Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Mithradates]

Because Russia doesn't want to win, it just doesn't.

Today, there is a general split in pro-Russian camp. Pessimists-realists, they are minority, and mil-rats(военкрыса), basically your good friends war journos and experts on the TV(unsurprising) and in the TG. What permeates the discussion are "negoshies"/договорняки. Strange occurences of Roman Abramóvich, Medvedchúk and Kózak being main intermediaries for negotiations. See the wheat-deal was not about Russia's international image, it was about Russia's money, remember: the gas pipe through Ukraine still functions, ammonium pipe functions too, the wheat, much of it goes to Turkey, almost all of the Azov "extraction" was "negotiated", Ukraine recieved almost everyone from the guys Russia captured at Azov-Steel. Now, the same will happen witj Soledar. See, the Western Ukraine does not experience any serious bombardment whose consequences were pretty much overcome, no bridges are hurt, the flow of Western help is not interrupted in any way. Two biggest realists expressed the following view of the situation:
Putin and his friends hope to somehow end the war, they readily concede and stop the action for "negoshies" advised by the "Big Guys"(Oligarchs).
Or Putin is some how a psy op by the US and he mirrors what Hussein did which eventually makes Russia defensless before the US missiles and NATO ground forces. Russia will crumble very soon and completely.

Yes, deals like money for wheat, prisoners for prisoners can be negotiated but I dont see what Russia could offer in exchange for the occupied territories, just stopping hostilites wont be enough. Western-Ukraine isnt spared because of a deal, it is spared because the Russian army doesnt have the means to bomb them anymore.

Last week, France, Germany and the US announced the upcoming delivery of AXM-10 RC, Bradley and Marder fighting vehicles, respectively. They are not yet American Abrams or German Leopard 2, but it’s a new level of Western aid to Ukraine.

Leopard 2s From Poland. Challenger 2s From The United Kingdom.

We have taken the decision to contribute a first package of tanks, a company of Leopard tanks, which, I hope, together with other companies of Leopard and other tanks that will be offered by other countries will .... be able to strengthen Ukraine’s defense,” Duda said.

We just need to know when, not if, Poland will send 200,000 men to the battlefield in what will be the prelude to a world catastrophe in an existential war for Russia and Ukraine.

Poland is an aggressor now?

[Loyt]

Because Russia doesn't want to win, it just doesn't.

Nah, your arguments only show that Russia is unable to win, not that it doesn't want to. Putin (and his HQ/pro-war advisers) overestimated themselfs and underestimated Ukraine, and thus got themselfs in a bad situation.
Problem is - Putins ambitions don't let him to back off, and Russia can probably extends this war for a long time still.

[Coughdrop addict]

Poland is an aggressor now?

It's a pretty common belief in Russian apologists circles that all of NATO (and possible all that is not sacred Russia) are just itching for any excuse to invade Russia out of envy of it's thriving economy, very high standard of living, amazing scientific and cultural achievements, bright future, and above all it's genius and handsome and oh so humble leader.

Which coincidentally is exactly what North Koreans are taught to think about their totalitarian hellhole's place in the world.

[Kyriakos]

Unlike North Korea, though, Russia is larger than some continents (including Europe, half of which is in Russia) ^^
I fear the war will end only when another begins.

[conon394]

A significant majority of the Crimean population chose a “Customs Union with Russia, Belarusand Kazakhstan”

You know I wonder was the question preceded by a serious of history questions elucidating the fact that at the fall of the USSR both Poland and Ukraine had roughly the same per capita GDP (in fact Ukraine was tad ahead). But now Poland's per capita GDP is well over times greater than Ukraine's. Also that Poland aggressively joined both NATO and EU and left the Russia orbit? Or that by staying Russia orbit Ukraine has managed to be almost very nearly as corrupt as Russia. Were as Poland is just a tad behind Portugal.

Last week, France, Germany and the US announced the upcoming delivery of AXM-10 RC, Bradley and Marder fighting vehicles, respectively. They are not yet American Abrams or German Leopard 2, but it’s a new level of Western aid to Ukraine. A significant number of Ukrainian pilots have been in Texas since September for training with American F-15 and F-16 fighters. And now, Ukrainians to start training on Patriot missiles in US
The Financial Times summarizes in an editorial “The goal for 2023 must be to give Kyiv all the aid it needs to bring the conflict to an end — on its terms”. Kiev's terms are those that imply the total defeat of Russia.

