more important (to Germany) to keep the LeoII price where it is than to help Ukraine.
    Your point remains illogical. First there are only so many options for a top 5 or MTB on the market. The Leopard 2 price is not going to go anywhere. Combat losses are combat losses. Ant MBT - anyone caught flat footed at the wrong angle is going to get blown away by another. That just down to situational awareness and bad luck and crew skill. Poland did not Leopard because they decided its a piece of crap we go US And ROK. They moved because the US had a better delivery time table and the ROK was cool with IP sharing such that Poland will building its in the long-term. Both of which were not happening with is planed upgrade path with Germany.

    Note the poor use by Turkey did not deter new sales

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...ed-syria-95396

    They were older versions and Turkey used them poorly. Critically however they retain range and accurate on move fire that exceeds most of the tanks if not all fighting in Ukraine now.
    Last edited by conon394; January 20, 2023 at 11:06 AM.
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    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  3. #7143
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I personally find it very much impossible that Scholz thinks Russia will directly attack Germany.
    On the other hand, the very realistic hit to Germany's military industry is logically on his mind.

    Conon: what you said is like arguing the austrian rifle's market value didn't fall after their war with Prussia.
    Last edited by Kyriakos; January 20, 2023 at 10:59 AM.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
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  4. #7144

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    What you think has no basis whatsoever.
    The Armenian Issue

  5. #7145
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Germany had no big sales of Leopard II in the last years. On the contrary massive kills of T 72 or T 90 would increase its prices, which is quite realistic with the weak tower armour of T 72.

    Its more a problem how to convince the 45% population, which won't Support the Delivery of Main Battle Tanks to Ukraine because of russia nuke threat.
    Cause tomorrow is a brand-new day
    And tomorrow you'll be on your way
    Don't give a damn about what other people say
    Because tomorrow is a brand-new day


  6. #7146
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    I personally find it very much impossible that Scholz thinks Russia will directly attack Germany.
    On the other hand, the very realistic hit to Germany's military industry is logically on his mind.

    Conon: what you said is like arguing the austrian rifle's market value didn't fall after their war with Prussia.
    First I would much rather have a Spencer repeating rifle (and a box of preloaded tubes that is what 77 rounds (that is serious fire suppression before you have to start pushing individual bullets in the tube magazine) while your Prussian is stilling hoping the needle action on his gun does not snap so I am underwhelmed by your example.

    No its not. You seem to arguing from the point of view that the the market rate of the Leopard is that its invulnerable. Thus any damaged or destroyed Leopards means its value fall. Further you are implying that sales of Leopards are so profoundly critical to the German economy it would impact decision making. Neither is true.

    Nobody does not think the M1A2 (current SEPs), Merkava or Leopard (current versions) or Challenger (are not better than any MBT fighting in Ukraine now. And nobody really believes in T-14 vapor ware. What market do you suppose Germany would loose from some mission kills in Ukraine? The only customer Germany has lost in reality is Poland and that is clearly because Poland wanted delivery faster than Germany was willing to to do (as one might expect prioritizing its own up grades first - fair) and Poland wanted series IP transfer and future ability to build in Poland/IP transfer. Germany was like no and Poland bought US for immediate supply and ROK for the IP transfer. But the Poland is outlier they want stuff now and they want a robust. Reality is that has absolutely no impact on sales to Croatia or Slovenia etc.

    Leopards, Merkava and M1s have all suffered damage and lose in combat there is no myth Germany is potentially keeping alive. I just don't think that can be the basis for the the current German leadership foot dragging. And if you going to make it show the balance of outstanding tank bids in the world market that are not done and closed .
    Last edited by conon394; January 20, 2023 at 01:45 PM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  7. #7147
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    First I would much rather have a Spencer repeating rifle (and a box of preloaded tubes that is what 77 rounds (that is serious fire suppression before you have to start pushing individual bullets in the tube magazine) while your Prussian is stilling hoping the needle action on his gun does not snap so I am underwhelmed by your example.

    No its not. You seem to arguing from the point of view that the the market rate of the Leopard is that its invulnerable. Thus any damaged or destroyed Leopards means its value fall. Further you are implying that sales of Leopards are so profoundly critical to the German economy it would impact decision making. Neither is true.