Meanwhile, Washington applauds, ecstatically, Meet Europe's coming military superpower: Poland - POLITICO

Your objects to this?

Germany now the black sheep of the "family," takes a back seat in Washington's preferences

You do realize the systemic advantages Germany gains by the US dollar being the de facto world reserve currency and US debt being the de facto absolute save reservoir for money and the US nuclear shield and the US backing of NATO. Wow amazing the US might be exited that Poland is planning on having a real army.

Not huge fan of Politco for example.

"Even as Washington has welcomed Poland’s defense spending pledges, there are also questions about whether Warsaw will really follow through, as well as frustration that the country is turning to South Korea for some of its biggest purchases."

I find that really questionable. Poland's tossing about some real large aspirational numbers that realistically nobody can supply and at the top end may never be realized. Not its got say the same announced numbers for HIMARS and some of the Korean buys. What it really says is Poland is not interested in the latest German/French cooperation on tanks or aircraft. And that it thinks the US and Korea will be more consistent supplies and in Korea somebody willing to share way more IP than Germany. Also the FA-50 are probably a cheap backstop. The ROKs planned upgrades my well turn them into solid light fighters and Poland can probably get them now. I've no doubt their F-16 will get the upgrade/life extension to what the V status - but the backlog on that is quite long. Realistically Poland ordered about all it can from the US, Korea is only supplying what the US simply does not have the supply chain for and as the article notes the US almost certainly values a well armed Poland now over lost sales in 2035.

We just need to know when, not if, Poland will send 200,000 men to the battlefield in what will be the prelude to a world catastrophe in an existential war for Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky says, “There will be no World War III. It's not a trilogy”.
The use of the term trilogy comes from the fact that Zelensky constantly quotes from "Lord of de Rings". But I can't imagine how Sauron could lose this war which is now existential for Russia and Ukraine.

Aside from your general desire to appease Putin at no supposed cost to the EU I really not sure what you mean here.



---------------
@Mithradates

Poland is an aggressor now?

Well yes obviously as a clear American puppet it gets the trait of sub agency (at US discretion) and thus is another vulture circling poor victimized Russia. I bet if Ludicus tries hard enough he can find some radical crank in the Polish legislature who demanded Poland retake parts of Belarus that were in the old Polish republic.

[Cyclops]

Unlike North Korea, though, Russia is larger than some continents (including Europe, half of which is in Russia) ^^
I fear the war will end only when another begins.

Special operation, you mean?

Russia can end this any time. If they choose to pour out the blood of their young men, that is Putin's call. They are not able to start any other Spercial Operations at present, they lack the tools to win this one, another front would be an open door for their opponents.

People seem to assume Russia is der Ewige Bär, somehow an inexhaustible and relentless reservoir of win. Its not. The merest acquaintance with history shows this. Russian polities have been strong political entities on their own turf and have expanded into weakened neighbours opportunistically. This invasion is opportunistic, but the neighbor was strengthened: this is more like Moldavia in 1711 9which ailed despie the Hospodar's treason), or Finland 1940 than Poland 1772.

Russian polities have also suffered periods of decline when isolation has led to economic and tech lags, and the centralized state has become weakened by corruption and unclear leadership. The Muscovite state nearly collapsed in the mid 1600's when the Poles put a Czar into the Kremlin. If Russia expands this conflict they don't get an automatic "activate Bogadir Horde" event, they probably get 1905, or if its really bad, 1917.

[Peresvet]

Special operation, you mean?

Russia can end this any time. If they choose to pour out the blood of their young men, that is Putin's call. They are not able to start any other Spercial Operations at present, they lack the tools to win this one, another front would be an open door for their opponents.

People seem to assume Russia is der Ewige Bär, somehow an inexhaustible and relentless reservoir of win. Its not. The merest acquaintance with history shows this. Russian polities have been strong political entities on their own turf and have expanded into weakened neighbours opportunistically. This invasion is opportunistic, but the neighbor was strengthened: this is more like Moldavia in 1711 9which ailed despie the Hospodar's treason), or Finland 1940 than Poland 1772.

Russian polities have also suffered periods of decline when isolation has led to economic and tech lags, and the centralized state has become weakened by corruption and unclear leadership. The Muscovite state nearly collapsed in the mid 1600's when the Poles put a Czar into the Kremlin. If Russia expands this conflict they don't get an automatic "activate Bogadir Horde" event, they probably get 1905, or if its really bad, 1917.

Unfortunately, Russia's imperial ambitions have always been supported throughout history by money from trade with Europe. European countries, instead of pumping Russia with easy money from resources, instead of after the invasion of Georgia in 2008, the first conflict that showed that Russia would try to restore the Soviet Union to its former borders, completely stop buying Russian gas and oil, continued to trade with Russia. Putin spent this money not on improving the standard of living of the population of Russia, but on rearming the army and expanding the repressive structures of the police, the national guard - Rosgvardia, the FSB and others. And besides, the Western countries practically did not help us in any way - the Russian opposition, the liberals, who were forced to fight the regime in unequal conditions. Now history itself has shown that the West has made a mistake in all of this. And now it's too late, when essentially a big European war has begun, which has already affected even the territory of Poland, where civilians died from missiles.

[Kyriakos]

Some news, or "news", announcements by Russia of taking over a town, but not confirmed by western outlets. At any rate I read it is a small town, but (as usual) in the statement it is presented as important for the supply system of Ukraine's army at the front.
If this is like the Winter war, useful to recall that ended with a strategic win by Finland, but Finland still had to cede territories.

[Septentrionalis]

At any rate I read it is a small town, but (as usual) in the statement it is presented as important for the supply system of Ukraine's army at the front.

With so many bridges destroyed in the conflict, I think it is credible that there are very few working supply routes in many places. That would also create highly important and vulnerable bottlenecks for troop and goods transport.

Now that you mentioned Finland, Finns used bottlenecks like that successfully against the Soviets. They were created by the country being full of thick woods that are untraversible by motorized units except through roads that can be easily blocked by the defenders so they can force the enemy into mined roads and ambushes.

[Kyriakos]

^

Here is a Reuters article on the town status: https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrain...nt-2023-01-09/

"[...]Kyiv and the West have played down the town's significance, saying Moscow sacrificed wave upon wave of soldiers and mercenaries in a pointless fight for a bombed-out wasteland, unlikely to affect the wider war except insofar as the huge losses have sapped manpower on both sides.But the capture of the town has taken on an outsized importance as it would, if confirmed, give Moscow a trophy for one of the bloodiest campaigns of the war following major battlefield setbacks throughout the second half of 2022.
"The capture of Soledar was made possible by the constant bombardment of the enemy by assault and army aviation, missile forces and artillery of a grouping of Russian forces," Moscow's defence ministry said."

Also: "CNN said on its website that a reporting team just outside the town could hear mortar and rocket fire on Friday afternoon and saw Ukrainian forces ferrying troops in what appeared to be an organised pullback."

Tbh, playing down the importance of the town can only mean one thing: Russia advanced there.

[Ludicus]

Leopard 2s From Poland. ..

A new surprise every day. Maybe, probably, but not yet...

A lot will now depend on what Poland actually does: When asked on Thursday whether Warsaw had already asked Berlin for permission to donate its Leopards to Kyiv, a spokesperson for Habeck’s economy ministry referred to a prior statement about the government not being aware of any requests... Duda’s remarks about an “international coalition” indicate the Polish leader might not be willing to go alone in sending his country’s tanks to Ukraine

A pertinent question is, why doesn't Germany send its own made tanks? Well, Germany fell into disgrace because its “shameful display”, according to Us officials.
Meet Europe's coming military superpower: Poland - POLITICO
Berlin’s endless debates over how to resurrect its military and lack of a strategic culture have hampered its effectiveness as a partner, Gressel said, referring to Berlin’s reputation for sitting back and relaxing while allies, in particular the U.S., do the heavy lifting on defense.

Poland is an aggressor now?

Your question makes no sense, because it has nothing to do with what I said: “We just need to know when, not if, Poland will send 200,000 men to the battlefield in what will be the prelude to a world catastrophe”
Poland seems to be eager to do it. The overwhelming majority of ordinary people understands that if Poland, or any other NATO country, were to send troops to Ukraine, there would be a world war. That is why the US refuses to do so.

--

Here is a Reuters article on the town status: https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrain...nt-2023-01-09/

"[...]Kyiv and the West have played down the town's significance,

We are being fed a lot of propaganda about this war on both sides. John Kirby, of U.S. National Security Council, said on 12 January that "even if both Bakhmut and Soledar fall to the Russians, it's not going to have a strategic impact on the war itself"

When we lose, defeats, strange as it may seem, have no impact.

[PointOfViewGun]

The importance of Bakhmut was created solely by the Wagner group as they wanted to prove that they were useful. After months of fighting and losing thousands upon thousands they managed to capture the town next to it, Soledar. Bakhmut remains under Ukrainian control.