    Nobody does not think the M1A2 (current SEPs), Merkava or Leopard (current versions) or Challenger (are not better than any MBT fighting in Ukraine now. And nobody really believes in T-14 vapor ware. What market do you suppose Germany would loose from some mission kills in Ukraine? The only customer Germany has lost in reality is Poland and that is clearly because Poland wanted delivery faster than Germany was willing to to do (as one might expect prioritizing its own up grades first - fair) and Poland wanted series IP transfer and future ability to build in Poland/IP transfer. Germany was like no and Poland bought US for immediate supply and ROK for the IP transfer. But the Poland is outlier they want stuff now and they want a robust. Reality is that has absolutely no impact on sales to Croatia or Slovenia etc.

    Leopards, Merkava and M1s have all suffered damage and lose in combat there is no myth Germany is potentially keeping alive. I just don't think that can be the basis for the the current German leadership foot dragging. And if you going to make it show the balance of outstanding tank bids in the world market that are not don e and closed .
    If anything the reluctance that Germany has in sending tanks to Ukraine is going to hurt them in the long run. Why buy Leopard 2 tanks when it comes with strings attached on what you can do with them and the fact that if you want anymore Leopard 2 s or upgrades for them you have to wait on the Germans. Who hasn't produced a Leopard 2 tanks in decades.

    Poland is definitely not going to be the last European country to buy American M1s or other foreign tanks. Germans are going to have their own incident similar to what happened with Australia and France soon.
    Last edited by Vanoi; January 20, 2023 at 01:42 PM.

  8. #7148
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Vanoi View Post
    If anything the reluctance that Germany has in sending tanks to Ukraine is going to hurt them in the long run. Why buy Leopard 2 tanks when it comes with strings attached on what you can do with them and the fact that if you want anymore Leopard 2 s or upgrades for them you have to wait on the Germans. Who hasn't produced a Leopard 2 tanks in decades.

    Poland is definitely not going to be the last European country to buy American M1s or other foreign tanks. Germans are going to have their own incident similar to what happened woth Australia and France soon.
    Part of the problem might be the German/French plans both for a new MBT and new Fighter both seem invested in both plans so how much effort is there for keeping the pipeline open for the Leopard - which seems to have been allowed to atrophy.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  9. #7149
    Vanoi's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Part of the problem might be the German/French plans both for a new MBT and new Fighter both seem invested in both plans so how much effort is there for keeping the pipeline open for the Leopard - which seems to have been allowed to atrophy.
    Hey if France and Germany wanna develop a new tank together that's fine. But as you said they've allowed the Leopards to atrophy. Countries in Europe like Poland want tanks now. Reliable tanks from a reliable partner and in Poland's case, the ability to produce these tanks themselves. If Germany doesn't want to bite, someone else will.

  10. #7150
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    First I would much rather have a Spencer repeating rifle (and a box of preloaded tubes that is what 77 rounds (that is serious fire suppression before you have to start pushing individual bullets in the tube magazine) while your Prussian is stilling hoping the needle action on his gun does not snap so I am underwhelmed by your example.

    No its not. You seem to arguing from the point of view that the the market rate of the Leopard is that its invulnerable. Thus any damaged or destroyed Leopards means its value fall. Further you are implying that sales of Leopards are so profoundly critical to the German economy it would impact decision making. Neither is true.

    Nobody does not think the M1A2 (current SEPs), Merkava or Leopard (current versions) or Challenger (are not better than any MBT fighting in Ukraine now. And nobody really believes in T-14 vapor ware. What market do you suppose Germany would loose from some mission kills in Ukraine? The only customer Germany has lost in reality is Poland and that is clearly because Poland wanted delivery faster than Germany was willing to to do (as one might expect prioritizing its own up grades first - fair) and Poland wanted series IP transfer and future ability to build in Poland/IP transfer. Germany was like no and Poland bought US for immediate supply and ROK for the IP transfer. But the Poland is outlier they want stuff now and they want a robust. Reality is that has absolutely no impact on sales to Croatia or Slovenia etc.

    Leopards, Merkava and M1s have all suffered damage and lose in combat there is no myth Germany is potentially keeping alive. I just don't think that can be the basis for the the current German leadership foot dragging. And if you going to make it show the balance of outstanding tank bids in the world market that are not done and closed .
    Ok, so then the reason Germany doesn't want to send is because it is afraid it will be attacked by Russia. Which makes it curious that Scholz says they would send LeoII if US also sends Abraams
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  11. #7151
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    German leadership has pushed to the point of nobody caring.
    Who is "nobody"? the German citizens? check the polls, previous post,with a slight majority against sending Leopard 2 to Ukraine.
    According to Lloyd Austin "Germany is a reliable ally and has been for a very long time," US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters when pressed on Berlin's role. "I truly believe that they'll continue to be a reliable ally going forward. He noted that Germany hosted "39,000 of my troops," as well as civilian dependents.
    ---
    Ramstein: no decision on German tanks for Ukraine.Berlin not yet approving its Leopard 2 tanks for delivery to Ukraine. As expected, Defiant Germany denies blocking Leopard tank deliveries

    Speaking to reporters at a meeting of NATO and defence leaders at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany, Pistorius denied Berlin was the sole holdout after Poland and other countries said they were waiting for Germany to lift its veto
    --
    Quote Originally Posted by Peresvet View Post
    This is the elementary cowardice of Scholz as the leader of Germany, he does not want an escalation with Russia, to a certain level of conflict, he is afraid of a nuclear war
    With all due respect, and not referring directly to you, what is remarkable is that the delusion of some in the EU (not so much in the US) think there are no red lines.
    Last edited by Ludicus; January 20, 2023 at 02:39 PM.
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  12. #7152
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    @Kyriakos

    Quick answer really I was looking for a OT turn to the Spencer rifle being clearly superior to the Needle gun... but life says I need to get the house in shape as my daughter is having her friends over for an all day game day tomorrow and pretty sure my wife will in the removing balls frame of mind if the house is not pristine when her friends and possibly their parents show up. I will follow up on my thoughts on the German delay later.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  13. #7153
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Three days ago, Scholz had already said "Nous agissons toujours avec nos alliés et amis – nous n'y allons jamais seuls” -We always act together with our allies and friends - we never go alone"
    No Abrams, no Leopards. Guerre en Ukraine : Olaf Scholz veut une décision collective
    A wise decision.
    ---
    Edit,
    Quote Originally Posted by Peresvet View Post
    participate in the change of the Putin regime and the formation of new authorities in Russia, and I am also going to do this.
    If you can suddenly turn an autocracy into a democracy, in a country so large and so diverse, my congratulations. Anarchy is the most likely outcome. But that won't stop Dick Cheney's old dream - to cut Russia into several smaller countries - from persisting, staying alive, whatever regime Russia has or will have. It is a problem that any Russian regime (democratic or non-democratic) will have to face. The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, also known as the U.S. Helsinki Commission, is an independent commission of the U.S. Federal Government. From Washington DC,




    There are even "Russians" who think this way, oddly enough. They even explain in detail why this is "desirable".Leonid Bershidsky is a Bloomberg colunist, of course.
    Is Breaking Up Russia the Only Way to End Its Imperialism?
    Last edited by Ludicus; January 20, 2023 at 04:11 PM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  14. #7154

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    At end of the day it's the quality of the Leaderships, staff planning, quality of the soldier, quality of training - Russia owns all of these areas...
    Generals dying in the front line trying to get reluctant troops to move on, columns running out of gas on the way to Kiev on a trip that to many is a commute, desertions, sending untrained civilians and convicts to the front line, escaping soldiers seeking asylum in western countries and Lord knows what else.
    Last edited by Abdülmecid I; January 21, 2023 at 03:53 AM. Reason: Personal.

  15. #7155

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    I hope not many believe that, otherwise things will get to a nuclear winter faster than anticipated.
    Pretty much any nuclear expert worth their salt will tell you that submitting to nuclear blackmail is far more risky than not doing so. That is a Pandora's box you do not want to open, because submitting to rogue states dictating things will only increase the likelihood of future nuclear blackmail and will, even in the event of no nuclear exchange, legitimize all kinds of violations of the international order.

    Russia is a weak superpower on its way out of glory and losing its credibility, and their empty nuclear threats should not be taken seriously except by confirming that using them will mark the end of Russia altogether. Of course all sorts of Russian agents and sympathizers will time and again remind us that opposing their criminal ambitions will risk a nuclear war, because such is in the interest of a failing superpower that cannot achieve its goals by conventional means.

    Get out of Ukraine and there will be no war. Nuclear or otherwise.