[fkizz]

We are being fed a lot of propaganda about this war on both sides[...]
When we lose, defeats, strange as it may seem, have no impact.

Because there's difference between tactics and strategy. But confusion made by propaganda machines intentionally mixes the two.

[Stario]

I think that rashists who hope that the US will get fatigued and abandon Ukraine any day now forget just how long the US can remain in such conflict, hell it sat in Afghanistan for 20 years.

Ye USA lost in Afghanistan ( Taliban now rules the country), and the murican backed Kurds are about to get kicked out of Syria because again USA is not doing but talking after promising to support them.
Now lets go all the way back to Vietnam...
If any lesson to be learned here is that if you're dumb enough to ally yourself w murica you're going to get screwed (genuinely feel bad for the average Ukranian Joe right now), Ukraine will get defeated absolutely...

Besides being obviously false, Russia is in no position to complain about minorities' linguistic rights. Russia is and has been for a very long time one of the worst offenders. Linguistic minorities have very few rights in Russia and they are quickly disappearing, which is obviously the plan as well. Total russification.

Ukraine wanted to "Ukraine'ize" the ethnic russians in ukraine and that's simply not going to happen.
Don't think Russia is interested in the Ukranian parts of Ukraine as there would be too much resistance from every (few million) average Ukranian Joe.
RUSSIA will however take the pro-Russian east side of Ukraine and possibly Odesa too. And probably w little resistance from population as it's majority pro-russian/ethnically Russian. Only resistance will come from US/NATO led Ukranian armed forces.

[antaeus]

Stario. 1/5 of Ukraine's army are ethnic Russians. Ukraine's president speaks Russian at home. You, like Putin, are inventing an 'other' because it suits your narrative. Go home. You're drunk.

[Loyt]

Ukraine wanted to "Ukraine'ize" the ethnic russians in ukraine and that's simply not going to happen.

Learning ukrainian in schools - such a tragedy and horrible future. Russian chauvinists can't even imagine learning other language as good thing, they only need russian and want everyone around to only use russian.

Don't think Russia is interested in the Ukranian parts of Ukraine as there would be too much resistance from every (few million) average Ukranian Joe.

So current resistance in "claimed by Russia, but controlled by Ukraine" lands is not too much?

RUSSIA will however take the pro-Russian east side of Ukraine and possibly Odesa too. And probably w little resistance from population as it's majority pro-russian/ethnically Russian.

Majority of population in those region are not ethnically russians tho. That Russia planning to do with them? "Turn them into russians and kill those, who doesn't want to" as they often claim in theirs prime political shows?
And they are not pro-russian anymore too, Putin killed such sentiments with his own hands. Kherson showed it all too well.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Ye USA lost in Afghanistan ( Taliban now rules the country), and the murican backed Kurds are about to get kicked out of Syria because again USA is not doing but talking after promising to support them.

Correct, the US withdrew from Afghanistan after 20 years, because the Taliban was fighting a defensive conflict on its home turf. The USSR faced the same issue. However unlike the Taliban, Russia cannot sustain such a conflict for 20 years. It left Afghanistan after 15,000 dead soldiers and 9 years of conflict (America suffered about 2,000 in 20 years for comparison), it has about 115,000 dead now in less than a year in Ukraine. This is absolutely unsustainable for Russia, and only hastens the inevitable demographic collapse Russia will soon experience.

Now lets go all the way back to Vietnam...

Once again, a people willing to fight for their own country. Here the US is supporting the defender, if anything it's more akin to the US's successful support of the Mujahideen against the Soviets.

If any lesson to be learned here is that if you're dumb enough to ally yourself w murica you're going to get screwed (genuinely feel bad for the average Ukranian Joe right now), Ukraine will get defeated absolutely...

Yeah sure buddy, any minute now Russia will win. Just one more Russian retreat and victory will be at hand. Just 3 more days.. err.. weeks.. err... months.. err.. years! 3 more years. Yeah.

Don't think Russia is interested in the Ukranian parts of Ukraine as there would be too much resistance from every (few million) average Ukranian Joe.

That's all of Ukraine.

And probably w little resistance from population as it's majority pro-russian/ethnically Russian. Only resistance will come from US/NATO led Ukranian armed forces.

Partisan activity and new graveyards popping up in most of the occupied territory suggets otherwise.

[Ludicus]

War in Ukraine: 'We're seeing the 21st-century version of the battle of Verdun-Le Monde.

In a presidential palace plunged into darkness, Andriy Yermak, the powerful chief of staff to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, welcomed Le Monde late on the evening of Thursday, January 12. In the vast building, sandbags were stacked along the corridors. At the foot of the stairs, bulletproof vests were stored in each office, and several rooms had their doors sealed to limit the risk of an attack.
The situation is difficult, very difficult even. We're seeing the 21^st-century version of the battle of Verdun in Bakhmut and Soledar. The fighting has been tough for months, but our soldiers are managing to hold their positions [after this interview was published, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed the capture of Soledar, but the Ukrainians deny this]

The battle for Soledar is over,
CNN journalists say to have witnessed organised retreat of of Ukrainian Forces from Soledar

A camera crew of the CNN television network stated that they witnessed an organised pullback of Ukrainian defenders from the city of Soledar on Friday, 13 January.

The GOP's shift against supporting Ukraine hits a new milestone-Washington Post

A new CBS News/YouGov poll this week — the first to test the issue since Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke before Congress in December — is the latest to illustrate that drift. And despite Zelensky’s plea for American resolve, it shows that a slight majority of Republicans — 52 percent to 48 percent — want their member of Congress to oppose further Ukraine funding.
… What the polls have also shown is more pessimism among Republicans about Ukraine’s ability to win the war and more desire to make concessions to Russia in the name of ending it.
The Chicago Council poll offered respondents a choice between supporting Ukraine for as long as it took and urging a deal “even if that means Ukraine will lose some territory.” Republicans preferred the latter by 63 percent to 33 percent. That’s a reversal from November, when they favored the as-long-as-it-takes option by 50 percent to 46 percent.
Congress delayed the next debate over this issue by sending $45 billion during the lame-duck session. But whenever this debate comes around again, it could be one of the most substantial and potentially divisive ones we’ll see over the next two years, with enormous real-world consequences.

Ukraine defence minister: We are a de facto member of Nato

De facto, not de jure (by law)

And yet, there are those who deny it.

A few years ago (2015) , President Buhari Comes to Washington - Atlantic Council

Nigeria’s war on Boko Haram will be at the top of the agenda when US President Barack Obama meets his Nigerian counterpart Muhammadu Buhari at the White House July 20, says the Atlantic Council’s J. Peter Pham.

Eight years later, African countries are publicly concerned about the massive transfer of weapons destined for Ukraine to jihadists in the Sahel or to Boko Haram. Tap the Google Translate icon to translate, Buhari : les armes utilisées en Ukraine pénètrent dans les ...

Le conflit en Ukraine a entraîné la prolifération d'armes dans les pays du bassin du lac Tchad, qui sont livrées aux groupes terroristes qui opèrent dans la région. C'est ce qu'a déclaré le président nigérian Muhammadu Buhari, lors du 16e Sommet ordinaire des chefs d'État et de gouvernement de la Commission du bassin du lac Tchad (CBLT) qui s’est tenu à Abuja, la capitale du Nigeria

[Peresvet]

Ukraine defence minister: We are a de facto member of Nato

If NATO entered the war, which I would like, the russian army would be destroyed within a few days. And it is high time to put an end to putin's terrorism in Ukraine.

[conon394]

Eight years later, African countries are publicly concerned about the massive transfer of weapons destined for Ukraine to jihadists in the Sahel or to Boko Haram. Tap the Google Translate icon to translate, Buhari : les armes utilisées en Ukraine pénètrent dans les ...

Not much in the way of any specifics there Ludicus if you going to make a backhanded criticism of Ukraine as corrupt and not worth helping show me some real data.

A few years ago (2015) , President Buhari Comes to Washington - Atlantic Council

And if Nigeria could pull itself together and run a not massively corrupt dysfunctional state say comparable to Rwanda or Botswana US aid would likely be useful for rooting what would likely be a fairly dead end group. As far as I know US aid via central command vs BH has not wavered. I mean partly because I suspect Trump never realized it was occurring but otherwise I have not seen any indication US cooperation has altered under Biden. The locals in some cases have turned to Russia and Wagner more like because they are a lot less careful on when and where to use violence (re Mali) but Russia might be a tad busy now as well.


Also you pointily avoided my question you cited the poll answer about support for a costumes union with Russia in the Crimea before the annexation many times but you have yet to answer if you think the people polled realize how much better off Poland is starting from the same base line economically as Ukraine (or 95% of Russia) for being in the EU and NATO.