  16. #7156
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Septentrionalis View Post
    Pretty much any nuclear expert worth their salt will tell you that submitting to nuclear blackmail is far more risky than not doing so.
    Both US and Russia have backed down to nuclear blackmail in the past. Not seeing how "this time is different" rings true.
    But I do hope no nukes will start to fly, for if that happens there is no reset, and things will become a lot worse very fast - and not just for Russia.

    Of course there's also Japan capitulating - though some do claim (and it may be true) that they did so not due to threat of more nukes by the US, but Russia entering the war and keeping what it'd conquer.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  17. #7157
    Peresvet's Avatar Civis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Three days ago, Scholz had already said "Nous agissons toujours avec nos alliés et amis – nous n'y allons jamais seuls” -We always act together with our allies and friends - we never go alone"
    No Abrams, no Leopards. Guerre en Ukraine : Olaf Scholz veut une décision collective
    A wise decision.
    ---
    Edit,


    If you can suddenly turn an autocracy into a democracy, in a country so large and so diverse, my congratulations. Anarchy is the most likely outcome. But that won't stop Dick Cheney's old dream - to cut Russia into several smaller countries - from persisting, staying alive, whatever regime Russia has or will have. It is a problem that any Russian regime (democratic or non-democratic) will have to face. The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, also known as the U.S. Helsinki Commission, is an independent commission of the U.S. Federal Government. From Washington DC,




    There are even "Russians" who think this way, oddly enough. They even explain in detail why this is "desirable".Leonid Bershidsky is a Bloomberg colunist, of course.
    Is Breaking Up Russia the Only Way to End Its Imperialism?
    Russia has the opportunity to recreate the democratic system without collapse, which was already in the period of Yeltsin's rule. In addition, Russia has traditions of democracy, and historically justified ones. They date back to the Novgorod Republic, which occupied a large territory in the north of Rus' for a long time, but was destroyed by the totalitarian Muscovy. There was still a short period of the Provisional Government. But still, despite the limitations of democratic traditions in Russia, their revival after the fall of the Putin regime is inevitable.
    I am Russian and I hate putin and war. Stop war in Ukraine.

  18. #7158

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Both US and Russia have backed down to nuclear blackmail in the past. Not seeing how "this time is different" rings true.
    Never heard of such a case. Do tell us more!

    EDIT: I even read the Wikipedia article on nuclear blackmail, and there was no mention of such in the history of nuclear blackmail section. Surely you are just not saying that because it is useful to your pro-Russian agenda?
    Last edited by Septentrionalis; January 21, 2023 at 03:16 AM.

  19. #7159

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Whenever there is a great conflict going on, Germany seems to want to side with the fascists. I predict that western countries are going think twice about buying German weapons systems from here on out. It is a huge risk that Germany decides to buddy up with the enemy and not supply or support those systems in a time of crisis.

    I wonder for how long US is going to pay for Germany's defense if Germany is this reluctant to cooperate even when it counts the most. NATO looks about as weak as ever right now.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

  20. #7160
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Septentrionalis View Post
    Whenever there is a great conflict going on, Germany seems to want to side with the fascists. I predict that western countries are going think twice about buying German weapons systems from here on out. It is a huge risk that Germany decides to buddy up with the enemy and not supply or support those systems in a time of crisis.

    I wonder for how long US is going to pay for Germany's defense if Germany is this reluctant to cooperate even when it counts the most. NATO looks about as weak as ever right now.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-...kraine-2054992
    https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-ho...elp/a-64160984

    Germany is a significant supplier of aid to Ukraine... second only to the US in terms of value. While it might not be all that Ukraine wants, and their decisions around tanks might not align with the desires of other countries, they're certainly not 'siding with the fascists'.

    Zelenskyy has repeatedly expressed thanks to Germany for that aid, so it's clear that Ukraine, while frustrated at what is supplied, don't consider that their second largest supplier of arms is siding with their enemy.

    So while I appreciate the frustration some might express, and share the opinion that additional arms - especially tanks - is an important signal that the ongoing war is futile and unwinnable for Putin, I would argue that long range weapons are potentially more impactful and it's the US that won't send them, as are aircraft and it's the US that wont send them either.

    So this ongoing 'Germany are cosy with Russia' narrative is grossly exaggerated, and likely politically unhelpful to maintain. Making it publicly zero sum like this makes Scholz dig-in rather than relent on what he thinks is the best path.
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